If this continues for the next 48 hours, it would constitute a 20+ point collapse for Santorum and a strong surge for Newt in the South.
Posted on 03/04/2012 8:56:20 AM PST by red flanker
Contra Michigan, early voting may save Santorum in TN. Basically a 3 way tie among election day voters, but he's up with early ones.
One thing that is clear this election, MOMENTUM is everything. Which ever direction it is headed right before a primary, that is the way it usually turns out.
Your post made my day! Thank you!
LOVE IT!
Regrettably, red, today Rasmussen has it Rick 34 R 30 NEWT 18.
I’m hoping that the PPP tweet- has the latest #’s.
This was so predictable. Santorum is going to collapse, and be washed away by a Gingrich tidal wave in the South on Super Tuesday. He looks to be in big trouble in Ohio too.
All take note. It's Rasmussen vs. PPP.
At least one of them will be a poor predictor of what will happen on Tuesday in TN.
A swing to Gingrich...and regrettably Romney...is underway. It's happening very, very quickly.
I would not be surprised to see Santorum finish 3rd or 4th in TN.
“One thing that is clear this election, MOMENTUM is everything”
Exactly right and hopefully Newt has it timed correctly. Newt has the NEWMENTUM. Rick has a boulder tied around his waist and is dropping fast. GO NEWT GO!
From your mouth to God’s ears!:)
Let’s rev it up in the south! GO NEWT! btw..love the “Die Hard” logo!
I would not be surprised to see Santorum finish 3rd or 4th in TN.
That is typical Newt placement. He has finished last in so many states that he is comfortable there. Newt will win Georgia and only Georgia on Tuesday. Of course that will be enough for him to stay in....roll eyes.
They don’t? Why sir, why on earth would that be the case? ;)
Details: Newt still ahead of Santorum in total vote count and total committed delegate count.
YEP, sure is.
You’re a purchasing agent and bean counter type, right? Shouldn’t such things matter to you?
If this holds up, rather than being another PPP attempt to move the voters, congratulations are in order for nominee Romney and President Obama. Romney would likely get 300+ of the 466 delegates up on Tuesday. This would put Romney at 40% of the needed delegates with 35% of them assigned. Since the polls show a large block of “Even the Devil is better than Obama voters,” the Romney-Paul combine would be in the driver’s seat.
Or, to put it more simply, Santorum is down; Romney is up; Newt is nearly unchanged.
I’m hoping the story about Romney’s USA Today op-ed from 2009 urging Obama to incorporate an individual mandate in his health care reform plan will gain some traction on talk radio and alternative media outlets tomorrow. If it does, that may reverse the momentum Romney currently seems to have going into Super Tuesday. After all, Romney has been claiming repeatedly throughout the debates that he’s against an individual mandate on a federal level, yet his 2009 op-ed reveals his total hypocrisy on this issue.
If you have a link we could send it to MSM and talk show hosts still today, just in case they haven’t seen it.
trappedincanuckistan wrote:
<<
This was so predictable. Santorum is going to collapse, and be washed away by a Gingrich tidal wave in the South on Super Tuesday. He looks to be in big trouble in Ohio too.
>>
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I wouldn’t get too overjoyed about Santorum being in trouble in Ohio because if he doesn’t win, then Romney will win that very key state and thus be in a very strong position to wrap up the GOP nomination regardless of how well Gingrich performs in the southern states.
Let’s be careful not to overlook the forest for the trees here.
http://blog.al.com/breaking/2012/02/tennessees_early_voting_for_ma.html
Early voting in Tenn appears to light.
In 2008 Republican Primary 550k votes were cast in total. in 2012 early voting roughly 100k votes has been cast on the Republican side.
Lincoln county
As of Tuesday afternoon, county officials said that 898 voters out of some 19,000 registered voters in the county had cast their ballots, with about 700 of those in the Republican primary.
Newt will be in Kingsport, Alcoa, & Chattanoga Tomorrow. Tenn is definitely in play for Newt.
Election day in Tennesse will be Clear Upper 50’s to Low 60’s.
Go Newt
Mariner wrote:
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Santorum is collapsing so fast even some of his dedicated supporters no longer see him as a good bet.
A swing to Gingrich...and regrettably Romney...is underway. It’s happening very, very quickly.
I would not be surprised to see Santorum finish 3rd or 4th in TN.
>>
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Bottom line... If we don’t want Mitt Romney to secure the GOP nomination, we need to root for Santorum to win Ohio. Period. Gingrich will not be able to remain viable enough by only winning a handful of southern states. We need to be pulling for the strongest anti-Romney candidate in EVERY state, no matter who it may be.
Agreed. Gingrich and Santorum together will still do well enough in Ohio to deny Romney delegates. I meant Santorum’s difficulties might give Gingrich an opportunity....
Well, you know I’m one of Newt’s most avid supporters, so I really hope you (and PPP) are right.
Actually I'd modify that to every Congressional District or county, depending on how that state party counts it's votes.
What we cannot have is Romney walking into Tampa with 1,144 committed delegates.
Still, he could walk in with 844 committed delegates and the at-large delegates would still giv3e it to him on the first ballot.
Much better scenario is if all 4 walk into Tampa with less than 800 delegates and only a couple above 500.
Otherwise Romney is the nominee.
trappedincanuckistan wrote:
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Agreed. Gingrich and Santorum together will still do well enough in Ohio to deny Romney delegates. I meant Santorum’s difficulties might give Gingrich an opportunity....
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Ohio definitely doesn’t look to be in play for Gingrich at this point. Even though Santorum is my first choice right now, I’m perfectly fine with Gingrich winning the southern states, including Tennessee. I just hope that a late Gingrich surge in the latter state doesn’t split the conservative vote there to the point where Romney would emerge as the de facto winner.
Who hasn't collapsed at the hands of the Romney smear machine?
That Romney only won by three points in Michigan is remarkable. That Santorum still could win Ohio despite the onslaught is as well.
Anyone celebrating a Santorum collapse is celebrating a decisive Romney win on Super Tuesday.
The ONLY chance any Romney alternative has is for Romney to lose in Ohio and suffer a setback on Tuesday.
That hatred of Santorum is Romney's best friend.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html
RCP delegate count:
173 Romney
74 Santorum
37 Paul
33 Gingrich.
Paul just passed Gingrich for fourth, scoring 5 delegates in WA.
Paul’s on an 18:1 delegate run vs Gingrich.
Romney is the ONE benefiting. If he wins Tennessee, the race is finished. But, you'd rather see Santorum lose than any candidate having a chance to beat Romney.
research “binding” or “committed” delegates, understand it, and get back to me.
The problem is that Newt can’t win in places like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all states that need to be won in order to deny Romney the nomination.
The south just isn’t enough. Newt needed to win Florida to have a chance, and the South without Florida, and without the midwest won’t defeat someone with the W + NE + Florida.
The delegate count just doesn’t add up. Unless you believe that Newt can win states outside of the south - what is going to happen is exactly what you figure.
The conservative vote will be split, and Romney will start taking WTA states with 35 percent of the vote.
Hey, I thought RCP was reliable. Are you saying they are not?
Anyways, Paul 37, Newt 33, Santorum 74 now after WA.
PPP will release it’s poll numbers late tonight - usually it’s between 10PM and 11PM EST - for its Tennessee, Georgia & Ohio polls. This poll is pretty fresh; it’s taken from those polled yesterday & today.
Romney needs to lose on Tuesday and only Santorum can beat him in Ohio.
If Romney wins Tuesday in Ohio, the MSM and RINOSM annoint Romney as the GOP nominee and the sheep flock to Mitt.
Romney already wins three of the states Tuesday (Vermont,Massachusetts,Virginia) and has a good chance in Idaho because of the Mormons in the eastern part of that state.
Ohio will be the one the media uses as the narrative for Romney winning the night. Romney must lose there.
I was on the ground in SC, on the phones, and door to door. There were almost 10,000 calls made in SC the last 2 weeks... and the last 2 or 3 days, you could feel the momentum changing on the phones... Earlier, it was maybe 2 Newts out of 10, and by the day before the vote, it was 8 out of 10 for Newt. You could feel the change, and it happened very quickly in the final 72 hours. Newt went out of his way to salute the phone call and grassroots efforts in SC... please... please... there is still time to call for Newt, and get involved for Newt...
From Newt 2012: friday
Field and Phone Leaders, CALLING ALL HANDS ON DECK!!
Our national phone team has successfully called through the original 18,000 volunteer sign-ups. This has resulted in a refined list of volunteer prospects for all 50 states. In 3 weeks our national call team has increased by 300%, or 50 new people per week.
Our increased call capacity will help us now begin to make calls into “Super Tuesday” states or those close by that can assist and or deploy to active states.
... YOU CAN NOW CHOOSE THE STATE THAT YOU WOULD LIKE TO CALL
http://newtsnetwork.com/ (click Make the CAll in upper right hand corner)
NOTE: The list filters itself by time zones. It will not show you California at 10am Eastern Time because that is 7am Pacific Time and too early to call there. Once a state’s call list opens up the state name will be added to the dropdown list for you to call. (And in the reverse, Eastern Time Zones will be removed from the list as the night wears on.)
This new reality will enable us to be highly flexible in how we operate and target prospects for GOTV and or volunteer recruitment.
Please disseminate this information to your call teams and volunteer lists.
Thank you
I am certain he cannot win the GOP nomination and even more so a nationwide office in the general election.
He's demonstrated himself to be an idiot.
Yes, they are, but they chose not to breakdown binding delegates versus non binding delegates.
For example, that night where Santorum “won three states” (cough cough) - there were two non binding caucuses and a non binding primary where Newt was not on the ballot and exit polls showed many Santorum “voters” preferred Newt but voted Santorum to be anti Romney. I don’t think any of the “delegates” from that night are binding. At least, not many are. But RCP is counting them.
WSJ is too BTW.
I don’t hate Santorum. I like Gingrich.
I’m not celebrating Rick’s collapse. Only seeing a Gingrich opportunity.
For the sake of the nation, I hope you’re right.
No Romney.
No Saintorum.
No way!
** President Newt Gingrich-”Our beloved republic deserves nothing less.”
So again, you refuse to acknowledge that Santorum’s actually won 4 states.
Hey, from what I can see - Newt can’t win anything that isn’t in the south.
Ergo, he can’t win the nomination because Romney will beat him in the midwest, in the west and in the northwest. That adds up to enough votes to win the convention outright.
But do go on, show me the path Newt has to the nomination despite getting 0 in WA.
Are you being obtuse on purpose, or are you not very bright? I mean, I’ll let you answer, but it clearly is one of the two.
Santorum did win four states, but not every “state win” is equal. A caucus is not equal to a primary, and a small primary is not equal to a big primary - though they are all “a state.”
Now, if that is too complicated for you, we have nothing more to discuss. And Santorum is actually counting on the fact that it IS INDEED too complicated for folks to understand, because he does equate his 8 vote win in teeny tiny Obama loving Iowa the equivalent of a huge turn out in SC and Florida.
So maybe you didn’t follow this after all, come to think of it. You are who he had in mind when he was pretending to equate those states .
[quote]
but not every “state win” is equal
[/quote]
True - he won a mandate in Missouri. Only Romney and Santorum have won actual mandates against the rest of the field.
So in actuality, if we aren’t looking at pluralities, it’s 1:1 Santorum vs Romney.
An essentially three-way tie would be excellent news. I'd hate to see Santorum win TN easily, much less at all.
Yesterday his supporters were crying foul over his screw ups regarding Ohio delegates.
Santorum doesn't even have a slate of registered delegates in TN; evidently the party will pick him some if he wins any.
A mandate in Missouri? Really? Missouri’s delegates are chosen by caucus in March. What he won was a beauty contest that Newt didn’t even join the ballot for.
Might I just remind you that Ohio has 66 proportional delegates, Georgia has 76 proportional delegates. Newt will win GA with a big enough margin to win MOST of the delegates. Ohio will be split, with Rick losing out on many that he could have gotten.
In other words, GEORGIA IS THE PRIZE ON TUESDAY, NOT OHIO! I am tired of the MSM ignoring us (GA) just because it is Newt and not Mitt that’s winning here. Or is it because we are a Southern state not an old “Rust Belt” Northern state.
Sorry, my Southern pride is being tweaked a bit! :))))))
“that Newt didn’t even join the ballot for.”
Oh really? So you mean that if Newt were to drop out Santorum would be defeating Romney?
Odd that.
Yes, Santorum won a mandate in Missouri. Yes, Newt wasn’t there so we have a pretty good idea what happens in a primary with just Santorum and no Newt.
THIS family is traveling to Tennessee tomorrow to vote for Newt! I can’t see myself voting for Santo ever much less in an election as important as this one.
There is a way for Newt to sweep Super Tuesday.
It's not too late for Newt and Sarah to have that long phone conversation and announce a joint Newt/Sarah team for President/Vice President.
". . And if I am nominated, I have asked Sarah Palin, and she has accepted, to be the Vice Presidential nominee. I ask you America, for the sake of our Sacred Republic, to vote for us on Super Tuesday." . .
I’ve already been through this argument with LeopoldvonRanke about binding and non-binding. Apparently, he (or she) still doesn’t get it or doesn’t want to understand it.
One of my favorite t-shirts from Mythbusters:
“I will reject your reality and substitute it for my own”
I hope that Tennessee goes for Santorum, though a Gingrich win there would be acceptable. The worst thing possible would be for Santorum and Gingrich to split the conservative vote. This has happened in Tennessee in a number of statewide elections lately.
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