Skip to comments.GOP Race: The Slog to 1,144: So Far, Demographics Trumps Momentum
Posted on 03/13/2012 11:21:54 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
On Friday I suggested that Mitt Romney would have a long slog to reach 1,144 delegates, and that he might not get there by the end of the primary calendar. While some readers were thrilled by this suggestion, others were much less ecstatic.
Probably the biggest source of pushback was my assumption that there wouldn’t be a huge movement toward Romney -- in other words, that he wouldn’t gather momentum in the weeks and months ahead. Indeed, when making my predictions of how things would play out in a particular state, I used prior election outcomes from states with similar demographic profiles as proxies.
Obviously, if Romney does capture some momentum, I’ve made a poor assumption. And I actually do think there’s a reasonable chance that current voting trends won’t hold. But, critically, so far we’ve seen no actual evidence of a stampede toward Romney. In fact, his standing in the RCP Average has declined a bit since Super Tuesday.
We can look at this relative stability another way. First, let’s examine the race geographically, updating a map I made earlier:
As you can see, Romney has done well in the Northeast and Mountain West, while Rick Santorum has performed well on the Great Plains (you can almost see where the Front Range cuts across Colorado and Wyoming in the Santorum/Romney divide). Newt Gingrich has done well in the Deep South. In the Midwest, Santorum has performed well in the rural areas, while Romney has attracted voters in the urban areas (in Ohio, you can see exactly where the Cleveland/Akron, Cincinnati/Dayton, and Columbus metro areas are located).
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Looks familiar. Al Gore won the popular vote in 200 by taking urban centers. Remember the red-blue map? Romney is following the same path.
Many seniors are comfortable with Romney. They see him as the “electable” and seniors are risk adverse. This may be his advantage. Look at Florida. The red neck counties went red. The older more populated counties for Romney.
I think California may matter. The republican senior population may not dominate as much there.