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To: AnTiw1
if you're saying you're going to get a 90% turnout of Catholics who are likewise going to vote in bloc against Romney

Who said that? Many catholics are Dems, some are lazy and won't vote, and yes some will vote for Romney.

Same for Protestants.

But the Mormon bloc is small in comparison to all these other votes in AZ and I doubt Brewer is in any way beholden to them.

Who says I'm so emotionally invested? I'm just peacefully debating an issue logically with a stranger on a thread.

98 posted on 02/26/2012 1:22:33 PM PST by what's up
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To: what's up

look, i’m going to explain this so somebody in elementary school can understand it...

say Arizona is populated by 100 people

say 20% of the people actually show up to vote...that’s twenty people

the republican vote is being split between three candidates...lets say each candidate gets an even share of the NON-MORMON vote

now, you’ve already stipulated 5% of Arizona is Mormon, and evidence shows in past causes that affected the lds, they have turned out in 80% numbers to vote in bloc as reported by the WSJ for Prop 8 in CA, i think the numbers will be closer to 90% to elect the first Mormon president

of that 20% turnout, just to make it easier i’m rounding that 90% to 100% and say all five Mormons in this community of 100 show up...since you have 20% as the figure for overall voter turnout, of that 20 people 15 will be non-mormons and split their vote between Romney, Newt, and Santorum equally
thats 5 votes apeice...then the mormons do their voting as a bloc and Romney has a 2-1 advantage

the solution, you either have to have one candidate drop out, or double the voter turnout for this simple balance to at least break even in your favor

i know this is simplistic, but this is an illustration of how they did Prop 8 right in SoCal in the middle of fruit and nut town, and the only way the gay politìcal machine got rid of Prop 8 was by a hell of a lot of activism and money to produce a 60%+ turnout to repeal it

i don’t know if you get it or not, but a small number of “for sure” voters really does balance out five times their number when only one out of five of the opposition goes to vote...in my county, we had only 13% turnout...i hope Arizona does better...and i hope someone else takes over the remedial math lesson, because i’m done


103 posted on 02/26/2012 2:03:23 PM PST by AnTiw1
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