Posted on 03/07/2012 7:50:03 PM PST by georgiagirl_pam
R- 404 S- 161 G- 105 P- 61
OMG, this is a nightmare. PLEASE GOD, TELL ME HOW I AM WRONG!
Go to the RCP delegate count page. I am using their numbers, they may be off a little but not much. Print it off. Add up the number of total delegates left (bound and unbound, winner take all and proportional.) You will get 1475. It takes 1144 to win. So right now:
Romney needs 740 Santorum needs 983 Gingrich needs 1039 Paul needs 1414
That means:
Romney needs to win 50% of the delegates left to clinch.
Santorum needs to win (get this!!) 66.66% of the delegates left to clinch
Gingrich needs to win 70% of the delegates left to clinch.
Now, go through the list, be intellectually honest with yourself, and pull out the delegates that you know Romney will win, no matter who and how many candidates are still in or out.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
This is where you are wrong. Have you gone through every state’s rules for how it allocates it’s delegates.
Example
MD is WTA by CD + 10 delegates to the State winner. While Santorum won’t win the state, as most MD Freepers would agree he would have a good shot to win the 1st (Andy Harris, Eastern Shore, Harford, Cecil) and 6th (Bartlett, Frederick and West). That’s only 6 delegates, but if Newt stays in, what happened in MI, OH, AK, MA, OK, etc, would happen in MD and Romney could win those 6 delegates in those 2 CD’s by splitting the Anti-Romney vote.
NJ is WTA, doesn’t matter, neither has a chance there.
In NY, it is also WTA by CD similar to MD. Santorum would be concentrating on PA, but there’s about 6 CD’s here he could win off of, and while that’s only 18 delegates, it’s still 18 delegates Romney gets denied, whereas Newt might take enough support in those CD’s to once again split the Anti-Romney and allow Romney all 95 delegates.
Then there’s California. There’s may 15 CD’s I’d call conservative, if there even is that many for 45 delegates. Again, it’s about keeping Romney from getting all 172. Huckabee took enough of the conservative vote in CA in 2008 that Romney was unable to win in all but just 5 CD’s, with McCain winning the other 49.
Actually, I have added all the Romney favorable states. Start with 405.
Utah (40), DC (17), RI (15), NJ(50), PR(22), VI(7), GU(4), AS (4), NMI(4), MD(31), DE(17), CT(25), HI(9), CA(124), NY(74)
That’s another 443 delegates for Romney, puts him at 848
I also have Romney picking up the following delegates in a two-man race in the favorable Anti-Romney states:
AR(4), MO(12), WV(9), IN(6), MS(5), MT(7), KY(4), NC(16), LA(3), KS(5), NE(9), SD(6), WI(6), TX(38)
That’s another 130 delegates for Romney. Puts him at 978 delegates with all contests complete.
Now assuming that Santorum and Gingrich can combine at some point, they could have 266 Delegates.
Favorable Anti-Romney States:
AR(29), MO(33), WV(21), AL(47), IN(22), MS(33), MT(11), KY(35), NC(31), LA (40), KS(35), NE(22), SD(19), WI(36), TX(100)
That’s 514 delegates, bringing the sole person up to 780.
They would also get delegates in some of the Romney States:
RI(3), PR(1), GU(2), AS(2), NMI(2), MD(6), HI(7), CA(45), NY(19)
This is another 87 delegates, bringing the sole Anti-Romney up to 867 delegates.
There’s 4 contests not sure yet how they base out because the delegate allocation rules aren’t clear. Best guess is:
PA (41 to Santorum) (28 to Romney)
IL (44 to Romney) (24 to Santorum)
WY (13 to Romney) (13 to Santorum)
OR (9 to Romney) (13 to Santorum)
NM (8 to Romney) (9 to Santorum)
This puts Romney at about 1,080 delegates
This puts Santorum at about 967 delegates
Ron Paul has about 139 delegates
About 100 Uncommitted Superdelegates
Total: 2286
This is still not great for Santorum, but Romney would either have to win 60% of the uncommitted Superdelegates or make a deal with Ron Paul.
Still, with all 3 in the race, Mitt’s delegate numbers will be higher in the South. If that’s the case, he could very well win before the convention.
How hard and fast a science is all this? This was posted earlier today, and it seemed to say that Newt wasn’t in too bad shape... So is all this subject to interpretation and wishful thinking or is there some hard undeniable math, which we should be facing, whatever the reality is?
It’s all going to be okay. Newt will be fine, so will we. sometimes you just have to get all the frustration and uncertainty out of your system, but it will be okay. I promise.
PRIMARY: Popular Vote — Soft Pledged - Soft Unpledged – Soft Total – Hard Total
Rom: ….3,242,740, 39.20% …(314)17.36% …(72)15.09% …(386)16.89% ….(302)13.21%
Santo: 2,087,454, 25.23%/(92) 5.09%/(67)14.05%/(159) 6.96%/(79)3.46%
Ging: 1,818,548, 21.98% /107)5.91%/(13) 2.73%/(120)5.25%/(96)4.20%
Paul: ……….,927,348, 11.21% ...…(35)1.93%.......(38)7.97%......(73)3.19% …..(16)0.70%
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R
*******
Gingrich Senior Advisor Randy Evans Explains Delegate Math
If it is a contested covention... which Rove says it would be—Rove says “odds are greater that there’s life on Pluto than that the GOP has a brokered convention”. I don’t like Rove but he is pretty good at this.
A contested—
Newt— I don’t believe Newt would back Ron Paul, I KNOW he wouldn’t back Romney after Iowa and Fl—Newt would probably back Santorum.
Ron Paul— would back Romney (I believe)—if Rand was VP or secured a REALLY good position for Rand. Paul is going to be retiring anyhow.
Santorum— would back Romney, he did before and he thinks it is the fault of Gingrich that he isn’t going to win. He would also jump at the VP slot. Romney will need to offer up something real good for Rand, if Santorum gets VP.
Romney— won’t back anyone. He has waited for this, it was supposed to be his and he has paid for it by crikey! And he will probably have the most delegates, so he will run the show.
To me it looks like Romney gets it even with a contested convention.
Make phone calls for Newt....
www.newtsnetwork.com
www.newt.org/donate - Newt has a million dollar bomb going on now!
IT’S NOW OR NEVER.
Santorum has always tried to get pro-abortion presidents into the White House, at least in 1996 and 2008, Santorum will rejoin the Romney camp in a heart beat.
We still have Newt's supporters and Palin could get in to stop Mitty. We have to help Newt win those upcoming states. People are not happy with liberal Romneycare Mitt; taking him into the fall election doesn't help us. If the media gets rid of Newt, they will attack Rick full force/then it's over. We have to save Newt so he can gain more delegates. Rick cannot see he is being used to keep Newt back in the pack. Rove has pulled off a genuis move to stop Newt. We have to stay with Newt.
I posted this as another thread. But my thinking is that Romney is losing a portion of his favorables right now, and if he isn’t at this forum, and his supporters get a look at Newt and Santorum, but mostly conservative principles and ideas, it may move them...
“The Alabama Republican Party is planning to host a televised event showcasing the GOP presidential field on the eve of next week’s primary, a top state GOP official tells me.
Both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum have committed to appear at an evening forum, Alabama GOP executive director T.J. Maloney said. The event is not a debate — the plan isn’t to grill the candidates or to force them to engage each other. But it promises to give plenty of free-media coverage to the participants.
“This is an opportunity for the candidates who are attending to give their campaign pitch, their spiel, in front of a live Alabama audience,” Maloney said. “We believe it will be covered on just about every TV camera in the state.””
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/03/alabama-gop-plans-monday-forum-116738.html
***
Please call, and ask others, too, and request this forum to be carried nationally and live.
It would be great if this were on C-Span or CNN. I didn’t post Fox News because they probably wouldn’t consider carrying it unless Willard was attending.
C-SPAN Viewer Services/Archives: 877-662-7726
You can call CNN at 404-827-1500… option 2,2,2 and leave a message to please air this forum. also at www.cnn.com under “contact us” at bottom of the screen you can email a request.
“Gingrich plus Santorum will stil likely win a clear majority of the delegates. So on a second ballot, the candidate with less delegates recommends that his delegates support the other, and thus either Gingrich or Santorum prevail over Romney.”
I can see Santorum throwing in with Romney, not Newt. Santorum’s been angling for a VP slot all along. Santorum endorsed Romney in 2008. Santorum stabbed Newt in the back back when Newt was Speaker. All you Santourm supporters who hate Romney are being fooled.
Go Newt!
leftist media. The conservatives should take control to set up their own debates.
It’s the same as these ridiculous open primaries.
Do we really believe the people crossing over have our best interests at heart?
->I can see Santorum throwing in with Romney, not Newt. Santorum’s been angling for a VP slot all along. Santorum endorsed Romney in 2008. Santorum stabbed Newt in the back back when Newt was Speaker. All you Santourm supporters who hate Romney are being fooled.
Amen. My 80 yr old Aunt said the very same thing today.
I think what's been going on with Rush the past few days should be a cautionary tale for everybody. Rush's language, I felt, was out of line, but look at the steamroller that was in place so quickly, the media, advertisers, women's groups, political groups, blogosphere, networks, and on and on. they will do the same to santorum with his social stands. the line will be blurred, and truth won't even enter into to it, and chances are Santorum will give them all the rope they need.
Mark Levin, who supports Santorum, described Newt on MTP on sunday as Newt the cat playing with David Gregory the ball of yarn... that is what it is going to take.
It is so sad to see what is happening. The left wing blogs are in full commitment to get the dems out to vote for Santorum. What does it say.. They would be fearful to go up against Newt, Palin, true conservatives. Rick will be crushed by the media. They cannot do it now/no chance for Newt to rise/they almost have shut Newt down. Rick's people are helping Romney but you cannot reach them to see otherwise. They think God is wanting Rick. They are wanting Rick.
Don’t look at me. I’ve been posting since before the Michigan primary that the “Reagan Democrats” that were going to cross over for Rick were being organized by Democrat strategist Joe DiSano, and liberal radio talk host Tony Trupiano. Nobody would listen.
They were interviewing the “Reagan Democrats” that voted for Rick on local news here. They were saying things like “I wanted to puke voting for Santorum”, “Santorum is so extreme I could barely vote for him” and “I hope Obama crushes Santorum in the fall”.
These people are still insisting that the voters were indeed “Reagan Democrats”. In fact some guy on here today called me a moron for telling him the same story I just told you.
So sad.
OMG. You are a piece of work. Even I can see that and that’s saying something lol.
LMAO...the voters aren’t voting for Newt or Santorum in record numbers. But they are voting more for Santorum than Newt so far.
They aren’t fearful going up against Palin either. A true conservative?
Crushed by the media? Any “R” is going to be crushed by the media. We can’t blame the media on this one.
McCain, Romney, Huckabee in 2008...really? Now, Newt, Romney, Santorum in 2012 and we wonder why the voters aren’t thrilled?
Santorum’s people are helping Romney...but Newt’s aren’t? lmao. And Palin? GMAFB.
“They think God is wanting Rick” really? Heh, you certainly showed where you stand and what you’re pushing.
Maybe "they" think that because Sanctimonium told his followers at a Colorado rally, "God called me to do this."
Where do you stand and what are you pushing? I'm pushing facts...
Is there any such thing as an informed, unignorant, nonhateful Santorum supporter? Anywhere?
Why should newtie get out. no way!
Why should newtie get out. no way!
Santorum AND Newtie are going all the way. I’m still laying a bet that Newtie will get nomination. Read all the online comments - so many people are for Newtie. I’m through with the republican party if they try to steal our candidate.
Tonight on BOR, Rove said that he thought there was a good chance that Rick would win NY, and win slightly in CA. I about feel out of my chair.....
Serious?? Karl Mittenlover Rove? Whoa, did he mean it or was it Romney strategizing?
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