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Romney’s Delegate Lead Grows
The Washington Post ^ | March 14, 2012 | Aaron Blake

Posted on 03/14/2012 8:40:27 AM PDT by Iron Munro

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To: mojitojoe
I’m sure obummer thinks it’s sweet too. We can’t even get a candidate strong enough to win? I doubt he’s too worried about his sucky poll numbers. We needed a strong candidate. The Communists and Marxists didn’t come this close only to lose it all in 2012 and us having no strong candidate is not a good thing.

Probably, but that's not my problem as a conservative.

You're right, we needed a strong candidate, Romney wasn't/isn't it, he will lose badly, any conservative will do better than Romney against Obama.
41 posted on 03/14/2012 10:07:26 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: SaxxonWoods

Romney thus far has won 52% of the delegates. If he continues on that track, he will win the nomination.

And, unless the splitting of the vote and thereby, because of the rules, the delegates, stop, he will do so.

As a reult of splitting the conservative vote into two smaller factions, Romney is able, with very disciplined campaigning where he gets the most delegate for his popular votes, to gain delegates at a greater proportion to his popular vote.

And that is exactly what he has been doing. He has 38.5% of the popular vote (12 point ahead of Santorum, but well behind Santorum and Newt combined). But, with that 38.5% of the popular vote, he has been able to win 52% of the delegates and thus is on the path to getting nominated.

See the following site for all the details and my resulting analysis:

The GOP Primary Tracker Site
http://www.jeffhead.com/GOPTracker.htm


42 posted on 03/14/2012 10:10:04 AM PDT by Jeff Head (Liberty is not free. Never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: SoConPubbie; JediJones

I think SoCon has it right Jedi. I’m not an expert, but it looks as though there’s only 8 WTA states, and they seem relatively small with respect to delegates. If Newt or Rick were to drop out Romney will get a good number of delegates in big states like California.


43 posted on 03/14/2012 10:12:43 AM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: dfwgator

dfwgator wrote:
<<
Last night was proof that Conservatives will NOT vote for Romney, and he is dead in the General without their support.

He can win the Nomination, but he has no shot in the General.
>>

**************************************************************

Exactly! The GOP establishment has taken its conservative base for granted for WAY too long and we’re simply not going to accept being told to support their hand-picked squishy milquetoast moderate candidates any longer.


44 posted on 03/14/2012 10:13:58 AM PDT by DestroyLiberalism
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To: Jeff Head

Thank you.


45 posted on 03/14/2012 10:15:18 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods (....The days are long, but the years are short.....)
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To: Pollster1

“I believe that the party leadership would rather offend the conservative base and guarantee an insider wins (even if that insider is more likely to be Obama) than risk having a nominee who will genuinely cut government and risk cutting their power.”

I agree. The institutional GOP’s efforts for the past year and a half have been aimed towards neutralizing the Tea Party rather than the defeating Democrats or Democrat policy.


46 posted on 03/14/2012 10:16:08 AM PDT by Psalm 144 ("I think we ought to listen to Alinsky." - Governor G. Romney, father of Bishop Willard M. Romney.)
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To: Jeff Head

“Romney thus far has won 52% of the delegates. If he continues on that track, he will win the nomination.”

Take out Virginia, where Newt and Rick weren’t even on the ballot and he went head-to-head with Uncle Nutso, and what percentage has Mittens won? I think about 10% of Mittens’ total delegates are from that farce.


47 posted on 03/14/2012 10:17:24 AM PDT by order66.exe
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To: SoConPubbie

I thought California was WTA by congressional district? Maybe I don’t understand what that means. What does that mean?


48 posted on 03/14/2012 10:17:35 AM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: DestroyLiberalism

“Exactly! The GOP establishment has taken its conservative base for granted for WAY too long and we’re simply not going to accept being told to support their hand-picked squishy milquetoast moderate candidates any longer.”

I disagree only in that Bishop Willard is not a moderate. His record is leftist. He governed further to the left than Bill Clinton. Incredible, but true.


49 posted on 03/14/2012 10:17:57 AM PDT by Psalm 144 ("I think we ought to listen to Alinsky." - Governor G. Romney, father of Bishop Willard M. Romney.)
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To: Jeff Head
Romney thus far has won 52% of the delegates. If he continues on that track, he will win the nomination.

Respectfully, you are incorrect.

1. Currently he needs 46% of the remaining delagates to win the nomination outright.
2. As he loses more and more of the remaining non-Winner-Take-All states or simply wins in the 20% to 30% range, that number will climb to close to 60%
3. There are only 8 winner-take-all state primaries left with only 388 delegates combined.
4. As the false perception that Romney is both inevitable and the only one that can win wears off, and it is wearing off with his string of recent losses, this will put pressure on his ability to win big in the rest of the races.
5. Both Newt and Rick need to stay in the race in order to ensure that all delegates that can be taken away from Mitt can be taken away. Additionally, Newt needs to stay in the race to ensure that Rick does not pre-maturely give up and throw the election to Mitt.

Romney can't win, not outright, he'll have to convince everyone at a brokered convention.
50 posted on 03/14/2012 10:19:16 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: trappedincanuckistan
I thought California was WTA by congressional district? Maybe I don’t understand what that means. What does that mean?

Let me check up on that one.
51 posted on 03/14/2012 10:20:09 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: Iron Munro
Gingrich Senior Advisor Randy Evans Explains Delegate Math
52 posted on 03/14/2012 10:20:47 AM PDT by Brown Deer (Pray for 0bama. Psalm 109:8)
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To: SoConPubbie

“Both Newt and Rick need to stay in the race, primarily, to keep Rick honest and in the game to the end.”

Interesting. I have very mixed feelings about Gingrich remaining in the race. This is the best rationale for doing so that I have seen.


53 posted on 03/14/2012 10:21:38 AM PDT by Psalm 144 ("I think we ought to listen to Alinsky." - Governor G. Romney, father of Bishop Willard M. Romney.)
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To: Jeff Head

I looked at your website.

Your math may or may not be right (i.e., Florida and others apportionment is not settled at this moment).

However, Your political acument is lacking: “With Gingrich’s “southern strategy” now in a shambles (He has won two (Georigia and South Carolina), Romney has won two (Florida and Virginia) and Santorum has won three (Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama)), the pressure on Gingrich to unite behind Santorum is going to grow in both strength and urgency. Seven southern states votes and Santorum is leading the pack with three and Romney and Gingrich with two each in the south.”

No-indeedy. Romney’s Florida and Virginia have not been “Southern” for a long, long time. They may have been part of the Confederacy, but their demographics belie their geographic positions. Romney cannot win in “the South”. Period.


54 posted on 03/14/2012 10:25:25 AM PDT by Nabber
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To: Iron Munro

They just need to keep Romney under 1,000 delegates

Losing Alabama and Mississippi is going to hurt his fundraising even more than it already is.

Gotta love it anytime he comes in 3rd


55 posted on 03/14/2012 10:28:39 AM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: trappedincanuckistan; Jeff Head; SaxxonWoods; JediJones
I thought California was WTA by congressional district? Maybe I don’t understand what that means. What does that mean?

You were so right!

Those paying attention may have caught the media stating how the Republican Party has moved away from a winner-take-all process for the 2012 Primary Elections. A more accurate statement is that the party has moved away from a statewide winner-take-all process. Instead, the Republicans have moved primary races towards either a statewide proportionate winner or a winner-take-all by congressional district, a scheme which usually still awards a few delegates to the broader statewide winner. And if you weren’t confused yet, just for fun, there are a few other states with some combination of both.

This makes it even more impossible for Mitt Romney to win outright.

I was under the assumption that California, with it's 169 delegates, was a STATE-WIDE Winner-Take-All primary, IT IS NOT!

It is a Congressional District Winner-Take-All primary, effectively making it a proportional state.
56 posted on 03/14/2012 10:30:14 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: SoConPubbie

I think the GOP bigwigs conceded 2012 before the primaries even started. I think Romney is the designated loser.


57 posted on 03/14/2012 10:33:20 AM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: SoConPubbie

That’s why it is so important for Newt and Rick to stay in. Both staying in denies Romney a larger % of delegates in big states like California than he would get if it was one on one. IMO anyway. As I said I’m not an expert, but it appears to me that the proportional states to come are more significant than the WTA states.


58 posted on 03/14/2012 10:35:21 AM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: order66.exe

But he did take Virginia and that’s what happened. It is about 10% (a little less ) of his total...but even then he would be far ahead.

Like last night, Alabama and Mississippi were wins for Santorun, but not by much and heavily split. He ended up with the wins and with 31 delegates to Romney’s 23. but then in Hawaii and Samoa, Romney added like 21 or 22 delegates more to Santorum’s 2-3 and so Romney added significantly more to his lead.

That’s they way it will continue to go IMHO unless Newt and Rick make a deal.


59 posted on 03/14/2012 10:36:10 AM PDT by Jeff Head (Liberty is not free. Never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: SoConPubbie

“Both Newt and Rick need to stay in the race”

If that happens it’s unlikely that either one of them will win any of the winner-take-all states you listed.

Your strategy can prolong the race but will not change the final outcome. The only way to change the final outcome is if the losing candidates begin to drop out.

Just looking at your scenario, if Romney takes the 8 winner-take-all states and wins only 30% of the vote in the proportional races that already puts him over the top with 1174 delegates.


60 posted on 03/14/2012 10:36:48 AM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
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