Skip to comments.GALLUP DAILY: GOP Ballot Tracking (Santorum 31, Romney 30, Gingrich 16; End of the Santorum Surge?)
Posted on 02/25/2012 10:57:49 AM PST by BCrago66
Look at the chart at the bottom of the page:
Santorum's 10 point over Romney lead has been cut down to a 1 point lead...in just 4 days. Unfortunately for Gingrich supporters (such as myself), Newt has stabilized at 16, and it look like Romney, not Newt, has been the chief beneficiary of Santorum's recent polling dive.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Only need one vote to win. Go Santorum. lol. I love how they say that the mojo is gone when he is still winning. One vote folks!!! Sanotrum is such a true inspiration to America. He will save America! Bring back the MORALS and VALUES! Character matters!!!!!
RCP Average 2/8 - 2/24 — — 33.1 28.9 14.6 12.4 Santorum +4.2
Hang at the top, Rick! Beat Willard the Lib! The Conservative reinforcements are coming!
I hope you are right. But it is been Rommeny and the anti Rommney all campaign. The big issue is no one has the money or clout to beat Mitt in the long haul.
Still, I am glad I voted for him in Iowa.
This is a tracking poll taken from the last 5 days of polling. That means if Romney gained 3 points and Santorum lost 2 in just the last day, and the latest result has the two candidates just 1 point apart, Romney is ahead of Santorum in the 2/24 poll.
Now maybe 2/24 is an outlier, but if the look at the trend in the chart for the last 5 days or so, it doesn’t look like it.
Tells you all you need to know about how serious Santorum voters are, doesn't it.
Come on, friends! Go donate to Santorum! I’m tapped out. Now is when we can prevent Rominee! Now! Santorum HAS TO WIN MICHIGAN. Make it happen!!
So in your mind this snapshot means Newt is always at 16?
You didn’t say that, I know, but you seem defeated...correct my misimpression if need be.
I’m not predicting either way...that would take a working crystal ball.
Not assuming an ongoing same ol’, same ol’, either.
It has. Santo is on his way down.
We now have 2 “BREAKING NEWS” articles with freeper commentary in titles about Santorum doing poorly yet both are about Santorum leading Romney.
How sad that some freepers seem to root for the fall of yet another conservative who is beating Mittens. I’m guessing these same posters would not be posting breaking news articles if Santorum was increasing his lead.
Newt, buddy, put yourself in front of the American people in a SERIES of "fireside chats" in a "non-governmental" setting and talk face-to-face with the American people and REALLY LEVEL with them about who you are, warts and all, and what you stand for and what's at stake.
I’m too Internet challenged to know how to post that kind of graph - thanks.
RomPaul took their best shot at Santorum and he’s still standing. That’s what I see.
I guess maybe Santo took another one for the team.
You’re right, two days at 16 does mean Gingrich “stabilized” at that point; my bad. In the past 5 days or so Romney has gained 4 points, but Gingrich has gained 3. So they might be splitting the bounty of Santorum’s dive near-evenly.
I thing I was expecting a 17 or 18 for Gingrich today, so it was the disappointment speaking.
If he is, then we are stuck with Romney. I don't see Newt going anywhere that counts.
I was answering the question in the headline. Santorum's surge has ended.
Uh, did you see the gleeful and misleading post that headed up breaking news all day until recently?
It pretended that Newt was in favor of the gay marriage referenda and result in Washington state.
All Newt said was if voters in a state vote for gay marriage, it’s a done deal in that state, and he much prefers that process to unelected judges forcing it. But he is against gay marriage.
He was accused, repeatedly, of having a wrong position on the issue and of pandering to people in Washington State who are for gay marriage.
Thankfully, finally it went to the graveyard of inappropriate breaking news headlines.
Don’t go all victim on us, whaddya’ say?
It was done to Newt Gingrich by Santorum people.
However, after last night's debate I fear Santorum cannot possibly beat Obama in a debate, and this is of great concern to me. Rick has great leadership qualities, a solid record that conservatives can latch onto, fine morals, good ideas for solving our nation's problems and a knowledgeable comprehension of foreign affairs...but he was lost last night under Mitt's attacks. Obama surely will ridicule Rick much worse...and how will he fare? I am afraid he won't do well, he is not a man who is skilled in street level ridicule and making caustic comments. Actually, he is refined and dignified, and those tactics aren't part of his M.O.
We need a candidate who can spar without backing down and stand strong against Obama when they are face to face. With all of Gingrich's faults I think he is the only one capable of doing in and pounding down Obama during debates. And...in the end...unfortunately, it will be the debates that will influence most of America, and not any other qualities that the candidates do or do not have.
We saw this with Obama and the way he beat on McCain. Many Americans paid little or no attention to any information about Obama...they voted based on what they saw and how he handled himself when he and McCain faced off. Aside from the race issue and his support based on his skin color...Obama's snide remarks and quick comebacks were the basis for what convinced most Americans to vote for him.
We don’t know the mindset of millions of possible Santorum voters in all these places.
Here, they mostly aren’t for Romney.
In some places they aren’t as against Romney as we are.
So some of them could definitely go to Romney.
In Michigan, which is a state, I know, but it is polled for national, too, a lot of people might think there’s reason only to choose between Mitt and Rick S because Newt isn’t much of a factor there and hasn’t campaigned.
Newt stands to benefit if he hangs in and does well, from both Mitt and Santorum supporters who are amenable to having their minds changed.
I’m curious why we’re all focused on the presidential race and not the state and local races.
Where are the critical contests between the RINOS and conservatives? Where are the Tea Party candidates... both those from 2010 and new ones for 2012?
How’s the IL Manzullo v Kinzinger battle going?
Small government Lauzen leads RINO Burns. How much of the small government slate will win in Kane County?
These local battles determine the direction of the party just as much, or more, than the race at the top (given current situation with the top race).
I'm taking this totally off topic but I just can't resist...Newt, I love ya and agree with you 100%. Out here in Cali. we voted down gay marriage TWICE and they still took it to the judges and got our votes overturned!
Okay, rant over. Thanks for listening txrangerette :) (like you had a choice? LOL)
I tried to warn you people what would happen if Santorum started falling, but nobody believed me. Rick was the absolute last hope for many people who had moved from Bachmann, Cain, and Perry. Their tired of having their candidate shot down not just by the MSM but by their own conservative people. It’s turning them off and there beginning to capitulate.
What I posted to Mariner the other day in the Rasmussen Poll thread (Romney 40% Santorum 34%).
“Mariner, you asked the question what would happen to the Santorum supporters and that you were concerned, and this is my answer. A good chunk may not even vote or if they do, they might just vote Romney. A small percentage may go back to Newt, but not anywhere near the numbers Newt needs to win outside the South. This poll confirms that trend. Notice Newt didnt gain, but what Santorum lost, almost all went to Romney. These people are NOT Romney supporters, theyre just tired, theyve had enough, and just want to be done with the whole thing. Theyve been through 4-5 candidates and everytime, EVERYTIME, the candidate gets hammered not only by the MSM, but even in the so-called conservative forums. This poll shows they are capitulating. If this was your goal, then congratulations.
You kept saying Santorum supporters like to positively spin. Well Im a supporter, but as you can tell, Im not spinning. This whole process has made me bitter, angry, and turned me off to the Election. After I felt like the voters spit on me (military) in 2008, I thought there was no doubt that we would be able to correct that great injustice. Now, I just dont even give a d@mn anymore. Why bother?”
I will vote for Rick on Tuesday in Grand Rapids...most I know are going to vote for him...but I gotta tell ya...I have had an average of 3.5 robo calls per day last week, all from Romney.
TV is filled with anti-Santorum ads...it’s gotta have an effect.
If Santorum can pull this out in Michigan, Romney’s home state...it would be huge...I may even say a prayer for his victory...maybe God isn’t normally interested in such things...but what does it hurt?
Guess I assumed the info in the headline answered it, and I wondered why the ?
My reply to you is that he’s doing more than you know, better and differently.
And that this poll snapshot is not a sign of failure of any recent efforts.
We will see. Contrary to your opinion, Newt has an excellent chance in getting back into this thing.
I think it works the other way, too. I supported Perry first and Gingrich second. I have never cared for Santorum and as time has gone on—I like him even less.
At one time I had thought I could vote for Santorum in the primary, if Gingrich dropped. No longer, if Gingrich drops—I am done with the primary—no Romney, no Santorum.
I can care less who is the nominee once Gingrich is gone. I will however vote against Obama when the time comes. After that—I am done with the GOP.
Rick gaining in Arizona? Wow!
American Research Group, Inc.
Presidential Primary Preference:
Primary Voters Feb 23-24 2012
Mitt Romney leads in the Arizona Republican presidential primary with 39%. Romney is followed by Rick Santorum with 35%, Newt Gingrich with 11%, and Ron Paul with 9%.
In a similar survey conducted February 13-14, 2012, Romney was leading with 38%, followed by Santorum with 31%, Gingrich with 15%, and Paul with 11%. Support for Santorum has increased 4 percentage points since the last survey and support for Romney has increased 1 percentage point.
Romney leads Santorum 50% to 29% among likely Republican primary voters saying they have already voted through early voting.
WOW! Santorum leads Romney 41% to 29% among likely Republican primary voters saying they will vote on February 28.
Santorum leads with 44% among likely Republican primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, followed by Romney with 34%, Gingrich with 18%, and Paul with 1%. Among likely primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 44%, followed by Santorum with 25%, Paul with 18%, and Gingrich with 3%.
Santorum leads Romney 43% to 32% among men, followed by Gingrich with 13% and Paul with 10%. Romney leads Santorum 47% to 26% among women, followed by Gingrich with 9% and Paul with 8%.
It makes little sense to believe that in all the world...metaphorically speaking of course...only Rick Santorum can beat Romney and Obama.
That isn’t true.
Re, your tagline, Rush and Levin are wrong.
Michael Reagan and Ollie North and the fine people who have endorsed Newt are right.
Sarah Palin has all but done so, and her hubby has done so.
Had to happen. This process is far from over.
Based on what? His incredibly high negatives or him not gaining any traction in any of the upcoming states. Like it or not, if you look at the poll chart, Newt isn’t benefiting from the Santorum slump. Mittens is.
I guess Republicans are going to have to get used to praying in the direction of Salt Lake City......
well, duh? Newt fans on FR should know that, unless they are for Mitt.
There aren't any more debates, and even one he did fairly well in didn't move his numbers.
I don't know why it drives me so crazy that people can't think analytically rather than in terms of wishful thinking.
Do people think winning Georgia on a day with 10 other primaries and caucuses will actually matter
Based on Newt is the superior candidate and time. Still much time left and 80 to 90% of delegates are left to be won. How long did it take Rick to get in the game? He was mired for months in single digits. Newt has been on top twice before and can be again.
Plus, Red Steel, Newt is strongest in the South, where there are a disproportionately large number of delegates. He leads many places there now, including Super Tuesday’s biggest delegate state of Georgia; and if Rick continues to fall, Newt will sweep-up in the South, probably running the table there.
Most of the wishful thinking comes from the Santo supporters who post incessant polls that are obsolete in this volatile election.
Yes I expect to see Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas to go along with Georgia for Newt.
For all interesting, live stream to California GOP Convention where Gingrich is scheduled to speak right now (he’s running a bit late.)
It makes sense to me because I’ve studied the voting Demographics.
Tell me in a 1 on 1, how Newt beats Romney outside the South in states with large Senior, Hispanic, and female populations, the same 3 Demographics that Romney obliterated Newt with in NH, FL, and NV?
Additionally, please tell me how Newt gets to 270 Electoral Votes? I’ve studied the voting Demographics over a dozen states (mostly battlegrounds). You wanna go county by county, we can do that. Of the 12 Battlegrounds excluding OH, FL, VA, NC, and IN which is essentially must wins for Republicans to win, tell me where that last state comes from (NH, PA, MI, WI, IA, NM, CO, NV).
Is Newt going to win NH? Doubt it. In PA, sure he’ll run higher margins than McCain in Lancaster, York, and the other conservative parts of the state, but Newt will NOT carry Delware, Berks, Bucks, Montgomery, and the surrounding Philadelphia suburbs, which will hinder any chances at winning the state. Newt has shown no strength in the Midwest or in CO, and Tancredo hammered Newt on his immigration stance. Newt has been crushed by Hispanics in NM and NV where even a Rubio might not even make a difference.
As for Santorum, except for NH, he’s got excellent chances to sweep ALL of those states. PA, MI,WI,IA and the entire midwest might actually swing red. He has the strong backing of CO’s most popular politician, and he is not toxic which the groups that have been turned off by Newt (Seniors, Hispanics, Women).
But what do I know? We’ve heard after all that the Election this year will be a phone-in after the debates to choose an American President. /sarc
Huntsman and Perry must be kicking themselves for leaving this thing a week or two early...
For all interested, that is (not interesting); I seem to be making a lot of grammatical mistakes today.
I wonderr what the absentee to booth
Voting ratio is.
No, Newt was and still is their best hope.
Their tired of having their candidate shot down not just by the MSM but by their own conservative people. Its turning them off and there beginning to capitulate.
Now you know how Newt supporters feel. No one was more hammered by the so-called conservative media and establishment more than him.
We Newt supporters tried to tell everybody that if they backed off of Newt and went to Rick instead after Florida, they would hand the election to Romney. We pointed to what happened with Huckabee in 2008 splitting the conservative vote. The conservative vote can not afford to be divided against Romney in this primary if we are to win. We tried to tell everyone that Santorum only looked like a better alternative to some because he hadn't been vetted and tested under fire like Newt had. We said that the best thing that could happen for conservatives was for Rick to drop out of the race and let the votes coalesce around Newt. People didn't listen. They let a month's worth of media, money and momentum go to Rick instead of Newt, just setting him up for a big fall once Romney unleashed his attack machine.
It is the Rick supporters (in addition to the Romney supporters of course) who will be responsible for handing this election to Romney if that's what happens. The Newt supporters have been right on track and on the path to victory all along. They are backing the candidate who has been battle-tested and proven his resiliency and ability to succeed on a large scale on the national level throughout his career. There's precious little time for support to come back to Newt now, but that HAS to happen for Romney to be defeated. Newt has been showing again in the debate and in an ongoing string of fantastic speeches and policy proposals that he is still the heavyweight in the room and I hope it starts resonating with people.
If you’re not willing to say that a sinner who has repented, reformed and changed their ways is just as moral as someone who has never sinned in their entire life, then you are not following the teachings of Jesus Christ. In fact, you can argue the Bible says those reformed people are even more worthy of the kingdom of Heaven than those who always led moral lives.
Well, try to "analyze" a way for Newt to win because now that Specter has blown Santorum's bullshit to high heaven, he's dead meat.