Just going off my gut, if we have a decent nominee (doubtful maybe, but we can dream), then Obama won’t win Virginia or Ohio. That alone changes the total here to R-266 D-272.
Then, we’d just need to pick up a state that Bush won in 2004, like Nebraska, Nevada, Colorado, or New Mexico and it would be over.
All of that depends on who our nominee is, and without knowing that, my predictions are about as valuable as this model, which is not very valuable at all.
Nebraska will go solid GOP.
Iowa will too.