Skip to comments.U.S. does not believe Iran is trying to build nuclear bomb
Posted on 02/24/2012 7:35:14 AM PST by gandalftb
U.S. intelligence agencies don't believe Iran is actively trying to build an atomic bomb.
A highly classified U.S. intelligence assessment circulated to policymakers early last year largely affirms that view, originally made in 2007. Both reports, known as national intelligence estimates, conclude that Tehran halted efforts to develop and build a nuclear warhead in 2003.
The most recent report, which represents the consensus of 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, indicates that Iran is pursuing research that could put it in a position to build a weapon, but that it has not sought to do so.
Senior U.S. officials say Israel does not dispute the basic intelligence or analysis.
It is not known precisely what other technical hurdles Iran would have to overcome, but Albright and many other experts believe that if it decides to proceed, the country has the scientific knowledge to design and build a crude working bomb in as little as a year. It would take as long as three years, Albright estimated, for Iran to build a warhead small enough to fit on a ballistic missile.
Albright said a push by Iran to build a nuclear weapon probably would be detected.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
One of the hiring requirements of intelligence officials is that they must be intelligent.
They would hardly take a job where guessing wrong gets them a firing squad.
“...and the B-52s are on the way.”
That mission might be worth a couple Spirits
Secondly: Western human intelligence assets in and around Iran are few, and communications/electronic intercepts subject to various interpretation in the absence of validation by experienced and trustworthy eyes and ears within the region.
Even assuming the conclusion that Iran is not presently seeking a nuclear bomb is a correct one, it is abundantly clear that once the Iranians decided upon such an objective, it might be achieved in months, not years. Furthermore, other weapons might well be contemplated by Iran, including chemical and biological ones. The article is silent in consideration of such potential alternative threats.
Finally, what if Iran is using its shadowy nuclear program as cover for a darker plan: obtaining fully-functional nuclear weapons from allied elements in, say, Pakistan? Or from one of the former Soviet republics where much fissionable material "disappeared" sometime during the 1990s?
As you suggest, Iran is building long- and medium-range rockets for a reason. I would not trust desk-based analysts in Washington to conclusively tell us why.
Well, they got a 50-50 chance of being correct...
“intelligence suggests” Iran has enough for a bomb.
Without the Mossad, I suggested the same thing a year ago. Whoop de do, I can’t prove it anymore than Mossad can.
Having enough 20% for a hundred bombs doesn’t matter. Only if Iran takes that 20% and enriches to 90% can we legally make a case for attack.
The only reason Israel constantly goads and incites the US to attack Iran is that Israel knows it cannot get the job done on its own.
If Israel could stop Iran’s nukes they would stop talking and do it.
Israel never telegraphs its military moves. Only when Israel stops talking is it time to put on the ear plugs and sun glasses.
You can make a dirty bomb with any radioactive isotope of many elements. It would be much cheaper and easier to use radioactive iodine.
Once Iran uses a nuke, they know it better have serious traction and they know they better have many more, ready to use, to postpone extermination.
I don’t blame Obama, he’s stuck as any president would be without the hard evidence.
Gingrich can run his mouth all he wants but in the same position he would do the same as Obama is doing now about Iran. Any president has to make the case before going to war.
I expect Israel to go quiet very soon.
“A highly classified U.S. intelligence assessment circulated to policymakers early last year largely affirms that view”
Things have changed since early last year.
Not sure if I can continue to read this.
Sure they (we) do.
That is why the muslim sympathizers in the administration want to call off any Israel attacks.
That way the the Iranian muzzies will have the time they need to assemble a working nuclear weapon.
US doesn’t think Iran is making a bomb?
Are these the same geniuses who thought the Stimulus would keep unemployment down?
The NIE is a matter of record, by our best intel professionals. This is what they agree on, with reservations.
Our humint in Iran is getting better, but certainly Mossad leads here and shares with us.
I agree, they could enrich to 90% in months. Three cascades of 164 p-1 centrifuges each can take 20% to 90%, enough for one bomb per year. They say they have 18 cascades available now that could do so.
We’ve done an airtight op over the last 15 years to secure the former USSR’s nukes, OK, we bought them.
Pakistan won’t sell nukes, they are too afraid of India.
Iran’s nuke goal is not to use the nukes, but to sell them and their technology to any and all, the Burma’s, Venezuela’s, etc. The other goal is to show muslims that Shia’s are stronger than Sunni’s.
Iran wants to be the first homegrown muslim nuke power as Pakistan bought their centrifuges and know how from N Korea.
As far as missiles go, no one can predict a missiles flight trajectory that is determined only by the launch commander. None of our intel professionals are clairvoyant.
One very good analysis piece that I read suggests that Iran is “going slow” on the development of an A-bomb until they develop a long-range ballistic missile to deliver it. That makes sense. If you build a bomb that can’t actually reach your chief adversary (the US) then all you’re going to do is get maneuvered into a corner like Saddam did. And the US eventually gets a coalition together along with a sufficient UN declaration to take you out. The ayatolla’s have seen that movie before. In fact it played at a theater in their neighborhood.
“US doesnt think Iran is making a bomb?”
Every thinking person knows Iran wants nukes.
The problem is how do you drag them, while they are kicking, screaming, holding their breath, stomping their feet, out into the light?
Good point. Not much point having a nuke if you can’t deliver it. That is truly important to the Iranians.
The Iranians could terrorize their enemies simply by demonstrating an ICBM and then let the world fuss itself endlessly guessing at whether Iran had a nuke to go with it.
The Iranians are clearly pro’s at mind games. They know the perception of force is just as good and a whole lot cheaper than the actual means of force.
The long-term effects of the Liberal campaign to undermine George W.
Since no WMD was found in Iraq, any talk of a hostile power working on them is now “a neocon fantasy intended to manufacture an illegal war!”
Shouldn’t have let them shove ya around for seven years there, Georgie!
The single best use for an Iranian nuke against the US would be an EMP burst. They need a ICBM for that. Right now they are testing/deploying IRBM’s that can reach parts of Europe. That cuts down on the coalition.
An EMP strike immediately levels the playing field between the Western and Muslim worlds. Perhaps Iran gets taken out in a nuclear counterstrike, but the crazies over there might just deem that ‘acceptable’.
If the consensus agrees they are not making a bomb, I would say it’s 100% sure they are. Who really wrote this article AKMANGETAJOB with co-operation from the socialist frauds in our MSM.
I am certain that the targets will include Bushehr.
Bushehr is located in the west-central part of Iran historically known as Elam.
There is an unfulfilled prophecy in Jeremiah 49:34-39 that speaks of Elam being struck and its people scattered.
You may find the following analysis by Bill Salus enlightening: