Skip to comments.The Iranian Nuclear Program: Timelines, Data, and Estimates
Posted on 02/27/2012 7:47:46 AM PST by nuconvert
We assess that Iran, continuing to operate PFEP and FFEP under the current conditions described by the International Atomic Energy Agency, will have 85 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 20% in April 2012. This amount will be enough for Iran to produce 15 kg of weapons-grade uranium for one bomb within 3 months using the more-efficient interconnected cascades installed at FFEP for the final enrichment step to 90%.
A more immediate breakout scenario, in which Iran races to produce additional material enriched to 20% at FEP and then enriches to 90% there in its operational centrifuges, would result in a drastically shorter timeline for Irans acquisition of bomb fuel.
(Excerpt) Read more at irantracker.org ...
Wow. Very Very Interesting. The “Window” for deterence is closing. Set the countdown clock for BOOM on April 1.
Good post, solid report. If they can get only 3 of their P-2 cascades (164 centrifuges each) working, going from 20% to 90%, enough for a bomb would take 2-3 months. Even with their old P-1’s they could easily do it in a year.
Fordu is 300 foot deep at the entrance, completely self contained, no way to stop their enrichment.
So they’ll get a bomb sometime within the next month or so. Then they should be able to build some more bombs within the next year or so. I would sadly predict that they’ll test their first weapon somewhere near Tel Aviv, perhaps in a suicide flotilla, maybe by more traditional methods, so that means by the end of 2012. God help us.