Skip to comments.VANITY- DELEGATE NIGHTMARE!
Posted on 03/07/2012 7:50:03 PM PST by georgiagirl_pam
R- 404 S- 161 G- 105 P- 61
OMG, this is a nightmare. PLEASE GOD, TELL ME HOW I AM WRONG!
Go to the RCP delegate count page. I am using their numbers, they may be off a little but not much. Print it off. Add up the number of total delegates left (bound and unbound, winner take all and proportional.) You will get 1475. It takes 1144 to win. So right now:
Romney needs 740 Santorum needs 983 Gingrich needs 1039 Paul needs 1414
Romney needs to win 50% of the delegates left to clinch.
Santorum needs to win (get this!!) 66.66% of the delegates left to clinch
Gingrich needs to win 70% of the delegates left to clinch.
Now, go through the list, be intellectually honest with yourself, and pull out the delegates that you know Romney will win, no matter who and how many candidates are still in or out.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
I agree—they all need to stay in. I don’t believe all Gingrich supporters will jump behind Santorum (I won’t—I will skip the primary). I don’t believe Santorum voters will all jump behind Gingrich and I think most Paul supporters won’t get behind Gingrich, Santorum or Romney.
I am of the mind they all need to stay in and fight as hard as they can. Go Gingrich!
TAKE IT TO THE CONVENTIONS!!!!
I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR A YEAR NOW WE NEED A TEA PARTY MARCH ON GOP HEADQUARTERS
LET’S DO IT THEN
The game now is for every non-Romney to steal as many delegates from Romney as possible. After the first ballot, delegates can do other things also there are a lot of uncommitted delegates.
This is why Ron Paul's campaign has been known to work to get delegates favorable to him registered for other candidates.
you just undermined your own argument.
If Santorum/Gingrich stay in, in these Southern states where proportional applies, they’re going to split, and that’s going to allow Romney to get more delegates than he should. Look at OK yesterday. The same is going to play out in the other Southern states.
Santorum/Gingrich must combine. Then the person can sweep the south and midwest and get back to an even race. If they both stay in, proportional allocation will destroy them.
Romney doesn’t have to get 1,144. He can get to 1,044 and whatever undecided Supers there are will probably jump on board with him if he has more votes/victories if both Newt and Santorum remain in the race but are several hundred delegates behind.
It’s now or never. Someone’s got to get out, or Romney takes it. If Gingrich exited the race prior to Friday, the whole dynamic would change.
If you live in one of the upcoming primary states, contact the Santorum or Newt campaign and tell them you want to help.
You’re right georgia girl. We need to fight.
Please excuse my ignorance. But if the delegates vote their states, and Romney is the overall candidate, how can there be a second vote?
President Baracchio is laughing, quietly muttering 'Thank you, Satan".
All stay in. This is our best option. It won’t be easy with that dang GOP establishment wanting Romney so badly, but our best chance is to fight to the death for either Newt or Santorum at the convention. I am interested in seeing a convention anyway and how it works. I think it would be a great education for some of us not familiar to the process. I still would like a Gingrich/Santorum ticket so that we are guaranteed 16 years of Republican Presidency.
I am a Newt supporter but I just don’t see a path for Newt to capture the nomination before Tampa. His southern strategy didn’t work — he lost Tennesee and Oklahoma and he needed both of them.
Santorum can come closer but it is highly unlikely that he can hit the magic number any more than Newt can.
I think Newt and Santorum can/should both stay in, however, just to deny Romney as many delegates as possible. Get everyone to the convention and hope for a miracle. The more splintered the convention with nominees the more unusual the miracle may be.
However, Romney won in a state with no competition, others are liberal or mormon heavy, it's not the case from here on out (I think).
We must go to a brokered convention, there are so many uncommitted delegates, even if Romney squeaks by using total delegates he still might not make it.
If he does win, I will not vote for him - period.
I took the pledge and put my name in as a delegate. I pray I get it.
I don’t get why you’re freaking.
Even if your calculations are correct, Gingrich plus Santorum will stil likely win a clear majority of the delegates. So on a second ballot, the candidate with less delegates recommends that his delegates support the other, and thus either Gingrich or Santorum prevail over Romney.
But that assumes that we need a second ballot. What your analysis ignores is that many of the delegates awarded so far - particularly to Santorum - are “soft,” not hard. Thus, if the delegate-momentum and popular vote-momentum swings Newt’s way, many of those delegates will vote for Newt on a first ballot, in order to defeat Romney.
At the convention, if there is not one candidate that got enough delegates to clinch after the first vote, then all delegates are released to vote for whomever they want to in the subsequent tries. Confusing convention rules, but I think we all need to start pressing for some written details in those rules RIGHT NOW!
Romney is not well liked, I do not think he would win because of that.
But hey, what do I know. ;-)
So, if he has enough votes (delegates) based on the way states have voted to get the nomination on the first vote, he is in?
Sorry to keep bothering you, just need to know.
You are not being honest with yourself, sorry. Go through the list. Just “pretend” that it is only Mitt and Rick. Then add up the delegates that you know Mitt will win, no matter what.
Do you REALLY think that Rick can win NY or NJ or CA or MD, just to name a few against Mitt?
Proportional or winner take all, doesn’t matter. I am looking at percentage of total needed.
The case could, and would, be made that Romney wasn’t a strong enough candidate to win the nomination. If you can’t get your base behind you, how can you expect to win in the general?
The herd has to pile on Romney, take every thing they can from him individually and hope that collectively they make a death of a thousand cuts, then we see what happens at the convention, and anything that isn’t “Romney” is an improvement, and who knows, something even better than that could come of it.
Anticipating the result of a convention fight, is kind of like polling the general election at this point, nobody knows what would really happen, let’s stop Romney, and then see what comes of it.
There was a poll showing Santorum pushing Romney for the lead in California about two weeks back. As for NY, NJ, or MD, Rick can do much better there than Newt has proven to be the case.
Right, if he has 1144 or more delegates, he is in. If no one has the magic number then the delegates cast their first vote (what they are bound to) and then they are released. Mitt still may win it BUT at least we have a shot that way.
Thank you, now I understand. Education is a wonderful thing.
It is like a knife fight, every little bit helps, defeat Romney in the primary first, then we will deal with the next step.
Well, ending with Mitt isn’t ending well either. I just don’t see any other way to even have a chance at someone other than him.
We have a ton of people who didn’t want to put themselves through 12 months of this. If the convention decides, a lot more people could jump forward.
Susan Martinez, Jim Demint, Sarah Palin, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, John Kasich, etc.
The joy of a brokered convention is that literally anything could happen.
And then the media only has 3 months to attack the nominee.
Tonight on BOR, Rove said that he thought there was a good chance that Rick would win NY, and win slightly in CA. I about feel out of my chair.....
Great start to the conversation. Bed now, I look forward to reading your posts tomorrow.
If money counts for anything in winning an election, then this protracted battle helps one candidate: Obama
Newt can still do it if he wins Texas and others as explained here:
Add together the popular votes total so far of Santorum + Gingrich. It’s around 4 million v. 3.2 million for Romney.
This disparity will continue (if not increase) as the primaries continue, as Romney get just a smidgen of votes in states such as Alabama and Mississippi, and “wins” proportional-representation states with just 30%-45% of the vote. If you do the math, it looks like if both Gingrich and Santorum stay in the race, they’ll garner in the neighborhood of 60% of the popular vote (plus the clear majority of the delegates).
Now imagine at the convention what’s left of the Republican establishment trying to force-feed Romney on the the party, after 60% or more of the primary & caucus participants voted against him (and that’s not even counting those who voted for Ron Paul.) I don’t think they will be able to do it. Particularly when the obvious political move would be for the leading conservative candidate to announce, at the convention, the other as his Vice Presidential pick.
Even Jeb is better than Mitt.
The point is to deny Mitt the 1144 delegates needed, and then defeat him with another nominee at the convention, whether it be Gingrich, Santorum, Jeb, Palin, or someone else, so long as the nominee meets the “acceptable” threshold.
If all we get is an “acceptable” ticket, it is still miles ahead of the GOP-E Liberal they are trying to cram down our throats right now. I’ll take an acceptable candidate over Mitt and declare victory with a great deal of glee!
We CAN do this, we absolutely CAN!
P.S. The supposed delegate count still does not include Missouri (Rick), and does not have all of the delegates Newt will get (more in GA, for example). It also assumes Florida gets to defy all GOP rules and award all 50 delegates to Romney, which the current and former head of the GOP say Florida cannot do.
The REAL delegate count INCLUDING all of these things has Newt and Rick combining for more delegates than Mitt.
A brokered convention would see a new candidatesomeone other than Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney or Rick Santorumenter the remaining primaries or parachute in during the convention (if no existing candidate has secured a majority of delegates). In backroom deals, either based partly on the strength of his late primary performances or only on the discretion of party leaders, he would become the nominee.
A contested convention, on the other hand, would see no dark horse enter but none of the existing candidates arrive in Tampa with a 1,144 majority of delegates. Lots of wheeling and dealing would ensue, and after several ballots a nominee would emerge from the four current candidates.
Yeah, it’s not looking good. I just did some quick estimates, giving Romney all or most of the delegates from KS, HI, MO, IL, WI, MD, DC, NY, CT, RI, DE, OR, CA, NJ, and UT, and most of the delagates from Puerto Rico, Guam, Samoa, etc. If he takes only those, he’ll easily get over 1100. I think the only chance is to try and make the proportional primaries in those states split their votes as much as possible AND Gingrich and Santorum will need to pool their delegates at the end of the day, one way or another.
If Paul gives his delegates to Romney, as I think he will, it’s probably over no matter what.
He doesn’t even need to get the superdelegates. If he can get to 1083, even if Paul doesn’t get even one more delegate, he’ll get Paul to drop out before the convention and direct his 61 delegates to vote Romney.
If the largest group of voters have chosen to support Romney, are you saying that we should subvert their votes in order to get one of our lesser candidates nominated?
Is it possible that a fairly large portion of the Romney supporters would be moderates or independents and that they may not vote for our nominee?
I believe it would be better to let the voters decide on their nominee and quit trying to kink the system with hairbrained ideas that likely will backfire on you.
I do not think either Romney or Gingrich would trade their delegates at a brokered convention for a VP slot but Santorum would. Should Romney come up a bit short on delegates when the convention rolls around I would not rule out the prospect of a Romney/Santorum ticket with Santorum bartering delegates for the slot. Santorum is young and as VP he knows he would be in a better position for another swing at the grand prize down the road.
This is where you are wrong. Have you gone through every state’s rules for how it allocates it’s delegates.
MD is WTA by CD + 10 delegates to the State winner. While Santorum won’t win the state, as most MD Freepers would agree he would have a good shot to win the 1st (Andy Harris, Eastern Shore, Harford, Cecil) and 6th (Bartlett, Frederick and West). That’s only 6 delegates, but if Newt stays in, what happened in MI, OH, AK, MA, OK, etc, would happen in MD and Romney could win those 6 delegates in those 2 CD’s by splitting the Anti-Romney vote.
NJ is WTA, doesn’t matter, neither has a chance there.
In NY, it is also WTA by CD similar to MD. Santorum would be concentrating on PA, but there’s about 6 CD’s here he could win off of, and while that’s only 18 delegates, it’s still 18 delegates Romney gets denied, whereas Newt might take enough support in those CD’s to once again split the Anti-Romney and allow Romney all 95 delegates.
Then there’s California. There’s may 15 CD’s I’d call conservative, if there even is that many for 45 delegates. Again, it’s about keeping Romney from getting all 172. Huckabee took enough of the conservative vote in CA in 2008 that Romney was unable to win in all but just 5 CD’s, with McCain winning the other 49.
Actually, I have added all the Romney favorable states. Start with 405.
Utah (40), DC (17), RI (15), NJ(50), PR(22), VI(7), GU(4), AS (4), NMI(4), MD(31), DE(17), CT(25), HI(9), CA(124), NY(74)
That’s another 443 delegates for Romney, puts him at 848
I also have Romney picking up the following delegates in a two-man race in the favorable Anti-Romney states:
AR(4), MO(12), WV(9), IN(6), MS(5), MT(7), KY(4), NC(16), LA(3), KS(5), NE(9), SD(6), WI(6), TX(38)
That’s another 130 delegates for Romney. Puts him at 978 delegates with all contests complete.
Now assuming that Santorum and Gingrich can combine at some point, they could have 266 Delegates.
Favorable Anti-Romney States:
AR(29), MO(33), WV(21), AL(47), IN(22), MS(33), MT(11), KY(35), NC(31), LA (40), KS(35), NE(22), SD(19), WI(36), TX(100)
That’s 514 delegates, bringing the sole person up to 780.
They would also get delegates in some of the Romney States:
RI(3), PR(1), GU(2), AS(2), NMI(2), MD(6), HI(7), CA(45), NY(19)
This is another 87 delegates, bringing the sole Anti-Romney up to 867 delegates.
There’s 4 contests not sure yet how they base out because the delegate allocation rules aren’t clear. Best guess is:
PA (41 to Santorum) (28 to Romney)
IL (44 to Romney) (24 to Santorum)
WY (13 to Romney) (13 to Santorum)
OR (9 to Romney) (13 to Santorum)
NM (8 to Romney) (9 to Santorum)
This puts Romney at about 1,080 delegates
This puts Santorum at about 967 delegates
Ron Paul has about 139 delegates
About 100 Uncommitted Superdelegates
This is still not great for Santorum, but Romney would either have to win 60% of the uncommitted Superdelegates or make a deal with Ron Paul.
Still, with all 3 in the race, Mitt’s delegate numbers will be higher in the South. If that’s the case, he could very well win before the convention.
How hard and fast a science is all this? This was posted earlier today, and it seemed to say that Newt wasn’t in too bad shape... So is all this subject to interpretation and wishful thinking or is there some hard undeniable math, which we should be facing, whatever the reality is?
It’s all going to be okay. Newt will be fine, so will we. sometimes you just have to get all the frustration and uncertainty out of your system, but it will be okay. I promise.
PRIMARY: Popular Vote Soft Pledged - Soft Unpledged Soft Total Hard Total
Rom: .3,242,740, 39.20% (314)17.36% (72)15.09% (386)16.89% .(302)13.21%
Santo: 2,087,454, 25.23%/(92) 5.09%/(67)14.05%/(159) 6.96%/(79)3.46%
Ging: 1,818,548, 21.98% /107)5.91%/(13) 2.73%/(120)5.25%/(96)4.20%
Paul: .,927,348, 11.21% ... (35)1.93%.......(38)7.97%......(73)3.19% ..(16)0.70%
Gingrich Senior Advisor Randy Evans Explains Delegate Math
If it is a contested covention... which Rove says it would be—Rove says “odds are greater that there’s life on Pluto than that the GOP has a brokered convention”. I don’t like Rove but he is pretty good at this.
Newt— I don’t believe Newt would back Ron Paul, I KNOW he wouldn’t back Romney after Iowa and Fl—Newt would probably back Santorum.
Ron Paul— would back Romney (I believe)—if Rand was VP or secured a REALLY good position for Rand. Paul is going to be retiring anyhow.
Santorum— would back Romney, he did before and he thinks it is the fault of Gingrich that he isn’t going to win. He would also jump at the VP slot. Romney will need to offer up something real good for Rand, if Santorum gets VP.
Romney— won’t back anyone. He has waited for this, it was supposed to be his and he has paid for it by crikey! And he will probably have the most delegates, so he will run the show.
To me it looks like Romney gets it even with a contested convention.
Make phone calls for Newt....
www.newt.org/donate - Newt has a million dollar bomb going on now!
IT’S NOW OR NEVER.
Santorum has always tried to get pro-abortion presidents into the White House, at least in 1996 and 2008, Santorum will rejoin the Romney camp in a heart beat.
We still have Newt's supporters and Palin could get in to stop Mitty. We have to help Newt win those upcoming states. People are not happy with liberal Romneycare Mitt; taking him into the fall election doesn't help us. If the media gets rid of Newt, they will attack Rick full force/then it's over. We have to save Newt so he can gain more delegates. Rick cannot see he is being used to keep Newt back in the pack. Rove has pulled off a genuis move to stop Newt. We have to stay with Newt.
I posted this as another thread. But my thinking is that Romney is losing a portion of his favorables right now, and if he isn’t at this forum, and his supporters get a look at Newt and Santorum, but mostly conservative principles and ideas, it may move them...
“The Alabama Republican Party is planning to host a televised event showcasing the GOP presidential field on the eve of next week’s primary, a top state GOP official tells me.
Both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum have committed to appear at an evening forum, Alabama GOP executive director T.J. Maloney said. The event is not a debate the plan isn’t to grill the candidates or to force them to engage each other. But it promises to give plenty of free-media coverage to the participants.
“This is an opportunity for the candidates who are attending to give their campaign pitch, their spiel, in front of a live Alabama audience,” Maloney said. “We believe it will be covered on just about every TV camera in the state.””
Please call, and ask others, too, and request this forum to be carried nationally and live.
It would be great if this were on C-Span or CNN. I didn’t post Fox News because they probably wouldn’t consider carrying it unless Willard was attending.
C-SPAN Viewer Services/Archives: 877-662-7726
You can call CNN at 404-827-1500 option 2,2,2 and leave a message to please air this forum. also at www.cnn.com under “contact us” at bottom of the screen you can email a request.
“Gingrich plus Santorum will stil likely win a clear majority of the delegates. So on a second ballot, the candidate with less delegates recommends that his delegates support the other, and thus either Gingrich or Santorum prevail over Romney.”
I can see Santorum throwing in with Romney, not Newt. Santorum’s been angling for a VP slot all along. Santorum endorsed Romney in 2008. Santorum stabbed Newt in the back back when Newt was Speaker. All you Santourm supporters who hate Romney are being fooled.
leftist media. The conservatives should take control to set up their own debates.
It’s the same as these ridiculous open primaries.
Do we really believe the people crossing over have our best interests at heart?