Posted on 03/06/2012 12:16:38 PM PST by SMGFan
Update: One observer notes to me, "[Rep. Bob] Turner and [Rep. Maurice] Hinchey are gone. [Rep. Gary] Ackerman doesn't really have a district either, but there are seats he could run for." (Don't say we didn't warn you about a possible consolidation of the regions represented by Ackerman and Rep. Carolyn McCarthy. Also, we've known since January that Hinchey's hanging it up after this Congress.)
It also looks to me like the Rangel seat (NY-15) is majority Hispanic, but looks nothing like the highly calibrated Washington Heights/Bronx/Queens map advocated by those who signed on to this letter. And by the chart, NY-6 (Greg Meeks) comes in at 39.1% Asian?
Everyone's looking at the maps now... Regarding Long Island, Mike Seilback, for one, tweets, "Re: new maps, King (seaford) lives in new ny-02 while both Israel (dix hills) & Ackerman (roslyn heights) live in new ny-03"
(Excerpt) Read more at nydailynews.com ...
Other Long Island-area members including Steve Israel (D), Gary Ackerman (D), Carolyn McCarthy (D) and Peter King (R) also saw their territory heavily rejiggered, but they all have options to have a district to themselves. King will have to choose either to run in a district that has no incumbent but appears less favorable for Republicans or challenge McCarthy to the west. “I’ll be leaning toward running in the [open district],” King told The Hill. “She’s a friend, she’s an incumbent, and obviously you never want to run against a friend unless you have to.” Ackerman’s district currently straddles Queens and Long Island’s Nassau County, but Ackerman will be pushed into a new all-Queens district. That sets him up for a primary challenge from state Assemblyman Rory Lancman (D), who also plans to run for that seat.
http://tinyurl.com/7xjb6z5
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/redistricting/214449-court-drawn-map-in-ny-guts-turners-district-squeezes-hochul-gibson
Off topic here.
There are over 700,000 people per Congressional district.
Our 435 House members were set almost a hundred years ago when the nation had about 100 million.
It is time to at least double the membership of the House. Too many, especially Conservatives are not getting their just representation. It will also reduce the number of lawsuits that follow every census.
The boundary of any political district is a political question that should answered within the political branches.
We have over three times the population of a hundred years ago with no more representation.
I want representation, and more of it for all will reduce lawsuits.
And ‘eff your drug implication.
It made a local stir as Buffalo is still hugely-Catholic. Higgins is a Dem, too. But my money would be on him to win.
You expect the new 27th to be empty?
I would expect Meeks to run in the new black majority 5th rather than the 6th. So Ackerman runs in that 39% Asian 6th along with Lancman.
Otherwise
1 Bishop
Not sure where these 3 homes are:
2 Israel? 3 King? 4 McCarthy?
5 Meeks 6 Ackerman 7 Velazquez
8/9: Towns/Clarke
10 Nadler 11 Grimm 12 Maloney
13 Rangel 55% hispanic
14 Crowley 47% hispanic
15 Serrano
16 Engel 17 Lowey 18 Hayworth 19 Gibson 20 Tonko
21 Owens 22 Hanna 23 Reed 24 Buerkle 25 Slaughter
26 Higgins 27 empty or Hochul
Not sure what Turner could do...maybe move to the 27th?
If King did challenge McCarthy that would open up a seat for him too.
When I read the post, I hadn't yet seen a map of the proposed districts. I did today. I had heard that Higgins's district was being rolled back up to Buffalo and assumed it would include much of Hochul's.
I didn't realize either that Slaughter's ridiculous district has now been consolidated in the Rochester area [where they are welcome to her.] I suspect that you're correct that Hochul would run in the 27th -- Higgin is too popular in Buffalo for her to compete in the 26th.
The 27th may be a bit more conservative than the current 28th. It includes largely rural and conservative southern Erie County as well as Buffalo's eastern suburbs which are heavily-Catholic. It may be a good chance for a Republican to pick up if the state GOP can find anyone.
My district (23rd) is finally back to a rural district encompassing the entire Southern Tier -- it returns Chautauqua County and gets rid of Rochester's liberalish southern suburbs. Good for us!
some good maps there
The judge’s plan ... judge must be a conservative Republican. Or she doesn’t know what she is doing. Many districts are more conservative than necessary. Although Gibson looks like he got a raw deal and Turner is a goner.
The 3 northern GOPers are well taken care of on the judge’s map. SEE MAPS AT THREAD
Sounds good.
Gibson a goner? Oh well, he’s a RINO.
What’s the deal with Long Island? King’s district (which is he is draw out of) is less Republican but McCarthy’s is more Republican, but he doesn’t want to run against the illiterate piece of scum because she’s a “friend”? What a d-bag.
didn’t say gibson was a goner. But he gets a big chunk of Hinchey’s district. DEM counties. Why is Gibson a RINO?
This map ain’t the final. Just a map. The way the NY23 GOP acted, I would have liked to see Owens given a safe seat and his GOP counties moved to help GOP in another district.
Ever see the map of TUrner’s current district?
What Pete said bears repeating (re-Peting? : ), this is not *the* map, just *a* map. I haven’t paid particular attention to it, since I am certain that the two houses will come ro an agreement and the governor will sign it rather than permit the judge-drawn congressional map to go into effect (which is exactly what happened in 2002).
I had never heard of Gibson described as a RINO—to the contrary, my impression of him is ery positive. Of the Upstate GOP delegation, Hanna is reflexively pro-abortion and I would not be saddened at all were he to lose a primary, Nan Hayworth is a Sue Kelly-type, but maybe a bit less liberal on social issues, and everyone else appears to be fine.
As for NY-23, the way to make it safely Dem without wasting GOP votes that could be used to help surrounding Republicans would be to combine the three Dem North Country counties with Albany and other Dem areas from the Dem NY-21.
My dream map would place all of Buffalo, Niagara Falls and surrounding Dem areas in a single district, draw a second Dem CD in Western NY that combines Rochester, Syracuse, Ithaca and Binghampton with Dem parts of the Finger Lakes (Seneca, Auburn, etc.), the aforementioned North Country-Albany CD, an overwhelmingly Dem CD in Westchester County, and 7 GOP CDs in Upstate. I would combine black parts of Westchester with black parts of Harlem and the Bronx to make Rangel’s CD black majority, and create two Hispanic-majority CDs in the Bronx, Harlem and northern Queens. I would draw one all-Manhattan CD for Maloney and Nadler to fight over, and create a new, heavily Orthodox CD in Brooklyn that combines the Brookly portions of Nadler’s and Turner’s CDs (which gave McCain like 55% in 2008). But Turner’s Catholic bailiwick In southern Queens I would place in the State Island-Bensonhurst NY-13 (which could then shed minority neighborhoods in Staten Island), and if Turner ran there and beat out Grimm I wouldn’t shed a tear (Grimm isn’t the conservative I thought he was). The Jewish Queens precincts from Turner’s CD could be combined with Catholic precincts from Crowley’s and Maloney’s to draw a competitive Queens district. In Long Island, I would place black parts of Nassau (Hempstead, etc.) in the black-majority NY-06 centered in Queens, draw a heavily Dem CD in the South Shore for Congressmen Israel and McCarthy to fight over (Five Towns, Islip, etc.), and draw three GOP CDs in the remaining turf. With such a map, the GOP could win 12, maybe even 13 of the 27 CDs.
the Gold-kid has been doing his homework. What a whiz.
Trying to remember if you are part of the IL team .... or was it MA? Why don’t you put your state on your homepage?
And what are your thoughts on CT-5? GOP primary.
My home state is Puerto Rico, so I’m not on the IL or MA “teams” (although I follow politics in both those states, and pretty much the other 48 as well).
As for CT-05, I like Bernier, and think he has a good chance even with New Britain staying in the CT-05.
I’d like to take the opportunity to thank RINOs extraordinaire Nancy Johnson and Chris Shays for insisting that New Britain and Bridgeport stay in the CT-05 and CT-04, respectively, in 2002, instead of being sent to the heavily Dem districts to their east, which is why the courts kept those heavily Dem cities in competitive districts. RINOs will always screw us.
following Greenberg at all? CT-5.
the difficulty here is that the right-wing likes to run kamikazee candidates that get 18% of the vote. state rep seats are the most interesting races.
I hadn’t seen Greenberg’s website until just now—sounds like a good candidate. But why would he be preferable to Bernier, who has some name ID and organization from his 2010 primary run and is much younger (so he could eventually be that experienced, proven conservative with the type of résumé to run for the Senate or governorship)?
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