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The Iranian Nuclear Program: Timelines, Data, and Estimates
AEI / IranTracker ^ | Maseh Zarif

Posted on 02/27/2012 7:47:46 AM PST by nuconvert

Key Findings

-excerpt-

•We assess that Iran, continuing to operate PFEP and FFEP under the current conditions described by the International Atomic Energy Agency, will have 85 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 20% in April 2012. This amount will be enough for Iran to produce 15 kg of weapons-grade uranium for one bomb within 3 months using the more-efficient interconnected cascades installed at FFEP for the final enrichment step to 90%.

A more immediate breakout scenario, in which Iran races to produce additional material enriched to 20% at FEP and then enriches to 90% there in its operational centrifuges, would result in a drastically shorter timeline for Iran’s acquisition of bomb fuel.

(Excerpt) Read more at irantracker.org ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: iran; nukes

1 posted on 02/27/2012 7:47:52 AM PST by nuconvert
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To: nuconvert

Wow. Very Very Interesting. The “Window” for deterence is closing. Set the countdown clock for BOOM on April 1.


2 posted on 02/27/2012 8:33:42 AM PST by Remole
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To: nuconvert

Good post, solid report. If they can get only 3 of their P-2 cascades (164 centrifuges each) working, going from 20% to 90%, enough for a bomb would take 2-3 months. Even with their old P-1’s they could easily do it in a year.

Fordu is 300 foot deep at the entrance, completely self contained, no way to stop their enrichment.


3 posted on 02/27/2012 11:18:08 AM PST by gandalftb (11th MEU, 2/4 Echo, TRAP Force)
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To: nuconvert

So they’ll get a bomb sometime within the next month or so. Then they should be able to build some more bombs within the next year or so. I would sadly predict that they’ll test their first weapon somewhere near Tel Aviv, perhaps in a suicide flotilla, maybe by more traditional methods, so that means by the end of 2012. God help us.


4 posted on 02/28/2012 8:50:16 PM PST by redpoll
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