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Obama Poised To Win 2012 Election With 303 Electoral Votes: The Signal Forecast
Yahoo- The Signal ^ | 2-16-2012 | David Rothschild & Chris Wilson

Posted on 02/16/2012 5:38:08 PM PST by blam

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To: SeekAndFind

I’ll challenge the WA vote - Gregoire had to cheat to win re-election...
and the IL vote - isn’t Kirk from IL? If he is, that puts IL in the “maybe” column.
I’m not an analyst but throw this out for discussion...

41 posted on 02/16/2012 6:42:21 PM PST by matginzac
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To: MattinNJ

We have FL, NC, and MO

IA is a tough sell because between 2004-2012, the GOP voters are leaving for jobs elsewhere. There’s not as many votes in the West or around the Central part to offset the East. In terms of our GOP candidates, Santorum is probably the strongest in that state, it’s just a matter of whether there are enough voters or not.

NC is an easy pick up for the GOP. McCain ran several points behind Bush in traditional conservative areas as well as the suburbs and he still lost by only 17,000. All the GOP nominee has to do is improve on the 08 numbers in the reliable red areas OR run better in the suburbs. If they do both, NC is a 5%+ win. Plus it doesn’t hurt that Bev Perdue has screwed the NC Dem Party there. If it wasn’t for the DNC in Charlotte, they would be ceding NC without much play.

MO is still GOP. There’s still enough voters to offset the liberal areas in KC/STL/Boone. Senate race also helps.

As you can tell from the model they have, OH and VA are by no means safe for Obama. They’re going off all the swing voters from Loudon County and the outer Nova burbs won’t be near as strong this time. Not a VA that had the GOP sweep in 2010. Obama’s in big trouble here.

OH is always a toss-up. I have no idea.

FL is interesting. One of the few areas McCain actually improved on quite significantly over Bush was in the Panhandle. Obama actually only ran about 1% better than Kerry in the blue areas. Obama won FL by almost breaking even in Jacksonville, and performing strongly along the I-4 corridor and evening things in SW FL. Interestingly, these are the areas Romney won pretty handedly in the FL primary. Easiest assumption is that everyone expects a Rubio or West to be on the ticket and the fact the GOP convention is in Tampa. FL leans slight GOP and probably will continue to do so right up to Election day.

Someone just mentioned flipping those two states makes it 266-272. That’s correct and what most people see. It’s finding that last state that’s difficult. The Romney people want to target NH. The Santorum people want to target the Midwest (PA, MI, WI, IA, and CO). Not exactly sure what state the Gingrich people are looking at. That’s the challenge for 2012, finding the last state.

Which is why Rubio is considered the heavy favorite for VP. He plays in FL and the SW. Santorum/Rubio would be pretty formidable, putting all the battlegrounds in play with Union and Hispanic voters except maybe NH.

In either case, it will be close (unless our guy starts winning all the battlegrounds). Because I’ve looked at the demographics and know where the voters are, I cringe when I here people on here say “so and so can’t win” or “Obama will win in a landslide”.

42 posted on 02/16/2012 6:43:53 PM PST by parksstp (I pick Rick! (If he's good enough for Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, he's good enough for me))
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To: SatinDoll
It is highly doubtful Obama will win Washington and Oregon states. I’m from this region and he is despised.

Being in NJ here, I hope you are right. It is uplifting hearing that some traditional democrat-voting states aren't going to drink the Kool-Aide this year. We simply can't afford another four years of Obamanomics.

43 posted on 02/16/2012 6:45:26 PM PST by Go Gordon (President Poverty - President Downgrade - President Food Stamp - President Pantywaist - B. H. Obama)
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To: Boogieman
You forgot Minnesota. They voted for Mondale in ‘84 man! No way are we picking that up, even against Obama.

That was almost 30 uears ago. The democrats have caused a lot of damage since then. Keep the hope up...

44 posted on 02/16/2012 6:48:36 PM PST by Go Gordon (President Poverty - President Downgrade - President Food Stamp - President Pantywaist - B. H. Obama)
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To: Big Horn

True, but it is also true that you can only fool some of the people some of the time...

The longer the media continues it’s charade, and the more shamelessly they present a skewed version of reality that is favorable to the libs, the more they stretch their credibility. They could slowly heat the frog in the pot for decades, but in order to prop up Obama they are having to turn the heat up dangerously close to the boiling point.

45 posted on 02/16/2012 7:06:50 PM PST by Boogieman
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To: Engraved-on-His-hands
The table has Indiana going for the Republicans.

Even assuming their information is pretty accurate, the Republicans would only need to win the 3 states where Obama's margin is narrowest--Virginia, Ohio, and New Hampshire--to get to 270 electoral votes and win the election.

46 posted on 02/16/2012 7:16:50 PM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: Go Gordon
Minnesota went for Mondale by a few thousand votes--and it is his home state.

They made up for it by voting against him for Senator later.

47 posted on 02/16/2012 7:20:17 PM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: blam

Obama may only win a ride involving some tar and feathers IMO.

48 posted on 02/16/2012 7:21:56 PM PST by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: blam

Obama loses VA & OH giving GOP 266 EV. Then we need 4 more votes NV would do it but I think we’ll get WI and maybe PA too if Santorum is the nominee.

49 posted on 02/16/2012 7:28:25 PM PST by Mike Darancette (Romney just makes me tired all over.)
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To: Bryanw92

Someone (H.L.Mencken, I think) once said “Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public”.

50 posted on 02/16/2012 7:30:03 PM PST by pankot
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To: blam

They’re giving both PA and OH to zerobummer, and by RCH margins.

51 posted on 02/16/2012 7:35:01 PM PST by j_tull ("I may make you feel, but I can't make you think.")
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To: parksstp

Great analysis. How about Governor Martinez from New Mexico? Would she help with the Southwest and Hispanics? Love the idea of West though. I amazed at the strength of our bench. Rubio and The Virginia Governor are extremely impressive front tier candidates with Haley and Walker as good VP choices-if we survive another 4 years of Obama . I think gas prices will be his undoing.

52 posted on 02/16/2012 10:55:37 PM PST by MattinNJ (I will not vote for Romney)
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To: blam
When you see pieces like this think PSY-OPS. These are psychological operations designed to demoralize us.
The conditions in America are far worse today than when we crushed them in 2010.

What did Obama do with the gasoline price problem? How about his problem with faith based organizations?
This list insists Obama wins New Hampshire? New Hampshire saw the biggest state level turn around in anybody’s memory - GOP picked up about 300 seats.
When you see lines like that the whole chart becomes suspect.

53 posted on 02/17/2012 5:38:10 AM PST by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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