Skip to comments.Research Shows Obamacare Resulted in 25 Additional Democratic Losses in 2010 Elections, but....
Posted on 03/12/2012 6:10:37 AM PDT by Kaslin
I like to think people in the United States still believe in liberty, and Ive cited some polling data in support of American Exceptionalism.
And it seems like that philosophical belief in individualism and limited government sometimes has an impact in the polling booth. According to a recent study, Obamacare was poison for Democrats in 2010.
Heres an excerpt from a report in The Hill.
Voting for President Obamas healthcare reform law cost Democratic incumbents 5.8 percentage points of support at the polls in 2010, according to a new study in the journal American Politics Research. The study helps explain why Democrats lost 66 House seats, significantly more than the median academic forecast of 44 to 45 seats, study co-author Brendan Nyhan of Dartmouth College writes on his blog. Democrats in the lead-up to the elections took a number of tough votes notably on the Wall Street bailout, the stimulus and cap-and-trade but none was as unpopular as their support for the healthcare reform law. We show that the roll-call effect on vote share was driven by healthcare reform. Democratic incumbents who voted yes performed significantly worse than those who did not, Nyhan writes. We then provide simulation evidence suggesting that Democrats would win approximately 25 more seats if those in competitive districts had voted no, which accounts for the gap between the academic forecasts and the observed outcomes.
As with any statistical study, you should take the results with a big grain of salt. That caveat aside, the conclusions of the study seem quite plausible. And since Im not a fan of Obamacare and think the law will be much more costly than advertised, Im not shedding any tears for politicians who lost their jobs after voting for the new entitlement.
But the 2010 election may have been a Pyrrhic victory a short-run victory that paves the way for long-run defeat.
I think the left made a clever calculation that losses in the last cycle would be an acceptable price to get more people dependent on the federal government. And once people have to rely on government for something like healthcare, they are more likely to vote for the party that promises to make government bigger.
One of the most-viewed posts on this blog is the set of cartoons drawn by a former Cato intern, one showing how the welfare state begins and the other showing how it ends.
This is why Obamacare and the rest of the entitlement state is so worrisome. If more and more Americans decide to ride in the wagon of government dependency, it will be less and less likely that those people will vote for candidates who want to restrain government.
Europe is a good example. The supposedly conservative leaders of major nations such as Spain, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom are a bunch of big-government statists.
That being said, Im not a complete pessimist. The Medicaid and Medicare reforms in last years Ryan budget would largely solve the problem, especially since any Obamacare subsidies presumably could be eliminated as part of such reforms.
Im just not holding my breath that well get real entitlement reform in the next four years.
Continuing my tradition of periodically sharing the good political jokes from the late-night talk show hosts (you can enjoy previous editions by clicking here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here), youll find below the latest ones that passed the got-me-to-laugh test.
I cant resist one parting shot, regarding the Conan joke about happy government workers. Of course theyre happy, since their compensation is twice as high as people in the productive sector of the economy.
We decry the lazy MSM’s reliance on catchphrases but ‘reverse coattails’ or perhaps ‘coatslides’ could be applied to Obama’s poisonous effect on Dem legislative elections.
As we’ve all noted, 2010 results and issues are roundly ignored (except by the Dems themselves!) but hopefully that was only a first taste.
The MSM are in panic mode - usually there is SOME discussion of races down the ticket but this year there is next to none as they focus on dragging their idol over the finish line.
Read between the lines and this is saying if the SCOTUS tosses it out this summer, it will be the best thing that has ever happened to Obama and the Democrats.
The greatest demorat loss I’d like to see is Obummer himself! GO NEWT!
They needed research to figure this out?
So ObamaCare is a electoral loser but Mitt Romney is the Republican frontronner. Just great...