Skip to comments.Quinnipiac: Ohio too close to call (Romney again narrows the gap)
Posted on 03/02/2012 6:44:19 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Last week, the results of a University of Cincinnati ten-day survey showed Rick Santorum up by eleven among likely voters in Ohio, the key Super Tuesday state. However, that was mainly taken before the last debate nine days ago and entirely before Mitt Romney won in both Michigan and Arizona. A new Quinnipiac poll of likely voters in the state taken over the previous three days shows Santorum still leading, but now within the margin of error:
The Republican presidential face-off in Ohio is too close to call as former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has 35 percent of likely Republican primary voters to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s 31 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 36 – 29 percent Santorum lead in a February 27 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll, the day before the hotly-contested Michigan primary. …
Santorum leads Romney 34 – 28 percent among men and 37 – 33 percent among women, 40 – 27 percent among self-described conservatives and 42 – 25 percent among Tea Party members. Romney leads Santorum 46 – 26 percent among self-described moderates.
It would be interesting to see the breakdown of results from Tuesday’s survey responses — before Romney’s win in Michigan — and on Wednesday and Thursday after the sweep. Quinnipiac doesn’t mention it, but it would surprise me if the result in Michigan had no impact, especially since Quinnipiac did that one-day survey on Monday and found a seven-point lead for Santorum. The change between the two is subtle, entirely within the margin of error, but the results of each day might indicate whether it’s real or not.
There are a few interesting points to note in the internals, mostly still favorable for Santorum. He leads Romney among both men (34/28) and women (37/33), the latter within the MOE; so much for the “gender gap,” at least for now. Breakdowns between conservatives and moderates are almost mirror images, with conservatives breaking for Santorum at 40/27 and moderates for Romney at 46/26, an advantage for Romney in a swing state like Ohio. Romney barely edges Santorum among those with college degrees (37/34), a bit of a surprise given the controversial “snob” remarks Santorum made this week in Michigan, but Santorum leads 36/27 among those without college degrees. Santorum also wins two of the three age demos by double digits: 18-49YOs (37/25) and 50-64YOs (40/30). Romney wins seniors 40/27. Favorability is almost dead even, with Romney at 53/34 and Santorum at 57/24, and Santorum does better with women, 55/24 to Romney’s 50/37.
We’ll need to see more polling out of Ohio over the weekend to see whether anyone has momentum. Both candidates will have to spend a lot of time in the state in order to pull out a victory, and Santorum could reestablish credibility by beating Romney in this Rust Belt swing state. However, bear in mind that he will have to do so by a significant margin to overcome the handicap of failing to qualify for delegates in three Congressional districts, at least in terms of delegate allocation. (via Jim Geraghty)
Come on. Don't be shy now. Speak up! We want to hear from you. We want to hear you slam "St. Rick" and "Little Ricky" in favor of your guy, Mitt Romney
Well, it looks like money can buy anything.
Mittens outspent Santorum 40:1 in Michigan and he’s probably outspending him now. But Quinnipiac is run a left-wing liberal Democrat scumbag.
“Well need to see more polling out of Ohio over the weekend to see whether anyone has momentum. Both candidates will have to spend a lot of time in the state in order to pull out a victory, and Santorum could reestablish credibility by beating Romney in this Rust Belt swing state. However, bear in mind that he will have to do so by a significant margin to overcome the handicap of failing to qualify for delegates in three Congressional districts, at least in terms of delegate allocation”
The above are the words to pay attention to. Looks like they have already been playing around with how they will tip it to Mitt. One of their tricks this time is to say people failed to qualify in states and districts.
Did we expect anything different?
Quite so. That's why it's important to get your buddies in the Michigan GOP to fix the delegate count for you.
Romney the chameleon is a bad candidate and will likely lose narrowly to Hussein - but probably won't take our House majority and any chance at winning the Senate back down with him.
Santorum is disaster of a candidate who will lose in a landslide defeat to Obama and leave us utterly destroyed down ballot across the country. So no, I can't root for Rick "hey, lets talk about the evils of condoms and porn instead of the economy" Santorum either.
Newt is our only real option.
What’s the handling and shipping on your “crystal balls”?
Newt is our only real option.
Newt isn’t even mentioned in most states anymore. He is all about Georgia but nothing else. It is either Santorum or Romney in Ohio. Santorum had better win. Anyone who is hoping that Santorum loses Ohio is clearly a Romney supporter.
Newt is our only real option.
In principle, I agree with you.
In reality(chances of being the nominee), good luck with that one.
RE: Well, it looks like money can buy anything.
Which makes me wonder about American voters in general... with the Internet, Talk Radio and so many blogs, and news outlets available for your without you having to leave your house, why do you need someone to spend millions of dollars to help you make up your mind?
Can’t you make your mind up for yourself?
The sudden rise of Santorum was poorly planned or thought out. It was mostly a knee-jerk reaction to stop Romney. Now that Santorum’s obvious weakness’, that were evident a year ago, are about to cost us another election. It won't change a thing, no matter who or what you blame.
You can blame Romney, money, or all the things you do, but mostly, you have to blame yourselves for your own instability, or lack of attention to detail. The error of putting everything on Santorum, lies with you and you only.
———Well, it looks like money can buy anything.———
Sad, but true. Who’s to blame? The media and the politicians, yes. But also the sheeple. In a republic, we get the government we deserve.
OH cast critical electoral votes for HST in 1948 and can do the same again for Obama. The Buckeyes like to be with “the winner.”
It was not thought out at all. It was a last desperate attempt to stop Romney. I went from mildly anti-Romney this cycle, to the point where I hate his guts. They spent a fortune masterfully playing whack the mole with anyone who threatened Romney's ascendancy. Who are they? Yea, I'm officially paranoid now.
Bear with me.
If the MI voters know any of these candidates then its mittens. They should know all this tricks. They know the bloody Thursday lynching he did to Newt. We know Huntsman was in cahoots with Mittens we are thinking Rupaul is as well hoping for a VP spot for his son.
Santorum had a 10point lead a week before the vote. Both Camps Newt & Santorum smiled. Mittens is losing his Birth state now that going to smell real sweet come Super Tuesday. Santorum believes MI is in play so he goes for the kill. We both smile what if? Santorum basically stays out of the Super Tuesday states where I think he should have been. Yes I like the 14 delegates going to Santorum that is not the point.
Newt stayed away from MI and even asked that his vote be cast for Santorum. Were going to pile it on and let Santorum take out Mittens then we have a conservative battle and let the better man win.
It appears Dems also turned out fairly well for Santorum, Why they turned out does not matter there votes counted. The point is Newts voters that went to Santorum plus the Dems that went for Santorum should have added at least a couple of Point each. So lets say Santorum should now be UP around 15 Points. When in Reality when the votes is taken Santorum is down 3 points.
That means Santorum lost 15-20points in the last week with NO Major events except the debate. Santorum while he stumbled Mittens by know means delivered a knockout blow.
My conclusion is the Polls or less than worthless.
We may have a lot of “Pro Santorum or Pro Newt” on FR sowing discord. If we only knew they were actually Pro Mittens forced underground from fear of the Zot.
You are aware that the same unsubstantiated stuff is said about Newt on the down ballot matter. Wouldn't someone with Newts history this campaign cycle be considered the disaster and not the only guy left competitive who can actually win some states against Milt on Tuesday? Your post reads like an in house memorandum at the RNC.
The tragedy is, our best opportunity to stop this and fix the mess, has been kicked to the side and is rapidly slipping away. There is still hope that Newt can salvage it, but thanks to all the stubborn Santorum fanatics, that possibility is getting thin.
Santorum is a loser. And the result will be, that all of us lose along with him, whether if we agree with it or not.
But the actual certified numbers of democrats who voted for Santorum, was over 9%. Newt voters was closer to 5% for Santorum. So, it is clear that Santorum did not do as well as his supporters claim. Since about 15% of Santorum’s support was a facade.
A favorable poll is lauded and its virtues are extolled with breathtaking enthusiasm. An unfavorable poll is greeted with scorn, disdain and the tired cliche of "left wing liberal Democrat scumbag." That may be true, but it doesn't mean the numbers are wrong.
Who can forget those Keyes supporters who viciously attacked anyone who merely pointed out that Keyes is a weak candidate and they would not believe the polls showing him losing in the primaries or against Obama for the Illinois senate race. Keyes lost by over 1 million to Obama because he is a weak candidate.
McCain vs. Obama - same thing. So my suggestion, instead of going for the cheap cliches, the honest thing to do is to acknowledge that Romney is a strong candidate and figure out how to beat him. I like Santorum, but understand that he has no money, the press is against him and the likelihood of winning is small unless there is some big mistake by Romney.
That exactly our Point. Rupaul is getting mentioned more than Newt.
I am convinced that Santorum or Newt cannot survive without the other one running. Mittens spent 30m in SC and FL to squash Newt by the time OH has voted It will be probably 30m to squash Santorum. Which lead us to a brokered convention which lead us to four more years of Obammy if were not extremely lucky.
Mittens and Obammy dont want Newt even talking about our deficit problems and will do or say anything to keep him out of Washington. The Exact same thing they did to Sarah Palin.
Both Sarah and Newt refused to play the games in Washington. The Immortal sin of not playing “Quid pro quo”
I’m glad Santorum challenged Romney’s position on birth control today. That will seal the deal in Ohio. s/ or /s?
“Desperate attempt to stop Romney”
“I’m officially paranoid now.”
Your starting to sound like me.
My husband and I have already voted.......for SANTORUM.
I think he'll take Ohio. JMHO.
I know Santorum supporters in my life. Nice people, but also isolated nice people. Tend to be extremely religious and very solid in their beliefs, but also very CLOSED to others, and VERY judgemental and unforgiving. To be that way, you have to be STUBBORN and it takes a sort of suspension of awareness of current events and current political realities.
I don’t believe the majority of Americans are like this. I don’t believe the majority of Americans DESERVE this type of judgement brought down upon them...by anyone. That is GOD’s JOB, not the job of human beings.
I believe these people will be our downfall, and then we will watch as these very people will be targeted FIRST by the 2nd Obama administration. It will be horrific to witness.
I sincerely BEG Santorum folks to really think — please LIVE to fight the fight. Because you’re NOT going to live through this one if Obama is re-elected.
FOR GOD SO LOVED THE WORLD.....
“Which makes me wonder about American voters in general... with the Internet, Talk Radio and so many blogs, and news outlets available for your without you having to leave your house, why do you need someone to spend millions of dollars to help you make up your mind?
Cant you make your mind up for yourself?”
This hits the nail on the head. The truth is most people pay very little attention to politics until right before an election. They believe what they see on TV and the media and the experts tell them who is the one to vote for.
Every new state the campaigns roll into, Romney is already there running those ads on radio and TV 24/7 turning them off on any of the other candidates.
The other guys have an uphill climb and not enough cash to rebut the Romney ads.
Rick or Newt may be able to grab attention and poll well until the Romney machine rolls them over and out. It keeps happening over and over. The deck is stacked and each of these states seem to have some little thing that comes up to benefit Romney when the delegates get doled out. Ohio is just another one. Funny how we hear very little about what little thing will benefit Romney until the primary is over.
I don't believe that's true.
There's a large anti-Romney contingent in the GOP electorate. There's also large anti-Gingrich and anti-Santorum contingencies.
My sense is that the anti-Santorum contingent is the only one now growing.
The average Ameican today probably uses the Internet to play video games, access porn sites and otherwise waste their time.
Instead of Talk Radio, they listen to the Sports, aweful music and comical idiots like Imus.
They get their news from CBS, NBC, CBS and CNN between watching “Dancing with the Stars” the Superbowl and Reality shows.
What do we expect?
Well, right now, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich are going nowhere. Santorum was our last hope.
So since you are obviously a Romney backer, or are hoping for a brokered convention with Mitch “The Muslim Lover” Daniels, Jeb “Brother of George” Bush, or Chris “Ten Ton Muslim Man” Christie getting chosen, I suppose you are grinning from ear to ear.
Yes. It’s sad. The average voter in my county could not name more than a few of the following:
(1) state representative
(2) state senator
(3) Congressional rep
(4) County District Attorney [very important position relevant to our quality of life—sets the tone for law enforcement for the entire county!]
(5) elected county administrators
(6) any member of the school board (over half our property taxes)
I could go on. It’s really sad. But they sure know all of the contestants on popular TV reality shows or members of local sports teams.
Well, the press is against anyone who isn’t Romney - RIGHT NOW. Just like they were against anyone but McCain back in 2008 BEFORE THE NOMINATION.
I think Quinnipiac is overrated and biased. Its the OTHER polls which worry me.
I don’t like Romney, but if it goes to a brokered convention with Jeb, Daniels and Christie at the top of the list, it could be a lot worse.
I want the msot conservative candidate possibile to beat Obama.
If we can’t get one, I guess I’m stuck with Romney. Right now I would vote for Mickey Mouse if he ran against Obama and I very well may be forced to!!!
I think Santorum would be a disaster, and would drag down a November ticket in a way no other Republican in the field would.
I support Newt, and plan on voting for Newt in Ohio on Tuesday. For all his flaws, he is the only candidate capable of articulating Reagan's small-government conservative (not the kind Santorum likes) vision in a manner that appeals to a large segment of the population. And most importantly given the flasw all of them have, he is the only one rhetorically capable of digging himself out of a hole, and turning the tables on his attacker. He is brilliant at that.
And yes, I know knew was critical of Reagan on some occasions. But he was critical from the right, which I can accept.
But of the four Republicans currently in the race, Santorum would be my last choice because of the effect I think he would have on the rest of the ticket.
So you want a big union supporter. We need a fiscal conservative like Newt, not a big spender like Santorum.