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Final polls show Gingrich surging in Tennessee
Tri Cities ^ | March 5, 2012 | Staff

Posted on 03/05/2012 8:11:41 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife

NASHVILLE, Tenn. --

Newt Gingrich has closed the gap in Tennessee and is poised to overtake those presumed to be the victors in the delegate rich state just days ago.

Real Clear Politics' tracking of the polling done across the weekend shows the We Ask America numbers putting the state in a statistical dead heat with Romney at 30%, Gingrich at 29% and Santorum at 29%. The margin of error is 3%. Likewise, PPP polling has Santorum at 34%, Romney at 29% and Gingrich at 27%

The significance is these polls were taken on March 3rd and 4th. Earlier polling, widely reported across the nation, from Vanderbilt University and Middle Tennessee State University just days earlier showed a different picture. MTSU's polling, released February 29 showed Santorum at 40%, Romney at 29% and Gingrich at 13%. Vanderbilt's data from polling done February 16-22 showed Santorum at 33%, Romney at 17% and Gingrich at 13%. Clearly, the largest surge is for Speaker Gingrich.

Andrew Ogles, Tennessee Victory Chair for Gingrich 2012 noted, "I was excited to see the results but not surprised. These numbers show what we've always known; support for Newt is deep and strong in Tennessee. When other campaigns dropped everything to rush surrogates and candidates to Tennessee at the last minute, I knew they were learning the same thing."

Reached by phone, Rep. Tony Shipley (R-Kingsport), Chair of the Newt 2012 campaign in Tennessee and traveling today with Gingrich in East Tennessee, responded, "This is not a real surprise to anyone who has been watching the campaigns here in Tennessee. Newt has strong support among Conservatives, Republicans and voters who realize the nation is headed in the wrong direction. Newt's concern for all Americans is seen in his attention to issues like gas prices and other every day concerns. Tennesseans know Newt supports them and they support him back."


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Tennessee
KEYWORDS: asantorumwin; bigsweepforrick; dnc4romney; gingrich2012; gopprimary; liberals4newt; moderates4newt; newt4romney; newtsplittingvote; obama4romney; patriotgingrich; rinosantorum; rnme4romney; santorum4romney; santorumfalling; santorumtoast; supertuesday; tn; tn2012
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1 posted on 03/05/2012 8:11:47 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

2 + 2 = 4

NEWT = $2.50 a gallon GAS


2 posted on 03/05/2012 8:13:28 AM PST by A. Morgan (Ayn Rand: "You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality.")
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Prayin’ for ya Newt ..... I’d vote for you tomorrow, too .... but I’m in VA.


3 posted on 03/05/2012 8:14:29 AM PST by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: MissMagnolia

Are you voting for Romney or Paul or not at all?


4 posted on 03/05/2012 8:15:28 AM PST by cotton1706
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Doubt that Newt wins more than his home state of Georgia tomorrow. He’ll very likely go one for ten. Or two for 23 overall when you count SC.

As for Tennessee...

Poll Date Sample Santorum Romney Gingrich Paul Spread

RCP Average 3/3 - 3/4 — 32.3 29.7 24.7 9.3 Santorum +2.6

Newt is ONLY helping Willard have a better Super Tuesday than any Massachusetts liberal deserves.

Bottom line:

We must unite the two conservatives, Rick & Newt to defeat the two liberals, Willard & Barack.


5 posted on 03/05/2012 8:15:51 AM PST by CainConservative (Santorum/Huck 2012 w/ Newt, Cain, Palin, Bach, Parker, Watts, Duncan, & Petraeus in the Cabinet)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

GO NEWT! GO!


6 posted on 03/05/2012 8:15:51 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Woot! Go Newt! I can’t wait to vote for him tomorrow in Georgia and to attend his victory party tomorrow night!!


7 posted on 03/05/2012 8:16:35 AM PST by PeachyKeen
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To: MissMagnolia

VA is a ST state. Why not vote?? Sheesh..


8 posted on 03/05/2012 8:17:37 AM PST by goseminoles
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To: cotton1706

Voting Paul. My folks are staying home, but I’m working on them - they’re elderly so ‘going rogue’ (or in this case ‘going Ron’) is out of their comfort zone. None of us like Romney.


9 posted on 03/05/2012 8:18:56 AM PST by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

CW, if these latest polls are accurate— we’ll have to start questioning Rasmaussen- who had Newt at 18% yesterday.


10 posted on 03/05/2012 8:20:07 AM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: goseminoles

Newt is not on the ballot & you can’t write him in. I didn’t say I wasn’t going to vote, just that I couldn’t for Newt. Tomorrow, Ron Paul is getting the vote of most folks I know :-)


11 posted on 03/05/2012 8:20:40 AM PST by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: A. Morgan

Luckily Santorum will win in TN tomorrow. He is overwhelmingly winning in the early voting. Go Santorum! Newt might get a win in Georgia tomorrow. Enjoy that Newt folks. 1 out of 10 is not bad according to some of you. Any class I attended getting a 10 percent equals an F. I guess in this time of easiness getting 10 percent equals an A. Strange times.


12 posted on 03/05/2012 8:20:54 AM PST by napscoordinator (A moral principled Christian with character is the frontrunner! Congrats Santorum!)
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To: All; Cincinatus' Wife
Even Rasmussen showed Santorum dropping 6-points in its Saturday poll vs. a week ago Saturday when he was at 40% in TN.

I expect the Santorum sympathizers may get this story yanked too as the actual poll results thread was taken down with no stated reason.

13 posted on 03/05/2012 8:21:03 AM PST by newzjunkey (Santorum: 18-point loss, voted for Sotomayor, proposed $550M on top of $900M Amtrak budget...)
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To: MissMagnolia

Paul? Oh boy....


14 posted on 03/05/2012 8:21:22 AM PST by goseminoles
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To: CainConservative
The “Chicken” (Santorum) has not come out of his egg yet.

But if he does, the press and the MSM will make an omelet out of him.

Newt, on the other hand, will hand them their little pea brains, in a salad. Therefore, there is NO Santorum option for us. It is either Newt, or none. I would rather have Palin or West for VP.

15 posted on 03/05/2012 8:21:40 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: MissMagnolia

Well that’s good. I’d love to see Paul win Virginia. Really sick it to Romney after he and his handmaidens stole Maine from Paul and a delegate from Santorum in MI.


16 posted on 03/05/2012 8:21:55 AM PST by cotton1706
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To: cotton1706

The majority of Tennesseans and Missippians I talked to this weekend at a gun show in Southaven, Ms. were for Newt. In 2 days I didn’t talk to anyone who was pro Romney or made a positive statement about him.


17 posted on 03/05/2012 8:23:28 AM PST by duffee (NEWT 2012)
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To: napscoordinator

2 + 2 = 4 ; NEWT = $2.50 a gallon GAS ; 2 + 2 = 4


18 posted on 03/05/2012 8:23:53 AM PST by A. Morgan (Ayn Rand: "You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality.")
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To: goseminoles
Paul? Oh boy....

Oh yes!!! Rebellion is brewing in the Old Dominion.

19 posted on 03/05/2012 8:23:56 AM PST by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: CainConservative
Newt may not win the state outright but the polling data indicates he's rising at the moment. None the less, Newt will win some delegates in TN and some of the other states most likley. Example here is the delegate allocation process for TN.

Tennessee


Tuesday 6 March 2012: 55 of Tennessee's 58 delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders in today's Tennessee Presidential Primary.

27 district delegates, 3 from each of the 9 congressional districts, are to be allocated to the presidential contenders based on the primary results in each congressional district. [ByLaws of the Tennessee Republican Party. Article IX. Rule C. Section 1. and Section 4A.]

  • If a candidate receives more than 2/3 of the vote in a congressional district, that candidate receives all 3 delegates.
  • Otherwise, if only 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, that candidate receives all 3 delegates.
  • Otherwise, if 2 or more candidates receive more than 20% of the vote, the highest vote getter receives 2 delegates and the next highest vote getter receives 1 delegate.
  • Otherwise, the top 3 vote getters each receive 1 delegate.
  • The district delegates are directly elected and appear on the primary ballot.

The 28 At-Large delegates are bound "winner-take-most" to presidential contenders based on the primary results statewide. [Article IX. Rule C. Section 1. and Section 4B.]

  • If a candidate receives more than 2/3 of the vote statewide, that candidate receives all 28 delegates.
  • Otherwise, if only 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, that candidate receives all 28 delegates.
  • Otherwise, if 2 or more candidates receive more than 20% of the vote, the delegates are distributed proportionally to those candidates receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote. (Here, the "total qualified vote" is the total number of votes cast to those candidates receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote.)
  • Otherwise, delegates are distributed proportionally. (The "total qualified vote" = total statewide vote.)
  • One half of the at-large delegates are directly elected and appear on the primary ballot.

Proportional distribution and rounding: Beginning with the candidate who received the most votes, multiply [the percentage of votes received] by [28 National Convention Delegates] and divide by [total qualified vote]. Round any remainder up to the next whole number. Repeat for the next highest vote getter until all 28 delegates are allocated.

The 28 At-Large delegates include the 10 "at-large" and 18 bonus delegates apportioned to Tennessee. They do not include the 3 RNC delegates. These delegates are bound to Presidential candidates based on the results of the primary. Half are elected in the primary and half are appointed by the Executive Committee with the consent of the respective Presidential campaigns. When determining "half" divide the total number of At-Large delegates by 2. If there are fractional delegates, round up the number of delegates appointed by the Executive Committee and round down the number of delegates determined by the Primary. [Article IX. Rule C. Section 2.]

  • Remaining Delegates: 58 total - 27 district - 3 party leader delegates = 28.
  • Take half: 28 ÷ 2 = 14.
  • No rounding is necessary: 14 are elected in the Primary and 14 are appointed by the Executive Committee.

20 posted on 03/05/2012 8:24:22 AM PST by deport (..............God Bless Texas............)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Oddly enough, the last local state poll still shows Santorum near 40%. We’ll see tomorrow which is correct.


21 posted on 03/05/2012 8:24:43 AM PST by Ingtar
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

GO NEWTON LEROY!


22 posted on 03/05/2012 8:24:46 AM PST by matthew fuller (If 9/11 happens again, who do we NEED as President?)
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To: cotton1706

I doubt seriously he wins it, but he might get enough votes to keep Romney from ‘winner take all’ on the delegates. It would be a real stick in the eye for Romney & the ‘good old boy GOP’ political machine here in VA.


23 posted on 03/05/2012 8:26:21 AM PST by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: goseminoles; MissMagnolia
Paul? Oh boy....

It's better than voting for Mitt "Progressive Liberal" Romney.
24 posted on 03/05/2012 8:27:40 AM PST by SoConPubbie
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To: newzjunkey
I expect the Santorum sympathizers may get this story yanked too as the actual poll results thread was taken down with no stated reason.

The poster of the thread you are referencing asked the mods to pull it as another poster beat him to the punch. Some folks on FR really need to lay off the conspiracy sauce.

Volunteer Surge? (Another Poll Says Gingrich Tied For Lead In Tennessee)

25 posted on 03/05/2012 8:27:55 AM PST by Admin Moderator
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To: napscoordinator
I won't count on it but, hopefully, Santorum loses Tennessee tomorrow.

As it is, any candidate with 20% or more will get delegates if none gets two-thirds of the vote. Since he couldn't be bothered to provided a slate of delegates in TN, the party will pick some for Santorum. You know how loyal they'll be. /s

26 posted on 03/05/2012 8:28:12 AM PST by newzjunkey (Santorum: 18-point loss, voted for Sotomayor, proposed $550M on top of $900M Amtrak budget...)
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To: VinL; All

March 5, 2012 - AJC: Your morning jolt: New poll has Newt Gingrich near 50 percent

“Following on the heels of a weekend AJC poll, Public Policy Polling of North Carolina is out with yet another survey that shows GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich creeping toward the 50 percent mark in Georgia.

The PPP bottom line:

– Gingrich, 47 percent;

– Mitt Romney, 24 percent;

– Rick Santorum, 19 percent;

– Ron Paul, 8 percent;

The 50 percent mark is a significant one. As far as 34 statewide delegates go, distribution would still be proportional. But even if Gingrich finishes in the mid-40 percentile on Tuesday, that means he’d probably clear 50 percent in some congressional districts. And that’s where the winner-takes-all rule, with 42 delegates at stake, does apply.”.....

http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2012/03/05/your-morning-jolt-new-poll-has-newt-gingrich-near-50-percent/


27 posted on 03/05/2012 8:30:05 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP; CainConservative

It’s sad to see so many Santorum supporters result to the “if you don’t vote for Rick you’re for Romney” and Newt supporters “hate” Rick stuff. If Rick is better hammer the issues. Don’t call into question the character and motives of Newt supporters. That won’t win anyone over.


28 posted on 03/05/2012 8:30:22 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Admin Moderator

The reason could’ve been stated and a link provided to the other thread as is the normal procedure.


29 posted on 03/05/2012 8:30:28 AM PST by newzjunkey (Santorum: 18-point loss, voted for Sotomayor, proposed $550M on top of $900M Amtrak budget...)
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To: CainConservative

“defeat the two liberals, Willard & Barack.”

Defeat the two liberals and the fruitcake, Willard barack & Paul.

To win we need a “Fiscal Conservative” as well as a “Social Conservative,” We need a team CAPTAIN not a team player. We need NEWT.


30 posted on 03/05/2012 8:30:49 AM PST by duffee (NEWT 2012)
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To: A. Morgan

NEWT = $2.50 a gallon

2.50 a gallon does not impress me. Gas was 1.86 when Obama was elected. Why does gas have to be so expensive in a Newt Administration. I will go with Santorum thank you.


31 posted on 03/05/2012 8:31:11 AM PST by napscoordinator (A moral principled Christian with character is the frontrunner! Congrats Santorum!)
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To: napscoordinator

Gingrich is running a southern strategy which has zero chance of winning enough delegates to take the nomination. However is big money backer expects Romney to win the nomination anyway.


32 posted on 03/05/2012 8:31:51 AM PST by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: trappedincanuckistan

resort instead of result. geesh.


33 posted on 03/05/2012 8:32:16 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: newzjunkey
I won't count on it but, hopefully, Santorum loses Tennessee tomorrow.

Another Romney lover. You guys are getting nauseating.

34 posted on 03/05/2012 8:32:44 AM PST by napscoordinator (A moral principled Christian with character is the frontrunner! Congrats Santorum!)
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To: lonevoice

The numbers make my heart sing! Newt all the way to the White House in 2012!


35 posted on 03/05/2012 8:35:10 AM PST by Pride in the USA
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Newt's the only candidate who could get traction illustrating the duplicitiousness of media.

How one person can use a word and not apologize while another has to either lose business or apologize?

Newt can articulate why this is bad for America, that it needs to be pointed out by elected leaders. That we have an unelected branch of power, too many media outlets owned by too few parties.

I think he can get traction on this, and distinguish himself from Romney / Santorum in this area.

36 posted on 03/05/2012 8:35:18 AM PST by cicero2k
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To: cicero2k

The third time is the charm!

The MSM and his opponents are doing all they can to suppress Newt’s formidable ability to get out his message and gain traction.

He’s a fighter and he’s smart.

This is the spirit and the ability we need against Obama (and the GOP-e on the Hill).


37 posted on 03/05/2012 8:42:02 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: napscoordinator

NEWT = $2.50 a gallon

2.50 a gallon does not impress me. Gas was 1.86 when Obama was elected. Why does gas have to be so expensive in a Newt Administration. I will go with Santorum thank you.

**

Well, will $10 per gallon gas impress you? Because that’s what we’re in for if we run Santorum and Obama wins.

But in that scenario, as the world falls down around us, you will be happy that you held to your “principles” I guess.


38 posted on 03/05/2012 8:43:11 AM PST by LibsRJerks
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I’ll just be glad when its over so the robocalls stop.


39 posted on 03/05/2012 8:43:55 AM PST by jdub (A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government.)
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To: SoConPubbie; MissMagnolia

You guys are right. My bad. I didn’t know Newt wasn’t on the ballot.


40 posted on 03/05/2012 8:46:08 AM PST by goseminoles
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To: napscoordinator
It's going to be fun watching your posts as Santorum continues his collapse. He has already seen his one and final zenith.

He's an object of derision in the GOP now.

41 posted on 03/05/2012 8:47:11 AM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: duffee

Not a friend of the Governor and/or Senator Alexander, huh?


42 posted on 03/05/2012 8:49:06 AM PST by jennings2004 (57 states? Kansas or Texas? American geography is so complicated....:)))
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To: Mariner

A vote for Newt in Tennessee is a vote against Romney. Newt has committed delegates. A vote for Rick is a vote for Romney since Rick doesn’t have committed delegates. The Santorum supporters are on every thread calling Newt supporters Romney supporters. Desperation anyone?


43 posted on 03/05/2012 8:51:06 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: MissMagnolia

Definitely tell them that a loss for Romney in a state like Virginia to as insignificant a character as Paul would make his donors, the party and a lot of voters doubt the inevitability of his candidacy. And the only thing anybody (except Mormons) believe he has going for him is electability. The more elections he loses, the more people are going to abandon him and go to other candidates.


44 posted on 03/05/2012 8:55:16 AM PST by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: Ingtar
That poll was conducted Feb 25th, a week ago this past Saturday. 40% is where Santorum was, Rasmussen and now others show him bleeding support.

It's likely the early voters, of which one story claims were fewer than in the past, broke for Santorum by wider margins than those who will vote on election day.

It will be interesting to see whether Santorum supporters here who attacked early Michigan voters for not waiting until election day because they put Romney over the top will feel the same way about when ballots were cast in Tennessee if Santorum loses among election day voters.

45 posted on 03/05/2012 8:55:16 AM PST by newzjunkey (Santorum: 18-point loss, voted for Sotomayor, proposed $550M on top of $900M Amtrak budget...)
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To: trappedincanuckistan
"Don’t call into question the character and motives of Newt supporters."

That is the standard fare of the Snatorum supporter. If you don't support Santorum you're a godless baby-killing communist that supports Romney.

Didn't anyone tell you yet?

46 posted on 03/05/2012 9:00:25 AM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: MissMagnolia

If you are in VA, you need to vote for Ron Paul as a protest vote against Romney.


47 posted on 03/05/2012 9:04:39 AM PST by Thunder90 (Fighting for truth and the American way... http://citizensfortruthandtheamericanway.blogspot.com/)
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To: napscoordinator

Is there a part of the Bible I missed that teaches people that it’s moral to be a snide SOB?


48 posted on 03/05/2012 9:05:34 AM PST by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: Mariner

They have to realize they’re not winning anyone over with personally attacking Newt supporters. Don’t they?


49 posted on 03/05/2012 9:06:35 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: deport
One half of the at-large delegates are directly elected and appear on the primary ballot.

So how do you know which ones you should vote for? They do the same thing in Pennsylvania but for ALL of our delegates.

50 posted on 03/05/2012 9:09:40 AM PST by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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