Skip to comments.Romney Wins Gives Gingrich Glimmer of Hope
Posted on 02/29/2012 6:35:47 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Whether Newt Gingrichs political team realized it or not, they escaped sudden death with Mitt Romneys wins in Arizona and Michigan. While the Gingrich team spoke of the need to see Mitt Romney lose his home state the reality of Rick Santorum going down after his campaign and the PAC supporting him spent a fortune in Michigan is stark. The bloom is now officially off the Santorum rose.
Enter Gingrich, who has (to use a Newt phrase) frankly been out of money and unable to compete or even defend himself in states where he could have been or is competitive. The pro-Gingrich PAC has suddenly received a major cash infusion from its greatest proponent just in time to save the former Speaker of the House from endless negative Romney associated ads in Gingrichs home state of Georgia. In addition, the Gingrich forces now have ads up in numerous states where they believe their man can accumulate delegates
The Gingrich PACs Georgia ad is of mediocre quality, but drives the central issue of questioning Romneys true conservative bona fides. It will likely be enough to give Newt Gingrich a win in the Peach State, allowing him some (if not scant) time to aim at a few other states. With Santorums drop Gingrich could become a last minute substitute for the anyone but Mitt vote in Tennessee and Oklahoma. With so little time left, Ohio becomes problematic for Gingrich. But Alaska and several other states could yield delegates to Newt.
On the other hand, Mitt Romneys camp will now be able to argue that a protracted nomination process is hurting the GOP and chances of defeating President Obama. Hillary Clinton heard the same from Obama supporters on 2008a fact often forgotten four years later.
What Gingrich, Santorum, and Ron Paul must now hope for is a shredding apart of proportional delegates until the big prize of Texas comes up for grabs. Ironically, under GOP national rules, Romneys wins in Florida and Arizona (both winner take all states) can be challenged at the convention in Tampa. But Texas, which was to be a proportional state, may become a winner take all contest given uncertainty over redistricting and the possibility that the state might have to move the date of its primary backfar enough to allow it to become a truly sanctioned winner take all state.
Gingrich is likely hoping to collect just enough delegates to stay alive until Texas when he (and his supporter Governor Rick Perry) can deliver a huge number of delegates. Like Gingrich, Rick Santorum will likely continue on collecting delegates as he can. And of course, Ron Paul will be in the contest until the end.
Next Tuesdays Super vote is right around the corner. Mitt Romney has the momentum, if not the heart of his party, on his side. For Gingrich this is an opportunity to become relevant and perhaps even significant in the battle for the nomination. If that should occur, the convention will likely have no individual with the necessary votes needed to win the nomination. But if Gingrich fails to become relevant in the next week, then Santorum will melt and Romney will have punched his ticket to the final dance (a little March Madness language for our NCAA basketball fans!).
“I would be happy with President Romney, Gingrich, Santorum or Paul. “
2 nightmares I’d like to see over soon:
- the Obama administration
- this GOP presidential primary race
A Romney win in Michigan was no insult to Santorum, but Santorum made it an ego prize. A foolish mistake, IMHO.
Santorum is solid conservative but untested, favored by democrats, helped by cross-voting, strongly favored by strong conservatives, will be around to the end, probably by 32% votes and delegate count.
Romney is fierce combatant, questionable conservative background,favored by moderate wing and independent, promoted by political leaders,so he will be on top, not by much, to the end, maybe 35% votes and delegates.
Newt is intellectual, intelligent, most capable leader, severed flawed with the adultery past, most feared by mainstream media, Obama, and liberals,neutral with independent, less favored by strong conservative,most capable beating Obama in general election, maybe gathering around 20% vote and delegates at the convention time.
Ron Paul is not a factor, probably with final 10% vote and delegates.
At the brokered convention, Newt will be nominated because he is the most well-liked guy by all other candidates, our last hope who can beat Obama, and because Santorum and Romney mutually destroy each other.
I feel good about our chance to remove Obama before we lose our country for good.
Interesting take and if it holds up, Texas will finally be in a position to be influential in the primary process.
I think the author is a bit overstating Santorum’s fall—he did much better than anyone expected a short while back.
I think the thing is — his rise was weirdly meteoric with no clear reason for it, except maybe dislike of Romney and fear of Newt.
They and I mean “THEY” have managed to paint Santorum as something of a religious fanatic who would introduce a theocracy. Ridiculous, but he hasn’t defended well.
That caused his slight dip and a lot of people think Mitt is safe and could win. Moderates do not realize how much conservatives don’t care for Mitt.
This Michigan thing was not such a huge deal. It’s proportional and Rick S. was only a few percentage points behind.
There was so much hysteria when Free Republic finally came up yesterday that I probably made a few (more) enemies posting my disgust.
First off, I want to say congrats to Senator Santorum. That was a heck of a result in the face of attack ads and the MSM trying to set the agenda. (does the S stand for Stream or Slime? Can never remember!) To me, that close a result in a supposed “locked” state is a huge win.
My tag line is as it is simply because the two of them together would be unbeatable. Speaker Gingrich has the plans, the ideas, the policies and the experience to be probably the most amazing President America has has in a century - and I am not disrespecting President Reagan by saying that. Times are different now. President Reagan had a clear enemy to point to. He took them down hard. We don’t have that now.
Senator Santorum has the social conservative issues locked tight. He does not just preach them (to borrow a newish MSM meme) - he LIVES them. Gotta respect that, though it is going to make independants as uncomfortable as Speaker Gingrich’s “baggage” makes the social conservatives, even here on FR.
My personal preferences are on record - my posting history is an open book (except for a few that got pulled for profanity - that being a particular problem of mine!).
Speaker Gingrich has the vision, the plan, and, to be blunt from a foreign perspective, the ability to get on with the allies of the USA. Though my initial preferences were Governors Palin and Perry in either order, the Speaker has grown on me.
I follow the ping list for Senator Santorum too. I respect him. Admire him in a lot of ways. As one very strong supporter says frequently on his threads (sorry mate, your name escapes me a moment, but you know who you are!), you don’t stay senator for 10 years in a blue state and keep a good conservative rating without both courage and conviction.
You know - this time the USA needs BOTH of the conservative candidates in the race. Not either / or. And if I can see that from 3000 miles away, why can’t they?
Practically speaking, I would like Speaker Gingrich as president for three reasons. He has a firm plan. Knows exactly where the bodies are buried (as a Newt supporter says on here, he knows ‘cause he buried them) And he can communicate.
He is also getting older, and the damage is going to take a lot of time to roll back. Sen. Santorum is young enough to run a term or two as VP then take over. Govs. Palin and Perry likewise - and those are two people I would love to see in government.
Why am I, someone who does not live in the same country or have any alliegence to it beyond the ties of affection to individual people getting so worked up here?
I live right now in a country you will live in within 3 years. I have children and grandchildren. I want them to be able to point to the one country on earth that - in spite of the ridiculously stacked odds against it - worked as a country of free, individual yet united citizens. Move there if they wish to.
Good lord, that was deeper than I meant it to be!
Get back in your tent unless you can stop saying dumb stuff. I heard enough of that yesterday.
Anyone who would vote for Obama should be banned, zotted, tarred, feathered and ridden out of town on a rail.
Not defending well against the Romney/Paul machine in a debate makes it much easier to believe the negative attack ads.
Amen. I won’t have a single friend left here if this goes on much longer.
I hear a lot about a brokered convention. As I understand it, this would be determined by the delegates elected from various states.
It would happen only if no candidate had a majority at the end of the nominating process. Highly unlikely.
And then the wheeling and dealing would start. We have no idea how that would end, but the chances of someone not already in the race are miniscule.
Not sure I want to take the chance on that. I think Romney would take it.
Newt is far and away the best and brightest of the crowd. A debate between Newt and Obama would be a joke, there would be an obvious difference of something like 100 IQ points, sort of like a prize fight between Joe Louis and Little WeeWee Jones.
Not me because Romney WILL NOT repeal Obamacare. He's saying that he will now to get elected but in the general he will cater to the Dems & Indies who want national healthcare. This country will fail with Obamacare.
One of our non-Romney guys needs to find all the promises Mitt made for Governor and how many actually got done.
I guess Newsweek was right: we really are all socialists now.
Sucks to be a conservative in 2012. :(
It’s a bumpy ride alright.
I think most FReepers understand passion is running high, as it should.
Better than living as a LIBERAL.
Bump for an awesome post! I think you have a great perspective from England to see what a lot here can’t see! What an unbeatable combination that would be.
Let’s all pray that God hears us and sends these great conservative fighters who will LEAD, not just play politics!
I believe if Newt and Rick would team up together, and soon, they could take Romney down very quickly.
I also believe the two together could have an amazing cultural influence on our country, not just politically but bringing back an affection and respect for all around cultural conservatism, dignity and goodness.
I don’t listen to Glenn any longer.
But his words are true as ever.
They fit me, as that is what I try my best to do here on FR.
LOL! That is real clever.
Isn’t it good? I tried to find out something about the group that made the vid, but no luck. They have an almost blank website and some very scant google history, that’s all.