Posted on 03/14/2012 8:40:27 AM PDT by Iron Munro
Despite his losses in the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, Mitt Romney appears to have expanded his delegate lead on Tuesday.
The most recent projections from AP show Rick Santorum took 31 delegates from Alabama and Mississippi, while Newt Gingrich took 24 delegates and Romney got 23
But this morning, Romney was projected to win all nine delegates from American Samoa’s caucuses, and he also won the Hawaii caucuses by a large margin.
AP projections show Romney beat Santorum 18 delegates to four in those jurisdictions.
So, as of this morning, Romney has won 41 delegates from Tuesday’s contests, compared to 35 for Santorum, thereby expanding Romney’s delegate lead. (Gingrich is projected to have won 24 delegates.)
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012
Looking at how future primaries are structured, you will observe there are many states with WTA-CD & WTA-AL. Which means the winner in each congressional district takes all delegates. And the At Large delegates also win with a simple majority. With 4 candidates in the race one does not need 46% or even 40% to win all delegates, just 30% can win all delegates in a district if the other 3 candidates divide the other 70% with no one beating the 30%. Also observe the winner take all states of PR, DC & UT where one needs a simple majority to win all delegates.
And don’t be surprised if Florida’s -50 penalized delegates suddenly reappear in the Romney column...
most of the above states are NE Romney states, where he wins either a 2 or 3 man race. Rick might take his home state of PA, but remember he lost his re-election there by 18 points.
Rick could win in TX, WV and WI.
But, the math shows improbable path to Rick reaching 1144.
The goal must be to stop Mitt from getting to 1144 before the convention.
Yep, more proof that the fix was in all along
“Futhermore, he needs 46% of the remaining vote to win the nomination outright, he won’t get 46% of the remaining vote and each primary he does not get 46% of the vote, that percentage only goes higher.”
Not correct. If Newt stays in the race we have 4 candidates dividing the votes since Dr. Paul will not drop out. There are a ton of states coming up where delegates are awarded by WTA-CD. Which means winner takes all by congressional district. Assume Paul gets 10%, Newt gets 25%. That leaves 65% divided between Santorum & Romney. Which means 33% wins ALL delegates in that district.
Just wait until Romney wins winner-take-all states like Puerto Rico (23), Maryland (37 delegates), DC (19), Delaware (17), California (172), New Jersey (50), and Utah (40). [Not sure if he’ll win winner-take-all Wisconsin (42).] Those wins add up to 358 more delegates. If he wins those and loses Wisconsin, Romney only need 33% of the remaining from the proportional states.
RCP has it listed incorrectly then.
Romney got about 40% of the delegates yesterday and that was one of his bad showings.
1. Puerto Rico
2. Maryland
3. Washington D.C.
4. Wisconsin
5. Delaware
6. California
7. New Jersey
8. Utah
and Romney is ahead in all the above, winner take all states. Rick's best chance is WI with a slim chance at CA if he has the momentum at that time.
Romney must be denied reaching 1144 by being limited to gaining fewer delegates in the proportional states since Mitt has such an advantage in the winner take all states.
We just found out that California is a Congressional District WTA, which in effect means it is proportional as well.
Romney can win the nomination.
He’s dead in the water.
Sorry that should have read:
Romney CAN’T WIN the nomination.
Agreed, Romney is not the best candidate against Obama. That would be Newt. I do not feel comfortable with Santorum going in debates with Obama. Obama will suck him in a religious & contraception issues in debates and Santorum will jump in the trap.
However Santorum would make a better president than Romney.
I thought we were discussing probabilities of who might win nomination, NOT who we WANT & WISH to win.
It will be a controlled convention and the liberals of the GOP will not allow a conservative to obtain the nomination. We will have a liberal lackey shoved down our throats with a conservative VP slot bone tossed to us in hope of keeping conservatives on the reservation. The fix is in.
Rick needs to win his home state, Newt and Mitt won their home states by large margins. However, Romney will still end up with delegates from PA
Glad that CA is proportional. Romney has a lot of money to spend on negative ads in CA. He needs to be denied delegates.
Don’t count Paul. He will give his delegates to Romney in exchange for either VP or some other impt job.
Pray he doesn’t get many more delegates.
The winner-take-all states are the big concern. Plus, Romney will take Calif and NY.
Santorum will get Penn and maybe Gingrich will get Tx, but his 2nd & 3rd place performances won’t make it easy for Perry to sell him.
Gingrich would have been formidable had he represented a solid south. Instead, he looks weak.
I think that folks are looking at how candidates can be defeated and Gingrich took it on the chin in Florida. Folks are afraid that will be repeated.
That's true, if Romney gets shut out - as in, he loses all 53 congressional districts. He'll probably win the majority of the districts plus the 10 at large delegates awarded to the overall winner. Worst case he gets 90 district delegates + 10. J.M.O.
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