I’m from Chicago. He will still win Illinois, but he is not well-liked even here. The rank & file, blue collar white democrats in the city mostly despise him. The progressive hipsters hate him for not living up to the progressive messiah myth that they bought into and, although they will still vote for him, 99% have taken the Obama bumper stickers off their Priuses (Prii?). These are people who drove around with Gore/Lieberman stickers AND Kerry/Edwards stickers until Bammy’s inauguration. The collar county moderates are hoping Romney gets the nod so they can vote for their golden boy, but they would vote for Palin at this point, and just deny it to their Lib friends.
Democrat voter enthusiasm is low, and so turnout will be low, unless Obama is able to really rally their support between now and November. The only thing we really have to worry about, is nominating a candidate that will drive Republican enthusiasm even lower.
It is hard to beat the MSM and money.