Posted on 02/27/2012 7:39:07 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009
Front-runners Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are in a virtual tie with the former Massachusetts governor up by just two points as the Michigan Republican Primary race comes down to the wire.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan, taken Sunday night, finds Romney will 38% support to Santorum’s 36%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remain far behind with 11% and 10% of the vote respectively. One percent (1%) likes another candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) remains undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Santorum is coming back!
Santorum has outperformed polls in just about every state, I hope this trend continues.
Santorum is a fiscal conservative.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/was-santorum-senate-spendthrift_629850.html
National Taxpayer Union career scorecard:
Santorum 76%
Gingrich 61%
They are not counting the Newt supporters. Many will probably vote for Santorum since Newt left the state.
Can any Michigan freepers tell if Romney’s been carpet-bombing their state with negative ads?
I would hope the Santorum bashers would cool their jets long enough to allow Santorum to deliver a knockout blow to Romney in Michigan. If Mitt gets the boot, then Santorum and Newt can go head-to-head and let the best conservative candidate win.
From last poll...
Romney -2
Santorum +2
I would vote for Newt.
It’s all gonna come down to turn out. You Santorum supporters in MI ... not a 1 of you can fail to vote. Get the word out! Give ppl rides to the polls. We can do this!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Santorum 2012
YEP! Santorums go the big MO! in Michigan!
WOOT!
Come on everyone we can DO this!!!!!
Mitt MUST be stopped!
You have got that right. I hope the Newt people will cross to Santorums side in Michigan to give him a win over Romney. Romney is carpetbombing Santorum in Michigan and so is Ron Paul. If you notice, Newt is not bashing Santorum. He knows it would only hurt the goal of taking Romney out.
Every poll right now is showing the Michigan primary to be a dead heat, though the momentum in each appears to be swinging back in Santorum’s direction since the debate last week. Santorum has also been outperforming his poll numbers in recent primaries and if recent history repeats itself could be enough to put him over the top tomorrow night. At worst, Romney wins Michigan by the skin of his teeth, though that will widely be seen as a black eye for the governor given the high expectations for him in his home state.
Right now, I’m feeling pretty good about Santorum tomorrow night and going into Super Tuesday.
People against Santorum aren’t bashers.
Are people against Newt, “bashers”, in your book?
Oh, of course not.
And that discrepancy is called two faced, double standard, self serving drivel, etc...
If I’m a Michigan resident and Newt supporter, I’m voting Santorum on Tuesday.
Here’s the RCP average for Santorum and his final results.
Iowa RCP: 16.3
Iowa Final: 24.6
New Hampshire RCP: 11.5
New Hampshire Final: 9.4
South Carolina RCP: 11.8
South Carolina Final: 17.0
Florida RCP: 13.0
Florida Final: 13.4
Nevada RCP (only two polls): 9.5
Nevada Final: 9.9
Colorado RCP (only one poll): 27
Colorado Final: 40.3
Minnesota RCP (only one poll): 33
Minnesota Final: 45
Missouri RCP: 45
Missouri Final: 55.2
A Santorum vote in Michigan is ultimately the only way to help Newt.
I’m hoping Sarah Palin will go on Fox News tonight and deliver one of her “if I were a Michigan voter, I’d probably vote for Santorum to keep this process going” endorsements. If she does, I’m convinced that will give Santorum the edge he needs to chalk up Michigan in the win column!
Sorry I can’t do that as much as I try.
I am having as many problems with those supporting Rick as with Rick himself.
1. Give it up, Rick Santorum is not Ronald Reagan, not even close. He can not communicate like Ronnie and he does not have his persoanl warmth. Can he get better, yes. Can he get enough better to win. He hasn’t yet.
2. You can not turn Rick Santorum into a fiscal conservative no matter how hard you try. Admittedly there are not many true fiscal conservatives around. Ron Paul is the closest we have and he disqualifies himself with a naviee view of radical Islam. So support him but stop trying to tell me he is something he ain’t.
3. Rick’s rise in the polls is due to a lack of anyone that his supporters deem worthy. Hey, I am with them on Romney, I will not support him either. But they build up Rick in their minds because they are desperate for someone to come in a save the day. Can Rick do that, I have grave doubts.
4. Rick’s supporters see family values as having 1 wife and a nice family, supporting pro life positions and traditional marriage. I concur and it is Rick’s strong suit. Is it enough to get him elected. Not if he does not learn a better way of telling people who disagree with him why he will be their President too. Yes, that is important.
5. Rick Santourm’s baggage is just as heavy as all the rest of the candidates, just different. Like it or not, Rick has said things in the past (most of which I agree)that sound extreme. Not because they are, but because of the way he says them.
6. Ricks raise in the polls was impressive but very sharp. He can fall just as quickly.
Liberal and establishment trolls are making a big push to defeat Santorum in Michigan. They want Romney to win.
A vote for Santorum in Michigan is a vote for America and against the socialist takeover of our country.
“A Santorum vote in Michigan is ultimately the only way to help Newt.”
If Santorum wins Michigan, Newt is done.
ConservativeTeen wrote:
<<
Here’s the RCP average for Santorum and his final results.
Iowa RCP: 16.3
Iowa Final: 24.6
New Hampshire RCP: 11.5
New Hampshire Final: 9.4
South Carolina RCP: 11.8
South Carolina Final: 17.0
Florida RCP: 13.0
Florida Final: 13.4
Nevada RCP (only two polls): 9.5
Nevada Final: 9.9
Colorado RCP (only one poll): 27
Colorado Final: 40.3
Minnesota RCP (only one poll): 33
Minnesota Final: 45
Missouri RCP: 45
Missouri Final: 55.2
>>
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Interesting comparisons... Santorum has outperformed his RCP poll numbers in every state, but one (New Hampshire). But even more eye-opening is how he exceeded expectations in the past three state primaries/caucuses (Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado) by an astounding average of 12 POINTS!
I think Rick has every reason to feel good about tomorrow night and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Arizona primary turns out to be much closer than the poll numbers are indicating.
I was thinking more along the lines of if Santorum wins Michigan, Romney is done.
“I think Rick has every reason to feel good about tomorrow night and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Arizona primary turns out to be much closer than the poll numbers are indicating.”
You are exactly right. Willard always overpolls. Santorum is gonna have a big night.
You mean, the people calling him 'St. Rick' aren't bashing him?
There is too much low-grade crap being slung by both sides. I lean towards Newt myself, but I ain't gonna bad-mouth Santorum the way some folks have lately.
If Romney loses Michigan.... his whole campaign would implode and he could be out after Super Tuesday, leaving the real conservatives to battle it out :P
I hope she does. Romney losing Michigan is big!
Both Romney and Santorum won 4 states so far. Newt won 1. If tomorrow Romney wins Arizona and Santorum wins Michigan this will become a two man race and the anti-romneys will consolidate behind Santorum.
Maybe. There is still one really good reason for Newt to hang in there. The possibility that Rick Santorum really steps into the next few days after the Michigan and Arizona. He is quite capable of doing that, just like all fo the candidates. Rick could fail just as fast has he spiked. Seen this happen more times than I can count. After South Carolina the call was for Rick to pull out. Hmmmm. We will see. You could be right, but I will wait and see.
Steps into ‘it’ that is.
You are right to do that. It’s called strategy. If we want to take Romney out, then he has to be defeated in Michigan. Gingrich himself realizes that and that’s why he pulled his resources out of Michigan to help Santorum win. If Santorum wins, it keeps the big MO out of Romney’s court and increases the chance of defeating him.
If Romney wins Michigan, Newt is done as well. His chances are much better if Santorum wins.
Agreed.
“If Romney wins Michigan, Newt is done as well.”
Nope. Newt is not competing in Michigan. Realistically, he’ll only get back in the game if Santorum implodes.
I feel comfortable saying that if Romney loses Michigan, the chance for a brokered convention that doesn’t include Romney is very good.
Whether that would help Newt or Rick, I don’t know, and frankly, I don’t care. We need to stop Romney, and then get a conservative candidate that can beat Obama. It doesn’t really matter if that conservative is Newt, or Rick, or some other person, so long as they can be widely accepted by the conservative and republican communities, and will generate enthusiasm and drive turnout for both presidential and congressional races.
But we’ll never get there so long as Romney is seen as a viable candidate. So the first step has to be to knock Romney out, no matter which candidate it helps.
And with that, I think I just talked myself into voting for Ron Paul in Virginia — something I hadn’t been able to bring myself to do yet.
I’m not counting on anything good from Arizona. Romney already had momentum there, and the governor is well-respected in the state GOP and conservative circles.
I think it would be best if the focus was not on Arizona, because I’m sure that Romney will be trying to make ALL the talk on Wednesday be about Arizona, especially if he loses Michigan.
“Gingrich himself realizes that and that’s why he pulled his resources out of Michigan to help Santorum win.”
I’m pretty sure he never said that. If he wanted to help Santorum he would have kept his resources in Michigan to take Romney down. He left because he didn’t think he could win.
I don’t think Newt pulled out for that reason, any more than I think Santorum pulled out of Florida specifically to help Gingrich.
I think in both cases, doing so helped the other; but they did it because they have limited resources and couldn’t afford to throw money and time away in an obvious losing cause.
If they really pulled out to help the other candidate, they would also tell their supporters directly to vote for the other candidate; Santorum didn’t do that in Florida, and Gingrich hasn’t done that in Michigan (nor would I expect them to).
“Newt is not competing in Michigan. Realistically, he’ll only get back in the game if Santorum implodes.” - Absolutely right. There will never be a two man race between Newt and Rick and if there were Rick would win because of the social vote. If you are a Michigander for Newt you need to either vote for Newt or even Romney. Newt needs Santorum to get beaten and fade out. This race has always been and will always be Romney vs the not-Romney. Santorum is the current not-romney. If Newt wants a shot at Romney, Santorum has to go. I like Newt and that’s my hope. Whether you agree or not the logic is sound. If you are a Santorum guy you need to be doing everything you can not to knock out Mitt but to knock out Newt. The not-Romney is the majority, whoever stands there last wins.
“This race has always been and will always be Romney vs the not-Romney. Santorum is the current not-romney. If Newt wants a shot at Romney, Santorum has to go.”
Bingo! Santorum was even campaigning in Georgia a few weeks ago. His aim is clearly to drive Newt out of the race.
THERE IS STILL TIME TO DRIVE ROMNEY OUT OF THIS RACE. IF HE LOSES MI, HE’S TOAST. CALL, E-MAIL, FACEBOOK OR TWEET EVERYBODY YOU KNOW IN MI & TELL THEM TO VOTE AGAINST RINO-ROM & DRIVE HIM FROM THIS RACE. DO AMERICA A FAVOR MICHIGAN; VOTE SANTORUM.
reasonisfaith wrote:
<<
I was thinking more along the lines of if Santorum wins Michigan, Romney is done.
>>
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If Romney loses Michigan, I wouldn’t say he’s “done” but he will no doubt be badly wounded going forward. Bear in mind he still has the staunch backing of the GOP establishment and lots of cash to burn.
If Romney wins the nomination, we all lose.
Your Post #35 is spot on.
If Romney loses Michigan, he begins to crumble.
Exactly! We can do this!!
Santorum 2012
No, I didn’t hear him say that. But I can’t help thinking that’s what he’s thinking. It would make sense for him to strategize that.
You get it, rif. Thanks.
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