Skip to comments.Romney Really Might Not Have the Delegates by June
Posted on 03/09/2012 12:22:55 PM PST by SeekAndFind
The Republican primary has revealed distinct geographic tendencies. Mitt Romney is dominant in New England and in the West. Newt Gingrich has run well in the Deep South, while Rick Santorum has done well in caucus states, the Great Plains, and the peripheral South (it remains to be seen whether his support has bled into Gingrich's strength in the Deep South). That leaves the Midwest as a battleground between Romney and Santorum.
While Romney had a good night on Super Tuesday, the truth is that he did nothing to alter the basic regional nature of his support. He won handily in New England and the West, essentially tied in the Midwest, and ran poorly in the South.
Given the structure of the primary season, this portends a long slog to the nomination, and makes it difficult for Romney to wrap up the nomination early on. Consider the schedule, and the following possible outcomes:
So whats the bottom line here? Romney ends up with 1,071 delegates, still short of the nomination. Now, there are a few important caveats. First, there are 114 unpledged RNC delegates, who can vote for anyone. Second, there are another 86 delegates in states that have already voted that have yet to be allocated. Romney will probably get somewhere between a third and half of these delegates.
So a brokered convention is still a long shot, but (1) note how long it takes Romney to get into range; and (2) recall that weve perhaps been too generous with Romney in our delegate allocations in New York, Texas and California, especially after the brutal March he is likely about to have.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
In this he weighed Indiana like Ohio or Michigan, Indiana is like neither Ohio, Michigan, nor Illinois. It is a much more conservative state than Illinois, it is more conservative than Michigan, and is slighly more conservative than Ohio (or maybe much).
In the end I think IN, is likely Santorum territory. Anyone who has lived here will tell you this.
One can only pray.
RINOmney is a vapid dork.
“RINOmney is a vapid dork.”
You are too kind. Bishop Willard is a malignant vapid dork.
This analysis is really generous to Santorum.
RE: This analysis is really generous to Santorum.
So, you think it is UNREALISTIC?