Skip to comments.Michael Barone: Will AL and MS clear the field?
Posted on 03/09/2012 1:43:11 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Republicans new rules discouraging (though not entirely banning) winner-take-all delegate allocation in pre-April 1 contests have prevented anyone from getting close to the 1,144 delegate majority yet and prevent anyone from getting there at least until May. But Republican voters, by choosing Mitt Romney, can shut the process down. Romney wins in either Alabama or Mississippior, in what everyone a few days thought was impossible, bothcould effectively eliminate Gingrich from voters consideration and could make Rick Santorums path forward seem so unforbidding that even this determined and indefatigable candidate could find it hard to go on. And even if Romney only finishes close to the winners, that would make his prospects in successive Southern contestsnot only the four that still had to vote this time in 2008 but also Louisiana and giant Texaslook much better.
make Rick Santorums path forward seem so unforbidding
Editor wanted, inquire within.
How has Barone’s track record been to date?
Or has he been hedging his bets?
"ATLANTA It wasn't so long ago that the Republican Party in Georgia was just an afterthought, and Democrats were in firm control of all the levers of state government. Back then, Newt Gingrich and other die-hard GOP stalwarts ventured across the state with the far-fetched message that Republicans could reverse the tide.
Now with commanding majorities in the Statehouse and control of all statewide offices, Gingrich is hoping his vision for how the GOP could overcome decades of Democratic dominance in Georgia will pay dividends. He sorely needs a victory when his home state votes Tuesday, along with a big chunk of its 76 delegates, to prove his stumbling presidential bid has staying power.
Many Republican figures in Georgia still credit him with championing conservative policies, outlining a framework for what a GOP majority in the state could accomplish and broadcasting talking points to a generation of up-and-coming conservative leaders. He's also applauded for lobbying conservative Democrats, like then-Rep. Nathan Deal, to switch parties.
"Everyone else was trying to lose as slowly as possible, and to die with dignity at the Alamo. He was talking confidently that the Republican majority in Georgia, in the South and nationally was right around the corner," said Ralph Reed, a veteran Georgia GOP operative who founded the national Faith and Freedom Coalition. "On the one hand it was crazy, but on the other it was just the most exciting thing you've ever heard.".....................In Ga., Gingrich helped build conservative base Newt needed to marshal his resources.
Paul--------------22 Delegate Totals
Hard Totals/ Soft Totals Explained.
“In other words, it looks like there is something of a surge to Romney in these two states”
A surge is a wave of support that comes from the grass roots up. It is the result of bold ideas, and connecting with people. Romney’s support comes from the top down. Built with money (used in large part for negative ads), and establishment machinery. He has never, and will never connect with conservatives.
Barone isn't a bettor.
He's a numbers guy. He puts the various possibilities out there for us to chew on. He's very good at it, too.
This primary seems scripted like a reality TV Show..
Pubbies seems to be enjoying the drama and entertainment..
Willard has been fooling democrats into voting for him for years..
He is presently trying to fool republicans in the same way..
Dancing with the Stars may be more honest.. and genuine...
There could some like me getting really pissed off..
I am for Newt who is a proven whore..
I may need a new party.. you know one with zero chance of any impact..
The two party system seems to be totally corrupt..
In what numerical world is 30% considered a decisive win against 29% and 28%? His premise makes no sense at all. Especially when this comes down to a delegate game and they’d just about walk away with basically a tie in delegates even if there was a somewhat bigger gap.
I agree, as flawed as Newt is he has the best shot at changing things. But will he do it? Even if he wins?
Looks like Rasmussen’s AL & MS polls have RINOs everywhere all a-twitter...
Nowhere does Barone say that 30% is a decisive win. He finds it significant only because Romney was expected to do much worse there.
You are reading things into Barone's article that he did not say.
Romney wins in either Alabama or Mississippior, in what everyone a few days thought was impossible, bothcould effectively eliminate Gingrich from voters consideration and could make Rick Santorums path forward seem so unforbidding that even this determined and indefatigable candidate could find it hard to go on.
In lieu of quoting all that, I was simply using the word "decisive" which is synonymous with what he wrote and a fundamentally laughable analysis from someone who should know better, probably does, but has RINO masters to appease.
Every time Rick and Romney go head-to-head, Rick starts out with a double digit lead in the polls and ends up losing the State. (Ref. Michigan and Ohio). Newt is a different ball game. He’ll hold his leads and he’ll win. Santorum voters need to realize that we’re not voting on a National Priest, we’re electing a President.
I have been repeating the same thing over and over. Newt had nothing to do with Santorum losing Michigan or Ohio. Rick blew big leads in both.
Romney is giddy with the prospect of the conservative vote remaining divided.
MS and AL are winner take all if the winner tops 50%, proportional otherwise. With 2 candidates Romney is assured of winning delegates.