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2012 Alabama Republican Primary: Gingrich 30%, Santorum 29%, Romney 28%, Paul 7%
Rassmussen Reports ^ | March 9, 2012 | Scott Rassmussen

Posted on 03/09/2012 8:57:37 AM PST by unspun

Alabama Republicans are up to bat next, and right now it’s a near three-way tie going into next Tuesday’s primary.

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Alabama finds Newt Gingrich barely ahead with 30% support to 29% for Rick Santorum and 28% for Mitt Romney. Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with seven percent (7%) of the vote. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Alabama survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections; US: Alabama; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: gingrich; newt; newt4romney; newtgingrich

1 posted on 03/09/2012 8:57:47 AM PST by unspun
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To: unspun

Makes me wonder how the tally would be like in Alabama had it merely been :

Gingrich, Romney, Paul

or

Santorum, Romney , Paul

One thing is certain — ROMNEY ISN’T SELLING WELL IN THE SOUTH.


2 posted on 03/09/2012 8:59:40 AM PST by SeekAndFind (question)
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To: unspun

Volunteer here: http://www.newt.org

Keep in touch here (as well as FR): http://newtsnetwork.com


3 posted on 03/09/2012 9:02:08 AM PST by unspun (It's the Sovereignty, Stu... | We are Gulag Bound)
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To: unspun

Newt tops the polls in Alabama and in Mississippi.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2856853/posts


4 posted on 03/09/2012 9:11:22 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: unspun

Work for Gingrich! ~ http://newtsnetwork.com/

He needs to withstand the news of Santorum winning in Kansas, Saturday.

One candidate wants to solve our problems and rescue American Sovereignty.

Another candidate seems entitled.

A third seems to want to enact Vatican dicta in America.


5 posted on 03/09/2012 9:11:22 AM PST by unspun (It's the Sovereignty, Stu... | We are Gulag Bound)
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To: All
Delegate Totals

Romney------- 340
Gingrich-------107
Santorum--------95
Paul--------------22

Hard Totals/ Soft Totals Explained.

6 posted on 03/09/2012 9:17:42 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

http://electad.com/videos/newt-gingrich-ad-senator-santorum-in-his-own-words/


7 posted on 03/09/2012 9:33:57 AM PST by A. Morgan (Ayn Rand: "You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality.")
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To: unspun

We will go to Brokered convention and Newt does not have to worry about Romney’s dirty untrue ads, no MSM spin machine, no elites dirty tricks, only patriotism and Tea party on display with Nwet delivering thundering speech and sound solutions!!

Exciting! Thank you the southerners for coming to rescue the nation!


8 posted on 03/09/2012 9:36:32 AM PST by God-fear-republican
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To: unspun

GO NEWT GO!


9 posted on 03/09/2012 9:36:51 AM PST by Parley Baer
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To: SeekAndFind

The Newtbots are idiots and obviously haven’t studied delegate distribution.

Given the current RAS poll, Romney will get out of AL with 12-13 delegates. Had this been a two-man race, Romney might get 2-3 delegates.

Same thing in MS.

Proportional allocation will destroy the Anti-Romneys until they combine.

Personally, the Newt people have been so vicious here, it would be just dessert for Santorum to return the favor on Newt by costing him AL and MS just like Newt cost Santorum OH, MI, WA, AK, and AZ.

Newt Gingrich has 0% to win the nomination. If it is not Santorum, it will be Romney. Those of you with too much pride to admit the obvious, I hope that pride is enough for you to handle the pain pill the Government Agent will hand you courtesy of Obamacare.


10 posted on 03/09/2012 9:38:38 AM PST by parksstp (I pick RIck! (If he's good enough for Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, he's good enough for me))
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To: parksstp

I rather go with 5% Newt than 51% Santorum because Santorum cannot go up against Romney, not alone Obama and Chicago machine.

At brokered convention, everything is possible. Without brokered convention, we are doomed.

Santorum cannot give inspiring speech and offer practical solution as Newt does. Working in oil-gas drilling business myself, $2.50/gal gas is under-estimated.

Do you think Santorum can beat Romney and the elites alone by himself? Impossible.


11 posted on 03/09/2012 9:46:33 AM PST by God-fear-republican
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To: parksstp

Someone will run out of money very soon and it will not be Newt Gingrich.


12 posted on 03/09/2012 10:09:43 AM PST by unspun (It's the Sovereignty, Stu... | We are Gulag Bound)
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To: unspun; napscoordinator; CharlesWayneCT; writer33; Lazlo in PA; Antoninus; cripplecreek
5 posted on Friday, March 09, 2012 11:11:22 AM by unspun: “A third seems to want to enact Vatican dicta in America.”

Please cite an example.

I don't see Rick Santorum trying to “enact Vactican dicta” on anything other than abortion. On that issue, I trust you agree with Santorum. Gingrich agrees with “Vatican dicta” on being pro-life, so does Ron Paul, and even Mitt Romney claims to agree (though I don't trust him).

Perhaps you mean contraception? Santorum doesn't want to make contraception illegal; at most, he wants to persuade other people it's a bad idea. What he does with his wife in his own bedroom is his own business and if he wants a large family, it's not my business to tell him otherwise.

As an evangelical Protestant, if I thought Rick Santorum was trying to “enact Vatican dicta” on things other than issues on which most conservative Christians agree, I would have a huge problem with Santorum.

What Santorum does in his own personal life with “Vatican dicta” is his own business and I have no problem with him being faithful to the dictates of his church so long as he doesn't try to legally enact them on everyone else.

13 posted on 03/09/2012 10:13:57 AM PST by darrellmaurina
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To: unspun
Obviously Newt should drop out immediately. /s

This is encouraging news for Newt's campaign. I hope he can maintain the lead in MS and rack up a victory or two next Tuesday.

I think the total strategy is one of "keep away," of siphoning delegates away from Romney. Neither Newt or Santorum should get out. I believe the time where that would've been most effective to outright beat Romney is over.

Win or lose, Newt is by far the most important voice in this race and should stay until the bitter end. As Palin said the competition steel-again-steel has improved all the candidates.

While clear where his and Fox's loyalties are, Hannity said it's made Romney a better candidate. I think that's undeniable and true for the others as well.

14 posted on 03/09/2012 10:16:29 AM PST by newzjunkey (Santorum: 18-point loss, voted for Sotomayor, proposed $550M on top of $900M Amtrak budget...)
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To: unspun

Yeah, huge anti-Romney vote all in all.


15 posted on 03/09/2012 10:27:29 AM PST by next media
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To: next media

This one makes me more nervous as it’s a closer 3-day split ...and Romney’s team always seems to “find” votes later in the night when it comes to being a close election.

I’d like to see a more comfortable margin with Romney further behind.


16 posted on 03/09/2012 10:40:53 AM PST by LibsRJerks
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To: kalee; TitansAFC; onyx; LuvFreeRepublic; Sea Parrot; SweetCaroline; matthew fuller; Gator113; ...

Newt ahead in Alabama and Mississippi pings!


17 posted on 03/09/2012 10:44:39 AM PST by TitansAFC (Newt-torum can broker 1144 delegates in August - THEY CAN DO IT!!!)
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To: TitansAFC

The South saving the Union? Go, Newt!


18 posted on 03/09/2012 10:50:02 AM PST by ReneeLynn (Socialism is SO yesterday. Fascism, it's the new black. Mmm mmm mmm...)
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To: unspun

Just one percentage point ahead of The Right Reverend Father Rick, is not enough leeway for me. I want to see Newt romp in AL and MS. I don’t need any “nail biters” Tuesday night.


19 posted on 03/09/2012 10:57:48 AM PST by no dems (No RINO-Rom, no Kook-Daddy and no "out of touch" Rev. Rick........Gingrich.... YES!!!)
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To: unspun

Heard an anti-Newt ad paid for by some PAC today. This is in AL. The ad went on about his having to pay a fine for House ethics violations. I assume Romney’s people are behind it. It seems to be his style. There are also some pro-Newt ads running which are negative towards Romney, but at least they don’t include dishonest leftist talking points.


20 posted on 03/09/2012 10:58:34 AM PST by Yardstick
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To: unspun

These States are must wins for Newt!


21 posted on 03/09/2012 11:27:20 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. Burke)
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To: SeekAndFind

SeekAndFind wrote:
<<
One thing is certain — ROMNEY ISN’T SELLING WELL IN THE SOUTH.
>>

************************************************************

Not according to the latest Rasmussen poll which now shows ROMNEY leading Mississippi by EIGHT points. (I can’t believe nobody on Free Republic is pointing this out!) I’ll tell you what... Santorum and/or Gingrich absolutely MUST win Alabama, Mississippi, and Kansas next Tuesday if we are to have any remaining hope of keeping the nomination away from Romney. I’m very uncomfortable right now with how competitive Romney seems to be right now in these Deep Southern states. If he wins one or more of them as the result of Rick and Newt splitting the conservative vote, then we might as well resign ourselves to start referring to Mitt as “Republican Presidential Candidate Romney”.

Santorum and Gingrich supporters need to start putting their differences aside to make sure this DOESN’T happen. Hopefully, both campaigns will join forces to launch a barrage of negative ads against Romney throughout the weekend.


22 posted on 03/09/2012 11:45:00 AM PST by DestroyLiberalism
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To: DestroyLiberalism

RE: Not according to the latest Rasmussen poll which now shows ROMNEY leading Mississippi by EIGHT points. (I can’t believe nobody on Free Republic is pointing this out!)

_________________________________

So, which is more accurate, the Rasmussen poll or this one which has Newt leading:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2856853/posts


23 posted on 03/09/2012 11:57:24 AM PST by SeekAndFind (question)
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To: Parley Baer

Newt , Rick, A.West , Sarah...together could rip apart the Obozo libtard snaky demagogue !

Go USA GO


24 posted on 03/09/2012 12:03:11 PM PST by Ulysse
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To: SeekAndFind

With Romney being #2 in some polls, or #3 but very very close to #2, we cannot argue that Romney isn’t selling well in the South. He seems to attract more people there than some Freepers want to believe.


25 posted on 03/09/2012 12:40:40 PM PST by paudio (no tagline for now...)
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To: SeekAndFind

SeekAndFind wrote:
<<
So, which is more accurate, the Rasmussen poll or this one which has Newt leading:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2856853/posts
>>

**************************************************************

I sure HOPE the American Research Group poll is more accurate, but I find Rasmussen to be one of the most reliable polling outfits out there and thus I tend to trust his results more. Either way, I don’t like how Romney appears to be in such a competitive position to win the Mississippi primary. Granted, he may have possibly hurt his campaign earlier today when he reportedly told a crowd of supporters in Alabama that he’s been becoming more of a southerner by saying “y’all” more often and eating grits. I know he was trying to be lighthearted and funny, but it doesn’t sound like it went over very well. You never know... Something as seemingly trivial as this could have an impact on the race next Tuesday.

Go Rick! Go Newt!


26 posted on 03/09/2012 1:26:00 PM PST by DestroyLiberalism
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To: TitansAFC

Ta-Dum!!!! Horn blow for Newt! Go Newt Go!!!!!!


27 posted on 03/09/2012 2:04:54 PM PST by caww
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To: parksstp
Proportional allocation will destroy the Anti-Romneys until they combine.

Well, then tell Santorum to drop out and endorse Newt!

28 posted on 03/09/2012 3:56:18 PM PST by Yashcheritsiy
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To: parksstp

I agree with you ... Santorum is a nightmare.

Go Newt!


29 posted on 03/09/2012 4:44:11 PM PST by Right_in_Virginia
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To: TitansAFC

Thanks for the good news ping!


30 posted on 03/09/2012 4:45:11 PM PST by Right_in_Virginia
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To: TitansAFC; onyx
E-mail from Newt's National Director Titans, which you likely already get, but thought interesting how NEWT was maneuvering...

As a key supporter of our campaign, I wanted to make sure you were armed with the correct numbers from the Republican National Committee - and not the spin from the DC Establishment who are trying to prematurely end the race for the Republican nomination.

Here are two quick things to keep in mind.

First, the magic number of delegates to secure the nomination is 1,144 and no candidate is remotely close to that number. In fact, nearly two-thirds of all delegates will come from states that haven't voted yet.

Second, there is an important distinction between bound and unbound delegates. Most media outlets are reporting estimates or projections which include unbound delegates from various beauty contests.

What only matters at this point is the number of bound delegates. According to the Republican National Committee, here's the official breakdown:

Romney - 339 delegates
Gingrich - 107 delegates
Santorum - 95 delegates
Paul - 22 delegates

As you can see, Newt is currently in second place. Many of Senator Santorum’s victories came in states whose delegates will not be selected until much later in the process. For this reason,.... ..NEWT WASN'T EXPENDING A LOT OF TIME OR RESOURCES IN THESE STATES, CHOOSING INSTEAD TO FOCUS ON STATES WITH BOUND DELEGATES......THAT SRATEGY HAS NOW BEEN VALIDATED BY THE OFFICIAL RNC DELEGATE COUNT......

Keep in mind, this breakdown doesn't take into account the fact that the challenge to the “winner take all” awarding of delegates from both Florida and Arizona - which won't be decided until this summer's convention - could reduce Governor Romney's delegate advantage dramatically.

Here's a story from the Washington Times which outlines the delegate math in greater detail, and shows that Newt is actually in second place.

Simply put, Newt is in the race for the long haul. Thank you for your generous support and for standing with Newt's campaign.

Sincerely,

Martin Baker
National Political Director
Newt 2012

31 posted on 03/09/2012 6:22:04 PM PST by caww
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To: unspun
Did not see it this way on realclearpolitics.com, like your numbers a lot better.

GO NEWT!!!!!!!!!

32 posted on 03/09/2012 11:13:22 PM PST by Irish Eyes
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To: unspun
I'm surprised Romney is at 28% and statistically tied with the others.

Makes it clear though that a Gingrich/Santorum united vote will be a clear majority.

That's what has to happen if they hope to derail Romney who took bioth Guam and the Marianna Isalnds last night, and another 18 delegates.

Here's the full, detailed results to date on my GOP Primary Tracker Site

33 posted on 03/10/2012 7:28:37 AM PST by Jeff Head (Liberty is not free. Never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: unspun

The wild card is Paul .. what will he do?’

will he run as a 3rd party and draw votes away from the GOP thus giving the election to Obama?


34 posted on 03/10/2012 5:38:55 PM PST by Munz (All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent.)
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To: Munz
will he run as a 3rd party and draw votes away from the GOP thus giving the election to Obama?

I've seen statements that he won't do that because it would cause a lot of problems for his kid in the future. Don't know if that's true or not.

35 posted on 03/10/2012 5:42:54 PM PST by nascarnation
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To: Munz
...will [Paul] run as a 3rd party and draw votes away from the GOP thus giving the election to Obama?

Or would Paul's loopy anti-war foreign policy draw even more votes away from the Democrats, thereby sealing Obama's defeat?

You can make either argument.

36 posted on 03/10/2012 5:45:41 PM PST by okie01 (/i>On Parade)
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To: unspun; LowOiL; chiefphil; American Blood; tdillard; Bamabunker; GOP_polyscigeek; Grigor; WayneM; ..
Here is a good one! A teaching moment!

http://www.therightscoop.com/newt-to-obama-this-is-what-a-drilling-for-natural-gas-looks-like/?utm_source=feedbur

37 posted on 03/10/2012 7:02:20 PM PST by seekthetruth (I want a Commander In Chief who honors and supports our Military!)
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To: parksstp

You’ll be harassed for speaking the truth. NewtBots are just as worst as the RomneyBots.


38 posted on 03/11/2012 1:51:51 AM PST by abercrombie_guy_38
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To: unspun

the REAL story the MSM will never report is that NOT-ROMNEY is kicking Myth’s BUTT... and in the case of Alabama, 2 to 1.

(Pity the primary doesn’t work that way!)


39 posted on 03/11/2012 5:50:59 PM PDT by VictoryGal (Never give up, never surrender! REMEMBER NEDA)
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To: nascarnation

>I’ve seen statements that he won’t do that because it would cause a lot of problems for his kid in the future. Don’t know if that’s true or not.<

I know Savage has stated that if he does run as a third party that Michael Savage will spend every last dime he has to defeat his kid in any political race he has and end his career.


40 posted on 03/12/2012 10:17:23 PM PDT by Munz (All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent.)
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