Tied up in Michigan (Santorum slipping)

NBC/Marist poll ^ | Today | By NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Brooke Brower, and Carrie Dann

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Tied up in Michigan: New NBC/Marist poll -- Romney 37%, Santorum 35%, Paul 13%, Gingrich 8%... But NBC/Marist also has Romney with a sizable lead in Arizona – Romney 43%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 11%...

Organization is helping Romney in both states (see his early-voting/absentee advantage), but ideology is hurting him (Tea Party supporters and conservatives breaking toward Santorum)… General-election numbers: Obama leads in Michigan, but trails in Arizona… Three questions heading into tonight’s GOP debate in Arizona… It’s the 20th of the cycle, and it begins at 8:00 pm ET… And Obama’s corporate-tax plan.

Less than a week before Tuesday’s crucial GOP presidential primary in Michigan -- and before tonight’s debate in Arizona -- a new NBC/Marist poll finds Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum locked in a statistical tie in Michigan, while a separate NBC/Marist survey shows Romney comfortably leading in Arizona.

The Michigan numbers among likely Republican primary voters: Romney 37%, Santorum 35%, Paul 13%, and Gingrich 8%. The Arizona figures: Romney 43%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 16%, and Paul 11%. “Michigan is neck and neck,” says pollster Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted both surveys (Feb. 19-20).

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

*** Organization vs. momentum: What’s helping Romney in both states is organization; what’s hurting him is a lack of support from conservatives. Among those who have ALREADY voted absentee in Michigan -- 16% of likely GOP voters, according to the poll --

Romney leads Santorum, 49%-26%.But among those who HAVEN’T voted in Michigan yet, Santorum is up by one point, 37%-36%. The same is true in Arizona: Among those who have voted early or absentee in Arizona -- more than half of all likely GOP voters in the poll -- Romney leads by 30 points, 52%-22%. But his lead is just one point among those who haven’t voted yet, 34%-33%.

Call it organization vs. momentum. But while the Romney campaign’s early-voting organization is clearly helping him, a lack of support from conservatives is hurting him.

In Michigan, Santorum leads Romney among self-identified Tea Party supporters, 48%-29%, and those who describe themselves as “very conservative,” 59%-20%. Yet among those who don’t support the Tea Party, Romney is ahead by more than 20 points, 45%-24%.

The same ideological pattern is true in Arizona, although Romney performs much better with the most conservative voters there than in Michigan (thanks in part to the larger Mormon population in Arizona).

[org.whodat]

Slipping, ROFLOL, you are really funny, Willard was suppose to win this state by a 30% margin. Instead he is sweating bullets and could lose.

[cotton1706]

Debate tonight is make or break for both Romney and Santorum. Although even a slight win for Romney in one of his best states doesn’t bode well for him.

[b4its2late]

Santorum will take Michigan and Arizona. Newt will take Georgia.

Romney sucks. Can't run on issues.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Sorry to disappoint anyone who believes that Santorum has a lock on this thing. But the numbers, the fact that Romney is NOT done if he loses Michigan, Santorum’s severe lack of early campaign preparation and organization, all spell a road block for Santorum with a moat behind it. But he may take a large enough portion of the delegates to force a Brokered Convention.

If I were not so sickened at how this election is turning out and if our futures were not at stake, I would load up on Pop Corn and sit back and watch the outcome for nothing more than entertainment value.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Agreed! Time for Newt to sit back and let them rip each others throats out, then step in as the adult and clear thinker who actually has a workable plan already established.

The ball is in Newt's court.

[skeeter]

If I were not so sickened at how this election is turning out and if our futures were not at stake

If this were true you'd be supporting anyone but Obama & Willard instead of treating the process like a high school popularity contest.

[Westbrook]

Just goes to show that nobody with a Biblical moral compass can win a national election in this country anymore.

[Antoninus]

LOL. The race in Michigan is a nail-biter despite the fact that it was supposed to be a cake-walk for Romney. He's been forced to outspend his opponents 10-1, he's got a vaunted state organization, and he STILL MIGHT LOSE.

And somehow, this is bad news for Santorum?

The lesson here is that Romney sucks and Newt can't get any traction outside the south. Given that Newt has basically given up on Michigan, there is absolutely no reason for a Newt supporter not to hope Santorum takes it--unless that person is PSYCHO.

[Patton@Bastogne]

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We're no longer a Christian nation ...


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[Yashcheritsiy]

My parents live in Arizona, and called us last night asking who they should vote for. I told them either Newt or Santorum, though Santorum is leading, so voting for him would help consolidate behind one of the not-Romneys.

[LS]

At some point, probably sooner rather than later, Gingrich is going to have to decide which he wants more, to stay in the limelight and continue getting his ideas out (some of which are brilliant, some of which are goofy), or to STOP ROMNEY.

I think everyone knows that Ron Paul will never make such a selfless decision as to throw his support to someone who can actually stop Romney. And that should say all there needs be said about him.

[org.whodat]

Yes, but the race to see who will be dead last, Ron Paul, or noot is interesting.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Instead of making claims, based on personal attacks, suppose you post a list of all the things Santorum has established as the plan to fix this economic mess.

All Santorum has so far, is a whole lot of moral/philosophical rhetoric and speeches on the record that are extremely divisive on the moral aspect. More importantly, in regards to economics/Big Government, Santorum utterly contradicts his past and actual record.

Sooner or later, your hero will have to actually come up with something that resembles a plan. His so called “economic plan” for exempting all manufacturing from their tax obligations, without a second thought in regards to the outcome, is nothing more than laughable.

[skeeter]

LOL. If I ever decide to make a person attack, you’ll know it.

[cotton1706]

I want Romney gone. Then Gingich and Santorum (and even Paul) can debate conservatism till the convention.

[katiedidit1]

Santorum’s tax plan calls for a triple deduction on children? that is way out there and outrageous.

Note the Santorum supporters never called for him to drop out when he was polling in the single digits. Newt may bounce back again..he has done that twice. Never underestimate Gingrich.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

That’s my entire point......

[My parents live in Arizona, and called us last night asking who they should vote for. I told them either Newt or Santorum, though Santorum is leading, so voting for him would help consolidate behind one of the not-Romneys.]

Your parents are a clear illustration WHY we will lose the General election, and WHY we now have Obama.

[Beagle8U]

“I think everyone knows that Ron Paul will never make such a selfless decision as to throw his support to someone who can actually stop Romney.”

On Fox last night they admitted that Paul is working with Romney. The two campaigns have weekly meetings to discuss the race and issues. The Paul campaign admitted it.

Ron Paul is running TV ads in Mi slamming Santorum, and while he is on the ballot, he is doing no campaigning for himself in the state.

Ron Paul is a slime ball POS!

[deport]

Santorum will take Michigan and Arizona. Newt will take Georgia

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Rick best rev up his engine in AZ as the last two polls show him falling farther behind.