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Romney’s Delegate Lead Grows
The Washington Post ^ | March 14, 2012 | Aaron Blake

Posted on 03/14/2012 8:40:27 AM PDT by Iron Munro

Despite his losses in the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, Mitt Romney appears to have expanded his delegate lead on Tuesday.

The most recent projections from AP show Rick Santorum took 31 delegates from Alabama and Mississippi, while Newt Gingrich took 24 delegates and Romney got 23

But this morning, Romney was projected to win all nine delegates from American Samoa’s caucuses, and he also won the Hawaii caucuses by a large margin.

AP projections show Romney beat Santorum 18 delegates to four in those jurisdictions.

So, as of this morning, Romney has won 41 delegates from Tuesday’s contests, compared to 35 for Santorum, thereby expanding Romney’s delegate lead. (Gingrich is projected to have won 24 delegates.)

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: crybabysantorum; delegates; kenyanbornmuzzie; mittromney; newt4romney; newtgingrich; primaryelection; proillegalssantorum; prounionssantorum; ricksantorum; romney; rossperot; santorum4biglabor; santorum4romney; santorum4specter; serialphilanderer; sourgingrichgrapes; sovote4themuslim; stayhomeandsulk; vote4obama
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Current Delegate Counts:

Romney - 494

Santorum - 251

Gingrich - 131

Paul - 48

1 posted on 03/14/2012 8:40:39 AM PDT by Iron Munro
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To: Iron Munro

But of course the Not-Romney delegate count is going up faster than the Romney delegate count. That’s the key. That’s why there will be a brokered convention.


2 posted on 03/14/2012 8:46:16 AM PDT by agere_contra ("Debt is the foundation of destruction" : Sarah Palin.)
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To: Iron Munro

Romney needs to win about 46% of the outstanding delegates to win the nomination outright.

Santorum needs about 64%.

Newt, 72%.


3 posted on 03/14/2012 8:54:20 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods (....The days are long, but the years are short.....)
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To: Iron Munro

Those delegates are not going to translate into votes for Romney if he gets the nomination. I believe a conservative 3rd party candidate will rise up.


4 posted on 03/14/2012 9:03:58 AM PDT by stars & stripes forever (Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord!)
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To: SaxxonWoods

Carrying on, the not-Romneys must win 52% of the remaining delegates to stop Romney from taking the homination outright.


5 posted on 03/14/2012 9:06:10 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods (....The days are long, but the years are short.....)
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To: SaxxonWoods

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2857771/posts?page=4#4

Looking at states yet to hold primaries, such as IL, PA, NY, CA, DC, MD, CT, DE, RI, OR, UT etc 46% is not impossible.

My guess is Newt will be forced to drop out or just limp along till end. You know the old adage, candidates do not quit, they just run out of money.


6 posted on 03/14/2012 9:06:56 AM PDT by entropy12 (Republicans do not hate, that is a monopoly of democrats.)
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To: stars & stripes forever
I believe a conservative 3rd party candidate will rise up.

I don't believe that. I hope it's true, but I believe that the party leadership would rather offend the conservative base and guarantee an insider wins (even if that insider is more likely to be Obama) than risk having a nominee who will genuinely cut government and risk cutting their power.

7 posted on 03/14/2012 9:07:43 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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To: Iron Munro

Romney is toast!

He can’t win the nomination outright before the end of the Primaries.

As the perception of his weakness as a candidate and his inability to win outright grows through the rest of the primaries in spite of the support of his undeclare Super-PAC FauxNews, he will continue to lose delegates to both Santorum and Gingrich.

This is sweet!


8 posted on 03/14/2012 9:08:11 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: entropy12
Looking at states yet to hold primaries, such as IL, PA, NY, CA, DC, MD, CT, DE, RI, OR, UT etc 46% is not impossible.

Maybe not impossible, but not probable and as the reality sinks into the conservative base that a win by Romney is neither inevitable or probable based on his continual losses, Romney will have a higher and higher mountain to climb as the rest of the Primaries unfold.

Another factor to factor in, is that the base in the states that have already held their primaries and who had to endure the endless and ugly and dishonest negative ad blitzes by Romney, will be talking to their friends and families in other states that have not held their primary.

Romney's only effective weapon in this campaign, false advertising, will become less and less effective.

Romney's chances are looking bleak!
9 posted on 03/14/2012 9:13:17 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: Iron Munro

Last night was proof that Conservatives will NOT vote for Romney, and he is dead in the General without their support.

He can win the Nomination, but he has no shot in the General.


10 posted on 03/14/2012 9:14:41 AM PDT by dfwgator (Don't wake up in a roadside ditch. Get rid of Romney.)
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To: Iron Munro

Did Romney take Outer Mongolia too?


11 posted on 03/14/2012 9:15:34 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: SaxxonWoods
Romney needs to win about 46% of the outstanding delegates to win the nomination outright.

Out of your three statistics you posted, that is the most telling.

Romney, correct me if I am wrong, has only been able to crack the 40% mark in liberal states and states with extremely small delegate counts. As long as both Newt and Santorum stay in the race, that 46% Romney needs is almost impossible.

Can you say Brokered Convention?

I can, and they truly sweet words!

Anything that weakens and/or destroys the candidacy of Mitt Romney is a wonderful thing to behold!
12 posted on 03/14/2012 9:16:15 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: SaxxonWoods

You are wrong about that, Santorum needs 67% where your 3% error is actually significant, comparing the demographics of the remaining states.


13 posted on 03/14/2012 9:18:28 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: entropy12
Yours is one of the saner predictions on here. Like it or not the odds are very high that Romney is going to hit this number, especially with NY and CA still on the list. Utah and/or Oregon will put him over the top and he will end up as the candidate. Although it's fun to speculate and discuss about brokered conventions, 3rd party candidates getting into the race late, etc., the reality is that those things have an extremely slim chance of happening. I'm not saying that everyone here has to like a Romney candidacy, but you can't ignore the reality that he in all likelihood will get the needed number of candidates.
14 posted on 03/14/2012 9:19:25 AM PDT by aegiscg47
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To: Iron Munro

Romney will be the nominee if both Newt and Rick stay in the race. There is no avoiding it. The only way to beat him is for a single conservative to remain in the race and to outperform Romney in the MANY winner-take-all states and districts coming up. That is the only way Newt and Rick can accumulate enough delegates together that they will outnumber Romney’s and Paul’s.

If they both stay in, Romney has a chance to just limp over the 1,144 threshold, or will almost definitely be close enough that Paul’s delegates can put him over the top.

Newt and Rick have handed him delegates he could have been denied by vote-splitting in Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Ohio, and Michigan. Almost THREE TIMES that many upcoming states have similar winner-take-all rules. The primaries were set up that early states would be mostly proportional, but later states are the opposite.

Romney will amass more delegates in the following states in a 3-man race while he could be virtually shut out of many in a 2-man race. A 2-man race denies him 100-200 more delegates by making sure he never gets a plurality when Newt and Rick’s combined votes could have beaten him and by sometimes beating him by 50%. THIS WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE in denying him the nomination. It’s that close.

Illinois
Wisconsin
Maryland
New York
Pennsylvania
Connecticut
Delaware
West Virginia
Texas
California
New Jersey


15 posted on 03/14/2012 9:21:02 AM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: SoConPubbie

All depends on how much money Santorum can muster. My best guess is we will have a nominee by the UT primary.


16 posted on 03/14/2012 9:22:10 AM PDT by entropy12 (Republicans do not hate, that is a monopoly of democrats.)
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To: stars & stripes forever

I don’t think that a third party is the answer. I think that this race has taught the Tea Party that if we want our views represented, we need our own national organization, including funding and volunteers. Just think where either Santorum or Gingrich would be with such an organization-and only a fraction of Mitten’s money.


17 posted on 03/14/2012 9:24:28 AM PDT by tanuki (Left-wing Revolution: show biz for boring people.)
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To: aegiscg47; entropy12
Yours is one of the saner predictions on here. Like it or not the odds are very high that Romney is going to hit this number, especially with NY and CA still on the list. Utah and/or Oregon will put him over the top and he will end up as the candidate. Although it's fun to speculate and discuss about brokered conventions, 3rd party candidates getting into the race late, etc., the reality is that those things have an extremely slim chance of happening. I'm not saying that everyone here has to like a Romney candidacy, but you can't ignore the reality that he in all likelihood will get the needed number of candidates.

Please Stop!

I can't quit laughing!

Mitt Romney, needing 46% of the votes in the rest of the remaining Primaries, while still facing two conservatives, is somehow going to magically win that number of votes, even after he has only been able to break that % in extremely small states or protectorates where he has essentially been uncontested?

Futhermore, since a large portion of those voting for him are doing so under the mistaken perception that his is the most electable, you don't see that perception knocked to the ground in the minds of future primary voters after a string of defeats by both Santorum and Gingrich? You don't think that as the Primaries go forward, his "cloak" of invicibility isn't just showing more holes, but is in tatters?

Tell me you can't be that clueless, can you?
18 posted on 03/14/2012 9:24:28 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: entropy12
All depends on how much money Santorum can muster. My best guess is we will have a nominee by the UT primary.

Not a chance!

Not even if all the planets aligned for Mitt Romney.

His loss in both Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Tennessee, etc, has completely sunk Romney's campaign.

He will not recover.
19 posted on 03/14/2012 9:26:25 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: SoConPubbie

It’s ironic!

Romney does better with Democrats and Moderates than he does against Conservatives. His hard “sell” that his is conservative, has wound up on deaf ears. I was watching him claim that he, is the only candidate who knows how to “work with both sides, to come to a mutual solution.” This is an indication of what to expect with Romney. (Especially, heavy for the “other” side.)


20 posted on 03/14/2012 9:29:06 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: SoConPubbie; aegiscg47

Only thing certain is death & taxes. So obviously it is not 100% certain who will be the nominee. There are some very large and expensive states coming up. Grassroots won’t cut it. Must have millions of $$ to put ads on TV & radio. CA & NY are prohibitively expensive and not any where as conservative as MS & AL. Santorum has one large donor to fund his super pack. If that donor shells out more millions, we could go into brokered convention. If not, Romney has a good chance to get 1144 after Utah.


21 posted on 03/14/2012 9:34:11 AM PDT by entropy12 (Republicans do not hate, that is a monopoly of democrats.)
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To: entropy12
Only thing certain is death & taxes. So obviously it is not 100% certain who will be the nominee. There are some very large and expensive states coming up. Grassroots won’t cut it. Must have millions of $$ to put ads on TV & radio. CA & NY are prohibitively expensive and not any where as conservative as MS & AL. Santorum has one large donor to fund his super pack. If that donor shells out more millions, we could go into brokered convention. If not, Romney has a good chance to get 1144 after Utah.

Won't matter.

He still won't get 46% of the remaining votes.

You're dreaming if you think he will.

The base is waking up to the facts of Romney's Progressive Liberal record and the fact that he is both unelectable in the general election as a result of that record and that he is not inevitable.

Romney is toast!
22 posted on 03/14/2012 9:38:21 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: SoConPubbie

Wrong, Romney had about 53% of the delegates as of last week even with only 39% of the vote. It gets easier for him to accumulate more in an imbalanced fashion since many more states will now be winner-take-all, including Puerto Rico, D.C., Utah, Delaware, etc. No predictions can now be made without an extremely careful state-by-state analysis analyzing every single rule in detail. The delegates needed to deny him the nomination are too close now. Nothing but a game-changer like Newt or Rick dropping out or Mitt getting indicted for something can ensure a Romney loss.


23 posted on 03/14/2012 9:39:49 AM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Exit polls in Michigan (open primary) show that Santorum received many more democrat votes than any other candidate.


24 posted on 03/14/2012 9:40:29 AM PDT by entropy12 (Republicans do not hate, that is a monopoly of democrats.)
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To: entropy12

Futhermore, he needs 46% of the remaining vote to win the nomination outright, he won’t get 46% of the remaining vote and each primary he does not get 46% of the vote, that percentage only goes higher.

It is not a static percentage as times goes on.

So after he loses Texas and a number of other states, and wins several in the 30% range, the percentage of votes he needs to win in the remaining states will be above 55% and probably closer to 60%.

Like I said, he can’t win outright.


25 posted on 03/14/2012 9:45:27 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: Iron Munro

Too bad he only can get about 1/3 of the vote.

Go Newt!


26 posted on 03/14/2012 9:46:55 AM PDT by Flintlock (Photo ID for ALL VOTING. Let our dead rest in peace.)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Did the calc again and I come up with Santorum needing to win 65% of remaining delegates to win the nomination. Please explain your take on “demographics of the remaining states.”

I’m not pushing a candidate here, just trying to understand the logistics of the battle. It looks like the big question revolves around the ability of Newt and/or Santorum to stay in the race. Money in other words.


27 posted on 03/14/2012 9:47:32 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods (....The days are long, but the years are short.....)
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To: SaxxonWoods

“the not-Romneys must win 52% of the remaining delegates to stop Romney from taking the homination outright.”

Right. And if that happens, you can take it to the bank that Santorum will trade his delegates for the VP spot on Romney’s ticket.

That’s the game he’s playing. He knows he doesn’t stand a chance of winning the nomination in a contested convention.


28 posted on 03/14/2012 9:47:46 AM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
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To: Iron Munro

That’s bad news about American Samoa, because you know the old saying: “As goes American Samoa, so goes the nation...”

...


29 posted on 03/14/2012 9:48:48 AM PDT by WayneS (Comments now include 25% more sarcasm for no additional charge...)
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To: stars & stripes forever
I believe a conservative 3rd party candidate will rise up.

And as a result, Obama will get 4 more years in his quest to destroy American, and appoint one or possibly two more commie Supreme Court justices.
30 posted on 03/14/2012 9:49:13 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: agere_contra
So, as of this morning, Romney has won 41 delegates from Tuesday’s contests, compared to 35 for Santorum, thereby expanding Romney’s delegate lead. (Gingrich is projected to have won 24 delegates.)
Interesting that Wapo can't do the basic math:

41 Romney delegates vs. (35+24)=59 non-Romney delegates

31 posted on 03/14/2012 9:51:53 AM PDT by samtheman
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To: SaxxonWoods

The endgame at this point is to keep Romney from 1,144 delegates and force a contested, if not brokered, convention.


32 posted on 03/14/2012 9:53:40 AM PDT by Lexinom
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To: Signalman; stars & stripes forever
"I believe a conservative 3rd party candidate will rise up."

"And as a result, Obama will get 4 more years in his quest to destroy American, and appoint one or possibly two more commie Supreme Court justices."

The "war" is coming either way. If the American people are still so stupid to vote barry or mittens, perhaps we deserve to be destroyed, as is, so we can rebuild.

I'm still not sure if we are beyond a "point of no return". Time will tell.

33 posted on 03/14/2012 9:58:50 AM PDT by NoGrayZone (Jim "Firebrand" Robinson endorses Newt...with EPIC call to action!!)
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To: JediJones

Are you sure Jedi? There are still big states to come that are not winner take all. For instance, how can Rick or Newt singlehandedly prevent Romney from getting any delegates in California? That’s kind of naive IMO.


34 posted on 03/14/2012 9:58:50 AM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: SoConPubbie

“So after he loses Texas and a number of other states, and wins several in the 30% range”

Most of the remaining races are winner-take-all and there are still 1,358 delegates to be won.

If you just look at California, New York and New Jersey, there are 317 delegates available and they will not be awarded proportionally.

Your math just doesn’t add up.


35 posted on 03/14/2012 9:59:03 AM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
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To: Iron Munro

hey willardbots...nah,nah,nah,nah,nah..nah..[sticks out tongue]


36 posted on 03/14/2012 10:00:05 AM PDT by Leep (Dueling tag lines=don't worry,you'll be a vegetable guy soon<>It's gonna be a Newt day!)
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To: JediJones
Wrong, Romney had about 53% of the delegates as of last week even with only 39% of the vote. It gets easier for him to accumulate more in an imbalanced fashion since many more states will now be winner-take-all, including Puerto Rico, D.C., Utah, Delaware, etc. No predictions can now be made without an extremely careful state-by-state analysis analyzing every single rule in detail. The delegates needed to deny him the nomination are too close now. Nothing but a game-changer like Newt or Rick dropping out or Mitt getting indicted for something can ensure a Romney loss.

The following remaining states are proportional:

1. Louisiana
2. Conneticut
3. New York
4. Pennsylvania
5. Rhode Island
6. North Carolina
7. West Virginia
8. Oregon
9. Arkansas
10. Kentucky
11. Texas
12. New Mexico
13. South Dakota


The following are settled at a State Convention:

1. Illinois
2. Missouri
3. Indiana
4. Nebraska
5. Montana


The following are Winner-take-all:

1. Puerto Rico
2. Maryland
3. Washington D.C.
4. Wisconsin
5. Delaware
6. California
7. New Jersey
8. Utah


So, out of the 26 primaries left, only 8 are winner-take-all, and many of those are very small in total number of delegates.
37 posted on 03/14/2012 10:00:33 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: BarnacleCenturion

See post #37.

Your math does not add up.


38 posted on 03/14/2012 10:01:18 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: SoConPubbie

I’m sure obummer thinks it’s sweet too. We can’t even get a candidate strong enough to win? I doubt he’s too worried about his sucky poll numbers. We needed a strong candidate. The Communists and Marxists didn’t come this close only to lose it all in 2012 and us having no strong candidate is not a good thing.


39 posted on 03/14/2012 10:04:23 AM PDT by mojitojoe (American by birth. Southern by the grace of God. Conservative by reason and logic.)
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To: SoConPubbie; JediJones; BarnacleCenturion

The total delegate count for the remaining 8 primaries that are Winner-Take-All is 388.

Romney can’t win.

Both Newt and Rick need to stay in the race, primarily, to keep Rick honest and in the game to the end.


40 posted on 03/14/2012 10:05:21 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: mojitojoe
I’m sure obummer thinks it’s sweet too. We can’t even get a candidate strong enough to win? I doubt he’s too worried about his sucky poll numbers. We needed a strong candidate. The Communists and Marxists didn’t come this close only to lose it all in 2012 and us having no strong candidate is not a good thing.

Probably, but that's not my problem as a conservative.

You're right, we needed a strong candidate, Romney wasn't/isn't it, he will lose badly, any conservative will do better than Romney against Obama.
41 posted on 03/14/2012 10:07:26 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: SaxxonWoods

Romney thus far has won 52% of the delegates. If he continues on that track, he will win the nomination.

And, unless the splitting of the vote and thereby, because of the rules, the delegates, stop, he will do so.

As a reult of splitting the conservative vote into two smaller factions, Romney is able, with very disciplined campaigning where he gets the most delegate for his popular votes, to gain delegates at a greater proportion to his popular vote.

And that is exactly what he has been doing. He has 38.5% of the popular vote (12 point ahead of Santorum, but well behind Santorum and Newt combined). But, with that 38.5% of the popular vote, he has been able to win 52% of the delegates and thus is on the path to getting nominated.

See the following site for all the details and my resulting analysis:

The GOP Primary Tracker Site
http://www.jeffhead.com/GOPTracker.htm


42 posted on 03/14/2012 10:10:04 AM PDT by Jeff Head (Liberty is not free. Never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: SoConPubbie; JediJones

I think SoCon has it right Jedi. I’m not an expert, but it looks as though there’s only 8 WTA states, and they seem relatively small with respect to delegates. If Newt or Rick were to drop out Romney will get a good number of delegates in big states like California.


43 posted on 03/14/2012 10:12:43 AM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: dfwgator

dfwgator wrote:
<<
Last night was proof that Conservatives will NOT vote for Romney, and he is dead in the General without their support.

He can win the Nomination, but he has no shot in the General.
>>

**************************************************************

Exactly! The GOP establishment has taken its conservative base for granted for WAY too long and we’re simply not going to accept being told to support their hand-picked squishy milquetoast moderate candidates any longer.


44 posted on 03/14/2012 10:13:58 AM PDT by DestroyLiberalism
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To: Jeff Head

Thank you.


45 posted on 03/14/2012 10:15:18 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods (....The days are long, but the years are short.....)
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To: Pollster1

“I believe that the party leadership would rather offend the conservative base and guarantee an insider wins (even if that insider is more likely to be Obama) than risk having a nominee who will genuinely cut government and risk cutting their power.”

I agree. The institutional GOP’s efforts for the past year and a half have been aimed towards neutralizing the Tea Party rather than the defeating Democrats or Democrat policy.


46 posted on 03/14/2012 10:16:08 AM PDT by Psalm 144 ("I think we ought to listen to Alinsky." - Governor G. Romney, father of Bishop Willard M. Romney.)
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To: Jeff Head

“Romney thus far has won 52% of the delegates. If he continues on that track, he will win the nomination.”

Take out Virginia, where Newt and Rick weren’t even on the ballot and he went head-to-head with Uncle Nutso, and what percentage has Mittens won? I think about 10% of Mittens’ total delegates are from that farce.


47 posted on 03/14/2012 10:17:24 AM PDT by order66.exe
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To: SoConPubbie

I thought California was WTA by congressional district? Maybe I don’t understand what that means. What does that mean?


48 posted on 03/14/2012 10:17:35 AM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: DestroyLiberalism

“Exactly! The GOP establishment has taken its conservative base for granted for WAY too long and we’re simply not going to accept being told to support their hand-picked squishy milquetoast moderate candidates any longer.”

I disagree only in that Bishop Willard is not a moderate. His record is leftist. He governed further to the left than Bill Clinton. Incredible, but true.


49 posted on 03/14/2012 10:17:57 AM PDT by Psalm 144 ("I think we ought to listen to Alinsky." - Governor G. Romney, father of Bishop Willard M. Romney.)
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To: Jeff Head
Romney thus far has won 52% of the delegates. If he continues on that track, he will win the nomination.

Respectfully, you are incorrect.

1. Currently he needs 46% of the remaining delagates to win the nomination outright.
2. As he loses more and more of the remaining non-Winner-Take-All states or simply wins in the 20% to 30% range, that number will climb to close to 60%
3. There are only 8 winner-take-all state primaries left with only 388 delegates combined.
4. As the false perception that Romney is both inevitable and the only one that can win wears off, and it is wearing off with his string of recent losses, this will put pressure on his ability to win big in the rest of the races.
5. Both Newt and Rick need to stay in the race in order to ensure that all delegates that can be taken away from Mitt can be taken away. Additionally, Newt needs to stay in the race to ensure that Rick does not pre-maturely give up and throw the election to Mitt.

Romney can't win, not outright, he'll have to convince everyone at a brokered convention.
50 posted on 03/14/2012 10:19:16 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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