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Tied up in Michigan (Santorum slipping)
NBC/Marist poll ^ | Today | By NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Brooke Brower, and Carrie Dann

Posted on 02/22/2012 8:07:25 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP

Tied up in Michigan: New NBC/Marist poll -- Romney 37%, Santorum 35%, Paul 13%, Gingrich 8%... But NBC/Marist also has Romney with a sizable lead in Arizona – Romney 43%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 11%...

Organization is helping Romney in both states (see his early-voting/absentee advantage), but ideology is hurting him (Tea Party supporters and conservatives breaking toward Santorum)… General-election numbers: Obama leads in Michigan, but trails in Arizona… Three questions heading into tonight’s GOP debate in Arizona… It’s the 20th of the cycle, and it begins at 8:00 pm ET… And Obama’s corporate-tax plan.

Less than a week before Tuesday’s crucial GOP presidential primary in Michigan -- and before tonight’s debate in Arizona -- a new NBC/Marist poll finds Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum locked in a statistical tie in Michigan, while a separate NBC/Marist survey shows Romney comfortably leading in Arizona.

The Michigan numbers among likely Republican primary voters: Romney 37%, Santorum 35%, Paul 13%, and Gingrich 8%. The Arizona figures: Romney 43%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 16%, and Paul 11%. “Michigan is neck and neck,” says pollster Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted both surveys (Feb. 19-20).

(Excerpt) Read more at firstread.msnbc.msn.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: michigan
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*** Organization vs. momentum: What’s helping Romney in both states is organization; what’s hurting him is a lack of support from conservatives. Among those who have ALREADY voted absentee in Michigan -- 16% of likely GOP voters, according to the poll --

Romney leads Santorum, 49%-26%.But among those who HAVEN’T voted in Michigan yet, Santorum is up by one point, 37%-36%. The same is true in Arizona: Among those who have voted early or absentee in Arizona -- more than half of all likely GOP voters in the poll -- Romney leads by 30 points, 52%-22%. But his lead is just one point among those who haven’t voted yet, 34%-33%.

Call it organization vs. momentum. But while the Romney campaign’s early-voting organization is clearly helping him, a lack of support from conservatives is hurting him.

In Michigan, Santorum leads Romney among self-identified Tea Party supporters, 48%-29%, and those who describe themselves as “very conservative,” 59%-20%. Yet among those who don’t support the Tea Party, Romney is ahead by more than 20 points, 45%-24%.

The same ideological pattern is true in Arizona, although Romney performs much better with the most conservative voters there than in Michigan (thanks in part to the larger Mormon population in Arizona).

1 posted on 02/22/2012 8:07:31 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
Slipping, ROFLOL, you are really funny, Willard was suppose to win this state by a 30% margin. Instead he is sweating bullets and could lose.
2 posted on 02/22/2012 8:12:02 AM PST by org.whodat (Sorry bill, I should never have made all those jokes about you and Lewinsky, have fun.)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Debate tonight is make or break for both Romney and Santorum. Although even a slight win for Romney in one of his best states doesn’t bode well for him.


3 posted on 02/22/2012 8:13:22 AM PST by cotton1706
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
Santorum will take Michigan and Arizona. Newt will take Georgia.

Romney sucks. Can't run on issues.

4 posted on 02/22/2012 8:14:39 AM PST by b4its2late (Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I am not sure about the former.)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
Sorry to disappoint anyone who believes that Santorum has a lock on this thing. But the numbers, the fact that Romney is NOT done if he loses Michigan, Santorum’s severe lack of early campaign preparation and organization, all spell a road block for Santorum with a moat behind it. But he may take a large enough portion of the delegates to force a Brokered Convention.

If I were not so sickened at how this election is turning out and if our futures were not at stake, I would load up on Pop Corn and sit back and watch the outcome for nothing more than entertainment value.

5 posted on 02/22/2012 8:14:39 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: cotton1706
Agreed! Time for Newt to sit back and let them rip each others throats out, then step in as the adult and clear thinker who actually has a workable plan already established.

The ball is in Newt's court.

6 posted on 02/22/2012 8:18:07 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
If I were not so sickened at how this election is turning out and if our futures were not at stake

If this were true you'd be supporting anyone but Obama & Willard instead of treating the process like a high school popularity contest.

7 posted on 02/22/2012 8:20:29 AM PST by skeeter
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Just goes to show that nobody with a Biblical moral compass can win a national election in this country anymore.


8 posted on 02/22/2012 8:23:26 AM PST by Westbrook (Children do not divide your love, they multiply it.)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
LOL. The race in Michigan is a nail-biter despite the fact that it was supposed to be a cake-walk for Romney. He's been forced to outspend his opponents 10-1, he's got a vaunted state organization, and he STILL MIGHT LOSE.

And somehow, this is bad news for Santorum?

The lesson here is that Romney sucks and Newt can't get any traction outside the south. Given that Newt has basically given up on Michigan, there is absolutely no reason for a Newt supporter not to hope Santorum takes it--unless that person is PSYCHO.
9 posted on 02/22/2012 8:24:42 AM PST by Antoninus (Mitt Romney -- attempting to execute a hostile take-over of the Republican Party.)
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To: Westbrook
.


We're no longer a Christian nation ...


.
10 posted on 02/22/2012 8:26:12 AM PST by Patton@Bastogne (Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin in 2012 !)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

My parents live in Arizona, and called us last night asking who they should vote for. I told them either Newt or Santorum, though Santorum is leading, so voting for him would help consolidate behind one of the not-Romneys.


11 posted on 02/22/2012 8:26:42 AM PST by Yashcheritsiy
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
At some point, probably sooner rather than later, Gingrich is going to have to decide which he wants more, to stay in the limelight and continue getting his ideas out (some of which are brilliant, some of which are goofy), or to STOP ROMNEY.

I think everyone knows that Ron Paul will never make such a selfless decision as to throw his support to someone who can actually stop Romney. And that should say all there needs be said about him.

12 posted on 02/22/2012 8:28:03 AM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: skeeter
Yes, but the race to see who will be dead last, Ron Paul, or noot is interesting.
13 posted on 02/22/2012 8:28:32 AM PST by org.whodat (Sorry bill, I should never have made all those jokes about you and Lewinsky, have fun.)
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To: skeeter
Instead of making claims, based on personal attacks, suppose you post a list of all the things Santorum has established as the plan to fix this economic mess.

All Santorum has so far, is a whole lot of moral/philosophical rhetoric and speeches on the record that are extremely divisive on the moral aspect. More importantly, in regards to economics/Big Government, Santorum utterly contradicts his past and actual record.

Sooner or later, your hero will have to actually come up with something that resembles a plan. His so called “economic plan” for exempting all manufacturing from their tax obligations, without a second thought in regards to the outcome, is nothing more than laughable.

14 posted on 02/22/2012 8:33:18 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

LOL. If I ever decide to make a person attack, you’ll know it.


15 posted on 02/22/2012 8:38:20 AM PST by skeeter
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

I want Romney gone. Then Gingich and Santorum (and even Paul) can debate conservatism till the convention.


16 posted on 02/22/2012 8:39:13 AM PST by cotton1706
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Santorum’s tax plan calls for a triple deduction on children? that is way out there and outrageous.

Note the Santorum supporters never called for him to drop out when he was polling in the single digits. Newt may bounce back again..he has done that twice. Never underestimate Gingrich.


17 posted on 02/22/2012 8:40:02 AM PST by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: Yashcheritsiy

That’s my entire point......

[My parents live in Arizona, and called us last night asking who they should vote for. I told them either Newt or Santorum, though Santorum is leading, so voting for him would help consolidate behind one of the not-Romneys.]

Your parents are a clear illustration WHY we will lose the General election, and WHY we now have Obama.


18 posted on 02/22/2012 8:40:34 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: LS
“I think everyone knows that Ron Paul will never make such a selfless decision as to throw his support to someone who can actually stop Romney.”

On Fox last night they admitted that Paul is working with Romney. The two campaigns have weekly meetings to discuss the race and issues. The Paul campaign admitted it.

Ron Paul is running TV ads in Mi slamming Santorum, and while he is on the ballot, he is doing no campaigning for himself in the state.

Ron Paul is a slime ball POS!

19 posted on 02/22/2012 8:47:21 AM PST by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: b4its2late

Santorum will take Michigan and Arizona. Newt will take Georgia


Rick best rev up his engine in AZ as the last two polls show him falling farther behind.


20 posted on 02/22/2012 8:47:21 AM PST by deport (..............God Bless Texas............)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

The Drudge-supported promotion of misquoted media clips of Santorum/aides statements are doing the trick for Romney, as designed.


21 posted on 02/22/2012 8:49:20 AM PST by montag813
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
I'll say one for Santorum. He is a great source for tagline material...
22 posted on 02/22/2012 8:52:37 AM PST by gov_bean_ counter (Santorum says he isn't a visionary. Sorry Rick, without a vision the people perish.)
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To: Beagle8U

Doesn’t surprise me.


23 posted on 02/22/2012 8:58:24 AM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: cotton1706
We all want Romney gone. That's a foregone conclusion.

What you fail to realize is, following the perceived leader, without being loyal to one candidate, creates the spectacle we are now dealing with.

24 posted on 02/22/2012 9:07:46 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: LS
If you look up a transcript of last night's ‘Special Report’ you can read about it. Slime ball Paul has no shame, and anyone who supports that POS is no conservative.
25 posted on 02/22/2012 9:09:01 AM PST by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

I am loyal to one candate. I was for Palin, she didn’t run. I was for Cain, he dropped out. Now I’m for Gingrich. If he doesn’t make it, I’m for Santorum. Will not vote for Romney.


26 posted on 02/22/2012 9:11:09 AM PST by cotton1706
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

it is pretty funny that newt said who loses his home state should drop out and then next couple of days we see mitt might win mi after all but newt is sinking in georgia...alas i doubt newt will be a man of his word


27 posted on 02/22/2012 9:12:37 AM PST by skaterboy (Hate=Love....Love=Hate)
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To: cotton1706

“I am loyal to one candate. I was for Palin, she didn’t run. I was for Cain, he dropped out. Now I’m for Gingrich. If he doesn’t make it, I’m for Santorum. Will not vote for Romney.”


LOL, you just meant you were loyal to one at a time!

Kind of what has happened to me.


28 posted on 02/22/2012 9:16:40 AM PST by dforest
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Rick can still pull it off.


29 posted on 02/22/2012 9:16:45 AM PST by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: montag813

I do not think so.


30 posted on 02/22/2012 9:18:00 AM PST by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: Beagle8U

LOL! A lot of Paul Bots will deny it.


31 posted on 02/22/2012 9:21:40 AM PST by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

The media and Tokyo Rove have already trotted out their excuse templates if Mitt loses in Michigan.

1. He hasn’t lived there for a long time.
2. They don’t remember his daddy
3. People only know him as Massachusetts Governor

So if Mitt does happen to lose Michigan, these are the only reasons he would lose according to Tokyo.


32 posted on 02/22/2012 9:22:09 AM PST by dforest
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To: cotton1706
I may have misread what you were saying in your previous post then.

But this mess is all due to fair weather politics. And it will end up in a disaster, unless we can pull off a Newt/Sarah ticket by a 3rd party effort, or a brokered convention option.

33 posted on 02/22/2012 9:23:45 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: redgolum

Liberal dope heads, the lot of em!


34 posted on 02/22/2012 9:28:02 AM PST by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: LS

There are those who say Paul has made a deal with the devil, uh, Romney that is. I’m not about to say they’re wrong.


35 posted on 02/22/2012 9:29:28 AM PST by Fresh Wind ('People have got to know whether or not their president is a crook.' Richard M. Nixon)
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To: skaterboy
Time will tell. And knowing Newt, you are in for a big surprise. If nothing else, Newt will stay in until the convention and see it through. Nobody knows more than Newt, how ridiculous a Santorum nomination would be.

Besides, the numbers are just not there for your hero.

36 posted on 02/22/2012 9:34:41 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

I think Santorum will win there.


37 posted on 02/22/2012 9:35:44 AM PST by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: Fresh Wind

BTW, with all the Santorum “satan” comments, I ask my classes that, if you hear Satanic messages when you play Led Zeppelin backwards, if you play a Satanic cult ritual backwards do you hear “Stairway to Heaven?”


38 posted on 02/22/2012 9:38:58 AM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Biggirl

[Rick can still pull it off.]

The only thing Santorum can “pull off” is his goofy sweater vest campaign theme.


39 posted on 02/22/2012 9:40:36 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: org.whodat

I listened to Gingrich on Hannity’s radio show the other day. He kept pointing out that he had “big ideas”, that he was the candidate who thought “big”, etc.

He hasn’t figured out that we’re plenty sick of new “big ideas.” The original “big ideas” were framed in our Constitution over two centuries ago. We need a President who recognizes that and leads us back to them, not to some Newt world filled with new ones.

Every time he used the word “big”, it grated on me and reminded be of “BIG Government.” If he’s got that much of a tin ear, he’d have trouble in the general election, and it would also explain why he has so little support from those who had to work with him when he was Speaker.

That said, I’d support him over Romney, but Santorum is looking like the better choice for now.


40 posted on 02/22/2012 9:41:28 AM PST by Norseman (Defund the Left-Completely!)
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To: Norseman
Big Government? You mean like Santorum's Big Government? Facts for Video: “Votes” (MI, AZ, OH) Rick Santorum voted to raise the debt limit five times. ■FACT: Santorum voted to increase the debt ceiling in 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2006. Together, these five votes boosted the federal debt limit by nearly $3.5 trillion. (H.R. 2015, Roll Call Vote #209, 7/31/97; S. 2578, Roll Call Vote #148, 6/11/02; H. J. Res. 51, Roll Call Vote #202, 5/23/03; S. 2986, Roll Call Vote #213, 11/17/04; H. J. Res. 47, Roll Call Vote #54, 3/16/06; Mindy R. Leavit, “The Debt Limit: History and Recent Increases,” Congressional Research Service, 9/9/11) Rick Santorum voted for billions in waste, including the “Bridge to Nowhere.”

■FACT: “Santorum was a prolific supporter of earmarks, having requested billions of dollars for pork projects in Pennsylvania while he was in Congress.” (Club for Growth, 2012 Presidential White Paper #4, Rick Santorum)

■FACT: “The announcements flowed out of Rick Santorum’s Senate office: a $3.5 million federal grant to Piasecki Aircraft to help it test a new helicopter propeller technology; another $3.5 million to JLG Industries to bolster its bid to build all-terrain forklifts for the military; $1.4 million to Medico Industries to upgrade equipment for its munitions work. … But an examination of Mr. Santorum’s earmark record sheds light on another aspect of his political personality, one that is at odds with the reformer image he has tried to convey on the trail: his prowess as a Washington insider. A review of some of his earmarks, viewed alongside his political donations, suggests that the river of federal money Mr. Santorum helped direct to Pennsylvania paid off handsomely in the form of campaign cash.” (Michael Luo and Mike McIntire, The New York Times, 1/15/12)

■FACT: Santorum voted for the 2005 highway bill, which included hundreds of earmarks, including the bridge to nowhere, a teapot museum. (H.R. 3, Roll Call Vote #220, 7/29/05)

■FACT: Santorum supported the “Bridge to Nowhere” – twice. Santorum “voted for the 2005 highway bill that included thousands of wasteful earmarks, including the Bridge to Nowhere. In fact, in a separate vote, Santorum had the audacity to vote to continue funding the Bridge to Nowhere rather than send the money to rebuild New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.” (Club for Growth, 2012 Presidential White Paper #4, Rick Santorum)

■FACT: Santorum admitted he voted for bridge, and defended vote: “People say that I voted for ‘The Bridge to Nowhere.’ I did. I went with the federalist argument, which is, ‘Who am I in Pennsylvania to tell Alaska what their highway priorities should be?’” (William Petroski, Des Moines Register, 12/29/11) In a single session, Rick Santorum co-sponsored 51 bills to increase spending … And zero to cut spending.

■FACT: “In the 2003-2004 session of Congress, Santorum sponsored or cosponsored 51 bills to increase spending, and failed to sponsor or co-sponsor even one spending cut proposal.” (Club for Growth, 2012 Presidential White Paper #4, Former Senator Rick Santorum) Rick Santorum even voted to raise his own pay.

■FACT: “Santorum also supported raising congressional pay at least three times, in 2001, 2002, and 2003.” (Club for Growth, 2012 Presidential White Paper #4, Former Senator Rick Santorum)

■FACT: Santorum voted three times – in 2001, 2002 and 2003 – to preserve Congressional pay increases. (Roll Call Vote #360, 12/7/01; Roll Call Vote #242, 11/13/02; Roll Call Vote #406, 10/23/03) Rick Santorum joined Hillary Clinton to let convicted felons vote.

■FACT: In 2002, Santorum voted “to secure the Federal voting rights of certain qualified persons who have served their sentences.” Santorum was one of only three Republican senators to vote with Sen. Hillary Clinton for the measure, which failed in the Senate. (S. 565, Roll Call Vote #31, 2/14/02)

■FACT: Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV), who sponsored the measure, on the purpose of his amendment: “Basically what this amendment does is ensure that ex-felons, people who have fully served their sentences, have completed their probation, have completed their parole, should not be denied their right to vote.” (Sen. Harry Reid, Remarks on the Senate Floor, 2/14/02)

41 posted on 02/22/2012 9:52:15 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
Your parents are a clear illustration WHY we will lose the General election, and WHY we now have Obama.

Why? They wouldn't vote for Obama in the general under ANY circumstances.

42 posted on 02/22/2012 10:02:25 AM PST by Yashcheritsiy
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Early voting is an abomination. Probably even the work of.....Satan


43 posted on 02/22/2012 10:12:17 AM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Buckeye McFrog
[Early voting is an abomination. Probably even the work of.....Satan]

LOL! Well yes! To ward off such EEeevilll, just put on your blessed Sweater Vest, wave your finger in judgment, and remind everybody that they all living their lives wrongly and that you are the definition of all things pure and HOLY!

44 posted on 02/22/2012 10:21:48 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: dforest

I’m loyal to conservatism and to liberty, not to any politician.


45 posted on 02/22/2012 10:31:46 AM PST by cotton1706
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Romney’s negative ad campaign has only effected a 4% dip. Not bad.

The debate tonight will be decisive. Rick can reintroduce himself.

Rick will also have to hit Romney hard. He should go after Romneycare and his abortion flip-flops.


46 posted on 02/22/2012 10:32:25 AM PST by St_Thomas_Aquinas (Viva Christo Rey!)
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To: deport

Ahhh, what the hell. I can dream.


47 posted on 02/22/2012 10:35:07 AM PST by b4its2late (Patience is not a virtue, it is a waste of time.)
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To: cotton1706

I agree with you, but you used that word in post#26:)


48 posted on 02/22/2012 10:38:09 AM PST by dforest
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To: St_Thomas_Aquinas

The debate could very well be Rick’s night to shine.


49 posted on 02/22/2012 10:57:51 AM PST by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Anyone but Romney.


50 posted on 02/22/2012 11:05:07 AM PST by Darren McCarty (Stop Romney - Rick Santorum in the Michigan primary)
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