Based On My Model....it says that Jim Robinson will win an unprecedent term as president of the US when most citizens of each state write-in his name on their ballot.
Now, someone has to go refute this claim, eh?
(The algorithms that are driving my (model) prediction are copyrighted and cannot be revealed.)
Maybe they can use their modeling skills to come up with the one mutual fund that will reliably beat the market every year.
San FRan Chinese restaurant visit today. :-]
I wonder what “The Signal” was forecasting 9 months before the 2010 election.
I don't know about the rest of you but this seems to have been the MSM's mantra coming off the holiday season (which BTW were the best in 4 years).
My model tells me that Obama will only win 16:
Puerto Rico (should we include this?)
Virginia is a red herring but the GOP will probably take Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and possibly Nevada.
Just going off my gut, if we have a decent nominee (doubtful maybe, but we can dream), then Obama won’t win Virginia or Ohio. That alone changes the total here to R-266 D-272.
Then, we’d just need to pick up a state that Bush won in 2004, like Nebraska, Nevada, Colorado, or New Mexico and it would be over.
All of that depends on who our nominee is, and without knowing that, my predictions are about as valuable as this model, which is not very valuable at all.
He won’t win Wisconsin this year. No way in hell.
And since when does DC count? They aren’t a state, they should have zero electoral votes.
tonight I enjoyed a nice dinner with Elvis and he said that mr obama will lose
It's all over for the rats except for the crying, cheating and recounts.
WOW! They’re using MY MODEL. How the He!! am I not getting paid for this?
Basically here’s what these guys are doing (I haven’t read the article so I can’t tell their method but we have the same numbers for IA & FL and I suspect the others as well)
Look at 2004 votes, 2008 votes, determine voter increase/decrease, determine the share of vote the challenger that lost in 2008 needs to realistically claim in 2012. Compares to primary votes also.
I uploaded IA a while back before the IA caucus and predicted the following result:
GOP Nominee 739,990 48.31%
Obama 791,813 51.69%
Here’s the Google doc (the one people complained about the color coding back in December. Numbers were on the 2nd tab)
for Obama and Republican Nominee
I also did one of these models for FL. It had
GOP Nominee 4,734,395 /51.44%
Obama 4,469,730 /48.56%
Attachment here: (results on 2nd tab scroll down to the 100% part where it says Obama and Republican)
How do I get a job doing this stuff?
I have one for SC, I’ll have to add the numbers up and see if I got those percentages too.
How does odds of Obama winning go from 38 % in Fl to 52 % in Virginia and nothing in between?
that is a 14 point spread.....the model is complete BS....
Plus I don’t think Obama is going to win VA,OH.or PA
Although a lot can go wrong, I think that predicting Virginia, Ohio, and Indiana for Obama is suspect. Plus, this scenario has Pennsylvania going for Obama when we don’t yet know how Rick Santorum will figure into the mix.
The good news. We have 9 months to stop Bacrock.
Only one state conceded to the GOP is within that margin (Florida).
I live in the great state of VA...
and the last two elections, we went CONSERVATIVE big time...
so I always look to see how they “predict” VA will go...
and they always give O’bummer the edge...
ain’t gunna happen this time!
Since polls have been wrong by up to 25% with two weeks remaining we may as well just give up.
Pray for Anmerica