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After Alabama and Mississippi: Will the GOP Convention Be a Battleground?
National Journal ^ | March 14, 2012 | Alex Roarty

Posted on 03/14/2012 1:08:13 PM PDT by BAW

Is it time to take the Republican convention seriously as a potential battleground?

Republicans should know better by now. Their still-putative nominee, Mitt Romney, lacks the conservative support to capture the kind of expectations-exceeding primary win necessary to capsize underfunded but motivated rivals Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich.

Romney didn’t do it in South Carolina, Colorado, or Tennessee. He proved unable once again on Tuesday to claim victory in a state, Mississippi, that seemed tantalizingly within reach.

The months-long trend makes it clear that Romney will have to win the GOP nomination with math, not acclamation, steadily accumulating enough delegates in friendly contests until he reaches the nomination-clinching number of 1,144. But that path is fraught with risk. There is always the chance that he’ll fall just short of the magic number, which raises the possibility of a contested August convention in Tampa.

Many mocked the notion a month ago, but it now seems increasingly likely. “After last night, you have to start think it’s possible,'” said political consultant Curt Anderson, a former political director of the Republican National Committee who advised Rick Perry before he quit the race. “It seems more possible than before, that’s for sure.”

The Santorum and Gingrich campaigns are each eagerly embracing that very scenario. In a memo released this week, the Santorum team argued that some delegates ostensibly pledged to Romney would switch to the onetime senator if Romney fails to win on the first ballot at the convention. Combined with a difficult schedule remaining for Romney, that dynamic ensures that the front-runner won’t acquire enough delegates, the Santorum campaign contends

(Excerpt) Read more at nationaljournal.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: brokeredconvention; convention; gingrich; romney; santorum
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The advance drumbeats for a brokered convention are beginning to beat louder. Seems risky, but - Hey - if it gets Romney out of the picture then it might be the way to go . . .
1 posted on 03/14/2012 1:08:15 PM PDT by BAW
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To: BAW

I’m all for it.


2 posted on 03/14/2012 1:09:59 PM PDT by NoGrayZone (Jim "Firebrand" Robinson endorses Newt...with EPIC call to action!!)
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To: BAW
Newt has said he was going to do this all along and

explains again why the ruling party is doing a terrific

job to silence him. He will be there fighting. He said it first now the other person is copying his idea.

3 posted on 03/14/2012 1:11:26 PM PDT by Christie at the beach (I like Newt and would love to see political dead bodies on the floor.)
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To: BAW

It’d better be.

If it’s RINOmney, I’m not checking the president box.

After all, why go for Obama lite when one can get the whole sleezy, slimy package?


4 posted on 03/14/2012 1:12:01 PM PDT by Da Coyote
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To: BAW
The advance drumbeats for a brokered convention are beginning to beat louder. Seems risky...

Worst that can happen is we wind up with a RINO, which is where we are headed now.

5 posted on 03/14/2012 1:12:47 PM PDT by Joe the Pimpernel (Islam is a religion of peace, and Moslems reserve the right to behead anyone who says otherwise.)
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To: BAW

Not going to happen.


6 posted on 03/14/2012 1:13:10 PM PDT by org.whodat
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To: BAW

No, it wont be a brokered convention, nor a battleground.


7 posted on 03/14/2012 1:13:53 PM PDT by Ted Grant
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To: BAW

Hope so. Sieze the power back from the elites. Or at least make them scramble so they begin to fear the electorate again.


8 posted on 03/14/2012 1:14:05 PM PDT by cotton1706
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To: BAW
The advance drumbeats for a brokered convention are beginning to beat louder. Seems risky, but - Hey - if it gets Romney out of the picture then it might be the way to go . . .

If it's a brokered convention, who's going to be doing the brokering? Hint: it's not the grass roots.

9 posted on 03/14/2012 1:16:23 PM PDT by Lurking Libertarian (Non sub homine, sed sub Deo et lege)
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To: BAW
Seems risky, but - Hey - if it gets Romney out of the picture then it might be the way to go . . .

No matter who might emerge from such a convention, he or she couldn't be worse than Romney.

10 posted on 03/14/2012 1:22:31 PM PDT by CommerceComet (If Mitt can leave the GOP to protest Reagan, why can't I do the same in protest of Romney?)
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To: Ted Grant

I think you are right. The Fat Backroom, cheap labor proponents in the GOP will force us to hold our nose and vote for Romney, as they did with McCain, SIC NO ENTHUSIASM unless RUBIO is VP.

Our only hope is summed up in this email I rec’d
+++++++++++++++++++++++
Hallelujah!

Brilliant in its Simplicity

A. Back off and let those men who want to marry men, marry men.

B. Allow those women who want to marry women, marry women.

C. Allow those folks who want to abort their babies, abort their babies.

D. In three generations, there will be no Democrats.

Man!! I love it when a plan comes together!


11 posted on 03/14/2012 1:24:32 PM PDT by Tuketu (The Dim Platform is splinters bound by crazy glue. We need a solvent)
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To: BAW

I’m all in for a brokered convention. Stupid GOP-e and their RINO nonsense. They all thought it would be a cakewalk for Mittens..


12 posted on 03/14/2012 1:24:54 PM PDT by max americana
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To: Da Coyote
After all, why go for Obama lite when one can get the whole sleezy, slimy package?

Here in Illinois the primary may be the only time our vote counts. In the general we know the dems are going to win. So if the GOP candidate is Romney I'm going to vote Green for president and GOP down ticket. If enough of us in the hopeless blue states to that we might still hold the House and take the Senate. Meanwhile the big showing by the Greens might cause a split to the left of the Democrats.
13 posted on 03/14/2012 1:25:49 PM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: BAW

I’m down for it.

FUMR and the horse you rode in on. Looks more like an ass and who rides backward and bareback?


14 posted on 03/14/2012 1:26:30 PM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: Tuketu

The thing is, liberalism-leftism isn’t hereditary.


15 posted on 03/14/2012 1:27:08 PM PDT by Ted Grant
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To: BAW

Count on it!

Romney can’t secure the nomination with the state primaries left.

If he is our nominee, we lose big-time!


16 posted on 03/14/2012 1:29:06 PM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: Christie at the beach

I put my ballot in for him here. However, I’m not optimistic for him at this point. He has but ONE chance - that chance is in a lengthy speech at a brokered GOP convention. It had better be the most passionate speech of his life. If he isn’t working on it now, he should be. It is his last chance. He won’t be in any debates from hereon out.


17 posted on 03/14/2012 1:29:39 PM PDT by Gaffer
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To: cotton1706

A brokered convention has to be a good thing. Besides, I want to see the angst looks on the faces of the GOP Elites, Karl Rove and Ann Coulter.

This will be Conservatives chance to make some noise and cause a ruckus.

Romney is NOT inevitable, folks. Did you see how nervous he was on CNN last night? He’s on the ropes and knows it.
Delegate counts be damned.


18 posted on 03/14/2012 1:31:19 PM PDT by Mountain Mary ("This is OUR country and WE will decide"... Mark Levin)
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To: Christie at the beach

If Santorum does his part the rest of the way, Romney will be 250 short at the convention, while Santorum would be about 300 short. If Santorum fades, or Paul or Newt draw too much from him, Romney could pick up the 250 before then.


19 posted on 03/14/2012 1:31:19 PM PDT by Ingtar
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To: Ingtar

Santorum is not going to fade.
Wisconsin Freepers: Please contact me via private mail. We’ve got work to do.


20 posted on 03/14/2012 1:33:29 PM PDT by Mountain Mary ("This is OUR country and WE will decide"... Mark Levin)
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To: max americana

I understood the GOP elite argument earlier on, but now people are actually voting for Romney in the primaries. The money is with him, I get that too, but my frustration is with stupid people more than the GOP elite. No one if forcing them to vote for Mittens, and yet, the sheep keep doing it...


21 posted on 03/14/2012 1:34:49 PM PDT by FightforFreedomCA (Newt, Ricky, or Mitt - I will be voting on November 6th to evict the current pResident.)
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To: Gaffer

Put your ballot in for whom? Newt?

A lengthy speech at the convention? zzzzzz


22 posted on 03/14/2012 1:35:06 PM PDT by Mountain Mary ("This is OUR country and WE will decide"... Mark Levin)
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To: BAW

Sounds good to me. I will never vote for Romney.


23 posted on 03/14/2012 1:37:50 PM PDT by ilovesarah2012
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To: BAW

I hope it is a battleground. I have been saying for months now we needed a TEA Party march on GOP headquarters...

I think this will do nicely- we even have a date, folks.

show up, bring a large vehicle, food, and water and a porta-potty, and tie up that place like it never has been


24 posted on 03/14/2012 1:38:12 PM PDT by Mr. K (If Romney wins the primary, I am writing-in PALIN)
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To: BAW

I think all these convention goers are annoyed that they will actually have to do some work instead of the usual party.


25 posted on 03/14/2012 1:42:18 PM PDT by mosaicwolf (Strength and Honor)
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To: BAW

I will not trade four more years of the Kenyan for eight years of a better bred, lighter skinned . . . Kenyan.


26 posted on 03/14/2012 1:43:26 PM PDT by surely_you_jest (Mitt Romney is the latter day incarnation of Joe Isuzu.)
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To: Tuketu

And what is this love for Marco Rubio for VP?

I dont get it- he seems a nice enough YOUNG KID but not presidential for about 20 more years


27 posted on 03/14/2012 1:44:18 PM PDT by Mr. K (If Romney wins the primary, I am writing-in PALIN)
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To: BAW; SevenofNine

28 posted on 03/14/2012 1:44:18 PM PDT by monkapotamus
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To: Mountain Mary
Newt.... a speech long enough to let him get over his academic arrogance to expound on his real plans - those not including explaining how he'll not be backsliding on AGW, amnesty, cooperating with liberals, crossing the aisle, etc.

He needs to be Churchill, not say he is. Epic statemanship, not lectures.

29 posted on 03/14/2012 1:46:26 PM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Lurking Libertarian

“If it’s a brokered convention, who’s going to be doing the brokering? Hint: it’s not the grass roots. “1

People seem to miss this point. The establishment will still have the upper hand.

It would, most likely, be a bruising fight which would ultimately increase the chance of re-electing BO.


30 posted on 03/14/2012 1:51:06 PM PDT by webstersII
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To: BAW
Seems risky, but - Hey - if it gets Romney out of the picture then it might be the way to go . . .

Agreed; nobody that the GOP could stick in there at the convention would be measurably worse than Mitt. So, nothing to lose.

31 posted on 03/14/2012 1:53:16 PM PDT by Charles Martel (Endeavor to persevere...)
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To: Joe the Pimpernel

Probably a “better” RINO than McRomney though.


32 posted on 03/14/2012 1:55:14 PM PDT by JSDude1
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To: BAW
I'm not excited by the possibility of a brokered convention, not when Mitt Romney is the man the insiders are trying to push on us against our will. Still, a second round of ballots could not possibly do any worse than sticking us with Mitt. I'm hoping that the "leadership" will accept reality and choose someone not in the race, someone undamaged. DeMint comes to mind as a realistic possibility, a conservative who is acceptable to the GOP insiders. After all, how likely are they to find a modern day Ronald Reagan ready to go? Would they even know where to look?


33 posted on 03/14/2012 1:58:30 PM PDT by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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To: Pollster1

It will be Jeb Bush unfortunately.


34 posted on 03/14/2012 2:03:41 PM PDT by captnorb
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To: Gaffer

He gave a good victory speech last night, Gaffer, but a good speech does not win elections.
Newt needs to realize that he cannot win the nomination and join forces with Santorum to take Mittens out at the knees.


35 posted on 03/14/2012 2:05:59 PM PDT by Mountain Mary ("This is OUR country and WE will decide"... Mark Levin)
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To: FightforFreedomCA

I wonder how many of these primaries are open primaries. Or people can register right before. Dems can then (and do) register for the primary, vote for the one best suited to lose, and then go back to being a Dem. Of course open primaries totally suck in every way.


36 posted on 03/14/2012 2:06:29 PM PDT by little jeremiah (We will have to go through hell to get out of hell. Signed, a fanatic)
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To: BAW

“tantalizingly within reach”

The MSM had all but called it for Romney before the votes were counted. lol.


37 posted on 03/14/2012 2:08:38 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: captnorb
It will be Jeb Bush unfortunately.

I'd like to be able to type, "Even the GOP leadership isn't quite that stupid", but I'd get laughed at for posting something so dumb and I could very easily be wrong.

38 posted on 03/14/2012 2:08:51 PM PDT by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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To: BAW

but who will run a brokered conventioned? The establishment ‘moderates’??


39 posted on 03/14/2012 2:11:28 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: Gaffer

PBS has a debate scheduled in Oregon on March 19th. So far, it hasn’t been cancelled, though I suspect it will be. The only candidate who profits from debates is Gingrich, and neither Santorum nor Romney have any reason to allow that.


40 posted on 03/14/2012 2:15:24 PM PDT by lonevoice (Klepto Baracka Marxo, impeach we much.)
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To: Mountain Mary

Well, I’d say last night wasn’t a victory for him. Secondly, I’m not talking about victory speeches. I’m talking about the kind of speech when you’re back is against the wall and what needs to be done and uplifting. Not “we’re gonna piecemeal hamstring Romney.”


41 posted on 03/14/2012 2:15:24 PM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Mountain Mary

I hear Romney’s fundraising is way way down


42 posted on 03/14/2012 2:15:24 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: webstersII

The point is that Romney is not much different than BO


43 posted on 03/14/2012 2:17:45 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: GeronL

The term “brokered convention” does not mean what it did 150 years ago. Today, each state has slightly different rules about its national convention delegates. In Texas, for example, the delegates are bound to vote for their allocated primary nominee for the first round of voting. If after the first round of voting, there is no majority, they are then all free to vote for anyone. So you see, it’s not really “brokered” as the nominee will need to win the delegate votes, one way or another.


44 posted on 03/14/2012 2:18:29 PM PDT by Stat-boy
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To: lonevoice

You got it. There is no reason why either Mitt or Rick would debate him. Even when/if Newt gets a GOP nomination, it will be like pulling teeth to get Obama to debate him.

Even then, moderators, location, topics, etc. will be rigidly controlled lest the affirmative action, white-guilt, halfrican Muslim be embarrassed. In such a forum Newt wouldn’t be ALLOWED to win.

The only place he can redeem is at the GOP Convention, frankly.


45 posted on 03/14/2012 2:20:01 PM PDT by Gaffer
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To: little jeremiah

Open primaries are stupid, that is totally right.


46 posted on 03/14/2012 2:21:08 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: GeronL
It has been my understanding that Romney has never had a significant number of small donors. Lots of corporate bundling. If is big money boys start pulling back, he will have real problems.
47 posted on 03/14/2012 2:21:57 PM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (Romney - Santorum: Twin Sons of Different Mothers...)
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To: Stat-boy

I saw a brokered convention on TV as a kid. Ronald Reagan spoke there, giving The Speech. It was great. As a matter of fact, it was riveting. All eyes everywhere were focused on it.

I’d like for everyone to see one again. It might help people see what Presidential politics and citizens involved in politics can really do.


48 posted on 03/14/2012 2:23:14 PM PDT by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spiritui Sancto.)
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To: BAW; Pride in the USA; Stillwaters

I think Newt all but said this in his after-election speech last night. He said he’s staying in all the way to Tampa because:

1. We must block Romney
2. We must elect a conservative

He said, “It may not be one of us. It may be that somebody else steps forward.” It doesn’t get much more plainly spoken than that.

I believe Newt is fighting with everything in him for the survival of this great Republic. His goal now is to be part of taking down the Establishment at the convention, and to do all he can to see to it that we have an electable conservative nominee, even if it’s not him. I sent him more money this morning.


49 posted on 03/14/2012 2:30:47 PM PDT by lonevoice (Klepto Baracka Marxo, impeach we much.)
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Oh, and I remember Reagan giving that speech. As a family, we were huddled in a small living room of a cabin, watching a tiny TV. Reagan’s hair started flying as he became more insistent. We were shocked that this was Reagan. You could see the lights of tiny TVs playing the speech in other dimly lit cabins.

My dad got up and went to the telephone: one of those old, finger-dialed black ones with the big fabric cords. He called long distance to the convention and spoke to the state leader. I sat at the dining room table that had an old, lacy ivory tablecloth on it and a single light overhead. He was determined and wanted Reagan nominated right there.

My dad did that and spent some hard-earned money on long distance. That was the first time I ever paid any attention to politics.

I was in awe.


50 posted on 03/14/2012 2:31:02 PM PDT by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spiritui Sancto.)
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