State-by-State Analysis: Romney Could Win Majority of Super Tuesday Delegates

The New York Times ^ | 3/4/2012 | Nate Silver

[darrellmaurina]

Although the Super Tuesday states are a mix of favorable and unfavorable terrain for Mitt Romney, his situation has improved enough that he could be on track to win an outright majority of the delegates on the night.

Indeed, Mr. Romney could secure the delegate majority even if he wins as few as 4 or 5 states, based on an analysis of the current polling in each state and the complex series of rules that are used to govern delegate allocation. This path involves Mr. Romney winning all or nearly all of the delegates in his strongest states, while getting a decent minority of them in the states that he does not win; many of which tend to have more proportional delegate allocation rules.

The only way to do this correctly is to go through the states one at a time, as I have done here. States are listed in order of their total number of delegates. Combined, the 10 states that will vote on Super Tuesday have 437 delegates, although only 422 delegates are up for grabs since 15 of them are super delegates who are unbound to the results in each state. Therefore, a majority would require either 212 or 219 delegates, depending on whether you include these super delegates in the denominator.

[darrellmaurina]

This is a state-by-state Super Tuesday breakdown of delegate selection rules and projections of what will happen. Since it is the New York Times I'd want to see a detailed analysis for signs of bias, but at first read it looks like it's a useful list of what to watch for tomorrow on Super Tuesday

[proudpapa]

I would love to Virginia vote for Ron Paul!!!

[darrellmaurina]

PING to the Santorum list. It could be useful for the Gingrich people as well so I’m pinging a few people who seem to be key Gingrich Freepers.

My read is this is a good state-by-state breakdown of what to expect tomorrow. Analysis of problems with bias or factual errors would be appreciated.

[napscoordinator]

I love how Santorum is in either 1st or 2nd place in EVERY state except for Georgia where he is third and Virginia where he is not on the ballot. It is going to be an outstanding day for President Santorum tomorrow.

[ansel12]

Don’t put me on your ping list.

[CainConservative]

Georgia and Massachusetts go easily to the homeboys BUT:

Ohio

Mitt Romney 36.8%
Rick Santorum 34.3
Newt Gingrich 16.6 ..these folks need to stop Romney!

Oklahoma PROJECTION/CHANCE OF WIN

Rick Santorum 38.8% 91%
Mitt Romney 28.0 8
Newt Gingrich 23.1 1

Tennessee PROJECTION/CHANCE OF WIN

Rick Santorum 32.6% 56%
Mitt Romney 31.1 39
Newt Gingrich 26.5 5

Wisconsin (Apr. 3) PROJECTION/CHANCE OF WIN

Rick Santorum 45.8% 79%
Mitt Romney 28.8 20
Newt Gingrich 11.8 0

[Mariner]

Yes, Romney is likely to pick up a majority of delegates or very close to it.

[darrellmaurina]

@ Ansel12: As you requested, I won't repeat the ping.

For whatever it's worth, the intent was to provide information that could be useful to both Gingrich and Santorum supporters about tomorrow's Super Tuesday race.

[Diogenesis]

MITT ROMNEY - THE PROVEN BAD GOVERNOR

"As U.S. real output grew 13 percent between 2002 and 2006, Massachusetts trailed at 9 percent.
* Manufacturing employment fell 7 percent nationwide those years, but sank 14 percent under Romney, placing Massachusetts 48th among the states.
* Between fall 2003 and autumn 2006, U.S. job growth averaged 5.4 percent, nearly three times Massachusetts' anemic 1.9 percent pace.
* While 8 million Americans over age 16 found work between 2002 and 2006, the number of employed Massachusetts residents actually declined by 8,500 during those years.
"Massachusetts was the only state to have failed to post any gain in its pool of employed residents," professors Sum and McLaughlin concluded.
In an April 2003 meeting with the Massachusetts congressional delegation in Washington, Romney failed to endorse President Bush's $726 billion tax-cut proposal."
[Cato Institute annual Fiscal Policy Report Card - America's Governors, 2004.]

[deport]

Here is another opinion of the Super Tuesday delegate breakout extracted from the Table in this thread. Super Tuesday Delegate Rules and Preview; Brokered Convention Revised Math, from Townhall.com authored by Mike Shedlock.

Romney may well win the majority but there will be delegates won by Gingrich and Santorum, possible Paul.

State	Primary	Count	Romney	Santorum	Gingrich	Paul
Total to Date	-	243	99	47	32	20
Georgia	Mar 6	76	19	22	27	8
Ohio	Mar 6	66	19	27	13	7
Tennessee	Mar 6	58	16	25	7	10
Virginia	Mar 6	49	49	0	0	0
Oklahoma	Mar 6	43	11	18	9	5
Massachusetts	Mar 6	41	28	8	2	3
Idaho	Mar 6	32	32	0	0	0
North Dakota	Mar 6	28	10	12	3	3
Alaska	Mar 6	27	10	11	3	3
Vermont	Mar 6	17	11	4	1	1
Super Tuesday Est	Mar 6	782	359	202	104	72
If Paul Wins Idaho	Mar 6	782	327	202	104	104

[Vigilanteman]

You have a fairly reliable table there except I would guess Alaska would be close to a four way race. Newt gets a bump from the Palin endorsement, even it it is only Todd. Ron Paul gets a bump from the Libertarian and free pot crowd who are more concentrated in Alaska than nearly anywhere else.

[katiedidit1]

I should hold you to those Santorum wins after Super Tues...you have Newt down so low..lets see what happens and btw I doubt the Tennessee per centage you posted is correct.