Intrade Republican Nominee Odds

Intrade ^ | 2/19/2012 | Intrade Oddsmakers

[WPaCon]

Mitt Romney--71.4%

Rick Santorum--14.3%

New Gingrich--3.9%

Ron Paul--2.6%

Jeb Bush--3.5%

Mitch Daniels--1.0%

Chris Christie--1.2%

Paul Ryan--0.6%

Sarah Palin--0.5%

Mike Huckabee--0.2%

John Thune--0.4%

Bobby Jindal--0.2%

Marco Rubio--0.3%

Colin Powell--0.1%

Rudy Giuliani--0.1%

Rick Perry--0.1%

John Huntsman--0.1%

Buddy Roemer--0.1%

Michele Bachmann--0.1%

Herman Cain--0.1%

Gary Johnson--0.1%

Tim Pawlenty--0.1%

Tom Coburn--0.1%

John Bolton--0.1%

George Pataki--0.1%

Thad McCotter--0.1%

Jim DeMint--0.1%

Rand Paul--0.1%

Donald Trump--0.1%

Eric Cantor--0.1%

Joe Scarborough--0.1%

Lindsay Graham--0.1%

David Petraeus--0.1%

Roy Moore--0.1%

Mike Pence--0.1%

Haley Barbour--0.1%

Dick Cheney--0.1%

Judd Gregg--0.1%

Scott Brown--0.1%

Michael Bloomberg--0.1%

Charlie Crist--0.1%

Fred Thompson--0.1%

John Kasich--0.1%

Bob Corker--0.1%

Joe Lieberman--0.1%

Lou Dobbs--0.1%

Mark Sanford--0.1%

Carley Fiorina--0.1%

Meg Whitman--0.1%

Stanley McChrystal--0.1%

Clarence Thomas--0.1%

Allen West--0.1%

Other--0.3%

[bobzeetwin]

RNC spokesman says chances of brokered convention same as ‘space alien attack’

Space alien odds from New Mexico poll or NY poll?

[hosepipe]

What if the handicapper is a RINO...?
RINO see things in guarded delusion else they wouldnt be RINOs..

[CatherineofAragon]

President Corker, LOL?:

[Vigilanteman]

The electoral math, so far, still shows Santorum doing way better than Gingrich.

Seven reasons for Rick Santorum

1. Who has won the most states without the benefit of their own money, last election's organization or a billionaire casino sugar daddy?
   
2. Who is everybody's second choice when he isn't their first?
   
3. Who can get both the Romney people and the Gingrich people, who hate each other, to vote for him?
   
4. Who has the best record on immigration?
   
5. Who has the best plan for repealing ObamaCare? And is the only GOP candidate who didn't help write or approve legislation which helped spawn this fiasco?
   
6. Who has the best plan for expanding the American economy and strengthening American families?
   
7. Who is the closest thing we have to the "generic Republican" which polls show consistently beating Obama and is most likely to make the election about Obama's sorry record rather than about himself?

[Strategerist]

What if the handicapper is a RINO...?

There is no "handicapper" at Intrade; the odds are reflective of people's bets, automatically.

Predictive markets (where people put up their own real money) can be remarkably accurate, so much so that they have been examined by the CIA, etc.

The overwhelming majority of people are judging that Romney ends up winning the nomination, despite Santorum being ahead in the polls at the moment.

You can of course go ahead and bet lots of money on Santorum, if you wish, if you think the market is wrong. Real money tends to make people think real long and hard if they are engaging in wishful thinking, however.

[sodpoodle]

Newt and Kasich have a good history of working together.

Could be a great ticket!!

[Engraved-on-His-hands]

A few random thoughts:

1. I agree that the odds for Romney are too high, and the odds for Santorum are too low.

2. I don’t think that we will have a brokered convention. I think that either Romney or Santorum (hopefully Santorum) will win it outright.

3. I think that, if we do have a brokered convention, that choosing someone who has not been making preparations for the Presidency will cause us to have a weaker President than picking someone who has already thrown their hat in the ring. (In other words, Perry, Cain, and Bachmann might be ready to roll, but even good conservative candidates who haven’t been making preparations might not be ready.)

4. I find the list of “brokered convention” possibilities interesting. Although some are objectionable (e.g., Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, Mark Sanford), many of them I find downright stomach turning (e.g., Colin Powell, Rudy Giuliani, John Huntsman, Gary Johnson, George Pataki, Lindsay Graham, Judd Gregg, Scott Brown, Michael Bloomberg, Charlie Crist, Joe Lieberman, Meg Whitman).

On the other hand, there are some who are the “what might have been’s” (e.g., Paul Ryan, Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal, Marco Rubio, Jim DeMint, Mike Pence, John Kasich, Allen West).

Plus this one: Clarence Thomas. Yes, that is a pipe dream, but I would vote for him in a nanosecond.

[Clintonfatigued]

If Romney loses the Michigan primary, look for these number to change dramatically.

[Strategerist]

A brokered convention can’t happen, because Newt will drop out (probably sooner rather than later) and Paul delegates = Romney delegates.

[Semper911]

Newt will drop out

Disagree. He is too stubborn to bail. And he knows if he stays in, the chances of a brokered convention will keep his hopes alive.

I am disgusted with this entire primary season. How the hell did we get here -- with no electable conservative in sight?

At this point we need a conservative rock star -- someone the whole country could get excited about. Rick bleeping Santorum is not going to get people to the polls in November.

Sarah, How's your schedule look for late August?

[Lexinom]

Indeed, I can see Tea Party conservatives rallying around.... Charlie Crist.

[supercat]

The moderate with almost no chance is trading at 71% even after his recent implosion

McCain should have had no chance last time. It's clear that those in control of the media and party apparatus are trying to foist another loser on us. It's far from clear that they won't succeed.

[MARTIAL MONK]

Dirk Kempthorne is fixin’ to surge.

[WPaCon]

I noticed that the list had Petraeus and McChrystal from the military.

Most here have been critical of Petraeus’ softness on Islam and McChrystal’s judgment in allowing the Rolling Stone writer with him.

He’s not on this list, but what is the general feeling towards Odierno?

[napscoordinator]

I am disgusted with this entire primary season.

Funny. I could not have asked for a better primary season. This one FINALLY is going EXACTLY the way I want it to. If they all could be this way, we would be in great shape.

[Museum Twenty]

Hello —

While I'm pushing for Palin-Perry to emerge from a brokered convention, I fear they'll choose the one man not named in the list:

John McCain.

And this time, they'll give him the Veep he really wanted:

Joe Lieberman.

Yep. The GOPe is capable of it.

McCain-Lieberman 2012.

The GOP-establishment's way of fixing what they think they did wrong the last time.

May the Good Lord save us all.

PS: If we get to a brokered convention, pick Palin-Perry 2012!!! Let's give ourselves a Fighting Chance!

[StAnDeliver]

"In fact, these odds are seem to be very inaccurate"

Uh, you're lucky to find anyone on any exchange at the moment willing to lay against Mittens. I don't quite get it either, just sayin'...

[StAnDeliver]

"What if the handicapper is a RINO...?"

Exchanges are head-to-head, with the house taking the vig. Not possible every punter is a RINO.

[hosepipe]

[ Real money tends to make people think real long and hard if they are engaging in wishful thinking, however. ]

Voting for Ronaldus Maximus was a long shot and wishful thinking as well..
Voting for Bob “welfare PimP” Dole and George “read my lips” Bush were NOT long shots against Bill Clintoon...
They lost..

If you have no values or principles it is easy to pick who you vote for.. you pick the front runner..
Willard is Obamas Plan “B” anyways.. and Santo is Obamas Plan “C”..

The democrats have pretty much trashed all the infrastructure systems in the US... They are willing to let a republican be elected to take the blame..
AND he will.. America does not even want a conservative as President..

Americas schools from kinder-garden to graduate schools were and are processing stone socialists for decades.. and still are daily.. Its starts and ends THERE.. The filthy word of democracy has been made a Holy word.. Democracy has always been Mob Rule by mobsters.. A siren song repeated over and over again, warping everything political..

Even republicans mouth this filthy concept(democracy) as Holy..
The American Constitution does not have any version of this word in it.. ON PURPOSE..

---

Democracy is the road to socialism. -Karl Marx

Democracy is indispensable to socialism. The goal of socialism is communism. -V.I. Lenin

The meaning of peace is the absence of opposition to socialism .-Karl Marx

[Strategerist]

I disagree; both Santorum and Palin will get people to the polls in November.

However, in both cases it’s going to mostly be Obama voters.