I think you make excellent points. Would add that this "Islamic Spring" didn't start in 2010-2011. It started in 1979 with Khomeini and Iran. Carter and Brzezinski were in charge.
When Carter cowered in the face of the hostage crisis, it definitely was a green light for the rest. Granted, there were other incidents prior, but that one was indeed the beginning.
If Reagan would have had a crystal ball, I think he would have made a number of different choices. But he didn’t. Carter on the other hand, would have done even more to get the ball rolling.