Futhermore, he needs 46% of the remaining vote to win the nomination outright, he won’t get 46% of the remaining vote and each primary he does not get 46% of the vote, that percentage only goes higher.
It is not a static percentage as times goes on.
So after he loses Texas and a number of other states, and wins several in the 30% range, the percentage of votes he needs to win in the remaining states will be above 55% and probably closer to 60%.
Like I said, he can’t win outright.
“So after he loses Texas and a number of other states, and wins several in the 30% range”
Most of the remaining races are winner-take-all and there are still 1,358 delegates to be won.
If you just look at California, New York and New Jersey, there are 317 delegates available and they will not be awarded proportionally.
Your math just doesn’t add up.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012
Looking at how future primaries are structured, you will observe there are many states with WTA-CD & WTA-AL. Which means the winner in each congressional district takes all delegates. And the At Large delegates also win with a simple majority. With 4 candidates in the race one does not need 46% or even 40% to win all delegates, just 30% can win all delegates in a district if the other 3 candidates divide the other 70% with no one beating the 30%. Also observe the winner take all states of PR, DC & UT where one needs a simple majority to win all delegates.
“Futhermore, he needs 46% of the remaining vote to win the nomination outright, he won’t get 46% of the remaining vote and each primary he does not get 46% of the vote, that percentage only goes higher.”
Not correct. If Newt stays in the race we have 4 candidates dividing the votes since Dr. Paul will not drop out. There are a ton of states coming up where delegates are awarded by WTA-CD. Which means winner takes all by congressional district. Assume Paul gets 10%, Newt gets 25%. That leaves 65% divided between Santorum & Romney. Which means 33% wins ALL delegates in that district.