Skip to comments.Romney's Fuzzy Math for a Fuzzy Campaign
Posted on 03/08/2012 10:55:22 PM PST by Christie at the beach
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This past week, one campaign strategist with ties to the Romney campaign laid out Mitt’s problem to me. A back of the envelope count shows the likely number of delegates Romney will have by April 1, due to the proportion distribution of candidates up to that point.
After April 1, a winner-takes-all system kicks in. My source says that if Romney wins every single primary after April 1, his tally goes up to about 1,200 delegates, making him the winner.
“So if Romney stumbles and loses one or more primaries, he likely falls short of the 1,144,” the source said.
As we can see, there is a good likelihood Romney will lose one or more primaries after April 1. If either Santorum or Gingrich are still in the race by May, Romney will undoubtedly lose the delegate-rich state of Texas.
To date, Romney’s performance has been weak. Take for example, his Super Tuesday results. He narrowly won Ohio after outspending Rick Santorum by 12-to-1.
Overall, Romney has spent over $60 million, largely in negative attack ads against Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, and what does he have to show for it? Not much.
He lost Iowa.
He lost South Carolina.
He lost Missouri and Minnesota.
So far he’s lost almost every Southern state. On Tuesday we saw landslides for Gingrich in Georgia and Santorum in Tennessee. And states that should be “easy” Mitt wins, like his home state of Michigan, he only squeaked by after spending millions in attack ads there.
The state he’s won handily, he did so by running brutally negative ads against his fellow Republicans.
Ed Rollins, the genius behind Reagan’s brilliant 1984 re-election, said on Fox News the overall voting trends for Romney are not good.
Rollins observes that Romney has done really well in blue-state primaries. But Republicans won’t win these states this November. Rollins adds that Romney loses badly in many red states ones he must carry in November.
So Romney has almost all the money, all the big endorsements from the Washington and New York insiders, and a well-oiled campaign machine, and yet he’s being beaten by Rick Santorum who has a clipboard and whistle, and by Newt Gingrich who has a podium.
What’s the message here? A supermajority of the Republican party about 65 percent at this moment either don’t want Mitt Romney or are not comfortable with him as their nominee.
The leaders who make up the conservative movement across the nation consistently tell me the same thing: Mitt talks a conservative game, but he has yet to walk it.
The truth is that his policy advisers and campaign staff are filled with moderates who are out of step with the base of the Republican Party.
One Romney adviser told The Wall Street Journal that as president he would consider doing away with “carried interest” which drives investment and entrepreneurship in the country. The Journal said Romney was embarrassed by the fact he pays so little tax himself.
Another Romney aide, a healthcare adviser, has stated a Romney administration will keep key parts of Obamacare.
On the campaign trail, the candidate tells a different story, one that is consistently Reaganesque and vehemently opposed to programs like Obamacare.
But the Reagan picture Romney paints isn’t backed up with a cast of conservative characters around him that would demonstrate his intent.
“People are policy” and conservatives have needed that reassurance from Romney for good reason. Romney has flip-flopped on so many key issues so often, he needs not a new Reagan speech but a Reagan team.
For those who don’t like to click on links/Full read.
“Ed Rollins tells News Max Romany can’t win in Nov.”
Which is precisely why he’s the Dems and the lame-stream media’s favorite GOP candidate.
Certainly conservative opinions are not on the tip of his tongue. He is always bending his ear to an aid to know what answer to give. Trying to game the decision.
I wonder what Romney’s use of fuzzy math would mean for the budget should he defy all logic and actually become POTUS?
We really need to get behind one candidate so at the convention that person has a good chance to knock off Romney. Romney is already weak. In a few more months, he will be worse to where the GOP cannot save him, I am hoping. ( Though, you know they will still want him as the nominee- I think we have not seen anything yet)
How in hell can a conservative vote for this guy and think he wont screw us?He will and I will not be played.
Did you see the Shelby start the Senate Republican backslide yesterday. I’m paraphrasing, but it was something like “it would be too hard”.
Who are the people voting for him- I suspect, liberal Republicans- Bush republicans-democrats-liberals-the liberals who are causing chaos-I am in several Tea Party groups and 2 conservative groups. We don’t have anyone supporting him just because of Romneycare/socialized medicine-the VERY thing President Reagan warned us about. Romney didn’t even like Reagan. He cannot be our nominee.
No, I didn’t -what happened?
Socialized medicine is the tipping point. Most government programs involve segments of the population whereas it affects everyone. Two of the most dangerous threats to freedom are public schools and socialized medicine (along with the progressive income tax).
Amen. Great summary. Just hoping enough people wake up.
Most of the conservatives and independents know
what is coming. The uniformed may hand us Romney/then Obama. You know, I believe it is going to take a strong warrior to withstand Obama's regime. I am praying it's Newt and if so, God gives him a guidance of steel and protection.
I didn’t see, do you have a link? Thanks in advance...
Pooor Mittens is getting jammed. See you Myth at the August Convention when you lose it all.
I just searched through my comments to find the thread, and couldn’t find it. Maybe it got pulled? I found it a bit of a difficult read, but it looked like the beginning of one of the Republican retreats I’ve been seeing for twenty years. Basically Richard Shelby said it would be difficult to repeal Obamacare because funding for other health care programs is tied into it. Something to that effect. I would say though that Shelby has been pretty vocal opposing Obamacare.
sorry I should have posted to Irenic as well.
Wow, he finally gets something right.
Thanks so much for the update.
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