Skip to comments.Newt’s Logic: Why Gingrich Isn’t Getting Out of GOP Race
Posted on 03/14/2012 9:12:28 PM PDT by VinL
....Newt Gingrich is not getting out of the race any time soon.
Heres why: Gingrich firmly believes that staying in the race is the best way to prevent Mitt Romney from clinching the nomination before the convention in August. And he actually may have a point....
Gingrich knows that it is virtually impossible for him, or Santorum for that matter, to beat Romney on delegates, but he makes the case and it is not far-fetched that unless Romney starts winning delegates at a faster pace he wont clinch nomination by end the end of the primaries....
My expectation is it is going to be an open convention, Gingrich said. They'd [the Gop-e] like to have a coronation but thats not how this is done.
...If Gingrich drops out, he argues, two things will happen:
1) His vote gets divided between Santorum and Romney. A larger percentage would go to Santorum, but at least some goes to Romney, allowing him to accumulate more delegates; and,
2) Romney is then able to aim all of his considerable firepower at Santorum, destroying him with negative ads the way he twice destroyed Gingrich (in Iowa and Florida).
This thing is going to go on. You guys need to relax and cover the most interesting nominating process in your lifetime, Gingrich told me. Be not anxiety-ridden, this is going to be good for America. This is a good conversation to have.
And here is another reason Gingrich isnt any closer to dropping out after Tuesdays primaries in Alabama and Mississippi; he just beat front-runner Mitt Romney in both states.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
Perhaps it takes a "leap of faith"; but if this little one's willing, I am, too. -:)
Newt knows how to get things done, and he’s not afraid to do what’s necessary.
Despite what I wrote to you earlier, this article actually makes a lot of sense once you sit down and do the math.
Others would disagree:
Heres one analysis
By Matthew Jaffe
Matthew Jaffe is covering the 2012 campaign for ABC News and Univision.
Mar 8, 2012
How Gingrichs Refusal To Quit Has Hurt Santorum, Benefited Bitter Rival Romney
If a thank-you note arrives in Newt Gingrichs mailbox in McLean, Virginia, the former House Speaker shouldnt be surprised if its from Mitt Romney: the likely Republican presidential nominee may have Gingrich to thank for his frontrunner status.
In a surprising development, given Gingrichs intense dislike of Romney, Gingrich has been indirectly responsible for some of Romneys recent successes in the GOP primary. If Gingrich had dropped out of the race, say, after his resounding defeat in Florida in January, the dynamic of the Republican contest could be drastically different today.
In the month since Floridas primary, Santorum has suffered narrow defeats to Romney in Ohio and Michigan, defeats which have made it all but impossible for him to win the nomination and defeats which might have been victories had it not been for Gingrichs continued presence in the race.
On Tuesday in Ohio, for instance, Santorum apparently lost to Romney by only about 10,000 votes, a mere 0.8 percent margin of defeat. 175,000 voters, however, backed Gingrich that day and, polling shows, if he had not been on the ballot, Santorum would have benefited more than Romney and would have had a better chance of winning.
Sixty-three percent of voters in the Ohio Republican primary the largest amount for any candidate said the would be satisfied if Santorum were the partys nominee. Fewer 57 percent said they would be satisfied with Romney. Fewer than half 48 percent said they would be satisfied with Gingrich.
Romney may also benefited from Gingrichs presence in other states such as Alaska and Georgia. In Alaska, Romney squeaked out a win over Santorum by a little more than 400 votes. In that race, more than 1,800 voters, including Sarah Palin, backed Gingrich.
In Georgia, meanwhile, Gingrichs home state, the former House Speaker cruised to an easy victory with 47 percent of the vote, trailed by Romney with 25 percent and Santorum with 19 percent.
39 percent of Gingrich supporters said Santorums policy positions were about right. Only 23 percent of Gingrich supporters said the same about Mitt Romney.
Give Santorum victories in Ohio, Alaska and Georgia and suddenly the GOP race looks a little bit different. While Romney would still be ahead in the delegate count and still the favorite to eventually secure the nomination Santorum would stand a much better chance at mounting a serious challenge for the partys nod, especially with the former Pennsylvania senator favored to win a slew of the upcoming primary states, such as Alabama, Mississippi, Kansas and Missouri.
That fact is not lost on Santorums campaign, which has vociferously called on Gingrich to leave the race. As Super Tuesday wound down, Santorums national communications director Hogan Gidley said a head-to-head matchup with Santorum was Romneys worst nightmare, but that the continued presence of Gingrich and Ron Paul was preventing that from occurring.
Look at the numbers wed be winning these states by ten points, Gidley said. Youre talking about the anti-Romney vote being split three ways.
The next morning Santorums Super PAC the Red, White and Blue Fund followed suit, calling on Gingrich to abandon the race so that conservatives would be able to make a choice between a consistent conservative in Rick Santorum or Mitt Romney.
With Gingrich out of the race, Santorum would have won both Ohio and Michigan, Stuart Roy, an RWB Fund adviser, said. Newt has become a hindrance to a conservative alternative.
The former director of Gingrichs South Carolina campaign even added her voice to the growing number of calls for Gingrich to get out now, although DeLinda Ridings wants Gingrich to exit not to give Santorum a better chance, but so Republicans can coalesce around Romney.
Despite Roys claim, it is unclear if in fact Santorum would have been able to win Romneys home state of Michigan if Gingrich had not been in the race. Romney defeated Santorum there by a little more than 32,000 votes. Gingrich that day earned around 65,000 votes. That means Santorum would have had to win a huge percentage of those Gingrich votes better than a 2-to-1 margin.
According to the New York Times Nate Silver, Gingrichs absence would not have been enough for Santorum to triumph in the state.
He would not have won Michigan Mr. Gingrich received very few votes there so there was little marginal benefit to Mr. Santorum although it would have flipped one Congressional district and therefore given him the majority of delegates in the state, Silver wrote on his Five Thirty Eight blog on the New York Times website.
Overall, Silver wrote, if Gingrich had exited the race before South Carolinas primary in January which he won Santorum would have emerged victorious in four states that he lost: South Carolina, Georgia, Alaska and Ohio.
But Romney would still be leading where it matters, in delegates.
Mr. Romney would still be significantly ahead in the delegate count, Silver said. I have him with 404 delegates versus 264 for Mr. Santorum and 71 for Mr. Paul. Mr. Romneys delegate total, in fact, is very slightly higher than it would have been before the redistribution of the vote.
There are cases when the shift in votes costs him delegates, such as in winner-take-all districts, or when one of his opponents gains more votes and crosses a threshold that enables him to receive proportional delegates.
But Mr. Romney is being given some votes under these assumptions if not, as many as Mr. Santorum and that helps in cases where the delegate allocation is more proportional. These factors came close to balancing out, but Mr. Romney gained about 10 delegates on net.
Mr. Santorum, however, made the larger gains, winning about 110 delegates than he has taken in the real world with Mr. Gingrich on the ballot, he concluded.
On Wednesday Santorum acknowledged that he wanted Gingrich out of the race, but stopped short of calling on his opponent to step aside.
Im not saying I dont want him to get out. If he wants to get out, Im all for him getting out. Im for Mitt Romney getting out. I wish President Obama would just hand me the thing, but thats not going to happen, Santorum said in Lenexa, Kansas.
Gingrich, though, has said he isnt going anywhere except on to campaign stops in upcoming primary states like Alabama and Mississippi, states his campaign calls must-wins. Were staying in this race because I believe its going to be impossible for a moderate to win the general election, Gingrich said Wednesday in Montgomery, Alabama.
Earlier in the day, Gingrich said on The Bill Bennett Show that he might drop out if he thought Santorum could knock out Romney and Obama.
If I thought he was a slam dunk to beat Romney and to beat Obama, I would really consider getting out, Gingrich said. I dont.
Considering Gingrich has waged a bitter primary battle with Romney, depicting the former Massachusetts governor as a lying, hypocritical moderate, it is a little surprising that he now intends to stay in the race even if that benefits Romney.
On January 26 in Florida, as Romney launched an astounding barrage of attack ads against Gingrich Romney and his allies spent over $15 million on ads in the state and all but one of those ads was negative. Gingrich has since then ripped into Romney, denouncing his campaign, his background, and his character.
To have his campaign take on a lifetime of work and lie about it, frankly I do find infuriating, Gingrich railed. I think it is one of the most dishonest things Ive seen in politics. It is so fundamentally abusive.
Heres a guy a who owns Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae stock. He owns a Goldman Sachs subsidiary that forecloses on Floridians. He is surrounded by lobbyists who are paid by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to stop reform. And on that front he decides to lie about my career? Theres something about that hypocrisy that should make every Americas angry.
I am angry, he continued. But I think Im angry and every American should be angry. How can somebody run a campaign this dishonest and think hes going to have any credibility running for president?
Only four days later, in an interview with ABC News in Tampa, Gingrich continued to denounce Romney, saying he has a profound character problem.
He governed as a liberal who was pro-abortion, pro-gun rights, pro-tax increases, and pro-gay rights. Appointed liberal judges. Passed Romneycare, Gingrich said.
But now this is the same rival who Gingrich is indirectly helping by staying in a race that has left him beaten, bruised, and with virtually no shot at all of winning the nomination. He has only won two states South Carolina and Georgia compared to six for Santorum, not counting Missouri, which last month held a primary won by Santorum but it was known at the time that the primary would not affect the states delegate allocation in favor of caucuses in March.
Ultimately, playing the game of what might have been? is a pointless exercise. Gingrich didnt drop out after his loss in Florida. Santorum didnt win Ohio, Georgia, and Alaska. And Romney now has a huge seemingly insurmountable lead in the Republican race, with 401 delegates compared to 177 for Santorum.
The only thing left is for Romney to secure the 1,144 needed to lock up the nomination and perhaps send that thank-you note to Gingrich.
This is where his thinking falls apart. Just like Newts fabled Southern Strategy was a bust, the idea that the attack ads are affecting Rick the same that they did Newt isn't panning out either. Rick has been the singular focus of the Milt Smear machine since CO and it is not having the impact that it did to Newt. Ricks approvals are still solid and he is getting results by besting Milt in state contests. What else can Milt possibly do other than melt down on a CNN interview about Rick. Oh yeah, he already did that.
I’m with you :)
Look at it the other way: it is a certainty that Santorum cannot win enough delegates to secure the nomination.
So the two choices now are to a) do what Newt says here and force an open convention, or b) for one or the other to quit and thus assure that Romney is the nominee.
Those are the options as I see it.
Let’s talk after Illinois.
It is at the convention that the delegates will decide whether, given that their candidate cannot win, they will vote for Romney or someone else. That's how it works. Good for Newt for realizing this.
Romney reminds me so much of Schwarzenegger here in Kalifornia, claiming not to be a liberal and yet never seeming to do anything but support liberal causes.
I see the same two options.
Take it all the way to Tampa Newt Gingrich. :-)
Yes, I am supporting Newt for a convention fight.
Maybe, Romney and Ricky will have more vetting by then as well.. Our country is so at a crossroads. Go, Newt. No Romneycare, no Bushie.
There is a good interview with Newt on
And then some.
Both Newt and Rick will be in until the convention.
Load up on beer and pop corn and relax, 'cause bitching about it will only give you heartburn.
Good Lord, steelfish, just like Santorum — long winded and just taking up space. -:)
Til the last dog dies. Victory or death!
Well sorry about that- but then again it was from an ABC reporter. Maybe I should have just posted his link. But again detailed voting pattern analyses cannot be written in monosyllabic grunts.
I’m with both of you, and a LOT of us are.
Maybe I should have just posted his link.
Yes, you should have. -:) No worries.
You’re right. Once again, truth is simple :-)
In our culture, there seems to be a rush to judgement on a two-dimentional, take it or leave it, either-or basis.
In the Eisenhower Administration, Sec. of State Dulles used that two-dimentional thinking with third-world countries such as India. John Fosters rule of thumb was Either you are for us or against us. Nehru said none of the above, and The Third World was born to the horror of Dulles.
Today the MSM drumbeat to find Number One is based a false two-dimentional assumption that a supporter of one candidate would switch support to another candidate if their candidate dropped out of the race.
Some will, but many others will: a) not vote, b) vote for who they think will be the eventual Nominee, c) vote for anybody but the top two candidates, or c) turn in a ballot with no Presidential names marked.
It is far better for the GOP to see what % of the voters vote for the various candidates, as each one has distinct ideas, and thereby show that ideas are important in selecting a Nominee, and platform planks.
For example: About 1/3 rd like to vote for the SOS_ _ _ Candidate; 1/3 rd vote for the hope of the future Candidate; and 1/3 rd vote for 2 candidates who are boat-rockers.
The supporters of the boat-rockers are the least likely to vote for the SOS, or the hope of the future Candidate.
Thus, the best way to reform the Republican Party is to bring the remaining FOUR HORSEMEN into The Big Tent at Tampa, and force by debate on the floor, the RNC to stop Nominating round-heeled RINOs to defeat the Counter Culture Left.
The longer the Primary Campaign goes on, the fewer the opportunities will remain for Candidates to convince voters that they have ideas with merit, or, in the case of Romney, no useful ideas at all - - - .
The very fact MJaffe works for a MSM (propaganda) outlet, casts doubt on his veracity.
Sad, but true.
Iowa. Virginia. Third Party Man Ron Paul. crossover democrats being decisive, etc.
However, as the Primary Campaign continues, thanks to Newt and now Santorum, Romney is showing the voters that he is a big spender in this Primary Campaign, and he will probably also be a big spender if elected POTUS.
I understand and agree with the first logic, but not the second one. It’s not like Romney team doesn’t see what’s going on and responds to it. They know that the main target now is Santorum, and they will target him now. They’re not going to gun for Newt anymore since they probably are happier that he’s still in the race.
Now, Red, don’t get on friend, Steelfish. He says he was once a Newt supporter, until Rick won some primaries. So our good friend is just a bit conflicted and muddled.
Let’s just pray that when his head stops spinning, it’s back to facing front—
He is the only one smart enough to know how to crush Mitt, and he aims to do it one way or another. That's good enough for me, and I trust NEWT.
After all the negative lying ads Mitt ran against Newt in Iowa, Newt will never forget that. Romneys going down.
BTW: I hope Newt gets to see that picture of the little girl.
Interesting. That is what the Newt folks on FR were telling us this past weekend when we said that Rick had a shot in one or two of those states Tuesday. Funny how that worked out.
“So our good friend is just a bit conflicted and muddled.”
Well, well, well. Some of us try not to emulate the three proverbial monkeys like “Hear No Bad, See No Bad, and Speak No Bad” of Gingrich.
With respect, I think you misread my intent.
You said that Rick wouldn’t be hurt by Romney’s negative ads. To THAT, I said let’s talk after Illinois.
My feeling has been that Romney has yet to go both barrels after Rick because he would just elevate Newt. Now, I think he has no choice.
Could be wrong— but, that’s why I introduced Illinois- not that I expected that Newt would be competitive there. I doubt he will.
Come on Annie- be nice— Steelfish is a good guy- just on the wrong team at present. We’ll win him back.
This primary season has been hard fought, but I’ve always found Steelfish to be decent about things....
I hope that doesn’t sound arrogant. I just appreciate the way he battles.
“BTW: I hope Newt gets to see that picture of the little girl. “
Did you get to hear his story of the 175,000th $2.50 donor which he called on the phone? He told it in his after-primaries speech Tuesday night. Brought tears to my (and others’) eyes.
Ok, I will go into my closet now and giggle.
Some of us try not to emulate the three proverbial monkeys like Hear No Bad, See No Bad, and Speak No Bad of Gingrich.
Steel, don’t get upset- just having some good natured fun. Honest.
But, perhaps you might reconsider your point about “emulating Gingrich”.
Now, I’m certain your don’t-— but friend Santorum wouldn’t have a platform, campaign or any thing to say- if he didn’t emulate Newt.
Wow, that is awesome, and just the kind of man Newt is.
Thanks for telling me about this.
I got Romney smear ads running one right after the other here in PA and we don’t even vote till three days before the convention it is so late. Latest polling has Rick cruising above 50% over the other candidates and a new poll out shows Rick beating Obummer here. We are a blueish swing state. If Obummer loses PA, he is finished. I don;t think that the negative ads and MSM smears on him being a misogynist are working.
I hope you’re right. I heard Rick withstood a lot of negativity in the South.
I’m just thinking that Romney can’t lose Illinois— so one might see the $15M as was spent in Fla— I don’t know. Be interesting to watch.
No getting upset, just having some fun with you folks on the other side of the fence and occasionally yanking your chain. I think both you and Red Steel are very engaging.
hey! maybe just maybe Santorum is helping Romney! Maybe some of us want Santorum to get out.
Flopping Aces has an article about Romney and Paul negotiating an ‘arrangement’.
I read part of it. Doesn’t sound good for conservatives.
Did you get to hear his story of the 175,000th $2.50 donor which he called on the phone?
I have seen a lot of romney’s negative santorum ads, and they are very mild - voting with hilary for felon votes, a couple bigspending items, nothing personal, nothing sleazy. Even the ads weren’t filled with the ominous music, darkened profiles that are the norm. He hasn’t even begun on Santorum. I think he’s testing the depth of Santorum support, still isn’t totally convinced he can’t beat him, but the day will come rick won’t know what hit him...
He's absolutely right. The only path to stop Romney now is for the non-Romneys to take any delegate they can away. If he gets out Romney benefits. If Rick gets out Romney benefits. If Paul gets out Romney benefits.
He also has an effect on the national dialog the others don't. Maybe they'll learn something.
>> He also has an effect on the national dialog the others don’t. Maybe they’ll learn something.
What, the mind-dumbing, breathy platitudes of Newt’s opponents isn’t working for ya’?
I hope Newt stays in just to see Kraut and Tokyo get a wedgie every night on Foxney News.
I am still in Newt’s corner all the way to the convention. Did you notice today that just as Newt predicted, he is in Obama’s head? He targeted Newt and his $2.50 a gallon gasoline plan during a speech on a college campus in Maryland. Obama is worried about Newt . . . still. Go, Newt!!!