Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

"..Newt could win election day...in TN...but...so far back in early voting it may not be enough."
Public Policy Polling (via Twitter) ^ | 3/4/12 | Public Policy Polling

Posted on 03/04/2012 3:28:18 PM PST by BCrago66

Full tweet:

"Think there is some chance Newt could win election day voters in TN...but he was so far back in early voting it may not be enough."

(Excerpt) Read more at twitter.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Tennessee
KEYWORDS: ppp4romney; romneydirtasusual; romneydirtytricks; santorum4romney; santorumfalling
We cannot be certain about what will happen Tuesday, but this PPP poll (to be released in full later tonight) indicates that in Tennessee Newt has the momentum in the final hours before Super-Tuesday.

And even if Newt just takes the #2 position in Tennessee, those delegates plus the Georgia delegates (plus delegates from other states such as Oklahoma) aren't chopped liver. It's sufficient to give Newt momentum to take Alabama and Mississippi the following week.

1 posted on 03/04/2012 3:28:21 PM PST by BCrago66
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: BCrago66

GO NEWT GO!


2 posted on 03/04/2012 3:31:41 PM PST by Parley Baer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BCrago66
Go Newt. Everyone unite for Newt.

Ricky has been the spoiler for a long time.

God please help us turn this around.

3 posted on 03/04/2012 3:32:30 PM PST by Christie at the beach (I like Newt and would love to see political dead bodies on the floor.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Parley Baer

GO NEWT!


4 posted on 03/04/2012 3:32:57 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: BCrago66

Early voting is a travesty. No one can forsee what will happen in a week, month or longer. If someone wants to vote they should show up at the polls on the given day and do so. Military exceptions should be permitted, of course, but everyone else can just stand in line and vote. A vote is a snapshot in time. Early voting blurs that snapshot by counting voters who may not have had complete/current info on the candidates.


5 posted on 03/04/2012 3:36:17 PM PST by FerociousRabbit
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: trappedincanuckistan

Newts the one.


6 posted on 03/04/2012 3:36:20 PM PST by Spunky
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: trappedincanuckistan
Explain to me the purpose/value in early voting?
Especially when so many early voters apparently just vote for the flavor of the week at the time they vote.

It would be a damn shame if Newt wouldn't win TN because of early voting.

7 posted on 03/04/2012 3:39:36 PM PST by sillsfan (Reagan and Sarah are right- WE win, they lose!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: BCrago66
"It's sufficient to give Newt momentum to take Alabama and Mississippi the following week."

I don't know that Social Conservatives will allow that to happen.

8 posted on 03/04/2012 3:39:36 PM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FerociousRabbit

The think the video of Romney bragging about using his connection to get an unprecedented amount of federal dollars for the Olympics is a game-changer, because it makes his hypocrisy so clear ever “low-information voters,” i.e., idiots, can get it. But by the time ABC broadcast it, a lot of Romney votes in TN & elsewhere were already locked in.

But it will still do a lot of good on Super-Tuesday and later primaries. I’m certain that Newt’s Super-PAC is editing it right now, and including in the commercial Romney’s “Washington insider” accusations against other candidates.


9 posted on 03/04/2012 3:44:28 PM PST by BCrago66
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Mariner

Social conservatives sure gave him south Carolina.


10 posted on 03/04/2012 3:45:12 PM PST by ansel12 (Rick Santorum, Catholic, “I was basically pro-choice all my life, until I ran for Congress,” he sa)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: sillsfan

I don’t like early voting. People vote based on information they’ve received up to that point. You might favor candidate x one day, but what if something damning is discovered about candidate x the next day? OR You may not care for candidate y one day, but what if he says or does something the next day you really like?


11 posted on 03/04/2012 3:47:09 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: sillsfan

Latest tweet:

http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/176451747596861441

“We’ll start posting toplines from our OH, TN, and GA polls here around 9:30-10. Which would you like to see first?”

I think people are already tweeting PPP to release Tennessee first.


12 posted on 03/04/2012 3:47:28 PM PST by BCrago66
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: sillsfan

That’s so true. I know people in Florida who voted early for Romney; they are not wanting Newt to win the nomination. I always like voting on the actual day.


13 posted on 03/04/2012 3:50:16 PM PST by Christie at the beach (I like Newt and would love to see political dead bodies on the floor.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: BCrago66

C’mon Newt!
and c’mon ‘bama! Make me proud on the 13th!


14 posted on 03/04/2012 3:50:17 PM PST by sillsfan (Reagan and Sarah are right- WE win, they lose!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: BCrago66
And even if Newt just takes the #2 position in Tennessee, those delegates plus the Georgia delegates (plus delegates from other states such as Oklahoma) aren't chopped liver. It's sufficient to give Newt momentum to take Alabama and Mississippi the following week.

And the man that has taught for what 30 years in a Military College is running the long race.

If Newt does as well as we hope (and combined with Santorum's donation slide) it is not if but when either Newt or Sarah ask Santorum to take a powder.

IMHO in regards to his tactics, Romney and Santorum don't know who they are dealing with.

He has gone to States and putting energy in places I wouldn't think too. What is his master game plan? What is war board strategy literally layed out on a table for the visual. That I'd love to see...

15 posted on 03/04/2012 3:52:16 PM PST by taildragger (( Palin / Mulally 2012 ))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Christie at the beach

Correction: Typo

Romney; they are NOW wanting Newt to win the nomination.


16 posted on 03/04/2012 3:52:47 PM PST by Christie at the beach (I like Newt and would love to see political dead bodies on the floor.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: All; BCrago66
Where are the Santorum supporters who were beating the drum how stupid Michigan early voters were and how smart same-day voters were because they were breaking for Santorum.

If Newt wins among election day voters but loses over all because of early voters, what will their tune be?

Is hypocrisy on the horizon?

17 posted on 03/04/2012 3:52:47 PM PST by newzjunkey (Santorum: 18-point loss, voted for Sotomayor, proposed $550M on top of $900M Amtrak budget...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: trappedincanuckistan

I don’t much like early voting in these critical national elections, although I admit I have voted early before. As others have said, significant changes can occur before election day. Heck, any number of things could even happen to your candidate that would take them out of the election, and then you wasted your vote.


18 posted on 03/04/2012 3:53:35 PM PST by mtrott
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Christie at the beach

Exactly. People voted early in Florida based on Romney’s $20 million in false ads.


19 posted on 03/04/2012 3:57:36 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: trappedincanuckistan; Christie at the beach

I think we could do early voting for a day or two before the actual election (and I think originally it was a very short time span) because that may help some people get to the polls.

But having it weeks ahead, especially in a primary where things can change day to day, is a really bad thing. I also knew older people here who had voted for Romney so early that it was really just Romney and Paul. This is because both of them had spent tons of money on Florida. You only saw Romney and Paul signs here, because Paul also made use of early voting. But then they wanted to vote for Gingrich...and it was too late.

Early voting only insures that the candidate with the most money wins. I’d bet that most early voters are older voters, who are very susceptible to advertising, and if the candidate gets out there and advertises early, they take him as a done deal.


20 posted on 03/04/2012 4:04:17 PM PST by livius
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: taildragger
"That I'd love to see... "

Gingrich has already stated his game plan. He is going to win GA, pick up delegates in TN and OK and "do very well in OH". Pick up AL and MS in a week.

Then hang in there until he can finish strong in TX and CA...where the big delegates are.

He's already been up and down CA twice while Romney and Santorum were focused on MI.

21 posted on 03/04/2012 4:05:52 PM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: BCrago66

Newt needs to push Mittens to third. Then, RP needs to push Mittens to 4th.


22 posted on 03/04/2012 4:11:56 PM PST by achilles2000 ("I'll agree to save the whales as long as we can deport the liberals")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BCrago66

It’s Newt or nobody for me!


23 posted on 03/04/2012 4:12:45 PM PST by lu shissler
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FerociousRabbit

Once done, there’s no way to change your mind! Don’t do it.


24 posted on 03/04/2012 4:12:53 PM PST by lu shissler
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: sillsfan

Some probably vote in more than one state. No early voting would stop that. One would have to physically show up at the polls. Unless, of course, you live in border towns, i.e., Wiscpnsin-Minnesota.


25 posted on 03/04/2012 4:13:21 PM PST by lu shissler
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: sillsfan

Some probably vote in more than one state. No early voting would stop that. One would have to physically show up at the polls. Unless, of course, you live in border towns, i.e., Wiscpnsin-Minnesota.


26 posted on 03/04/2012 4:13:31 PM PST by lu shissler
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: FerociousRabbit
I've always voted early, never regretted it, but this is first election where I'm not. Part of that is logistical but I'd also been watching to see if it felt better to vote strategically or for the one I'd prefer.

I'll be voting for my preference.

27 posted on 03/04/2012 4:17:37 PM PST by newzjunkey (Santorum: 18-point loss, voted for Sotomayor, proposed $550M on top of $900M Amtrak budget...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: BCrago66

Not sure about the rest of the state, but there was low turnout of early voters in Madison County. Maybe a groundswell on Tuesday?


28 posted on 03/04/2012 4:18:24 PM PST by Figment
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BCrago66

God save the Republic... please help Newt win the presidency.

** President Newt Gingrich-”Our beloved republic deserves nothing less.”


29 posted on 03/04/2012 4:19:23 PM PST by Gator113 (** President Newt Gingrich-"Our beloved republic deserves nothing less." ~Just livin' life, my way~)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FerociousRabbit

Yeah, but if you die before election day, your vote still counts.


30 posted on 03/04/2012 4:20:57 PM PST by Figment
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Figment

Hey, Figment! I heard the same thing about low turn out. I live in the northeast part of Madison county.


31 posted on 03/04/2012 4:23:22 PM PST by conservativejoy ("Where there is no vision, the people perish." Proverbs 29:18)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: conservativejoy; Figment

The following is a link to county by county early/absentee voting numbers. It means nothing to me but might to people who live there.

http://www.tn.gov/sos/election/data/turnout/20120306.htm

Totals

Republican - 158,666

Democratic - 41,704

All - 201,278


32 posted on 03/04/2012 4:33:39 PM PST by deport (..............God Bless Texas............)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: Mariner

And don’t forget, in the areas where Newt WINS, turnout increases!


33 posted on 03/04/2012 4:33:44 PM PST by Mangia E Statti Zitto
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: lu shissler

Same here.


34 posted on 03/04/2012 4:40:48 PM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State | Gingrich 2012)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: BCrago66

“We’ll start posting toplines from our OH, TN, and GA polls here around 9:30-10. Which would you like to see first?”

I need new glasses. For a second I thought it said “posting topless” followed by “which would you like to see first.”

I then started wondering who the “we” were and what should be seen first or never seen at all.


35 posted on 03/04/2012 4:45:20 PM PST by FerociousRabbit
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: conservativejoy

Howdy neighbor. I’m in the airport area.The last day of early voting had about1/3 of the total


36 posted on 03/04/2012 5:11:51 PM PST by Figment
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: Figment

I’m thinking of calling in on Mack in the Morning to give a last appeal on the gas prices issue that will effect everybody. We have to use every means at our disposal to get the message out and help people see what’s really at stake.


37 posted on 03/04/2012 5:24:27 PM PST by conservativejoy ("Where there is no vision, the people perish." Proverbs 29:18)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: BCrago66

Are early votes counted and reported early? How on Earth would someone know the early voting results before the election date?


38 posted on 03/04/2012 5:31:14 PM PST by LachlanMinnesota (Which are you? A producer, a looter, or a moocher of wealth?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BCrago66

Yesterday and today I was at a gun show in Southaven Mississippi passing out literature on behalf of Henry Ross, Republican challenger to Congressman Alan (voted for the Debt Ceiling increase and for the Jet Engine the Military said they didn’t want or need) Nunnelee, freshman Congressman in Ms. 01. I was wearing my Newt button and did get a very favorable response to Henry and Newt from Mississippi residents. We get many residents of Tennessee at this show and when I would ask if they voted in Ms. and got a response they were from Tn. I would ask them to vote for Newt and I was very encouraged by the response and by many that apparently were switching back to Newt from Rick now that it is time to vote. They were looking for a social conservative in Santorum and Nunnley, but now realize they can get “both” a social and fiscal conservative in Gingrich and Ross. In two days I had one individual tell me he was a democrat and supported obama, a few RP supporters and No support or kind words for Romney.


39 posted on 03/04/2012 5:32:08 PM PST by duffee (NEWT 2012)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: conservativejoy

Call Bill way and other talk shows too. WNWS has a large audience


40 posted on 03/04/2012 5:33:31 PM PST by Figment
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: LachlanMinnesota

By law no state is supposed to count the Early votes before that election closes.

Its a Percentage calculation. for instance on a certain date Newt was at 15% therefore of the votes that took place that day. 15% should have went to Newt. Extremely bogus calculation based on Polls.


41 posted on 03/04/2012 5:53:33 PM PST by Bailee (Vote Newt the Pitt bull we need. Energy Independence and we bow to NO foreign dictator.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: taildragger; All

I was on the ground in SC, on the phones, and door to door. There were almost 10,000 calls made in SC the last 2 weeks... and the last 2 or 3 days, you could feel the momentum changing on the phones... Earlier, it was maybe 2 Newts out of 10, and by the day before the vote, it was 8 out of 10 for Newt. You could feel the change, and it happened very quickly in the final 72 hours. Newt went out of his way to salute the phone call and grassroots efforts in SC... please... please... there is still time to call for Newt, and get involved for Newt...

From Newt 2012: friday

Field and Phone Leaders, CALLING ALL HANDS ON DECK!!

Our national phone team has successfully called through the original 18,000 volunteer sign-ups. This has resulted in a refined list of volunteer prospects for all 50 states. In 3 weeks our national call team has increased by 300%, or 50 new people per week.

Our increased call capacity will help us now begin to make calls into “Super Tuesday” states or those close by that can assist and or deploy to active states.

... YOU CAN NOW CHOOSE THE STATE THAT YOU WOULD LIKE TO CALL

http://newtsnetwork.com/ (click Make the CAll in upper right hand corner)

NOTE: The list filters itself by time zones. It will not show you California at 10am Eastern Time because that is 7am Pacific Time and too early to call there. Once a state’s call list opens up the state name will be added to the dropdown list for you to call. (And in the reverse, Eastern Time Zones will be removed from the list as the night wears on.)

This new reality will enable us to be highly flexible in how we operate and target prospects for GOTV and or volunteer recruitment.

Please disseminate this information to your call teams and volunteer lists.
Thank you


42 posted on 03/04/2012 7:58:12 PM PST by true believer forever (Save the Irish Setters - Vote Newt!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: true believer forever

Thank you. That’s awesome!


43 posted on 03/04/2012 8:00:14 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 42 | View Replies]

To: livius

One of the advantages of early voting is that it minimizes the impact of releasing negative information (true or untrue) on a candidate in the last day or two when it is impossible to get a rebuttal out. This dirty trick is still employed but it is not as effective as it once was.


44 posted on 03/04/2012 11:23:14 PM PST by etcb
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Figment

I only managed to get in one call during my break. but I told the Mac in the Morning audience to vote Against the Obama/Chu 999 plan for $10.00 gasoline by voting for Newt. I pointed out what a huge issue this is for every individual and household.

I also took an informal poll of workers and those who visited my office today. Of the 52 voters I talked with, All 52 were for Newt!


45 posted on 03/05/2012 2:17:26 PM PST by conservativejoy ("Where there is no vision, the people perish." Proverbs 29:18)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: conservativejoy

Gingrich was the leader in my little place of work in Middle TN. The Knoxville area is a must for Newt. The Nashville area is breaking towards him IMHO. I wish Memphis would just migrate to anywhere else.


46 posted on 03/05/2012 2:23:19 PM PST by eyedigress ((Old storm chaser from the west)/?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 45 | View Replies]

To: eyedigress

I hear you. Memphis is a liberal Democrat cesspool. That being said, the rest of West TN. is very conservative. It’s good to hear what is going on in the rest of the state without worrying that it is skewed by the media.

Gingrich is covering the middle and eastern part of the state pretty well.

I can’t wait to go vote for Newt tomorrow!


47 posted on 03/05/2012 2:48:53 PM PST by conservativejoy ("Where there is no vision, the people perish." Proverbs 29:18)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 46 | View Replies]

To: conservativejoy

They are going to put up a few pages of delegates. Keep in mind Perry endorsed Gingrich.


48 posted on 03/05/2012 3:00:55 PM PST by eyedigress ((Old storm chaser from the west)/?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 47 | View Replies]

To: eyedigress

Will do. Thanks for the reminder.

I have been so excited all day. Can’t wait to vote for Newt!


49 posted on 03/05/2012 3:22:48 PM PST by conservativejoy ("Where there is no vision, the people perish." Proverbs 29:18)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 48 | View Replies]

To: conservativejoy

I’ll give it a try tomorrow on wnws. It’s difficult for me to get a chance to listen , let alone call in. It’s womth the extra effort though. Most of the people I work with are for Newt also. We have a couple of Santorums and a Paulista too(we don’t trust him with sharp objects)


50 posted on 03/05/2012 3:48:41 PM PST by Figment
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 45 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson