The older I get the more I realize that the Reagan Administration was an anomaly and not the norm in Republican Politics.
You are absolutely right. Reagan winning the nomination was an exception to the rule that the establishment candidate must win.
However, I think he did benefit from the “next in line” rule. But he still had to fight off the establishment.
To be nominated as a Republican, one must be either the “establishment guy”, or be the person whose turn it is.
Bob Dole was both the establishment guy and next in line. Ditto George W. Bush.
John McCain was not the establishment guy in 2008 (Rudy Giuliani was), but he was next in line.
In 2012, Romney is both. It is difficult for an insurgent candidate to win the GOP nomination. Goldwater is probably the last to do in 1964, when he beat the establishment candidate, Rockefeller.
Reagan came close as an insurgent in ‘76 against a sitting President.
The 1980 election was unique in many way. I fear that Americans are too stupid today to realize just how bad things are.