Skip to comments.Tied up in Michigan (Santorum slipping)
Posted on 02/22/2012 8:07:25 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP
Tied up in Michigan: New NBC/Marist poll -- Romney 37%, Santorum 35%, Paul 13%, Gingrich 8%... But NBC/Marist also has Romney with a sizable lead in Arizona Romney 43%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 11%...
Organization is helping Romney in both states (see his early-voting/absentee advantage), but ideology is hurting him (Tea Party supporters and conservatives breaking toward Santorum) General-election numbers: Obama leads in Michigan, but trails in Arizona Three questions heading into tonights GOP debate in Arizona Its the 20th of the cycle, and it begins at 8:00 pm ET And Obamas corporate-tax plan.
Less than a week before Tuesdays crucial GOP presidential primary in Michigan -- and before tonights debate in Arizona -- a new NBC/Marist poll finds Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum locked in a statistical tie in Michigan, while a separate NBC/Marist survey shows Romney comfortably leading in Arizona.
The Michigan numbers among likely Republican primary voters: Romney 37%, Santorum 35%, Paul 13%, and Gingrich 8%. The Arizona figures: Romney 43%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 16%, and Paul 11%. Michigan is neck and neck, says pollster Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted both surveys (Feb. 19-20).
(Excerpt) Read more at firstread.msnbc.msn.com ...
Romney leads Santorum, 49%-26%.But among those who HAVENT voted in Michigan yet, Santorum is up by one point, 37%-36%. The same is true in Arizona: Among those who have voted early or absentee in Arizona -- more than half of all likely GOP voters in the poll -- Romney leads by 30 points, 52%-22%. But his lead is just one point among those who havent voted yet, 34%-33%.
Call it organization vs. momentum. But while the Romney campaigns early-voting organization is clearly helping him, a lack of support from conservatives is hurting him.
In Michigan, Santorum leads Romney among self-identified Tea Party supporters, 48%-29%, and those who describe themselves as very conservative, 59%-20%. Yet among those who dont support the Tea Party, Romney is ahead by more than 20 points, 45%-24%.
The same ideological pattern is true in Arizona, although Romney performs much better with the most conservative voters there than in Michigan (thanks in part to the larger Mormon population in Arizona).
Debate tonight is make or break for both Romney and Santorum. Although even a slight win for Romney in one of his best states doesn’t bode well for him.
Romney sucks. Can't run on issues.
If I were not so sickened at how this election is turning out and if our futures were not at stake, I would load up on Pop Corn and sit back and watch the outcome for nothing more than entertainment value.
The ball is in Newt's court.
If this were true you'd be supporting anyone but Obama & Willard instead of treating the process like a high school popularity contest.
Just goes to show that nobody with a Biblical moral compass can win a national election in this country anymore.
My parents live in Arizona, and called us last night asking who they should vote for. I told them either Newt or Santorum, though Santorum is leading, so voting for him would help consolidate behind one of the not-Romneys.
I think everyone knows that Ron Paul will never make such a selfless decision as to throw his support to someone who can actually stop Romney. And that should say all there needs be said about him.
All Santorum has so far, is a whole lot of moral/philosophical rhetoric and speeches on the record that are extremely divisive on the moral aspect. More importantly, in regards to economics/Big Government, Santorum utterly contradicts his past and actual record.
Sooner or later, your hero will have to actually come up with something that resembles a plan. His so called “economic plan” for exempting all manufacturing from their tax obligations, without a second thought in regards to the outcome, is nothing more than laughable.
LOL. If I ever decide to make a person attack, you’ll know it.
I want Romney gone. Then Gingich and Santorum (and even Paul) can debate conservatism till the convention.
Santorum’s tax plan calls for a triple deduction on children? that is way out there and outrageous.
Note the Santorum supporters never called for him to drop out when he was polling in the single digits. Newt may bounce back again..he has done that twice. Never underestimate Gingrich.
That’s my entire point......
[My parents live in Arizona, and called us last night asking who they should vote for. I told them either Newt or Santorum, though Santorum is leading, so voting for him would help consolidate behind one of the not-Romneys.]
Your parents are a clear illustration WHY we will lose the General election, and WHY we now have Obama.
On Fox last night they admitted that Paul is working with Romney. The two campaigns have weekly meetings to discuss the race and issues. The Paul campaign admitted it.
Ron Paul is running TV ads in Mi slamming Santorum, and while he is on the ballot, he is doing no campaigning for himself in the state.
Ron Paul is a slime ball POS!
Santorum will take Michigan and Arizona. Newt will take Georgia
Rick best rev up his engine in AZ as the last two polls show him falling farther behind.
The Drudge-supported promotion of misquoted media clips of Santorum/aides statements are doing the trick for Romney, as designed.
Doesn’t surprise me.
What you fail to realize is, following the perceived leader, without being loyal to one candidate, creates the spectacle we are now dealing with.
I am loyal to one candate. I was for Palin, she didn’t run. I was for Cain, he dropped out. Now I’m for Gingrich. If he doesn’t make it, I’m for Santorum. Will not vote for Romney.
it is pretty funny that newt said who loses his home state should drop out and then next couple of days we see mitt might win mi after all but newt is sinking in georgia...alas i doubt newt will be a man of his word
“I am loyal to one candate. I was for Palin, she didnt run. I was for Cain, he dropped out. Now Im for Gingrich. If he doesnt make it, Im for Santorum. Will not vote for Romney.”
LOL, you just meant you were loyal to one at a time!
Kind of what has happened to me.
Rick can still pull it off.
I do not think so.
LOL! A lot of Paul Bots will deny it.
The media and Tokyo Rove have already trotted out their excuse templates if Mitt loses in Michigan.
1. He hasn’t lived there for a long time.
2. They don’t remember his daddy
3. People only know him as Massachusetts Governor
So if Mitt does happen to lose Michigan, these are the only reasons he would lose according to Tokyo.
But this mess is all due to fair weather politics. And it will end up in a disaster, unless we can pull off a Newt/Sarah ticket by a 3rd party effort, or a brokered convention option.
Liberal dope heads, the lot of em!
There are those who say Paul has made a deal with the devil, uh, Romney that is. I’m not about to say they’re wrong.
Besides, the numbers are just not there for your hero.
I think Santorum will win there.
BTW, with all the Santorum “satan” comments, I ask my classes that, if you hear Satanic messages when you play Led Zeppelin backwards, if you play a Satanic cult ritual backwards do you hear “Stairway to Heaven?”
[Rick can still pull it off.]
The only thing Santorum can “pull off” is his goofy sweater vest campaign theme.
I listened to Gingrich on Hannity’s radio show the other day. He kept pointing out that he had “big ideas”, that he was the candidate who thought “big”, etc.
He hasn’t figured out that we’re plenty sick of new “big ideas.” The original “big ideas” were framed in our Constitution over two centuries ago. We need a President who recognizes that and leads us back to them, not to some Newt world filled with new ones.
Every time he used the word “big”, it grated on me and reminded be of “BIG Government.” If he’s got that much of a tin ear, he’d have trouble in the general election, and it would also explain why he has so little support from those who had to work with him when he was Speaker.
That said, I’d support him over Romney, but Santorum is looking like the better choice for now.
■FACT: Santorum was a prolific supporter of earmarks, having requested billions of dollars for pork projects in Pennsylvania while he was in Congress. (Club for Growth, 2012 Presidential White Paper #4, Rick Santorum)
■FACT: The announcements flowed out of Rick Santorums Senate office: a $3.5 million federal grant to Piasecki Aircraft to help it test a new helicopter propeller technology; another $3.5 million to JLG Industries to bolster its bid to build all-terrain forklifts for the military; $1.4 million to Medico Industries to upgrade equipment for its munitions work. But an examination of Mr. Santorums earmark record sheds light on another aspect of his political personality, one that is at odds with the reformer image he has tried to convey on the trail: his prowess as a Washington insider. A review of some of his earmarks, viewed alongside his political donations, suggests that the river of federal money Mr. Santorum helped direct to Pennsylvania paid off handsomely in the form of campaign cash. (Michael Luo and Mike McIntire, The New York Times, 1/15/12)
■FACT: Santorum voted for the 2005 highway bill, which included hundreds of earmarks, including the bridge to nowhere, a teapot museum. (H.R. 3, Roll Call Vote #220, 7/29/05)
■FACT: Santorum supported the Bridge to Nowhere twice. Santorum voted for the 2005 highway bill that included thousands of wasteful earmarks, including the Bridge to Nowhere. In fact, in a separate vote, Santorum had the audacity to vote to continue funding the Bridge to Nowhere rather than send the money to rebuild New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. (Club for Growth, 2012 Presidential White Paper #4, Rick Santorum)
■FACT: Santorum admitted he voted for bridge, and defended vote: People say that I voted for The Bridge to Nowhere. I did. I went with the federalist argument, which is, Who am I in Pennsylvania to tell Alaska what their highway priorities should be? (William Petroski, Des Moines Register, 12/29/11) In a single session, Rick Santorum co-sponsored 51 bills to increase spending And zero to cut spending.
■FACT: In the 2003-2004 session of Congress, Santorum sponsored or cosponsored 51 bills to increase spending, and failed to sponsor or co-sponsor even one spending cut proposal. (Club for Growth, 2012 Presidential White Paper #4, Former Senator Rick Santorum) Rick Santorum even voted to raise his own pay.
■FACT: Santorum also supported raising congressional pay at least three times, in 2001, 2002, and 2003. (Club for Growth, 2012 Presidential White Paper #4, Former Senator Rick Santorum)
■FACT: Santorum voted three times in 2001, 2002 and 2003 to preserve Congressional pay increases. (Roll Call Vote #360, 12/7/01; Roll Call Vote #242, 11/13/02; Roll Call Vote #406, 10/23/03) Rick Santorum joined Hillary Clinton to let convicted felons vote.
■FACT: In 2002, Santorum voted to secure the Federal voting rights of certain qualified persons who have served their sentences. Santorum was one of only three Republican senators to vote with Sen. Hillary Clinton for the measure, which failed in the Senate. (S. 565, Roll Call Vote #31, 2/14/02)
■FACT: Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV), who sponsored the measure, on the purpose of his amendment: Basically what this amendment does is ensure that ex-felons, people who have fully served their sentences, have completed their probation, have completed their parole, should not be denied their right to vote. (Sen. Harry Reid, Remarks on the Senate Floor, 2/14/02)
Why? They wouldn't vote for Obama in the general under ANY circumstances.
Early voting is an abomination. Probably even the work of.....Satan
LOL! Well yes! To ward off such EEeevilll, just put on your blessed Sweater Vest, wave your finger in judgment, and remind everybody that they all living their lives wrongly and that you are the definition of all things pure and HOLY!
I’m loyal to conservatism and to liberty, not to any politician.
Romney’s negative ad campaign has only effected a 4% dip. Not bad.
The debate tonight will be decisive. Rick can reintroduce himself.
Rick will also have to hit Romney hard. He should go after Romneycare and his abortion flip-flops.
Ahhh, what the hell. I can dream.
I agree with you, but you used that word in post#26:)
The debate could very well be Rick’s night to shine.
Anyone but Romney.