Skip to comments.Gingrich: Michigan is do-or-die for Romney
Posted on 02/20/2012 9:46:09 AM PST by Jim Robinson
click here to read article
The Newt is right—as always. Romney Must take his home state or go home.
we will see if newt is a man who walks his talk if he loses georgia....lol i made a funny
LOL. Well, I reckon Romney can always claim Massachusetts as his home state.
I'll take the latter.
Actually, you’re a jerk, because it’s obviously you didn’t read the article.
If Romney’s “home state” is Michigan, then Newt’s home state is Pennsylvania, where he was born. Newt now lives and votes in Virginia. Is newt going to win Pa. or Va.?
Michigan is for sale, and Romney has the cash to tell the most lies.
I belive Romney will win in Michigan. I know that no one at FR wants to hear that. But I’m a betting man and my instincts tell me it will be Romney.
MI is clearly Romney’s home-state, at least he speaks like that is what it is drawing on his roots, and his campaign ads showing him drivingin an auto and speaking of his love for Detroit. Gingrich is absolutely right on target. But the rich irony of it all is that if Gingrich stays on the MI ballot, through his 10% polling, he may be the very one to hand MI to Romney.
Willard the Lib is going to lose Michigan AND Arizona to Rick. Yep, I went THERE!
15% in Arizona more likely to vote for McCain endorsed candidate, 30% less likely. Unpopular with base
Santorum winning Tea Party, Evangelicals, ‘very conservative’ in AZ
Big thing to watch in AZ: can Newt hold his 16%? Weakly committed supporters could leave for Santorum
Santorum (+34 at 61/27) is more popular in AZ than Romney (+24 at 58/34)
Romney leads Santorum by just 3 in Arizona, 36-33. Gingrich at 16%, Paul at 9%
-publicpolicypolling tweets this morn..
Very quick romneybotzot.
And you’re a retread mittbott troll.
As a matter of fact, new polling today shows Rick up by NINE in Michigan over Willard the Lib if Newt drops out.
Also, because this is a race for delegates, it needs to be stressed that a small Romney victory in MI alone may not be enough in the delegate count.
MI allocates delegates in a WTA by CD format (2 delegates per each CD to the winner of that CD) and 1 delegate each to the top two finishers of the statewide vote.
What this means is that Santorum can still grab half of Michigan’s delegates by winning 7 CD’s. Right now, he is favored in 9 of them and even if Romney takes the lead, odds are good that Santorum will still get 6-7 of these. I have (MI-1,2,3,4,6,7,8,10,and 11) as Santorum’s strongest areas where he is likely to win regardless of whether or not Romney beats him in the statewide vote. A 15-15 delegate split is still as good as a win when all is added up to what really matters.
How many home states does this fraud have?
But wait—there’s more!
This valuable consolation/parting gift, suitable for framing, can be yours for the low, low etc. etc.
(I would stop right here if I were you. But do what you want. You know you will anyway. Can’t say I didn’t warn you.)
You looked, didn’t you.
And because some folks mentioned GA, I’ll cover the rules on that again.
There’s a misconception that a Gingrich victory in GA would win him all 76 delegates. While the Superdelegates in GA are bound to the statewide results, one has to win 50% in all the CD’s and statewide to take them all.
Current polling suggests that Gingrich is ahead in all of GA’s 14 CD’s, but not over the 50% hump to claim all three delegates allocated to each CD. GA Delegate allocation rules state that if the CD winner doesn’t get to 50%, it’s a 2-1 delegate split between 1st and 2nd place. Santorum is projected to finish no worse than 2nd in 12 of the CD’s and Romney 2nd in no more than 2 CD’s. That would give a delegate allocation of Gingrich: 28, Santorum 12, and Romney 2
The other 31 delegates are allocated at the statewide level. If someone gets over 50% they win them all, otherwise it’s proportional. At best, Gingrich is at 40%, Santorum is at 30%, and Romney 25%. This would give a delegate allocation of Gingrich: 13, Santorum 10, and Romney 8.
As the statewide winner, Gingrich would get the 3 bound Superdelegates. Final GA Delegate Distribution would be: Gingrich 44, Santorum 22, Romney 10
Is that distribution good enough to carry on? I don’t know, I suspect the Gingrich team doesn’t like it which is why Newt’s been spending more time in GA. It’s not like I think he’s in trouble, but they desparately need to get to that 50% level to claim all 76 delegates. Otherwise, the victory may be mixed.
I too noticed he has quite a few “home” states. Let’s hope he is sent back to one of them before the Convention.
Irony abounds on Feb 28 indeed in MI & AZ.
Internals of new Arizona Republican Nomination Survey:
If the Republican candidates for President
were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Mitt Romney 41%
Rick Santorum 43% ..Wow! Thanks to McLame endorsing Rmoney, too
Perhaps the state of Despair.
Newt knows the feeling of having both the libs and the establishment (i.e. moderates) smearing him for his great work in the nineties -- and I'm sure Newt will be endorsing Rick when the time is RIGHT in 2012.
Btw, Gallup daily just out!!! Romney down 2..
Santorum 36, Romney 26!!!!!
If Romney loses the primary election in his home state of Michigan, we will see Newt rocket back to the top.
You don’t have to believe me, just remember that I said it. ;>)
Then Gingrich should urge his Michigan supporters to vote for Santorum, because Santorum is in a position to beat Romney, Gingrich isn’t.
Santorum's staying around will have the same "ironic" effect.
You see its people like you who give FReepers a bad name. We are trying to stop Romney at any cost. This is the central mission at hand. If you think why a Gingrich withdrawal will not assist this goal argue your case. Who knows you may have a point. But simply engaging in visceral stuff shows a lack of intellectual grasp on your point. Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin have all but endorsed Santorum as the last remaining viable candidate to beat Obama, and even conservative publications like The Washington Times, The American Spectator, Townhall, and National Review have come around to saying the same thing. The question for all of us is not Gingrichs politics, although that does matter, but at this stage of the game its a question of electability. To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, we got to war with what we have. And if Santorum is within reach of beating Romney in his home state, and making this a 2-person race, it befits Gingrich to strategically withdraw in MI. I would have said the same thing if the numbers were reversed in Gingrichs favor. This is not and never has been about bashing Gingrich or anyone else. It comes to down to the best options we have to defeat Romney. Your sarcasm about Santorum quitting MI as having the same “ironic” effect reveals either an ignorance of MI politics where Santorum has a strong blue-collar appeal, or worse reckless, that you are willing to risk a Romney win in MI as does the Republican Establishment. When you join a resistance you join allies to defeat a common enemy of conservatism.
Actually, youre a jerk, because its obviously you didnt read the article.
It's a perfect point. If Newt has the slightest chance of losing in GA, he should have kept his mouth shut.
This is a continuing problem with Newt.
And, If he wins the nomination, I'll vote for him...
Then I guess Jim Rob is giving his own forum a bad name as, last I heard, he's a Newt fan and probably doesn't understand why someone would be so rabidly for a lightweight like Rick.
Just who is this "we" you talk about? 99% of us want to stop Romney, but many want a warrior with an intellect as our candidate. Rick might get us to vote for him, but Newt will make us eager to cast the vote...
Thanks for the ping TOL! :-)
Being a “fan” is one thing, strategy in defeating Romney is something that reasonable and honest minds could differ. If Romney is advancing, I and many others will join the supporting troops behind him. But if, for whatever reason, he is receding and Santorum is advancing, especially in MI,and is in the cusp of a major seismic upset, do you give more ballast to Romney by casting a vote to the candidate receding in MI? If Santorum is “rabidly” lightweight, you may try telling that to the Trifecta voters in MO, CO, and MN, and educating Limbaugh and Levin on the way on why they think at this point in the game, Santorum is best to beat Obama and according to US-Gallup was about 8 points behind Obama.
Gingrich might have a smaller shot than Santorum at winning the nomination, but I think he at least stands a chance in November, and I don't think he'd drag down the rest of the ticket.
Easy call for me.
“This is a continuing problem with Newt”
If Gingrich does not win GA then it is unlikely he would go on to win much else, and I would expect him to drop out.
You are not nearly politically astute as Gingrich is. That is your problem, not his.
Your bet paid off as a ZOT.
Bet you never saw the zot coming your way.
Well, win or lose, Romney’s campaign probably doesn’t regard Michigan as a do-or-die state. Newt OTOH will have to do at least okay here. It doesn’t matter how Ron Paul does, but based on bumperstickers I see, he’ll probably come in third at least, behind Santorum and Romney.
I understand what you are saying, and why you are saying it. Just too early to choose the final horse and way too early to kill the other for meat. Polls don't always catch the true prevailing sentiment and sometimes get it way wrong; especially when getting it wrong is to the detriment of conservatives. If Newt or Santorum become irrelevant, at a time that is meaningful to the term, I'll gladly jump on the survivor's bandwagon, but I won't bury one (especially the one I think is the best, even if not making the strongest showing in the current clime) until there's no heartbeat. Keeping it a race for now will bring out the best and the worst in each and I can't fathom trying to kill one off at this time, unless it's Romney. Romney won't go away even if he loses his home state, but he can be compromised and Newt is more likely to ring the deathknell for Romney than Rick is, even if Newt eventually ends up so far out that he can't possibly win. At this stage, there is nobody on the fast track to the requisite delegates and that is why we keep hearing about the possibility of a brokered convention. I detest Romney as much as you, but I won't be blinded into a rash decision.
Exactly what I think.
If Mr, Rogers takes Michigan, it will be a good day in the neighborhood for Newt.
Santorum Should quit now and give Newt Gingrich all the votes. Gingrich would win! Michigan!
Yeah, just like Santurom gave his votes to Gingrich in Florida?
Would it have mattered, or would it have just made you feel better?
Romney = 46.4%
Gingrich+Santorum = 31.9% + 13.3% = 45.2%
It would have made a huge difference, There would be less people staying home and not voting at all, IF Santorum would have it. One total different battle field.
You are not nearly politically astute as Gingrich is.
I never sat on a couch with Nancy Pelosi.
Let's not try to deny that Newt sticks his foot in his mouth fairly often. He's brilliant. His big head is full of big ideas. And, he frequently says stupid stuff.
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