Blam, could you hold off the plunge till Tuesday. I have some stocks I need to sell.
Not sure I buy that. 1987, 2000 and 2007 came after prolonged market boom. He's arguing that rapid rise in the market is itself an indicator of an impending crash -- that's only the case if the economy doesn't recover as the market is anticipating.
Should this be considered more credible than the “Hindenburg Omen” from a year or so ago?
In the words of every stock market analyst I’ve ever heard: this could happen, then again, it might not.
Well, we won't have to worry for another year then...
No one this side of God knows whether the stock market is going up or down. Some of the reasons posted for a crash appear to be pure BS. One example is the 10 year bond being at a higher interest rate than it was 6 months ago. That bond has been fluctuating slightly below and above a 2% yield for many months now, and that rate is absurdly low and will remain so as long as the Fed wants to have easy money.
As for comparing the current market to 4 years ago, we were heading full force into a major recession and hitting bottom. As for the S&P, the Price Earnings ratio is still a good bit below the historical average.
So, I do not buy into this nonsense. Now, if Israel attacks Iran, or if Obama sends US troops into Syria, then the market will drop big time. This market is more subject to the influence of extraneous forces. All that being said, the market could go up or it could go down a little or a lot, or it could go sideways. As Tonto used to say to the Lone Ranger, “Quien sabe?”
But - yes- the ride will come to an end when Thelma and Louise (Ben and Timmy) hit the gas one last time, and join hands over the cliff. When? I don't know. Late summer, perhaps. In any event, the "market" is no longer a market - it's a casino, and a bankrupt casino at that.
You can learn all you need to know about where the stock market is eventually headed, long term, by watching the largest asset class the world: US Residential Real Estate.
The 4 criteria are apparently 5. If the auther could count, maybe I’d pay attention.