Skip to comments.SHIPPING CEO: Iran Could Send Oil To $440/Barrel
Posted on 03/05/2012 6:10:14 AM PST by blam
SHIPPING CEO: Iran Could Send Oil To $440/Barrel
March 5, 2012
The scariest Iran scenario yet comes from Bob Bandos, CEO of marine logistics and services company GAC North America.
Bandos tells Pierre Bertrand of the International Business Times:
[T]ankers can haul 1.8 million barrels of oil a day through the strait. If that supply is choked off, the effect would be similar to the fuel shortages of the 1970s - but more extreme, Bandos said.
"That would be nothing compared to this," Bandos said, who added the shortage would be global.
If the 1973 embargo experience repeats itself, the price of a barrel of oil could soar to $440 a barrel.
This scenario is more bearish than we've heard from most banks. Societe Generale, for instance, said oil could rise to $200 were the Strait closed. Of course the $440 figure was picked up by the pro-Iranian Tehran Times (via @DougKass).
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
I agree. I, too, live in a rural area, and have noticed the same trend. The gas here’s only $3.50 or so, but it’s still a big drain. Likewise, I don’t see people going “into town” as much anymore (my household included), and that’s not a good sign.
There is an Arabian Gulf Pipeline project underway to
bypass the Hormuz Strait bottleneck.
The willow tree produces salicylic acid in the bark which is a raw and unrefined equivalent to aspirin.
I think we have sufficiently hijacked the thread.
I can't tell if you are a proponent of nationalized oil. It's a bad idea.
Here is a few things you are missing in the grand scheme about free market (which is arguable about oil).
The oil company is going to get the current going market rate from most depending on the futures price set by investors (60% anyway). Otherwise, contracts are written to agreed upon rates. The oil companies then have their established sales rate. Their next goal is to economize the cost of getting the product from the earth to the customer. Pumping and shipping for refinement is a large cost. There is more profit to be made from a company pumping in the gulf and shipping to Houston than to China or Russia. The second part of the equation that affects the price we pay at the pump is the futures market. That is a highly emotional driven component. Speculators gamble on supply and demand to place their bets. If America were to some day announce, "All regulations on oil exploration, extraction, refinement, shipping and oversight are hereby rescinded. And there are no longer any permits required and civil lawsuits against oil companies are illegal." speculators would drop dead of angina first. Then you would see the price of oil drop dramatically. Why? The speculation is that America could significantly unleash a new chunk of supply into the world market. More supply feeds demand and increases competition. It's a complicated formula. But Americans would certainly feel the positive impact of American companies expanding extraction and refinement in the US.
And I am of the opinion Israel will not either. They have no carriers. Their flight path takes them over areas WE control...OR Arab's Control...and it's a lot longer trip than it was in 1981. They would need our help...and we will not give it to them. We have put up every roadblock we can to hinder their planning.
Look at the flight path and think of the logistics. It could only be done with a carrier (which they don't have)...or our help (which we won't give).
I HOPE I am wrong...but I think they try to take down the Iranians with continued Mossad tactics.
The current action in Syria (ahem) will be complete by the middle of April.
It's actually a way to bump your own thread without it looking like that's what you're doing.
I think Iran is smart enough to know that if they actually mess with the worlds oil, the world will stop playing games. To actually cut off the straight would be the equivalent of standing on a railroad track to stop an approaching train. i.e. Iran would be committing suicide.
I don’t expect anything to happen.
—The world economy dies at about 200 a barrell, if not sooner. —
And long before that, the wold would strike out, with lethal force, against anyone acting to bring it there.
Talk would be replaced by action. Severe and swift, but not before certain people did not make a financial killing speculating in the meantime.
—everyone will become a doomsday prepper, and withdraw completely from spending, and start thinking about survival. The economy will just die.—
About two years ago I mentioned to my wife that if everyone spent their money the way we do, the economy would die in a week.
See my answer in post #40. -tom
I’m tired of hearing about how OPEC will simply cut production to increase the price of oil if the US increases their oil out put.
Well, yes, OPEC would do that, but only in the short term. It wouldn’t work as a long term strategy. What OPEC would do is simply sell their supplies to China and India.
—...and about the time you did.—
That was when I started articulating it. We’ve been doing it since 2006. When in Seattle, we got almost all of our non-food items at garage and estate sales. We started taking our adult daughters and now they are hooked. Estatesales.net is big for them now.
—...a very pessimistic view of our future, because of Obama’s destructive policies and other things that are obvious to anyone paying attention.-—
That last part has been my line for years. And I used the exact words “anyone paying attention”. That said, I think Obama has only exacerbated it. I saw this as the titanic slowly sinking before he was elected. He just made it worse.
Anyway, see this article...it's catching on:
I bought a vintage JVC JR-S600 receiver at a garage sale for $5. eBay value in the ~$300 range. I bought a stack of vintage solid state gear at one estate sale for $20 and sold half of the components at a “giveaway” price of $220.
We even got a pair of solid copper plates for $8that had a melt value of around $30. If you’re careful, you can live like it’s 1970, pricewise. I even said as much after hitting a few estate sales. It’s STUPID just how much money you can save on stuff you actually need. Pennies on the dollar stupid.
For extra credit ... “and it’s on the shore of the pond.”