Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Obama Poised To Win 2012 Election With 303 Electoral Votes: The Signal Forecast
Yahoo- The Signal ^ | 2-16-2012 | David Rothschild & Chris Wilson

Posted on 02/16/2012 5:38:08 PM PST by blam

Obama Poised To Win 2012 Election With 303 Electoral Votes: The Signal Forecast

By David Rothschild & Chris Wilson
The Signal
Feburary 16, 2012

With fewer than nine months to go before Election Day, The Signal predicts that Barack Obama will win the presidential contest with 303 electoral votes to the Republican nominee's 235.

How do we know? We don't, of course. Campaigns and candidates evolve, and elections are dynamic events with more variables than can reasonably be distilled in an equation. But the data--based on a prediction engine created by Yahoo! scientists--suggest a second term is likely for the current president. This model does not use polls or prediction markets to directly gauge what voters are thinking. Instead, it forecasts the results of the Electoral College based on past elections, economic indicators, measures of state ideology, presidential approval ratings, incumbency, and a few other politically agnostic factors.

We'll dip into what the model says in a moment, but first a note about models in general: there are a lot of them, from complex equations generated by nerdy academics (like the team at The Signal) to funny coincidences like the Redskins Rule, which holds that the incumbent party keeps the White House if Washington's football team wins its last home game. (This is true in 17 of the last 18 elections!) Every year, some of these models are right and some are wrong, and the difference is often just luck. As a result, models get a bad rap as being very good at predicting the past and lousy at predicting the future.


The following chart shows our predictions for each state in the general election, based on this model


(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: corruption; election; fraud; lyingmedia
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-53 next last
To: Boogieman

Nebraska will go solid GOP.
Iowa will too.

21 posted on 02/16/2012 6:05:28 PM PST by Eric in the Ozarks (Beware the Sweater Vest)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: blam

January 20th, 1980 - Carter is now ahead of Reagan by a massive 66-30 percent.

It's all over for the rats except for the crying, cheating and recounts.

22 posted on 02/16/2012 6:07:32 PM PST by Caipirabob (I say we take off and Newt the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam
While Democrats can take heart from the fact that no truly viable candidate has emerged from the GOP, it's clear that "Hope and Change" will not be sufficient to rally the electoral troops for Obama again in 2012.

Yes there is a sort of civil war going on in the GOP but at the end of the day I think most conservatives will vote AB0.
When the dust settles and we have a nominee, people will conclude that

A) No matter who the nominee is (even Mittens), he'll have to face the voters in 2016. That will act as a restraint.
Not so with Zer0. Nothing will keep his Marxist impulses in check

B) We know what an absolute incompetent and dangerous fool 0bama is, Even Jimmy Carter would be a step up.

I have to believe that once we settle on a nominee people will rally around and support him.

23 posted on 02/16/2012 6:07:53 PM PST by YankeeReb
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: SatinDoll

RE: It is highly doubtful Obama will win Washington

A state that will vote for a legislature and a Governor that legalizes gay marriage WILL go for Obama. I just hope I’m wrong.

24 posted on 02/16/2012 6:11:55 PM PST by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: SatinDoll

I’m from Chicago. He will still win Illinois, but he is not well-liked even here. The rank & file, blue collar white democrats in the city mostly despise him. The progressive hipsters hate him for not living up to the progressive messiah myth that they bought into and, although they will still vote for him, 99% have taken the Obama bumper stickers off their Priuses (Prii?). These are people who drove around with Gore/Lieberman stickers AND Kerry/Edwards stickers until Bammy’s inauguration. The collar county moderates are hoping Romney gets the nod so they can vote for their golden boy, but they would vote for Palin at this point, and just deny it to their Lib friends.

Democrat voter enthusiasm is low, and so turnout will be low, unless Obama is able to really rally their support between now and November. The only thing we really have to worry about, is nominating a candidate that will drive Republican enthusiasm even lower.

25 posted on 02/16/2012 6:12:08 PM PST by Boogieman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: blam

WOW! They’re using MY MODEL. How the He!! am I not getting paid for this?

Basically here’s what these guys are doing (I haven’t read the article so I can’t tell their method but we have the same numbers for IA & FL and I suspect the others as well)

Look at 2004 votes, 2008 votes, determine voter increase/decrease, determine the share of vote the challenger that lost in 2008 needs to realistically claim in 2012. Compares to primary votes also.

I uploaded IA a while back before the IA caucus and predicted the following result:

GOP Nominee 739,990 48.31%
Obama 791,813 51.69%

Here’s the Google doc (the one people complained about the color coding back in December. Numbers were on the 2nd tab)
for Obama and Republican Nominee

I also did one of these models for FL. It had

GOP Nominee 4,734,395 /51.44%
Obama 4,469,730 /48.56%

Attachment here: (results on 2nd tab scroll down to the 100% part where it says Obama and Republican)

How do I get a job doing this stuff?

I have one for SC, I’ll have to add the numbers up and see if I got those percentages too.

26 posted on 02/16/2012 6:15:59 PM PST by parksstp (I pick Rick! (If he's good enough for Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, he's good enough for me))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

How does odds of Obama winning go from 38 % in Fl to 52 % in Virginia and nothing in between?

that is a 14 point spread.....the model is complete BS....

Plus I don’t think Obama is going to win VA,OH.or PA

27 posted on 02/16/2012 6:16:23 PM PST by Popman (America is squandering its wealth on riotous living, war, and welfare.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: italianquaker
"tonight I enjoyed a nice dinner with Elvis and he said that mr obama will lose "

Another outstanding model.

28 posted on 02/16/2012 6:17:36 PM PST by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Secret Agent Man

Since 1960... 23rd Amendment

“Section 1. The District constituting the seat of Government of the United States shall appoint in such manner as the Congress may direct:
A number of electors of President and Vice President equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives in Congress to which the District would be entitled if it were a State, but in no event more than the least populous State; they shall be in addition to those appointed by the States, but they shall be considered, for the purposes of the election of President and Vice President, to be electors appointed by a State; and they shall meet in the District and perform such duties as provided by the twelfth article of amendment.”

29 posted on 02/16/2012 6:19:13 PM PST by Boogieman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Bryanw92
They can try that “buy by the liter” trick again like they tried in the late 70’s at some gas stations. Obama voters are stupid enough to fall for that.

Price it by the quart. That way gas will be under a $1. Hey, these kinds of number tricks work with employment, why not gas prices. Too many people unemployed; no they're not in the labor market. Gas too high; price it in quarts, ounces, or whatever measure to get the number down.

30 posted on 02/16/2012 6:19:19 PM PST by 6SJ7 (Meh.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Boogieman

It is hard to beat the MSM and money.

31 posted on 02/16/2012 6:20:20 PM PST by Big Horn (Rebuild the GOP to a conservative party)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

There will be a referendum about homosexual marriage in the State of Washington. Guaranteed.

The majority of voters here are against it and the referendum will prevail in having that legislation eliminated. Seattle, Tacoma, Vanocuver are heavily liberal; the rest of the state, no.

32 posted on 02/16/2012 6:21:46 PM PST by SatinDoll (NO FOREIGN NATIONALS AS OUR U.S.A. PRESIDENT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: blam
The New Black ACORN Election Fraud Enforcers
33 posted on 02/16/2012 6:21:54 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the fascists.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: parksstp

If you ever create a ping list, please include me. I find it interesting that even this lib wishful thinking scenario the GOP picks up Fla, NC, and Mo. How do you score it?

34 posted on 02/16/2012 6:23:23 PM PST by MattinNJ (I will not vote for Romney)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Boogieman

Stupid amendment....!

35 posted on 02/16/2012 6:24:04 PM PST by Secret Agent Man (I'd like to tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: blam

Although a lot can go wrong, I think that predicting Virginia, Ohio, and Indiana for Obama is suspect. Plus, this scenario has Pennsylvania going for Obama when we don’t yet know how Rick Santorum will figure into the mix.

36 posted on 02/16/2012 6:27:04 PM PST by Engraved-on-His-hands
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

The good news. We have 9 months to stop Bacrock.

37 posted on 02/16/2012 6:27:42 PM PST by Darren McCarty (Rick Santorum in the primary)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam
Note that in, this model, fully seven states conceded to Obama are within the statistical margin-of-error (2.1%).

Only one state conceded to the GOP is within that margin (Florida).

38 posted on 02/16/2012 6:30:10 PM PST by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA: Ignorance On Parade)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

I live in the great state of VA...
and the last two elections, we went CONSERVATIVE big time...
so I always look to see how they “predict” VA will go...
and they always give O’bummer the edge...
ain’t gunna happen this time!

39 posted on 02/16/2012 6:38:03 PM PST by matginzac
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

Since polls have been wrong by up to 25% with two weeks remaining we may as well just give up.

Pray for Anmerica

40 posted on 02/16/2012 6:41:09 PM PST by bray (More Batting Practice for the Bambino)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-53 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794 is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson