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Too close to call in Alabama and Mississippi (PPP Poll)
Public Policy Polling ^ | Mar 12, 2012 | Public Policy Polling

Posted on 03/12/2012 6:28:18 AM PDT by deport

Too close to call in Alabama and Mississippi

Tuesday looks like it's going to be a close election night in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum, and 7% for Ron Paul. And Alabama is even closer with Romney at 31% to 30% for Gingrich, 29% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.

Gingrich and Santorum are both more popular than Romney in each of these states. In Mississippi Gingrich's net favorability is +33 (62/29) to +32 for Santorum (60/28) and +10 for Romney (51/41). It's a similar story in Alabama where Santorum's at +32 (63/31), Gingrich is at +26 (58/32), and Romney's at only +13 (53/40).

The reason Romney has a chance to win despite being less popular in both states is the split in the conservative vote. In Mississippi 44% of voters describe themselves as 'very conservative' and Romney's getting only 26% with them. But he's still in the mix because Gingrich leads Santorum only 35-32 with them. In Alabama where 45% of voters identify as 'very conservative,' Romney's at just 24%. But again he remains competitive overall because his opponents are so tightly packed with those voters, with Santorum at 37% and Gingrich at 31%.

It's not really clear who, if anyone, has the momentum in these states. In Mississippi folks who've decided in the last few days go for Gingrich over Santorum 37-29 with Romney at only 15%. But in Alabama the late deciders go 38-29 for Romney over Santorum with Gingrich at 23%.

About all we know is that Ron Paul won't win any of these states on Tuesday...the other three candidates all have a shot in both of them.

Full results here


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: Alabama; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: alabama; getoutnewt; mississippi; newt4romney; newtgetout; newtsplittingthevote; primary

1 posted on 03/12/2012 6:28:24 AM PDT by deport
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To: deport

Each following line will list the state name by its first 3-4 letters, the model I use to estimate the delegate breakdown( lib for liberal), total delegates allocated, and delegate shares designated with R for Romney, S for Santorum, and N for Newt.

(Based on delegate counts from Real Clear Politics – which calculated Romney has 455, Santorum 199, and Newt 117 at the time I did this analysis.)

Ala.........Okla..............50..................16R................17S..................17N

Alabama is truly southern state, therefore, will vote like Oklahoma.

Cali........Wash..............172..............129R...............20S.................23N

California is liberal state with CD winner take all.

Conn........lib.................28.................28R

Connecticut is libral state with winner-take-all, WTA

Del...........lib.................17..................17R

Delaware is the same as Conn.

DC...........lib...................19...............19R

DC is the same as Delaware.

Haw.........lib...................20..................20R

Hawaii is the same as DC.

Ill............lib....................69..................69R

Illinois is the most corrupted.

Ind..........Ohio...............46..................27R.............19S

Indiana is similar but slightly more conservative than Ohio.

Ken........Kan.................45..................8R................37S

Kentucky is like Kansas.

Loui.........Okla..............46..................15R..............15S..............16N

Louisiana is southern state, like Oklahoma.

Mary.........lib.................37..................37R

Maryland is liberal, WTA.

Miss.........Okla...............40.................13R................14S............13N

Mississippi is southern state, like Oklahoma.

Missou.....Tenn............. 52................15R.................27S.............10N

Missouri has more self-righteous Christians, like Tenn.

Mont.........Wyo.............26.................26R

Montana is far west state, like Wyoming, maybe some for Santorum due to more conservatism, but not much.

Neb...........Minn.............35................17R.................18S

Nebraska is more conservative of the far west, so I used Minnesota model.

NJ............lib..................50.................50R

NJ is liberal. WTA

NY..........lib..................95..................95R

NY is liberal, WTA at districts, so Newt can steal some here.

NC..........Okl............ .55..................25R................15S.............15N

NC is southern but more transient, therefore, more liberal, hybrid between Okla/Ohio.

Ore..........lib..................28..................28R

Oregon is liberal, like Washington.

Penn.......Mich..............72...................30R..............35S..............7N

Penn is like Ohio, but Santorum’s home state, more sophisticated than Ohio so Newt gets some.

RI...........lib..................19....................19R

RI is liberal.

S.Dako...Wyo...............28...................18R...............10S

South Dakota is far west state but conservative, I used Ohio model.

TX ........Tenn/GA........155.................44R..............27S.............84N

I use hybrid model between Tenn and GA due to the natures of soutern state and Perry’s endorsement for Newt.

Uta........Wyo.................40..................40R

Utah is Mormon state.

WV........Okla................31..................15R...............7S..............8N

West Virginia is like Virginia, goes with establishment, not sophisticated, Oklahoma-light model here with Romney is favored.

Wis........NDak..............42..................14R..............22S.............6N

Wisconsin is intellectual, rural, ND or Tenn model here.

Puerto.....lib...................23..................23R

Puerto is liberal.

Total...................................................857R

Romney now has 455, needs to have 1,144 for nomination. With projected 857 delegates, he will have 455 + 857 = 1312 delegates.

I took into account state-wise and district winner-take-all options from most states. Of course I will miss some technicalities here and there but the whole picture does look gloomy.


2 posted on 03/12/2012 6:35:31 AM PDT by God-fear-republican
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To: deport
I have not been polled and unless some romney supporter shoots me in the head before tomorrow... I will vote for Newt in MS... PS... I shoot back.

LLS

3 posted on 03/12/2012 6:49:58 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (WOLVERINES!)
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To: DrewsMum; Tupelo; mstar; jdirt; Vietnam Vet From New Mexico; wardaddy; KLT; montesquiue; ...

Mississippi ping


4 posted on 03/12/2012 6:55:00 AM PDT by WKB (Anything Obama: "What a revoltin' development this is")
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To: LibLieSlayer

I think the dedication of the supporters may well make these polls incorrect. A strong GOTV by one candidate could well win the race by a comfortable margin. Good luck.


5 posted on 03/12/2012 6:55:58 AM PDT by deport (..............God Bless Texas............)
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To: deport
Ailes has to be in quite the quandary. On the one hand, Santorum is the greatest threat, so reviving Gingrich is the safe bet. On the other hand, if he revives Gingrich, the flogging of Romney continues, although Romney still wins. What to do?
6 posted on 03/12/2012 7:04:40 AM PDT by throwback ( The object of opening the mind, as of opening the mouth, is to shut it again on something solid.)
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To: deport
Here's the GOP Primary total results from my GOP Primary Tracker Site (which I will update after the Tuesday results are in):

2012 GOP Presidential Primary Season Tracker (including caucuses) - LAST UPDATE: March 11, 2012

2012 GOP Primaries Date Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum Ron Paul Ron Huntsman Rick Perry Michele Bachman Herman Cain Totals
Votes % Del's Win Votes % Del's Win Votes % Del's Win Votes % Del's Win Votes % Del's Votes % Del's Votes % Del's Votes % Del's Votes Del's
Iowa 1/3/2012 29,805 24.58% 7 - 16,163 13.33% 2 - 29,839 24.61% 7 1 26,036 21.47% 7 - 739 0.61% 0 12,557 10.36% 0 6,046 4.99% 0 58 0.05% 0 121,243 23
New Hamp 1/10/2012 97,601 39.81% 7 1 23,291 9.50% 0 - 23,362 9.53% 0 - 56,872 23.20% 3 - 41,783 17.04% 2 1,764 0.72% 0 350 0.14% 0 160 0.07% 0 245,183 12
South Caro 1/21/2012 168,152 27.86% 2 - 244,133 40.44% 23 1 102,492 16.98% 0 - 78,362 12.98% 0 - 1,173 0.19% 0 2,534 0.42% 0 491 0.08% 0 6,326 1.05% 0 603,663 25
Florida 1/31/2012 776,059 46.44% 50 2 534,040 31.96% 0 - 223,208 13.36% 0 - 117,410 7.03% 0 - 6,199 0.37% 0 6,773 0.41% 0 3,967 0.24% 0 3,492 0.21% 0 1,671,148 50
Nevada 2/4/2012 16,486 50.12% 14 3 6,956 21.15% 6 - 3,277 9.96% 3 - 6,175 18.77% 5 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 32,894 28
Main   2,190 39.65% 9 4 349 6.32% 0 - 989 17.90% 3 - 1,996 36.13% 7 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 5,524 19
Colorado 2/7/2012 22,875 35.00% 13 - 8,394 12.84% 1 - 26,372 40.35% 17 2 7,713 11.80% 1 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 65,354 32
Minnesota   8,096 16.97% 2 - 5,134 10.76% 1 - 21,436 44.94% 25 3 13,030 27.32% 9 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 47,696 14
Missouri   63,826 26.24% 0 - 9,859 4.05% 0 - 138,957 57.12% 0 4 30,641 12.59% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 243,283 0
Arizona 2/28/2012 216,805 47.99% 29 5 74,110 16.40% 0 - 122,088 27.03% 0 - 38,753 8.58% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 451,756 29
Michigan   409,899 42.34% 16 6 65,016 6.72% 0 - 377,521 38.99% 14 - 115,712 11.95% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 968,148 30
Washington 3/3/2012 19,111 37.65% 30 7 5,221 10.28% 0 - 12,089 23.81% 5 - 12,594 24.81% 5 - 924 1.82% 0 437 0.86% 0 198 0.39% 0 190 0.37% 0 50,764 40
Wyoming   822 38.99% 10 8 165 7.83% 1 - 673 31.93% 9 - 439 20.83% 6 - 3 0.14% 0 2 0.09% 0 2 0.09% 0 2 0.09% 0 2,108 26
Alaska 3/6/2012 4,285 32.52% 8 9 1,856 14.09% 3 - 3,860 29.30% 7 - 3,175 24.10% 6 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 13,176 24
Georgia S 225,926 25.18% 15 - 417,364 47.81% 47 2 172,473 19.76% 10 - 57,125 6.54% 4 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 872,888 76
Idaho u 27,514 61.61% 32 10 940 2.11% 0 - 8,115 18.17% 0 - 8,086 18.11% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 44,655 32
Massachusetts p 260,509 73.29% 41 11 16,756 4.71% 0 - 43,6114 12.27% 0 - 34,575 9.735 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 355,455 41
N. Dakota  e 2,691 23.71% 7 - 961 8.48% 2 - 4,510 39.74% 11 5 3,186 28.07% 8 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 11,349 28
Ohio r 453,927 38.93% 32 12 174,606 14.78% 10 - 441,908 37.42% 20 - 110,633 9.37% 4 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 1,181,074 66
Oklahoma 80,291 28.34% 13 - 78,686 27.77% 13 - 96,759 34.15% 14 6 27,572 9.73% 13 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 283,208 43
Tennessee T 153,889 28.46% 18 - 132,142 24.43% 12 - 204,978 37.90% 26 7 49,782 9.21% 2 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 540,791 58
Vermont u 22,533 41.01% 9 13 4,606 8.39% 0 - 13,401 24.39% 4 - 14,407 26.22% 4 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 54,949 17
Virginia e 158,050 59.52% 44 14 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 107,470 40.48% 5 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 265,520 49
Guam 3/10/2012 215 100% 9 15 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 215 9
Marianna Is 738 87.03% 9 16 29 3.42% 0 - 27 3.18% 0 - 54 6.37% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 848 9
Virgin Is 132 46.32% 7 17 18 6.32% 0 - 23 8.07% 0 - 112 39.30% 1 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 848 8
Kansas 6,250 21.11% 7 - 4,298 14.52% 0 - 15,290 51.65% 33 8 3,767 12.72% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 29,605 40
Alabama 3/13/2012 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 50
Am Somoa 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 9
Hawaii 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 20
Mississippi 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 40
Missouri 3/17/2012 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 52
Puerto Rico 3/18/2024 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 23
Illinois 3/20/2012 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 69
Louisiana 3/24/2012 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 46
DC 4/3/2012 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 19
Maryland 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 37
Wisconsin 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 42
Conn 4/24/2012 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 28
Deleware 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 17
New York 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 95
Pennsylvania 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 72
Rhode Il 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 28
                                                               
At large Del's       29       4       2       1       0     0     0         36
TOTALS   3,228,677 39.55% 471 17 1,825,093 22.36% 125 2 2,087,261 25.57% 208 8 925,677 11.34% 89 0 50,821 0.62% 2 24,067 0.29% 0 11,054 0.13% 0 10,228 0.13% 0 8,162,878 896
To Date % of Delegates Romney 53% Gingrich 14% Santorum 23% Paul 10% Huntsman 0.22% Perry 0% Bachman 0% Cain 0%

If Newt and Santorum were combined this would be a completely different race. Though there are a good 8-10 wins fro Romney where not even a combination of Gingrich and Santorum would have won, there are 6-7 more where they would. Add that to the 10 races already won by the two and you have a popular vote lead, though the delegate count would still be very close.

But very close could easily translate into an out and out win, whereas now, Romney is using the split conservative vote to engineer and head for a possible outright nomination.

I hope after Tuesday's vote, particularly if Newt does not win both races, that the two of them will get together and work something out.

7 posted on 03/12/2012 7:06:20 AM PDT by Jeff Head (Liberty is not free. Never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: LibLieSlayer

That is way I love MS. We vote on election day, not that early voting crap that draws it out. If you want to matter you go that day. I’m voting Newt and Ross in MS1. Nunnelee is Boehner’s lap dog.


8 posted on 03/12/2012 7:08:40 AM PDT by Sybeck1 (RIP Tea Party 2009-2012)
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To: deport

We ALL need luck these days and thank you.

LLS


9 posted on 03/12/2012 7:14:08 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (WOLVERINES!)
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To: Sybeck1

I am voting for any TEA Party challenger to wicker and palazzo and I am voting for Newt. Good luck!

LLS


10 posted on 03/12/2012 7:15:55 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (WOLVERINES!)
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To: deportall

It’s time to vote strategically to stop Romney.

That means voting for the consevative in each state who’s closest to defeating Romney, regardless of whether one might perefer the other conservative in a two man race between Gingrich and Santorum. Santorum was leading here in Tennessee; hence, I votd for him, have given his campaign $200, and have a Santorum sticker on my vehicle. However, tomorrow I’d vote for Newt if I lived in either Alabama or Misissippi just to stop Romney, and do it because Newt’s leading Santorum in those two states.


11 posted on 03/12/2012 7:41:51 AM PDT by libstripper
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To: deport

I don’t get this at all. The south is generally quite conservative. Romney should be in the single digits all over the south.


12 posted on 03/12/2012 8:38:24 AM PDT by Graybeard58 (Eccl 10 v. 19 A feast is made for laughter, and wine maketh merry: but money answereth all things.)
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To: Graybeard58

PPP tweeted...

Gingrich and Santorum are both much more popular than Romney in AL and MS

But Romney has chance to win in AL and MS because Newt and Rick are splitting ‘very conservative’ vote almost equally


13 posted on 03/12/2012 9:35:43 AM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: God-fear-republican

IL, PA and WV are direct delegate elections. Therefore they should be calculated as winner-take-all by district. Whichever delegates get the most votes in each district will win that district and the others will get nothing.

If Santorum’s delegates get 35% of the vote, as long as the other 3 guys get lower votes, he gets all 3 delegates for that district. Technically a voter could split their vote and vote for 1 Santorum delegate, 1 Romney delegate, 1 Newt delegate, but I doubt that’s going to happen. That’s the only way a district could come out not winner-take-all in those states.


14 posted on 03/12/2012 9:39:08 AM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: JediJones

If there is a sole conservative non-Romney candidate who get >50% votes, Romney will get zero delegate in WTA districts. Splitting votes between Sant and Newt, they allow Rom to get 1/3 of votes and delegates while he should get none.

Depressing. There is no difference between Romney and Obama.

The Enemy always allow us suckers to choose the bad and the bad-der and we think we had a choice to choose between Republican or Democrat!


15 posted on 03/12/2012 10:58:43 AM PDT by God-fear-republican
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To: Graybeard58
I don’t get this at all. The south is generally quite conservative. Romney should be in the single digits all over the south.

They heard Romney is severely conservative. And they probably don't realize their party machine is steering them down the RINO highway.

16 posted on 03/12/2012 11:24:14 AM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: deport

BTTT for prayer...


17 posted on 03/12/2012 12:37:18 PM PDT by Bradís Gramma (PRAY for this country like your life depends on it....)
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To: Graybeard58
Romney should be in the single digits all over the south.

Easy answer: people everywhere like to vote for "the winner." And shall the southerners too if these polls are correct.

18 posted on 03/12/2012 5:50:36 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Mathematically, it's all over, says Mittens. I'm afraid the people will again let us down.)
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