Skip to comments.Southern swing could help Romney by elevating Gingrich (What rick is seeing)
Posted on 03/07/2012 12:02:23 PM PST by VinL
The South doesnt like Mitt Romney very much.
The South is Mitt Romneys best friend right now.
Those two statements, while seemingly at odds with each other, might both be true in the coming weeks.
While Romney has shown a complete inability to win Southern states (a quirky race in Virginia aside), a succession of Southern states holding contests in the weeks ahead could actually play right into his hands by elevating Newt Gingrich back to the level of serious contender.
And if that happens, Rick Santorums path to victory gets much tougher.
A look ahead shows how it might happen.
Gingrich has won both of the Deep South states that have voted so far South Carolina and Georgia and the remaining ones will all vote in the next three weeks.
The biggest contests next Tuesday are a pair of primaries in Alabama and Mississippi. The Louisiana primary follows 11 days later, on March 24.
These three primaries constitute about half of the major contests over the next month, so they will be focal points.
Does Gingrich win all of them? That remains to be seen.
What we know right now is that he has turned in very impressive victories in both Georgia and South Carolina, winning both by double digits. He also finished within six points of Santorum in Oklahoma a kind of hybrid between a Southern state and a Midwestern one which is a respectable showing given his lack of traction in recent weeks...
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
And the wild card is Sarah- she first dipped a toe, then yesterday an entire leg, and hopefully, she will soon be all in for Newt. She stumps for Newt- then Rick better pack it in.
Newt will rise again.
At this point, it is all about denying Romney 1144 delegates. That’s it, period.
Newt and Rick both help with that right now.
Rick winning KS and Newt the upcoming southern states would futher our cause. We can do this, and we will.
Im absolutely convinced that Newt Gingrich is the junkyard dog we need to rip Obama a new one and send him slinking back to his Chicago slime pit with his tail between his legs. Newt has plenty of DC experience as Speaker, executive ability from his many enterprises, and a silver tongue thats razor sharp! Hes fast on his feet, delivers it straight up with no hemming and hawing, and is often witty. His work with American Solutions was very impressive and as weve seen recently, Newt is able to put into words what the vast majority of Americans really believe. His fevered brain also has plenty of ideas for making government work better for taxpayers. Is Newt pure as new-driven snow? No - none of the presidential candidates are in line for sainthood. Whatever Newts baggage, it pales next to Obamas habitual lying and outright corruption - and unlike Obama, Newt is 100% American! Newt is like Larry the Cable Guy: send him to DC and hell Get er done for all of us. Newt has “Been there, done that! Junkyard dogs are not show dogs, but theyll save your bacon!
I am so damn mad at what Obama and his bootlicking kleptocrats have stolen from us - and you should be too - and I want someone to represent me! Newt Gingrich is that man! Sic im, Newt!
Deny Romney delegates! Take it to a brokered convention (where Santorum’s unbound delegates can get behind Newt!)!
Yep, deny Romney 1144 and the game starts after the first vote at the Convention.
Yup, Santo sees losing in the South.
My wife has been saying “Newt Will Rise Again in the South” that was her mantra before South Carolina. We are in Mississippi and will see Newt in Southaven Thursday night. All of our family has either voted for or will vote for Newt, they are in Florida, Mississippi, Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma.
Well, two out of three ain't bad. Newt's many “enterprises” were mainly shells for funding his book-writing operations.
Okay-—what the heck is going on with the mainstream media today???
Here’s a somewhat balanced piece about Newt’s chances in the South. And all afternoon during the top of the hour Fox Radio news breaks, they played great clips of Newt campaigning! Now mind you, in the run up to Tuesday I didn’t hear one word about Newt, let alone clips. I figured if they said anything about Newt today, it would be people encouraging him to get out.
Since I don’t trust these people at all, what do you think they’re up to?
“At this point, it is all about denying Romney 1144 delegates. Thats it, period. Newt and Rick both help with that right now.”
Rick Santorum’s campaign manager disagrees. He was on the radio news today demanding that Gingrich pull out of the race.
Why is that?
“I figured if they said anything about Newt today, it would be people encouraging him to get out.”
They were. Rick’s campaign manager was just played on a radio report demanding that Newt get out.
Entire Leg. Maybe we can get Todd to push her the rest of the way.
Course then if Newt goes on an wins the Nomination. What does he do with here. Will be a waste of talent to put her in the VP spot.
THAT”S OUR STORY AND WE’RE STICKING TO IT!.........GO NEWT!
I think you know the answer to that question.
Divide and Conquer.
The Newt supporters failed math class. Apparentally, in a state like MS where getting over 50> of the vote wins all the delegates, instead of Santorum winning them all by Newt dropping out, they think it would be better for Newt to stay in, which keeps everybody under 50% and the delegates proportionally allocated. Just like what happened in OK and TN.
Mathematically, it is looking more likely impossible to stop Romney from getting to 1,144 if he keeps picking up delegates in places he shouldn’t be getting them in. I have the state charts. He could very well be at 1050-1100 by convention time, allowing remaining undecided Superdelegates to throw it to him.
The race MUST go 1-on-1. If not, Romney is the nominee. It’s that simple.
And Sarah Palin said to Santorum’s campaign manager; “OH, BOO-HOO! Quit whining!” (I LOL’d over that one. she is great!)
It seems fairly simple. He thinks that will help ensure Rick’s victory.
i disagree, but to each his own.
ROmney will pick up 17 or 18 delegates in Georgia.
If Santorum had just gotten 4000 more votes in Georgia, Romney owuld have only gotten 13 or 14 delegates.
4000 votes, even if they were just 4000 gingrich supporters going to Santorum, would have cost 4 valuable delegates for Romney.
Secretary of energy.
If Rick had concentrated on Ohio, he might have one there.
If Rick had concentrated on Ohio, he might have one there.
[The Newt supporters failed math class.]
LOL! And you think Santorum can magically get himself on the ballot in the 4 states he failed to get certified for?
You are right, somebody failed math class, but it sure wasn’t the Newt supporters!
First of all, it won’t be one on one because Uncle Ron will still be in. Second, why doesn’t Santorum pull out of MS and AL to give Newt a clear shot at Romney? That would deny Romney any proportional delegates.
mangia, (potentially fellow American of Italian descent)- I assume you’re thinking they’re trying to split the conservative vote— I don’t think so.
They hate Newt- he goes after the MSM, Romney and the GOP-e; they don’t want him in the race.
I think they constantly mention him only because Newt is controversial- he’s always news. It’s similar to Gov. Palin- you mention her, and she’s a magnet for opinion- pro and con.
Ah, I see the problem now. Your math class has been run Paulbots and you bought the "Santorum ain't on the ballot in at least 5 major states" B.S. (though you skipped class early and missed the part where they claimed the same B.S. about Gingrich)
I'll be voting for Santorum (and all of his delegates) here in Illinois, one of the states the Paulbot loons claim he "ain't on the ballot and doesn't have delegates". The Illinois State Board of Elections says otherwise.
Freep, we are pulling out all stops, eh??? -:)
She said that? Ha! on twitter?
And how did Alaska vote last night?
Newt can beat Obama, Santorum can’t.
If you are anti-Romney, that’s the cold hard reality.
Santorum has zero chance of winning a national campaign.
I’ll vote for whoever the nominee is, but if Santorum is the nominee, I know Obama’s won a second term.
“It seems fairly simple. He thinks that will help ensure Ricks victory.”
“Seem is right. JMHO, I still think “Rick the younger” is after the VP slot for Romney, to help “unify” the social conservatives with the establishment. Gingrich staying in screws that plan royally. Here’s a thought. If this was not the plan, Romney would have gone negative on Santorum long ago, and sewed up the nomination on Super Tuesday. He didn’t.
Romney won Alaska last night. 33 to 29.
No he wouldn’t have.
Rick can only get 50-55% of the Republican vote in PA.. he’s a milk toast... he had no chance in Ohio. Closer you get to PA where folks actually know the guy, the less votes he’s going to get.
Santorum has zero chance of winning a national campaign.
He’s VP calibre at best, at the top of the ticket, its a landslide for the dems.
Look, I’m no Santorum booster, but he did get awfully close to winning Ohio.
Based on Rick’s history of taking things for the team, I could easily see him folding up his campaign were Gingrich to drop out thus clearing the field for Romney.
Virginia, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, Illinois, Indiana, Washington DC.
You seem to think that you can immediately get the upper hand in a discussion, or win a debate, by being as rude and nasty as possible to someone who disagrees with you.......
That aspect of your personality is obvious. Whether it automatically wins the argument for you or not, is also, even more obvious.
Sure thing bud......The stops are gone!
I seem to remember Santorum backers swearing he would have no problems in Ohio and Tennessee, and that claiming he did was all a conspiracy to keep him down.
Sure enough, we now see he has major problems in both states, and will suffer delegate-wise because of it.
Now you tell me he has no problems in Illinois? I’m in Illinois, and I am fully aware he has problems. It ain;t a conspiracy, it’s real!
The problem is your opinion contradicts reality. Santorum is within 7.2% of Obama in the RCP average and Newt is 12.9% behind Obama:
I’m with you. I think LA will follow what AL and MS do. Southerners don’t want Romney. Newt should get a good bounce off GA. Also he has more money now and a new super pac.
Tokyo Rove’s remark that Palin’s endorsement “don’t mean snot” may push her to a full endorsement of Newt.
That isn’t a problem, at this same point in 1980 polling showed that Ford could easily beat Carter and Reagan was a guaranteed loser.
Polling is just not meaningful at this point.
ABC-Harris poll, March 10, 1980:
When pitted against President Carter among a cross section of 1,498 likely voters, Ford runs ahead by a 54-44 percent margin. By contrast , among the same voters , Reagan trails Carter by 58-40 percent .
Tokyo Roves remark that Palins endorsement dont mean snot may push her to a full endorsement of Newt.
He is dumb. He was saying that because she voted for him and he ended up last in Alaska. The problem with the idiot is she mentioned she voted for him AFTER the polls closed or very close before. So he thinks he is being cleaver, but we see through him big time.
He got close to winning with less than 40% of the vote.
He won’t carry OH, or PA if he’s the nominee, or countless other states.
In PA currently, his home state, where he served as a senator, etc etc etc.. he can’t crack 50-55% in any poll in a republican primary. What does that tell you? Well about 30% of the state is Republican if that, which means he’s got the support of about 15% or so of the electorate in his own home state.
Santorum will be demolished in a general election, anyone who thinks otherwise, needs to stop listening to the talking points santorum is claiming about 06 and go look at the facts.
Santorum LOST PA by 17 points in 06, he didn’t lose by that big of a margin because his opponents name was Casey, or it was a bad year for Dems, or because he endorced Spectre. Yes, none of those things helped his cause, but even combined those things do not equate to a 17 point routing. Had Santorum lost by 5 or 7 points those arguments might hold some weight, however he didnt, he LOST by 17!..
He LOST by 17, and is still hugely unpopular in PA because in 2006 the left very effectively painted Santorum as a radical extremist, using his own words and sound bites against him. They painted him as well outside the acceptable mainstream in a state that while democratic in voters, is actually socially relatively conservative. Santorum had absolute no answer to this, was unable to counter any of it effectively and was destroyed on election day.
This same gameplan will be launched against him if he is the nominee in 12 and it will be just if not more effective, because Santorum hasn’t changed at all since 06. Not only that, the money and attacks will be on an astronomical scale compared to the 06 attacks, he has no counter for it. Santorum’s social conservative views, aren’t his problem, his lack of being able to articulate them effectively without giving a soundbite that comes off making him look foolish or hateful. He doesn’t have the oratory skill or intellect to defend his social positions in a way that doesn’t provide endless fodder to the portrayal of him as a radical extremist.
Those are the facts, the press has largely played hands off so far with Santorum, as has the left, but you think once he’s the nominee it won’t change? Be serious. He’ll be on the defensive out of the gate and never recover, just like 06.
I will vote for the nominee whoever it is, because any of these guys is better than Fauxbama, however I know the only chance Obama has of winning is if the R’s put up someone that they can paint as a completely unacceptable alternative, because the electorate is by and large itching to get rid of the bum, but if the R’s put up someone that winds up being viewed as too extreme they’ll stay home or leave the status quo alone.
Polling at this point is MEANINGLESS..
Santorum hasn’t faced a single attack ad from the left in this election. And even the Republican primary attack ads that Romney has launched have largely left santorums countless faux pas on social issues out of the mix. That won’t be the case in a general election.
You want to see how Santorum will do in a general election, go look at ‘06. The left painted him as unacceptable and extremist using his own words against him, Santorum never was able to counter it, and he lost by 17 points.
That’s the facts, and that’s exactly what will happen in the general. The idea he lost PA by 17 points because of the spectre endorcement, the democratic tide or that his opponent was named Casey is NONSENSE.. those things didn’t help, but those things combined might have meant a 5-7 point loss, Santorum lost by 17.
He lost by 17 because he was very effectively painted as too far outside the mainstream and as a radical to the electorate. He never was able to counter any of it, and in spite of having an opponent who literally no showed the election, wound up being absolutely crushed.
And that’s in a state that while Democratic, is fairly socially conservative. Santorum has no chance of carrying major swing states in a national election, and that’s the cold hard truth.
Its not Santorums social conservative views that make him unelectable, its his lack of oratory skills and intellect when attempting to defend them. He gives sound bite fodder to be used against him like Biden gives gaffes.
This utterly ridiculous. Why do you think Obama and the Democrats have been talking about contraception for weeks? To attack Santorum.
The facts are Newt has more baggage than anyone in the race is the easiest one to take down with negative attacks. Romney's sleaze machine had a lot easier time taking Newt out in Florida than it did taking Santorum down in Ohio or Michigan.