Skip to comments.Romney's Fuzzy Math for a Fuzzy Campaign
Posted on 03/08/2012 10:55:22 PM PST by Christie at the beach
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This past week, one campaign strategist with ties to the Romney campaign laid out Mitt’s problem to me. A back of the envelope count shows the likely number of delegates Romney will have by April 1, due to the proportion distribution of candidates up to that point.
After April 1, a winner-takes-all system kicks in. My source says that if Romney wins every single primary after April 1, his tally goes up to about 1,200 delegates, making him the winner.
“So if Romney stumbles and loses one or more primaries, he likely falls short of the 1,144,” the source said.
As we can see, there is a good likelihood Romney will lose one or more primaries after April 1. If either Santorum or Gingrich are still in the race by May, Romney will undoubtedly lose the delegate-rich state of Texas.
To date, Romney’s performance has been weak. Take for example, his Super Tuesday results. He narrowly won Ohio after outspending Rick Santorum by 12-to-1.
Overall, Romney has spent over $60 million, largely in negative attack ads against Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, and what does he have to show for it? Not much.
He lost Iowa.
He lost South Carolina.
He lost Missouri and Minnesota.
So far he’s lost almost every Southern state. On Tuesday we saw landslides for Gingrich in Georgia and Santorum in Tennessee. And states that should be “easy” Mitt wins, like his home state of Michigan, he only squeaked by after spending millions in attack ads there.
The state he’s won handily, he did so by running brutally negative ads against his fellow Republicans.
Ed Rollins, the genius behind Reagan’s brilliant 1984 re-election, said on Fox News the overall voting trends for Romney are not good.
Rollins observes that Romney has done really well in blue-state primaries. But Republicans won’t win these states this November. Rollins adds that Romney loses badly in many red states ones he must carry in November.
So Romney has almost all the money, all the big endorsements from the Washington and New York insiders, and a well-oiled campaign machine, and yet he’s being beaten by Rick Santorum who has a clipboard and whistle, and by Newt Gingrich who has a podium.
What’s the message here? A supermajority of the Republican party about 65 percent at this moment either don’t want Mitt Romney or are not comfortable with him as their nominee.
The leaders who make up the conservative movement across the nation consistently tell me the same thing: Mitt talks a conservative game, but he has yet to walk it.
The truth is that his policy advisers and campaign staff are filled with moderates who are out of step with the base of the Republican Party.
One Romney adviser told The Wall Street Journal that as president he would consider doing away with “carried interest” which drives investment and entrepreneurship in the country. The Journal said Romney was embarrassed by the fact he pays so little tax himself.
Another Romney aide, a healthcare adviser, has stated a Romney administration will keep key parts of Obamacare.
On the campaign trail, the candidate tells a different story, one that is consistently Reaganesque and vehemently opposed to programs like Obamacare.
But the Reagan picture Romney paints isn’t backed up with a cast of conservative characters around him that would demonstrate his intent.
“People are policy” and conservatives have needed that reassurance from Romney for good reason. Romney has flip-flopped on so many key issues so often, he needs not a new Reagan speech but a Reagan team.
For those who don’t like to click on links/Full read.
“Ed Rollins tells News Max Romany can’t win in Nov.”
Which is precisely why he’s the Dems and the lame-stream media’s favorite GOP candidate.
Certainly conservative opinions are not on the tip of his tongue. He is always bending his ear to an aid to know what answer to give. Trying to game the decision.
I wonder what Romney’s use of fuzzy math would mean for the budget should he defy all logic and actually become POTUS?
We really need to get behind one candidate so at the convention that person has a good chance to knock off Romney. Romney is already weak. In a few more months, he will be worse to where the GOP cannot save him, I am hoping. ( Though, you know they will still want him as the nominee- I think we have not seen anything yet)
How in hell can a conservative vote for this guy and think he wont screw us?He will and I will not be played.
Did you see the Shelby start the Senate Republican backslide yesterday. I’m paraphrasing, but it was something like “it would be too hard”.
Who are the people voting for him- I suspect, liberal Republicans- Bush republicans-democrats-liberals-the liberals who are causing chaos-I am in several Tea Party groups and 2 conservative groups. We don’t have anyone supporting him just because of Romneycare/socialized medicine-the VERY thing President Reagan warned us about. Romney didn’t even like Reagan. He cannot be our nominee.
No, I didn’t -what happened?
Socialized medicine is the tipping point. Most government programs involve segments of the population whereas it affects everyone. Two of the most dangerous threats to freedom are public schools and socialized medicine (along with the progressive income tax).
Amen. Great summary. Just hoping enough people wake up.
Most of the conservatives and independents know
what is coming. The uniformed may hand us Romney/then Obama. You know, I believe it is going to take a strong warrior to withstand Obama's regime. I am praying it's Newt and if so, God gives him a guidance of steel and protection.
I didn’t see, do you have a link? Thanks in advance...
Pooor Mittens is getting jammed. See you Myth at the August Convention when you lose it all.
I just searched through my comments to find the thread, and couldn’t find it. Maybe it got pulled? I found it a bit of a difficult read, but it looked like the beginning of one of the Republican retreats I’ve been seeing for twenty years. Basically Richard Shelby said it would be difficult to repeal Obamacare because funding for other health care programs is tied into it. Something to that effect. I would say though that Shelby has been pretty vocal opposing Obamacare.
sorry I should have posted to Irenic as well.
Wow, he finally gets something right.
Thanks so much for the update.
The main reason is we won’t have the votes in the Senate to get rid of it. We need 60 votes, isn’t going to happen. It is a done deal. Obamacare is forever, doesn’t matter who the POTUS is.
Your killing my buzz man.
Romney is going to lose Alabama, Kansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Kentucky,Texas, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia with the other states he already has in the loss column. Just wow.
Take away line from the article.
Beyond the states that Romney has won (which he will not win in the general election), the great preponderance of counties he has won fall into the same category -- unwinnable in November. Surely the Republican establishment is looking at the same maps as Ed Rollins.
Personally, I pledged right here at FR - - twice - - that I WILL NEVER vote for Romney or may God strike me dead. (shrug) So that's that.
Romney simply cannot be trusted.
This is an old cartoon, so don't forget the "Pro-Communist Health Care" and "Anti-Communist Health Care" podiums. Oh! And the "Pro-Government Union" and "Anti-Government Union", and the "Pro-Global Warming" and "Anti-Global Warming" podiums, too:
Tuesday night I watched the Fox News coverage of the Ohio "too close to call" primary and was stunned at how the red-purple county-by-county map showed Romney winning in and around the counties dominated by the big, concentrated Democrat parasite nests ("cities"), Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati, while Santorum won all the rest. It looked just like a typical blue-red county-by-county presidential race map, with the rat winning all the same kind of counties Romney won.
You noticed, too.
Davidson County (Nashville) and Shelby (Memphis) in Tennessee.
Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Franklin (Columbus) Counties in Ohio.
Romney wins where Republicans lose. And loses where Republicans win.
Romney - Santorum, 2012
Obama - McCain, 2008
If Rom gets the nomination, and if you then don’t vote fo him, you’ve already been played.
Ed Rollins has been on CNN kissing liberal butt for so long, it’s ridiculous.
The GOP nominee will win the red states. It’s the tossups that need to be in play.
Does anyone actually believe that if Romney got over 1,000 votes, but fell short of 1,144, the delegates at the convention (also known as the “Republican Establishment”) would award the nomination to Ricky or Newt, or even some as yet unnamed (and unvetted) dark horse? I don’t like the SOB (Mitt) either, but if he gets to 1,000 before the convention, it’s time for the other candidates to make their platform demands, and step aside.
He didn't try to fire me, or tell me how much he hates me.
He needs to stick to his DNC talking points memo.
What do yo mean still time?
He IS a dem running against Mr 0b0t0. Not very fast, or out to win mind you. He is a dem. He wants to run against Stinky.
BOTH SANTORUM AND NEWT HAVE TO STAY IN THE RACE TO SIPHON VOTES AND DELEGATES AWAY FROM ROMNEY BY GIVING REPUBLICAN VOTERS MORE ANTI-ROMNEY CHOICES TO VOTE FOR. SOME MIGHT LIKE SANTORUM BUT NOT NEWT AND VICE VERSA.
THE COMMON OBJECTIVE IS TO DENY PRO-ABORTION, PRO-HOMOSEXUAL, PRO-FEDERAL-CONTROL HEALTHCARE CANDIDATE FROM GETTING NOMINATED.
SEAN HANNITY APPEARS TO FAVOR ROMNEY AND IT COMES AS NO SURPRISE. RADIO STATIONS HE IS ON OWNED BY ROMNEY.
Is this the link?
I will pray for your caps lock key.
Neither Romney, Santorum or Gingrich can win in November.
I hope the convention delegates appreciate this and opt for a fresh face in November!
So voting for the loser to the last loser is a winning proposition? Thats rich.
President Obama offered his likely Republican opponent Mitt Romney good luck for Super Tuesday.
Asked at a news conference if hed like to respond to Romneys comments calling Obama the most feckless president since Carter, Obama said: Good luck tonight.
After the quip got laughs from the press gallery, Obama smiled and said, No, really. Really.
THE _RESIDENT GETS IT!!!! the Republican establishment are too stupid to get it.
I am in total agreement.
I dont see it that way.I dont vote for liberals of either party.Moderates dont win.
Then I've been thinking I'm going to have to eat my words.
I'm hoping that I don't have to eat my words.
It should be painfully obvious that Romney can’t win in November. He has been running for POTUS for the last 8 years and has spent millions in campaign organizations in key states like Iowa, yet Santorum comes from no place to take Iowa, nearly wins in Romney’s home state of Michigan. Even in the states Romney carried, his wins were largely because the other candidates spent little time or money there. Romney cannot close the deal with rank and file Republicans how the heck can he sell independents and disaffected Democrats in November?
Newt’s brilliant strategy: focus in the south to win enough delegates to deny Romney nomination, then win at the borkered convention where his voice can be heard without any negative ads and MSM smear.
HOw many delegates did Romney get in Virginia?
There was only him and Ron Paul on the ballot & the statewide Virginia turnout was only about 5%......The lowest ever known there.
Seems to me, he better not be crowing too loud about winning Virginia!!!!
Overall, Romney has spent over $60 million, largely in negative attack ads “””
I think he has surpassed the $60 million mark. He supposedly spent $25 million in Florida alone——and got 50 delegates. That is about 1 HALF MILLION per delegate.
IF the $25 million Florida number is correct, I think he is well above $60 million by now.
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