WOW! They’re using MY MODEL. How the He!! am I not getting paid for this?
Basically here’s what these guys are doing (I haven’t read the article so I can’t tell their method but we have the same numbers for IA & FL and I suspect the others as well)
Look at 2004 votes, 2008 votes, determine voter increase/decrease, determine the share of vote the challenger that lost in 2008 needs to realistically claim in 2012. Compares to primary votes also.
I uploaded IA a while back before the IA caucus and predicted the following result:
GOP Nominee 739,990 48.31%
Obama 791,813 51.69%
Here’s the Google doc (the one people complained about the color coding back in December. Numbers were on the 2nd tab)
for Obama and Republican Nominee
I also did one of these models for FL. It had
GOP Nominee 4,734,395 /51.44%
Obama 4,469,730 /48.56%
Attachment here: (results on 2nd tab scroll down to the 100% part where it says Obama and Republican)
How do I get a job doing this stuff?
I have one for SC, I’ll have to add the numbers up and see if I got those percentages too.
If you ever create a ping list, please include me. I find it interesting that even this lib wishful thinking scenario the GOP picks up Fla, NC, and Mo. How do you score it?