Skip to comments.After Alabama and Mississippi: Will the GOP Convention Be a Battleground?
Posted on 03/14/2012 1:08:13 PM PDT by BAW
Is it time to take the Republican convention seriously as a potential battleground?
Republicans should know better by now. Their still-putative nominee, Mitt Romney, lacks the conservative support to capture the kind of expectations-exceeding primary win necessary to capsize underfunded but motivated rivals Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich.
Romney didnt do it in South Carolina, Colorado, or Tennessee. He proved unable once again on Tuesday to claim victory in a state, Mississippi, that seemed tantalizingly within reach.
The months-long trend makes it clear that Romney will have to win the GOP nomination with math, not acclamation, steadily accumulating enough delegates in friendly contests until he reaches the nomination-clinching number of 1,144. But that path is fraught with risk. There is always the chance that hell fall just short of the magic number, which raises the possibility of a contested August convention in Tampa.
Many mocked the notion a month ago, but it now seems increasingly likely. After last night, you have to start think its possible,' said political consultant Curt Anderson, a former political director of the Republican National Committee who advised Rick Perry before he quit the race. It seems more possible than before, thats for sure.
The Santorum and Gingrich campaigns are each eagerly embracing that very scenario. In a memo released this week, the Santorum team argued that some delegates ostensibly pledged to Romney would switch to the onetime senator if Romney fails to win on the first ballot at the convention. Combined with a difficult schedule remaining for Romney, that dynamic ensures that the front-runner wont acquire enough delegates, the Santorum campaign contends
(Excerpt) Read more at nationaljournal.com ...
Well, I’d say last night wasn’t a victory for him. Secondly, I’m not talking about victory speeches. I’m talking about the kind of speech when you’re back is against the wall and what needs to be done and uplifting. Not “we’re gonna piecemeal hamstring Romney.”
I hear Romney’s fundraising is way way down
The point is that Romney is not much different than BO
The term brokered convention does not mean what it did 150 years ago. Today, each state has slightly different rules about its national convention delegates. In Texas, for example, the delegates are bound to vote for their allocated primary nominee for the first round of voting. If after the first round of voting, there is no majority, they are then all free to vote for anyone. So you see, its not really brokered as the nominee will need to win the delegate votes, one way or another.
You got it. There is no reason why either Mitt or Rick would debate him. Even when/if Newt gets a GOP nomination, it will be like pulling teeth to get Obama to debate him.
Even then, moderators, location, topics, etc. will be rigidly controlled lest the affirmative action, white-guilt, halfrican Muslim be embarrassed. In such a forum Newt wouldn’t be ALLOWED to win.
The only place he can redeem is at the GOP Convention, frankly.
Open primaries are stupid, that is totally right.
I saw a brokered convention on TV as a kid. Ronald Reagan spoke there, giving The Speech. It was great. As a matter of fact, it was riveting. All eyes everywhere were focused on it.
I’d like for everyone to see one again. It might help people see what Presidential politics and citizens involved in politics can really do.
I think Newt all but said this in his after-election speech last night. He said he’s staying in all the way to Tampa because:
1. We must block Romney
2. We must elect a conservative
He said, “It may not be one of us. It may be that somebody else steps forward.” It doesn’t get much more plainly spoken than that.
I believe Newt is fighting with everything in him for the survival of this great Republic. His goal now is to be part of taking down the Establishment at the convention, and to do all he can to see to it that we have an electable conservative nominee, even if it’s not him. I sent him more money this morning.
Oh, and I remember Reagan giving that speech. As a family, we were huddled in a small living room of a cabin, watching a tiny TV. Reagan’s hair started flying as he became more insistent. We were shocked that this was Reagan. You could see the lights of tiny TVs playing the speech in other dimly lit cabins.
My dad got up and went to the telephone: one of those old, finger-dialed black ones with the big fabric cords. He called long distance to the convention and spoke to the state leader. I sat at the dining room table that had an old, lacy ivory tablecloth on it and a single light overhead. He was determined and wanted Reagan nominated right there.
My dad did that and spent some hard-earned money on long distance. That was the first time I ever paid any attention to politics.
I was in awe.
We need a super conservative majority in BOTH HOUSES, ones that can over ride even 0’s EO’s and other insanities. Even if it ends up with the RINO, that would put a stop to a lot of what he could do.
Any congress critter or president who FAILS to keep faith with the Military, WON’T keep faith with U
They need to start attacking 0 and 0’care. And Yes it is FR POSTED! Not only on this issue but on the guts to the Military, Medicare. There won’t be a doctor to take granny come 2014 if we do not get this monster repealed. Yes cuts need to be made, BUT NOT GUTTING Medicare as 0 has done.
$1 GENOCIDE OF THE UNBORN
Nestled within the individual mandate in the Obamacare act that portion of the Act requiring every American to purchase government approved insurance or pay a penalty is an abortion premium mandate. This mandate requires all persons enrolled in insurance plans that include elective abortion coverage to pay a separate premium from their own pockets to fund abortion. As a result, many pro-life Americans will have to decide between a plan that violates their consciences by funding abortion, or a plan that may not meet their health needs.
“The point is that Romney is not much different than BO”
That’s what everyone said about BO versus McCain.
Do you really think that McCain would have appointed a loser like Sotomayor to the SC? Would he have initiated gov’t healthcare and all the other lib stuff BO has done?
Sure Romney is not that conservative, but to say that he is not that different from BO is not true. He is not out to destroy this country on the altar of political correctness and fairness.
He wouldn’t be a good, conservative president but to say that he would pursue the same type of stuff that BO has pursued is ludicrous.
Good conclusion. I sent Newt more money two days ago myself.
Get ready for microwave more popcorn I think the GOP convention GOING BE GOODD
Maybe not like 1968 riot convention for Demos they could try LOL!
I don’t see how Santorum puts that much of a dent in Mitt unless Newt drops out or suddenly drops to less than 5% in the 14 or so variations on winner-take-all states from here on out. The math seems to show Romney getting very close to 1,144 at the current trajectory, enough that any contest at the convention would be a foregone conclusion, because you have over 100 unpledged RNC delegates who can vote for whoever they want even on the first ballot plus Ron Paul’s delegates opening up on the second ballot.
Newt will be acting as Rick’s Ross Perot in the many numerous winner-take-all states and districts coming up (far more than in the primary’s first half).
Illinois is a case in point. It has direct delegate election by district, which means whichever candidate’s delegates get the most votes in that district, win the whole district. Romney is polling 35-31-12-7 right now in Illinois. Newt is taking enough votes away from Rick to give him second place. If that vote spread held across every district, Mitt would win ALL 69 delegates in Illinois. If Newt dropped out and Rick got 75% of his votes (even if Mitt got the other 25%) then Rick would win those instead.
Upcoming are 622 delegates from “conditional” or by-district winner-take-all states, all ones “moderate” enough to give Mitt the win out of a split vote, just like Ohio and Michigan did:
Connecticut (a mix)
The fully statewide winner-take-all contests are perhaps less likely to be lost by Mitt in any type of race. Although I’m not sure what the character of Republicans is in all these states and if Santorum could win any, except of course Wisconsin. 228 delegates from these.
439 delegates remain from proportional contests. The problem with these is while most of them favor the conservatives, Romney is going to be able to accumulate delegates from them anyway. Since they’re not WTA, we can’t shut Romney out of delegates in the states where we’re likely to be the winner.
If Romney gets 150 from the proportional, 186 from the statewide winner-take-all (subtracting Wisconsin), he’s up to 831. He’d only need HALF of the delegates from those seven “conditional” winner-take-all states to hit his magic number. When you consider he’ll get maybe 150 from Ron Paul and the RNC combined, he only needs about 150 from the 622 in those states to get to a “safe” zone.
The ONLY strategy is to make it a 2-man race and then BLOW Romney out of the water in as many winner-take-all states and districts as possible. The status quo has Romney sailing pretty comfortably to the nomination. We have to deny him VIRTUALLY EVERY DELEGATE in Illinois, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Texas and maybe half of the California and New York ones. To do that we need to have a candidate that wins THE MOST VOTES in almost every district. That will not happen when we have one candidate siphoning off votes from the other.
RomneyCare is ObamaCare.
Romney will not repeal it.
Romney is pro-gay, pro-abortion, anti-gun and appointed liberal judges in Mass-a-taxes.
He will flip flop right back if he wins.
WHERE IS THE TEA PARTY
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