Skip to comments.Romney, Santorum camps at odds over delegate math (Mitt's Voodoo Math)
Posted on 03/07/2012 11:48:35 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
In a memo to reporters, Romney Political Director Rich Beeson laid out his camp's view that neither Santorum nor any of the other candidates in the race has any chance of securing enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination......
"Super Tuesday dramatically reduced the likelihood that any of Governor Romney's opponents can obtain the Republican nomination," Beeson wrote. "As Governor Romney's opponents attempt to ignore the basic principles of math, the only person's odds of winning they are increasing are President Obama's."
Beeson cited Romney's current lead in delegates and a tough upcoming primary and caucus calendar as examples of the tough road ahead for Romney's rivals. CNN currently estimates Romney to have won 404 delegates, well ahead of Santorum at 165, Newt Gingrich with 106 and Ron Paul with 66. A candidate needs 1,144 delegates to seal up the GOP nomination.
"Neither opponent succeeded in closing his delegate deficit, and the calendar ahead offers them dwindling opportunities to close the gap," Beeson wrote. "Looking at the weeks ahead, the remaining 34 contests have turned into a steep uphill climb for Governor Romney's opponents."
But, speaking to CNN, Santorum campaign adviser John Brabender brushed off the Romney campaign's analysis as "voodoo math," saying the figures were meant to dissuade voters from casting ballots for rival candidates.
"What he is saying he wants to do is disenfranchise Republican primary voters," Brabender said, pointing out that many of the delegates currently awarded to Romney in estimates were non-binding.
"What Romney is trying to do is call the game before it's even halftime because he has a lead," Brabender said.
He asserted conservatives shouldn't let a "moderate" dictate the winner of the Republican primary.
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com ...
They are trying to "disenfranchise" primary voters by calling the game for Romney.
What sort of president would Romney make if he’s already “cheating” for votes?
Here's my analysis from my latest update to my GOP Primary Tracker Site:
In the popular vote, to date Romney leads with over 3.2 million votes which is right at 40%. Santorum is second with 2 million votes or 26% , Gingrich is third with 1.8 million votes or 22% and Ron Paul is fourth with 900 thousand votes or 11%.
The effectiveness of Romney's campaign however, can be measured in his delegate count. Although he has only one 40% of the popular vote, this has translated to date into 431 delgates or 54% of the total delegates awarded to date. Santorum follows with 176 delegates or 21%, Gingrich with 126 or 15% and Paul with 79 delegates or 10%. At this rate, Romney has a good chance of winning the delegates needed to clinch the nomination before the convention, but it will go on until late in the season.
So, after Santorum's three win in February, Romney bounced back with five straight wins. On March 6th, Super Tuesday, Romney added six more wins, Santorum three more, and Gingrich one more. Romney is estatic about coming from behind and winning Ohio, though it was a near thing. Because of the closeness of the Ohio votes, and his other three wins, Santorum vows to stay in. Gingrich because of his strong win in his home state of Georgia also vows to stay in, and there was never any question, even with no wins, that Ron Paul will stay in on principle.
In my opinion, the tough primary season, despite pundents prognostications, continues to strengthen the candidates, keeping the GOP message at the top of the news cycle, and preparing the nominee to fight Obama. Any of the four would be orders of magnitude better than Barack Obama and his dismal failures. Here's the GOPTracking results now after Super Tuesday.
|2012 GOP Primaries||Date||Mitt Romney||Newt Gingrich||Rick Santorum||Ron Paul||Ron Huntsman||Rick Perry||Michele Bachman||Herman Cain||Totals|
|At large Del's||23||4||1||0||0||0||0||28|
|To Date % of||Delegates||Romney||53%||Gingrich||15%||Santorum||21%||Paul||10%||Huntsman||<1%||Perry||0%||Bachman||0%||Cain||0%|
Romney will most probably at this point begin to pivot and focus more and more on going head to head with Obama and concentrating on finding a VP pick that will solidify as much of the party and base as he can for the general election.
Only by uniting, can Santorum and Gingrich now prevent Romney from having a real strong chance of winning the nomination outright. At this point I think the best they can hope for is a brokered convention...otherwise, mathematically, I believe Romney will ultimately eak out a win...probably at the 50-55% range of delegates needed. It seems at this point, for whatever reason, that Gingrich and Santorum are unwilling to unite, so they will continue to split the more conservative vote and allow Romney to win more contests and win a larger proportion of delegates in so doing. In the end, I will support any of the GOP candidates, whichever wins the nomination against the abject marxist ideolog, Obama, as any one of them will be far better than Barack Obama. Four more years of his horrific leadership and fundamental change could easily put this nation in a economic, debt, foreign policy, and energy hole we will have a very difficult and very painful time of digging our way out of...and at the cost of decades of heavy burden placed on our children and grandchildren.
If you have a mind, please ping others to this GOP Primary Tracker page.
America is at the crossroads of history and we must choose aright
March 7, 2012
Fox News quoted Larry Sabato who said the VA GOP fixed their primary to keep people off the ballot. That they favor Romney and that the powers that be in VA made it happen.
Of course they did. Sounds like there were some late rules adjustments in Florida as well.
Yes. Mine differ because in some of the states where they have not allocated committed delegates yet, I have projected them based on the votes in the counties and districts. As soon as those numbers firm up, I update my chart to agree.
So, my chart contains all of the hard allocated ones, plus the others I project, but that will be firmly allocated as soon as the local, state boards announce all of their numbers. When they do, I update my chart to the hard numbers.
Nice site that.
Newt Gingrich is ahead of Santorum on delegate count. Time for Santos to shut piehole take it like a man and compete.
Team Santorum needs to stop calling for Gingrich to drop.
Well...unless they also want to disenfranchise Republican primary voters.
Yes. Since the FL GOP moved their primary up (Jan 31?) before March 1 they should have apportioned the delegates and not given the 50 (was 99 but docket to 50 as "punishment") but they could give them all back at the Tampa convention if it suits them).
It has tons of information. You can get lost in there.
“They are trying to ‘disenfranchise’ primary voters by calling the game for Romney”
You are a mere two quotation marks away from adopting one of the commonest and stupidest liberal tactics.
I was playing off the article’s use the expession.
And he is.
I’d like to see Newt and Santorum work together to some extent: In the winner take all states, I’d like the one who is running behind in that individual state to withdraw and throw his support to the other. In the proportional states, I’d prefer that they fight it out and take as many votes and delegates from Romney as possible. I have a preference (Newt) but I could vote for either Gingrich or Santorum. I will not vote for Romney even if he is the nominee, and I want to see that RINO stopped. I don’t think America will be recognizable in four years if we have a Romney-Obama contest this year.
An excellent dimocRAT.
“I was playing off the articles use the expession.”
I gathered from the quotes.
“And he is.”
Well, then, you weren’t “playing off” the article, you were agreeing with the article. You only alluded to the article’s use to get around making the claim yourself, as was my point. Which begs the question, now that you’ve said it outright (”and he is”), why you didn’t save me time and come out with dirty lib doublespeak from the get-go.
I agree with your post, but why are the other 17 states not on your list? Most of those are on the left and right coast and more Romney friendly, i.e. California and New York.
How many winner take all states left will lean Romney? That should be interesting.
Go pick a fight with someone else.
I don’t mind the proportional method. It’s like the Electoral college. Romney zeros in on the high population centers and the rural areas have no voice.
There will be more winner take all coming down the line.
“Go pick a fight with someone else”
Okay. If you don’t feel like justifying your use of “disenfranchise” as anything but egregious, I’m content to rest on victory.
In a way, Santorum had that opportunity in Michigan when Newt did not campaign there.
You insult me and then run like a rat shouting “victory” because I won’t engage you. You argue like a woman.
Great work! Thanks!
“In a way, Santorum had that opportunity in Michigan when Newt did not campaign there.”
So why bother with primary voting if come hell or high water the numbers WILL be what the party elites want anyway?
They may just as well pick their person and alienate party members and "dictate" who will be "our" choice.
Advertising dollars in a local economy, and a chance for boot-licking media and would-be appointees to humiliate themselves before their masters.
So santorum’s guy is blasting romney for doing what santorum himself is doing - which is to discourage voters from supporting their opponents and trying to get their opponents t drop out. This is a friggin circus.
The Romney camp doesnt want to have Mitt go to his right to win. The Tea Party voters are pushing the agenda far beyond where the Establishment wishes to go. The Roves of the party decided long ago, then the party must never to any further right than George W, Bush, and no movement conservative in Texas ever thought the President to be one of them.
So, if a candidate manages to take 35% of the vote, with the remaining 65% going to other candidates, but split to the point that none of them manage to top 35%, then all of that state’s delegates should go to someone who the majority of the public rejected? The point of the state primaries is for delegates to be selected that provide a reasonable representation of the party at the national convention. Winner-take-all distorts this to a large degree, and would have guaranteed a Romney win by now. It isn’t “dumbing down”, it’s a system that produces a much more accurate reflection of the party voters.
The fix was in from the start. The establishment has manipulated, and continues to manipulate the system to ensure a Romney victory.
I stopped the list at that date...will add more later if necessary.
The next 10 days will show results in Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi and Missouri. If Newt can’t pull off at least one of those states (and if Santorum gets a sweep), it will make no sense for Newt to remain in the race. Having said that, the only way I see for Santorum to head off Romney is to take the bold step of declaring Newt as his VP running mate before the big primaries in Illinois on March 20 and Louisiana on March 24. A sweep of those two states would give the Santorum-Gingrich team huge momentum heading into the stretch run. Maryland, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Nebraska, Oregon, Arkansas, Kentucky and Texas all vote before the end of May. Nine of those states would be a lock for Santorum-Gingrich and they’d be competitive in Maryland, New York and Oregon. You never know what will happen if Romney loses his sheen of inevitability. Tough situations call for bold action. Santorum and Newt need to get in a room and sort this out in the next 10 days. The window of opportunity will soon close.
If they were able and willing to do that, I agree, they would create the best shot for 1st, stopping Romney getting an outright nomination, and setting themselves up to do so instead.
Just listening to Kristol on FNC say that the next three States will be a win for Santorum and that Gingrich may have no alternative but to make it a two way race and bow out. They’ve already determined that Newt could not possibly win the next three States and believes Santorum has an outside chance of possibly pulling this out one-on-one against Romney.
How is it possible for you to misunderstand such a simple idea?
Do you actually read what you post?
Remember brevity is the soul of wit.
Kristol is talking out his rear end.
Actually, I do...and you are certainly free to either read it or not and hold whatever opinion of it you will.
Be that as it may, I am also under no obligation and was unaware of any need to, “run it by you” for your approval before doing so.
Folks will find it useful and informative or not as they will. I just put it out there.
But have a great day.
As always Jeff, answering questions or making statements to what was not stated or asked. A+
Are you kidding me, svcw? Really?
Well, let's see, who jumped into this and started it?
Your post number 41 out of the blue was a comment that answered questions or made statements to me that were not stated or asked for as well, were they not?
So, Doc...heal thyself. You have a case of the Kettle calling the Pot black syndrome, IMHO.
If you don't like what I write...I'm sorry and that's fine. But there's no need to make a dispareging comment about it since it was not addressed to you in the first place anyway. I certainly don't go noticing your posts made to others on whatever topic and feel the need to make such statements about them.
Try and reciprocate...it'd be kind of nice.
Much as I don't like it, I'm thinking that George Stephanolopis was right in his candid remark that it is going to be a Romney/Santorum ticket.
To be honest, most of the delegates so far are non binding.
Of the bound delegates:
Romney - 315
Newt - 105
Santorum - 78
Paul - 29
As for Santorum, he got great momentum from the Co, Mn, Mo day, but absolutely no secured delegates, which is probably why Newt and Mitt didnt try very hard there. Had those delegates been up for the taking, Im sure they would have. There is still a long way to go, and all four candidates have different approaches.
Santorum is going for state wins, regardless of delegates, in order to stay ahead in the national psyche.
Romney is going for superdelegates (usually party guys) and delegate heavy primaries.
Paul is going for delegate registration, regardless of winning in the state, in order to secure delegates at the conventions.
Gingrich seems to be using a similar tactic as Romney, and going for delegate heavy primaries.
But at this point Romney has 3 times as many delegates as his closest competitor, and has more committed delegates than the other three combined. Of course, he is still only about 1/4 of the way to being the winner based on delegates, but it is the reality right now.
Well, Romney also said he didnt think he should get both at large votes.
Whoa! Nice work. That deserves its own thread.