Too close to call in Alabama and Mississippi (PPP Poll)

Public Policy Polling ^ | Mar 12, 2012 | Public Policy Polling

[deport]

Too close to call in Alabama and Mississippi

Tuesday looks like it's going to be a close election night in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum, and 7% for Ron Paul. And Alabama is even closer with Romney at 31% to 30% for Gingrich, 29% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.

Gingrich and Santorum are both more popular than Romney in each of these states. In Mississippi Gingrich's net favorability is +33 (62/29) to +32 for Santorum (60/28) and +10 for Romney (51/41). It's a similar story in Alabama where Santorum's at +32 (63/31), Gingrich is at +26 (58/32), and Romney's at only +13 (53/40).

The reason Romney has a chance to win despite being less popular in both states is the split in the conservative vote. In Mississippi 44% of voters describe themselves as 'very conservative' and Romney's getting only 26% with them. But he's still in the mix because Gingrich leads Santorum only 35-32 with them. In Alabama where 45% of voters identify as 'very conservative,' Romney's at just 24%. But again he remains competitive overall because his opponents are so tightly packed with those voters, with Santorum at 37% and Gingrich at 31%.

It's not really clear who, if anyone, has the momentum in these states. In Mississippi folks who've decided in the last few days go for Gingrich over Santorum 37-29 with Romney at only 15%. But in Alabama the late deciders go 38-29 for Romney over Santorum with Gingrich at 23%.

About all we know is that Ron Paul won't win any of these states on Tuesday...the other three candidates all have a shot in both of them.

Full results here

[God-fear-republican]

Each following line will list the state name by its first 3-4 letters, the model I use to estimate the delegate breakdown( lib for liberal), total delegates allocated, and delegate shares designated with R for Romney, S for Santorum, and N for Newt.

(Based on delegate counts from Real Clear Politics – which calculated Romney has 455, Santorum 199, and Newt 117 at the time I did this analysis.)

Ala.........Okla..............50..................16R................17S..................17N

Alabama is truly southern state, therefore, will vote like Oklahoma.

Cali........Wash..............172..............129R...............20S.................23N

California is liberal state with CD winner take all.

Conn........lib.................28.................28R

Connecticut is libral state with winner-take-all, WTA

Del...........lib.................17..................17R

Delaware is the same as Conn.

DC...........lib...................19...............19R

DC is the same as Delaware.

Haw.........lib...................20..................20R

Hawaii is the same as DC.

Ill............lib....................69..................69R

Illinois is the most corrupted.

Ind..........Ohio...............46..................27R.............19S

Indiana is similar but slightly more conservative than Ohio.

Ken........Kan.................45..................8R................37S

Kentucky is like Kansas.

Loui.........Okla..............46..................15R..............15S..............16N

Louisiana is southern state, like Oklahoma.

Mary.........lib.................37..................37R

Maryland is liberal, WTA.

Miss.........Okla...............40.................13R................14S............13N

Mississippi is southern state, like Oklahoma.

Missou.....Tenn............. 52................15R.................27S.............10N

Missouri has more self-righteous Christians, like Tenn.

Mont.........Wyo.............26.................26R

Montana is far west state, like Wyoming, maybe some for Santorum due to more conservatism, but not much.

Neb...........Minn.............35................17R.................18S

Nebraska is more conservative of the far west, so I used Minnesota model.

NJ............lib..................50.................50R

NJ is liberal. WTA

NY..........lib..................95..................95R

NY is liberal, WTA at districts, so Newt can steal some here.

NC..........Okl............ .55..................25R................15S.............15N

NC is southern but more transient, therefore, more liberal, hybrid between Okla/Ohio.

Ore..........lib..................28..................28R

Oregon is liberal, like Washington.

Penn.......Mich..............72...................30R..............35S..............7N

Penn is like Ohio, but Santorum’s home state, more sophisticated than Ohio so Newt gets some.

RI...........lib..................19....................19R

RI is liberal.

S.Dako...Wyo...............28...................18R...............10S

South Dakota is far west state but conservative, I used Ohio model.

TX ........Tenn/GA........155.................44R..............27S.............84N

I use hybrid model between Tenn and GA due to the natures of soutern state and Perry’s endorsement for Newt.

Uta........Wyo.................40..................40R

Utah is Mormon state.

WV........Okla................31..................15R...............7S..............8N

West Virginia is like Virginia, goes with establishment, not sophisticated, Oklahoma-light model here with Romney is favored.

Wis........NDak..............42..................14R..............22S.............6N

Wisconsin is intellectual, rural, ND or Tenn model here.

Puerto.....lib...................23..................23R

Puerto is liberal.

Total...................................................857R

Romney now has 455, needs to have 1,144 for nomination. With projected 857 delegates, he will have 455 + 857 = 1312 delegates.

I took into account state-wise and district winner-take-all options from most states. Of course I will miss some technicalities here and there but the whole picture does look gloomy.

[LibLieSlayer]

I have not been polled and unless some romney supporter shoots me in the head before tomorrow... I will vote for Newt in MS... PS... I shoot back.

LLS

[WKB]

Mississippi ping

[deport]

I think the dedication of the supporters may well make these polls incorrect. A strong GOTV by one candidate could well win the race by a comfortable margin. Good luck.

[throwback]

Ailes has to be in quite the quandary. On the one hand, Santorum is the greatest threat, so reviving Gingrich is the safe bet. On the other hand, if he revives Gingrich, the flogging of Romney continues, although Romney still wins. What to do?

[Jeff Head]

Here's the GOP Primary total results from my GOP Primary Tracker Site (which I will update after the Tuesday results are in):

2012 GOP Presidential Primary Season Tracker (including caucuses) - LAST UPDATE: March 11, 2012

2012 GOP Primaries	Date	Mitt Romney				Newt Gingrich				Rick Santorum				Ron Paul				Ron Huntsman			Rick Perry			Michele Bachman			Herman Cain			Totals
		Votes	%	Del's	Win	Votes	%	Del's	Win	Votes	%	Del's	Win	Votes	%	Del's	Win	Votes	%	Del's	Votes	%	Del's	Votes	%	Del's	Votes	%	Del's	Votes	Del's
Iowa	1/3/2012	29,805	24.58%	7	-	16,163	13.33%	2	-	29,839	24.61%	7	1	26,036	21.47%	7	-	739	0.61%	0	12,557	10.36%	0	6,046	4.99%	0	58	0.05%	0	121,243	23
New Hamp	1/10/2012	97,601	39.81%	7	1	23,291	9.50%	0	-	23,362	9.53%	0	-	56,872	23.20%	3	-	41,783	17.04%	2	1,764	0.72%	0	350	0.14%	0	160	0.07%	0	245,183	12
South Caro	1/21/2012	168,152	27.86%	2	-	244,133	40.44%	23	1	102,492	16.98%	0	-	78,362	12.98%	0	-	1,173	0.19%	0	2,534	0.42%	0	491	0.08%	0	6,326	1.05%	0	603,663	25
Florida	1/31/2012	776,059	46.44%	50	2	534,040	31.96%	0	-	223,208	13.36%	0	-	117,410	7.03%	0	-	6,199	0.37%	0	6,773	0.41%	0	3,967	0.24%	0	3,492	0.21%	0	1,671,148	50
Nevada	2/4/2012	16,486	50.12%	14	3	6,956	21.15%	6	-	3,277	9.96%	3	-	6,175	18.77%	5	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	32,894	28
Main		2,190	39.65%	9	4	349	6.32%	0	-	989	17.90%	3	-	1,996	36.13%	7	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	5,524	19
Colorado	2/7/2012	22,875	35.00%	13	-	8,394	12.84%	1	-	26,372	40.35%	17	2	7,713	11.80%	1	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	65,354	32
Minnesota		8,096	16.97%	2	-	5,134	10.76%	1	-	21,436	44.94%	25	3	13,030	27.32%	9	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	47,696	14
Missouri		63,826	26.24%	0	-	9,859	4.05%	0	-	138,957	57.12%	0	4	30,641	12.59%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	243,283	0
Arizona	2/28/2012	216,805	47.99%	29	5	74,110	16.40%	0	-	122,088	27.03%	0	-	38,753	8.58%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	451,756	29
Michigan		409,899	42.34%	16	6	65,016	6.72%	0	-	377,521	38.99%	14	-	115,712	11.95%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	968,148	30
Washington	3/3/2012	19,111	37.65%	30	7	5,221	10.28%	0	-	12,089	23.81%	5	-	12,594	24.81%	5	-	924	1.82%	0	437	0.86%	0	198	0.39%	0	190	0.37%	0	50,764	40
Wyoming		822	38.99%	10	8	165	7.83%	1	-	673	31.93%	9	-	439	20.83%	6	-	3	0.14%	0	2	0.09%	0	2	0.09%	0	2	0.09%	0	2,108	26
Alaska	3/6/2012	4,285	32.52%	8	9	1,856	14.09%	3	-	3,860	29.30%	7	-	3,175	24.10%	6	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	13,176	24
Georgia	S	225,926	25.18%	15	-	417,364	47.81%	47	2	172,473	19.76%	10	-	57,125	6.54%	4	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	872,888	76
Idaho	u	27,514	61.61%	32	10	940	2.11%	0	-	8,115	18.17%	0	-	8,086	18.11%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	44,655	32
Massachusetts	p	260,509	73.29%	41	11	16,756	4.71%	0	-	43,6114	12.27%	0	-	34,575	9.735	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	355,455	41
N. Dakota	e	2,691	23.71%	7	-	961	8.48%	2	-	4,510	39.74%	11	5	3,186	28.07%	8	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	11,349	28
Ohio	r	453,927	38.93%	32	12	174,606	14.78%	10	-	441,908	37.42%	20	-	110,633	9.37%	4	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	1,181,074	66
Oklahoma		80,291	28.34%	13	-	78,686	27.77%	13	-	96,759	34.15%	14	6	27,572	9.73%	13	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	283,208	43
Tennessee	T	153,889	28.46%	18	-	132,142	24.43%	12	-	204,978	37.90%	26	7	49,782	9.21%	2	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	540,791	58
Vermont	u	22,533	41.01%	9	13	4,606	8.39%	0	-	13,401	24.39%	4	-	14,407	26.22%	4	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	54,949	17
Virginia	e	158,050	59.52%	44	14	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	107,470	40.48%	5	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	265,520	49
Guam	3/10/2012	215	100%	9	15	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	215	9
Marianna Is		738	87.03%	9	16	29	3.42%	0	-	27	3.18%	0	-	54	6.37%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	848	9
Virgin Is		132	46.32%	7	17	18	6.32%	0	-	23	8.07%	0	-	112	39.30%	1	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	848	8
Kansas		6,250	21.11%	7	-	4,298	14.52%	0	-	15,290	51.65%	33	8	3,767	12.72%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	29,605	40
Alabama	3/13/2012	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	50
Am Somoa		0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	9
Hawaii		0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	20
Mississippi		0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	40
Missouri	3/17/2012	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	52
Puerto Rico	3/18/2024	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	23
Illinois	3/20/2012	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	69
Louisiana	3/24/2012	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	46
DC	4/3/2012	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	19
Maryland		0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	37
Wisconsin		0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	42
Conn	4/24/2012	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	28
Deleware		0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	17
New York		0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	95
Pennsylvania		0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	72
Rhode Il		0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	-	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	0.00%	0	0	28
At large Del's				29				4				2				1				0			0			0					36
TOTALS		3,228,677	39.55%	471	17	1,825,093	22.36%	125	2	2,087,261	25.57%	208	8	925,677	11.34%	89	0	50,821	0.62%	2	24,067	0.29%	0	11,054	0.13%	0	10,228	0.13%	0	8,162,878	896
To Date % of	Delegates		Romney	53%			Gingrich	14%			Santorum	23%			Paul	10%			Huntsman	0.22%		Perry	0%		Bachman	0%		Cain	0%

---

If Newt and Santorum were combined this would be a completely different race. Though there are a good 8-10 wins fro Romney where not even a combination of Gingrich and Santorum would have won, there are 6-7 more where they would. Add that to the 10 races already won by the two and you have a popular vote lead, though the delegate count would still be very close.

But very close could easily translate into an out and out win, whereas now, Romney is using the split conservative vote to engineer and head for a possible outright nomination.

I hope after Tuesday's vote, particularly if Newt does not win both races, that the two of them will get together and work something out.

[Sybeck1]

That is way I love MS. We vote on election day, not that early voting crap that draws it out. If you want to matter you go that day. I’m voting Newt and Ross in MS1. Nunnelee is Boehner’s lap dog.

[LibLieSlayer]

We ALL need luck these days and thank you.

LLS

[LibLieSlayer]

I am voting for any TEA Party challenger to wicker and palazzo and I am voting for Newt. Good luck!

LLS

[libstripper]

It’s time to vote strategically to stop Romney.

That means voting for the consevative in each state who’s closest to defeating Romney, regardless of whether one might perefer the other conservative in a two man race between Gingrich and Santorum. Santorum was leading here in Tennessee; hence, I votd for him, have given his campaign $200, and have a Santorum sticker on my vehicle. However, tomorrow I’d vote for Newt if I lived in either Alabama or Misissippi just to stop Romney, and do it because Newt’s leading Santorum in those two states.

[Graybeard58]

I don’t get this at all. The south is generally quite conservative. Romney should be in the single digits all over the south.

[JediJones]

PPP tweeted...

Gingrich and Santorum are both much more popular than Romney in AL and MS

But Romney has chance to win in AL and MS because Newt and Rick are splitting ‘very conservative’ vote almost equally

[JediJones]

IL, PA and WV are direct delegate elections. Therefore they should be calculated as winner-take-all by district. Whichever delegates get the most votes in each district will win that district and the others will get nothing.

If Santorum’s delegates get 35% of the vote, as long as the other 3 guys get lower votes, he gets all 3 delegates for that district. Technically a voter could split their vote and vote for 1 Santorum delegate, 1 Romney delegate, 1 Newt delegate, but I doubt that’s going to happen. That’s the only way a district could come out not winner-take-all in those states.

[God-fear-republican]

If there is a sole conservative non-Romney candidate who get >50% votes, Romney will get zero delegate in WTA districts. Splitting votes between Sant and Newt, they allow Rom to get 1/3 of votes and delegates while he should get none.

Depressing. There is no difference between Romney and Obama.

The Enemy always allow us suckers to choose the bad and the bad-der and we think we had a choice to choose between Republican or Democrat!

[JediJones]

I don’t get this at all. The south is generally quite conservative. Romney should be in the single digits all over the south.

They heard Romney is severely conservative. And they probably don't realize their party machine is steering them down the RINO highway.

[Brad’s Gramma]

BTTT for prayer...

[Theodore R.]

Romney should be in the single digits all over the south.

Easy answer: people everywhere like to vote for "the winner." And shall the southerners too if these polls are correct.