Skip to comments.Final polls show Gingrich surging in Tennessee
Posted on 03/05/2012 8:11:41 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
NASHVILLE, Tenn. --
Newt Gingrich has closed the gap in Tennessee and is poised to overtake those presumed to be the victors in the delegate rich state just days ago.
Real Clear Politics' tracking of the polling done across the weekend shows the We Ask America numbers putting the state in a statistical dead heat with Romney at 30%, Gingrich at 29% and Santorum at 29%. The margin of error is 3%. Likewise, PPP polling has Santorum at 34%, Romney at 29% and Gingrich at 27%
The significance is these polls were taken on March 3rd and 4th. Earlier polling, widely reported across the nation, from Vanderbilt University and Middle Tennessee State University just days earlier showed a different picture. MTSU's polling, released February 29 showed Santorum at 40%, Romney at 29% and Gingrich at 13%. Vanderbilt's data from polling done February 16-22 showed Santorum at 33%, Romney at 17% and Gingrich at 13%. Clearly, the largest surge is for Speaker Gingrich.
Andrew Ogles, Tennessee Victory Chair for Gingrich 2012 noted, "I was excited to see the results but not surprised. These numbers show what we've always known; support for Newt is deep and strong in Tennessee. When other campaigns dropped everything to rush surrogates and candidates to Tennessee at the last minute, I knew they were learning the same thing."
Reached by phone, Rep. Tony Shipley (R-Kingsport), Chair of the Newt 2012 campaign in Tennessee and traveling today with Gingrich in East Tennessee, responded, "This is not a real surprise to anyone who has been watching the campaigns here in Tennessee. Newt has strong support among Conservatives, Republicans and voters who realize the nation is headed in the wrong direction. Newt's concern for all Americans is seen in his attention to issues like gas prices and other every day concerns. Tennesseans know Newt supports them and they support him back."
A Social Conservative is not necessary to win the general election. However a Social Conservative MAY be necessary to win the nomination. It's apparent there's a very large proportion of SoCons have picked Santorum and they are going to ride that horse until it drops.
They will not vote for Gingrich or any other candidate. For them, Santorum or nothing.
Actually many of us are simply OPPOSED to Santorum as the nominee. Philosophically opposed.
Just as many SoCons are philosophically opposed to Gingrich. They intend to ensure that no man as sleazy as Gingrich showed himself to be (whether past or current) ever wins the GOP nomination.
I’m a resident of Mississippi, formerly a resident of Tennessee, I have voted for Lamar Alexander for Governor, had I remained I would have voted for both Alexander and Haslan at least in the general election, they have both made some decisions I haven’t agreed with and their Romney endorsements were certainly one. I make my own decisions as to who to vote for and support. There are many politicians here in Mississippi who have endorsed Romney, that neither means I will follow their lead or hold there endorsement against them. I’ve found from long experience that because someone has run for an office and got elected with or without my support doesen’t automatically make them have better judgement or be smarter or more knowledgeable than me in these matters, sometimes though it does tell me I may have made a mistake in the primary election.
Are you sure you're old enough to vote? Debating with you is like arguing with a pre-schooler. What's next, are you going to accuse Newt supporters of having cooties?
They, like MANY Gingrich supporters are driven by emotion rather than reason. We all wrap our emotions in the cloak of reason and can rationalize just about any position politically.
Don't be too hard on them, one day it might be our turn again:)
Newt is surging at the right moment. Can’t wait to go vote for Newt tomorrow.
Rick Santorum needs to go on the offense by releasing a statement:
Newt and his supporters are “stealth Romney supporters that hate America (especially the children!)”.
That should bolster his struggling campaign.
So how do you know which ones you should vote for?
I have no idea how they are identified. Maybe a Volunteer can give us some insight.
My wife and I are pulling the lever for Newt tomorrow.
Eh. I'm hard pressed to remember any Santorum posting anything positive about him at all. All his support seems based on attacks on other candidates. It's one thing to have less negatives than the other candidates, but you've got to have some positives too. Otherwise you're just dead air. Maybe Santorum has some, but you certainly don't hear it from his supporters on this forum, other than that he has a "moral family life." Which is a good thing but in golf, a moral family life doesn't make you as good a golf player as Tiger Woods. In computers, it doesn't make you as successful as Steve Jobs. And there's no evidence that it makes you a good president. Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama had a good moral family life too after all.
Come on Rocky Top!
“Don’t be too hard on them, one day it might be our turn again:)”
It may be, but I can guarantee if that day comes I’ll be too busy advocating for my candidate to question their motives or character.
I know that on the Ron Paul forums they were talking about trying to get their people on the delegate ballot in Pennsylvania. So I really want to make sure I vote for the right ones when Pennsylvania comes up. I might go on the Ron Paul forums, ask them which ones I should vote for, and then vote for the other ones.
It’s likely the early voters, of which one story claims were fewer than in the past,.......
TN Elections Division shows something over 201,000 total votes with 158,000 early/absentee votes this cycle for the GOP primary. In the 2008 primary it was around 330,000 votes total but not shown by party.
hoping for a large “undervote” which frees our delagates at the convention to vote for whomever they wish. Vote for none of the above!
“A Social Conservative is not necessary to win the general election. However a Social Conservative MAY be necessary to win the nomination. It’s apparent there’s a very large proportion of SoCons have picked Santorum and they are going to ride that horse until it drops.
They will not vote for Gingrich or any other candidate. For them, Santorum or nothing.”
What they don’t realize is that Newt’s voting record on the “Social Connservative” issue’s is at LEAST as good as Santorum’s, and that’s as close to Newt as Santorum gets.
What is wrong with saying that gas was 1.86 dollars a gallon and Newt wants to bring it down to 2.50 a gallon. I would rather it go lower. Newt gave it a try and failed.
Well, will $10 per gallon gas impress you?
Won’t impress me but if we have to live with 10 dollars a gallon and guarantee that Santorum will work hard to get rid of abortion. I will take it. My top issue is not gas prices. In fact, gas prices are not even in the top 10. Morals, ethics, principles, Family values, national debt, abortion, gay marriage are all way more important to me than gas prices. Go Santorum!
If Newt leaves, I won't even bother voting in the primary.
13% is a surge?
On what planet?
Rasmussen Poll: Santorum Leads Romney 34%-30% in Tennessee
RCP and PPP:
-In Tennessee Santorum’s saving grace may end up being early voters.
25% of the electorate has already voted and with those folks he’s at 39% to 32% for Romney and
23% for Gingrich.
Also working to Santorum’s considerable advantage in Tennessee is that we find an electorate that is 66% Evangelicals, and they support Santorum 39-27
over Gingrich with Romney at 25%.
The late momentum is on Romney’s side. He’s up
38-34 on Santorum with those who’ve decided in the last few days or the last week.
(No mention of Newt)
Keep it real, people!
Starting to think those handfull on every site are Mittbots on a masquerade as pro Santorum.
For instance Newt 2.50 gas absolutely NOT possible there was no way he could pull it off. But Today Woah 2.50 is not good enough.
If you dont want to Waste your Vote in TN vote Newt.
VOTE Newt Anything else is Un-American
“Morals, ethics, principles, Family values” for Santorum
Your kidding right Santroum has just as bad of baggage as Newt to being a Social Conservative. In my books its far worse. Newt has stated he has fallen short in the eyes of God. We all have Except where is Santorum. Santorum do as I say not as I have done.
Yea you heard that right.
Quit Spamming Santorum Holier than thou BS and go look it up.
Your votes for Paul are wasted. You would do better to vote Santorum. At least he has a good chance of winning over Mittens.
It doesn’t matter what you or I say. Gingrich will win one state tomorrow and Snatorum will win at least 3 if not more. That is the result that I care about.
Santorum is not on the primary ballot in VA tomorrow and we cannot write anybody in. We have TWO choices - Romney or Paul. The protest vote is for Paul.
Only Paul and Mittare on the VA ballot.there are a few posters here who are not aware of the Va shenanigans.
mittare = mittens
Then quite Trashing Newt is all I ask. Newt Supports have pulled our punches on Santorum while a few of you go on an on about Newt failures.
Promote Santorum and we will promote Newt.
If you think Santorum wins 3 tomorrow good. I would like for Santorum & Newt to come in 1st and 2nd in all four. GA, TN, OK, OH.
GO VOTE SANTORUM ..... He has morals, family values ....
LOL. It would be funny if it wasn't so pathetic. Who has the fiddle?
Santorum contributed far more to the debt than either Newt, Romney or Paul. Newt actually balanced budgets as Speaker. Gas prices contribute to the debt by making everything we buy more expensive, raising the government's costs and pushing more people onto welfare. Newt is just as pro-life as Santorum, passing partial-birth abortion bans even though Clinton vetoed them. Newt has developed a bold plan to reign in the activist judges who keep attacking religious values in this country. Santorum has come up with nothing that addresses the issue or would change the status quo at all. And both signed pledges to sign a constitutional amendment defining marriage as male-female. Newt is a strong, rock-solid social conservative. Whatever happened between him and his wife decades ago is laughably insignificant and irrelevant to the current crises our nation faces. Newt raised two wonderful daughters who became great citizens and who wholeheartedly support him in his campaign. Even Reagan couldn't pull that off with his kids.
To me the ultimate family value is to put a roof over your family’s head, and food in their bellies.
You think ethics and morality are lacking now? Wait until the economy tanks. Then you’ll see real immorality.
Newt actually balanced budgets as Speaker.
Yes they did that by taking money from the Social Security trust fund. I don’t think that is particularly a great thing.
I know you are, but what am I? How old are you?
Interesting...I am a native of Mississippi and now a resident of Tennessee. Governor and now Senator Alexander has been a big disappointment for me in the manner which he and Senator Corker have helped Dear Leader further his despicable agenda. Governor Haslam’s endorsement of Governor Romney was a surprise to me....just cannot stand that man...have a great evening!
I early voted in Tennessee. The ballot is one more confusing mess. I just voted for every Gingrich delegate I could find, then on toward the last there was a place to vote for Gingrich directly. Later, on this site, I saw how they parceled out the delegates and hopefully they have a computer handy...what a total mess.
Yep sounds confusing. Did they have delegates for all the other candidates listed also or did some not have named delegates? It would be easier to just pull one lever, make a mark for the candidate let that be for all his delegates.
I believe there were delegates named for Governor Romney, but I wasn’t really searching for those. I don’t think there were any for Senator Santorum. Senator Santorum’s name was on the last page and he could be voted for, but it looked like that was the only place. Ballot was several pages long and you are correct, confusing.