Posted on 03/12/2012 6:28:18 AM PDT by deport
Tuesday looks like it's going to be a close election night in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum, and 7% for Ron Paul. And Alabama is even closer with Romney at 31% to 30% for Gingrich, 29% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.
Gingrich and Santorum are both more popular than Romney in each of these states. In Mississippi Gingrich's net favorability is +33 (62/29) to +32 for Santorum (60/28) and +10 for Romney (51/41). It's a similar story in Alabama where Santorum's at +32 (63/31), Gingrich is at +26 (58/32), and Romney's at only +13 (53/40).
The reason Romney has a chance to win despite being less popular in both states is the split in the conservative vote. In Mississippi 44% of voters describe themselves as 'very conservative' and Romney's getting only 26% with them. But he's still in the mix because Gingrich leads Santorum only 35-32 with them. In Alabama where 45% of voters identify as 'very conservative,' Romney's at just 24%. But again he remains competitive overall because his opponents are so tightly packed with those voters, with Santorum at 37% and Gingrich at 31%.
It's not really clear who, if anyone, has the momentum in these states. In Mississippi folks who've decided in the last few days go for Gingrich over Santorum 37-29 with Romney at only 15%. But in Alabama the late deciders go 38-29 for Romney over Santorum with Gingrich at 23%.
About all we know is that Ron Paul won't win any of these states on Tuesday...the other three candidates all have a shot in both of them.
Full results here
Each following line will list the state name by its first 3-4 letters, the model I use to estimate the delegate breakdown( lib for liberal), total delegates allocated, and delegate shares designated with R for Romney, S for Santorum, and N for Newt.
(Based on delegate counts from Real Clear Politics which calculated Romney has 455, Santorum 199, and Newt 117 at the time I did this analysis.)
Ala.........Okla..............50..................16R................17S..................17N
Alabama is truly southern state, therefore, will vote like Oklahoma.
Cali........Wash..............172..............129R...............20S.................23N
California is liberal state with CD winner take all.
Conn........lib.................28.................28R
Connecticut is libral state with winner-take-all, WTA
Del...........lib.................17..................17R
Delaware is the same as Conn.
DC...........lib...................19...............19R
DC is the same as Delaware.
Haw.........lib...................20..................20R
Hawaii is the same as DC.
Ill............lib....................69..................69R
Illinois is the most corrupted.
Ind..........Ohio...............46..................27R.............19S
Indiana is similar but slightly more conservative than Ohio.
Ken........Kan.................45..................8R................37S
Kentucky is like Kansas.
Loui.........Okla..............46..................15R..............15S..............16N
Louisiana is southern state, like Oklahoma.
Mary.........lib.................37..................37R
Maryland is liberal, WTA.
Miss.........Okla...............40.................13R................14S............13N
Mississippi is southern state, like Oklahoma.
Missou.....Tenn............. 52................15R.................27S.............10N
Missouri has more self-righteous Christians, like Tenn.
Mont.........Wyo.............26.................26R
Montana is far west state, like Wyoming, maybe some for Santorum due to more conservatism, but not much.
Neb...........Minn.............35................17R.................18S
Nebraska is more conservative of the far west, so I used Minnesota model.
NJ............lib..................50.................50R
NJ is liberal. WTA
NY..........lib..................95..................95R
NY is liberal, WTA at districts, so Newt can steal some here.
NC..........Okl............ .55..................25R................15S.............15N
NC is southern but more transient, therefore, more liberal, hybrid between Okla/Ohio.
Ore..........lib..................28..................28R
Oregon is liberal, like Washington.
Penn.......Mich..............72...................30R..............35S..............7N
Penn is like Ohio, but Santorums home state, more sophisticated than Ohio so Newt gets some.
RI...........lib..................19....................19R
RI is liberal.
S.Dako...Wyo...............28...................18R...............10S
South Dakota is far west state but conservative, I used Ohio model.
TX ........Tenn/GA........155.................44R..............27S.............84N
I use hybrid model between Tenn and GA due to the natures of soutern state and Perrys endorsement for Newt.
Uta........Wyo.................40..................40R
Utah is Mormon state.
WV........Okla................31..................15R...............7S..............8N
West Virginia is like Virginia, goes with establishment, not sophisticated, Oklahoma-light model here with Romney is favored.
Wis........NDak..............42..................14R..............22S.............6N
Wisconsin is intellectual, rural, ND or Tenn model here.
Puerto.....lib...................23..................23R
Puerto is liberal.
Total...................................................857R
Romney now has 455, needs to have 1,144 for nomination. With projected 857 delegates, he will have 455 + 857 = 1312 delegates.
I took into account state-wise and district winner-take-all options from most states. Of course I will miss some technicalities here and there but the whole picture does look gloomy.
LLS
Mississippi ping
I think the dedication of the supporters may well make these polls incorrect. A strong GOTV by one candidate could well win the race by a comfortable margin. Good luck.
2012 GOP Primaries | Date | Mitt Romney | Newt Gingrich | Rick Santorum | Ron Paul | Ron Huntsman | Rick Perry | Michele Bachman | Herman Cain | Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||
Votes | % | Del's | Win | Votes | % | Del's | Win | Votes | % | Del's | Win | Votes | % | Del's | Win | Votes | % | Del's | Votes | % | Del's | Votes | % | Del's | Votes | % | Del's | Votes | Del's | ||
Iowa | 1/3/2012 | 29,805 | 24.58% | 7 | - | 16,163 | 13.33% | 2 | - | 29,839 | 24.61% | 7 | 1 | 26,036 | 21.47% | 7 | - | 739 | 0.61% | 0 | 12,557 | 10.36% | 0 | 6,046 | 4.99% | 0 | 58 | 0.05% | 0 | 121,243 | 23 |
New Hamp | 1/10/2012 | 97,601 | 39.81% | 7 | 1 | 23,291 | 9.50% | 0 | - | 23,362 | 9.53% | 0 | - | 56,872 | 23.20% | 3 | - | 41,783 | 17.04% | 2 | 1,764 | 0.72% | 0 | 350 | 0.14% | 0 | 160 | 0.07% | 0 | 245,183 | 12 |
South Caro | 1/21/2012 | 168,152 | 27.86% | 2 | - | 244,133 | 40.44% | 23 | 1 | 102,492 | 16.98% | 0 | - | 78,362 | 12.98% | 0 | - | 1,173 | 0.19% | 0 | 2,534 | 0.42% | 0 | 491 | 0.08% | 0 | 6,326 | 1.05% | 0 | 603,663 | 25 |
Florida | 1/31/2012 | 776,059 | 46.44% | 50 | 2 | 534,040 | 31.96% | 0 | - | 223,208 | 13.36% | 0 | - | 117,410 | 7.03% | 0 | - | 6,199 | 0.37% | 0 | 6,773 | 0.41% | 0 | 3,967 | 0.24% | 0 | 3,492 | 0.21% | 0 | 1,671,148 | 50 |
Nevada | 2/4/2012 | 16,486 | 50.12% | 14 | 3 | 6,956 | 21.15% | 6 | - | 3,277 | 9.96% | 3 | - | 6,175 | 18.77% | 5 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 32,894 | 28 |
Main | 2,190 | 39.65% | 9 | 4 | 349 | 6.32% | 0 | - | 989 | 17.90% | 3 | - | 1,996 | 36.13% | 7 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 5,524 | 19 | |
Colorado | 2/7/2012 | 22,875 | 35.00% | 13 | - | 8,394 | 12.84% | 1 | - | 26,372 | 40.35% | 17 | 2 | 7,713 | 11.80% | 1 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 65,354 | 32 |
Minnesota | 8,096 | 16.97% | 2 | - | 5,134 | 10.76% | 1 | - | 21,436 | 44.94% | 25 | 3 | 13,030 | 27.32% | 9 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 47,696 | 14 | |
Missouri | 63,826 | 26.24% | 0 | - | 9,859 | 4.05% | 0 | - | 138,957 | 57.12% | 0 | 4 | 30,641 | 12.59% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 243,283 | 0 | |
Arizona | 2/28/2012 | 216,805 | 47.99% | 29 | 5 | 74,110 | 16.40% | 0 | - | 122,088 | 27.03% | 0 | - | 38,753 | 8.58% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 451,756 | 29 |
Michigan | 409,899 | 42.34% | 16 | 6 | 65,016 | 6.72% | 0 | - | 377,521 | 38.99% | 14 | - | 115,712 | 11.95% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 968,148 | 30 | |
Washington | 3/3/2012 | 19,111 | 37.65% | 30 | 7 | 5,221 | 10.28% | 0 | - | 12,089 | 23.81% | 5 | - | 12,594 | 24.81% | 5 | - | 924 | 1.82% | 0 | 437 | 0.86% | 0 | 198 | 0.39% | 0 | 190 | 0.37% | 0 | 50,764 | 40 |
Wyoming | 822 | 38.99% | 10 | 8 | 165 | 7.83% | 1 | - | 673 | 31.93% | 9 | - | 439 | 20.83% | 6 | - | 3 | 0.14% | 0 | 2 | 0.09% | 0 | 2 | 0.09% | 0 | 2 | 0.09% | 0 | 2,108 | 26 | |
Alaska | 3/6/2012 | 4,285 | 32.52% | 8 | 9 | 1,856 | 14.09% | 3 | - | 3,860 | 29.30% | 7 | - | 3,175 | 24.10% | 6 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 13,176 | 24 |
Georgia | S | 225,926 | 25.18% | 15 | - | 417,364 | 47.81% | 47 | 2 | 172,473 | 19.76% | 10 | - | 57,125 | 6.54% | 4 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 872,888 | 76 |
Idaho | u | 27,514 | 61.61% | 32 | 10 | 940 | 2.11% | 0 | - | 8,115 | 18.17% | 0 | - | 8,086 | 18.11% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 44,655 | 32 |
Massachusetts | p | 260,509 | 73.29% | 41 | 11 | 16,756 | 4.71% | 0 | - | 43,6114 | 12.27% | 0 | - | 34,575 | 9.735 | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 355,455 | 41 |
N. Dakota | e | 2,691 | 23.71% | 7 | - | 961 | 8.48% | 2 | - | 4,510 | 39.74% | 11 | 5 | 3,186 | 28.07% | 8 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 11,349 | 28 |
Ohio | r | 453,927 | 38.93% | 32 | 12 | 174,606 | 14.78% | 10 | - | 441,908 | 37.42% | 20 | - | 110,633 | 9.37% | 4 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 1,181,074 | 66 |
Oklahoma | 80,291 | 28.34% | 13 | - | 78,686 | 27.77% | 13 | - | 96,759 | 34.15% | 14 | 6 | 27,572 | 9.73% | 13 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 283,208 | 43 | |
Tennessee | T | 153,889 | 28.46% | 18 | - | 132,142 | 24.43% | 12 | - | 204,978 | 37.90% | 26 | 7 | 49,782 | 9.21% | 2 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 540,791 | 58 |
Vermont | u | 22,533 | 41.01% | 9 | 13 | 4,606 | 8.39% | 0 | - | 13,401 | 24.39% | 4 | - | 14,407 | 26.22% | 4 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 54,949 | 17 |
Virginia | e | 158,050 | 59.52% | 44 | 14 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 107,470 | 40.48% | 5 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 265,520 | 49 |
Guam | 3/10/2012 | 215 | 100% | 9 | 15 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 215 | 9 |
Marianna Is | 738 | 87.03% | 9 | 16 | 29 | 3.42% | 0 | - | 27 | 3.18% | 0 | - | 54 | 6.37% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 848 | 9 | |
Virgin Is | 132 | 46.32% | 7 | 17 | 18 | 6.32% | 0 | - | 23 | 8.07% | 0 | - | 112 | 39.30% | 1 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 848 | 8 | |
Kansas | 6,250 | 21.11% | 7 | - | 4,298 | 14.52% | 0 | - | 15,290 | 51.65% | 33 | 8 | 3,767 | 12.72% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 29,605 | 40 | |
Alabama | 3/13/2012 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 50 |
Am Somoa | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 9 | |
Hawaii | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 20 | |
Mississippi | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 40 | |
Missouri | 3/17/2012 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 52 |
Puerto Rico | 3/18/2024 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 23 |
Illinois | 3/20/2012 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 69 |
Louisiana | 3/24/2012 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 46 |
DC | 4/3/2012 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 19 |
Maryland | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 37 | |
Wisconsin | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 42 | |
Conn | 4/24/2012 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 28 |
Deleware | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 17 | |
New York | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 95 | |
Pennsylvania | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 72 | |
Rhode Il | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 28 | |
At large Del's | 29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
TOTALS | 3,228,677 | 39.55% | 471 | 17 | 1,825,093 | 22.36% | 125 | 2 | 2,087,261 | 25.57% | 208 | 8 | 925,677 | 11.34% | 89 | 0 | 50,821 | 0.62% | 2 | 24,067 | 0.29% | 0 | 11,054 | 0.13% | 0 | 10,228 | 0.13% | 0 | 8,162,878 | 896 | |
To Date % of | Delegates | Romney | 53% | Gingrich | 14% | Santorum | 23% | Paul | 10% | Huntsman | 0.22% | Perry | 0% | Bachman | 0% | Cain | 0% |
But very close could easily translate into an out and out win, whereas now, Romney is using the split conservative vote to engineer and head for a possible outright nomination.
I hope after Tuesday's vote, particularly if Newt does not win both races, that the two of them will get together and work something out.
That is way I love MS. We vote on election day, not that early voting crap that draws it out. If you want to matter you go that day. I’m voting Newt and Ross in MS1. Nunnelee is Boehner’s lap dog.
We ALL need luck these days and thank you.
LLS
I am voting for any TEA Party challenger to wicker and palazzo and I am voting for Newt. Good luck!
LLS
It’s time to vote strategically to stop Romney.
That means voting for the consevative in each state who’s closest to defeating Romney, regardless of whether one might perefer the other conservative in a two man race between Gingrich and Santorum. Santorum was leading here in Tennessee; hence, I votd for him, have given his campaign $200, and have a Santorum sticker on my vehicle. However, tomorrow I’d vote for Newt if I lived in either Alabama or Misissippi just to stop Romney, and do it because Newt’s leading Santorum in those two states.
I don’t get this at all. The south is generally quite conservative. Romney should be in the single digits all over the south.
PPP tweeted...
Gingrich and Santorum are both much more popular than Romney in AL and MS
But Romney has chance to win in AL and MS because Newt and Rick are splitting ‘very conservative’ vote almost equally
IL, PA and WV are direct delegate elections. Therefore they should be calculated as winner-take-all by district. Whichever delegates get the most votes in each district will win that district and the others will get nothing.
If Santorum’s delegates get 35% of the vote, as long as the other 3 guys get lower votes, he gets all 3 delegates for that district. Technically a voter could split their vote and vote for 1 Santorum delegate, 1 Romney delegate, 1 Newt delegate, but I doubt that’s going to happen. That’s the only way a district could come out not winner-take-all in those states.
If there is a sole conservative non-Romney candidate who get >50% votes, Romney will get zero delegate in WTA districts. Splitting votes between Sant and Newt, they allow Rom to get 1/3 of votes and delegates while he should get none.
Depressing. There is no difference between Romney and Obama.
The Enemy always allow us suckers to choose the bad and the bad-der and we think we had a choice to choose between Republican or Democrat!
They heard Romney is severely conservative. And they probably don't realize their party machine is steering them down the RINO highway.
BTTT for prayer...
Easy answer: people everywhere like to vote for "the winner." And shall the southerners too if these polls are correct.
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