Posted on 03/14/2012 9:27:16 PM PDT by VinL
When Mitt Romney walked into the West Virginia Republican delegate convention on Feb. 5, 2008, he had every reason to believe that he was about to notch a key Super Tuesday victory that would help spark his candidacy.
The Romney campaign had been laying the groundwork in West Virginia for a year-and-a-half, while John McCain and Mike Huckabee barely had a footprint in the state. West Virginia's system that year awarded 18 of its convention delegates based on the results of a vote taken by 1,207 county delegates who had gathered that day in a giant ballroom in Charleston.
This rule placing delegate allocation in the hands of party regulars, rather than voters, was assumed to be a major asset for the well-organized Romney. But the system ended up being his downfall.
After Romney fell just short of the 50 percent threshold required to win on the first ballot, McCain’s and Ron Paul’s forces defected en masse to Huckabee on the second ballot, propelling the former Arkansas governor to just over 50 percent of the vote -- and a win. Romney dropped out of the race two days later.
The former Massachusetts governor’s unpleasant experience in the Mountain State serves as a reminder that if he fails to secure the 1,144 delegates needed to win the Republican presidential nomination on the first ballot of the 2012 Republican National Convention, all bets may be off.
By any measure..
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
If Gingrich drops off, Santorum would get 57% of his vote tally and 27% would go to Romney according to the following analysis based on PPP internal polling.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/08/how-would-santorum-do-without-gingrich/
Steelfish, last poll by Ras- Romney 54- San 36. He’s not beating Romney one on one—
Smart move- take Vp to Newt— and be in power for the next 16 years.
I was for Gingrich until Santorum scored his trifecta. I have no problem with Gingrich as VP but right now by staying in the race he’s making that choice very difficult.
Even still, that’s 27% going Romney’s way which Santorum cannot afford.
There is absolutely no way Santorum can reach 1,144 delegates, regardless if Newt’s in or not. The best we can hope for is to deny Romney from reaching 1,144 and force a brokered convention.
Newt needs to join up with Santorum or get out of the race.
The Newt supporters have to face with reality now, now if they want Newt to still be in this race and be on a winning team and stop Romney and Paul, Newt can drop out as a Presidential candidate and pledge his support for Rick Santorum and welcome to be Rick’s VP.
When Romney looses at the convention. WILL HE GO AWAY FOR GOOD? He is as much of a nightmare as Obama.
I trust Newt, I trust that he has a plan and knows exactly what he is doing by staying this race.
Newt Gingrich so loves America, he is not stupid and if push comes to shove, he will support Santorum as all of us will, but he is going to get something out of it for himself and for all of us. Either way WE WIN.
I'm still with and trust Newt. He dispises Romney and will do everything in his power to crush him. Hang on the ride is going to be fun.
You’re not thinking tactically enough. If Newt drops out, and if even a mere 25% of Newt supporters go to Romney, Romney will cinch the magic # of 1,144 delegates.
bogus poll... 80% landline.
Santorum is underpolling over and over because of this and a general undersampling of voters under 50.
He didn’t lead any polls going into MS... he carried every demo under 50 by double digits in the exit polls.
I said it when Newt was in the lead- he couldn’t beat Romney one on one; and neither can Rick.
Newt is framing this entire process- w/o him, Rick is lost.
Rick should just sit back and come along for the ride- just like 1994.
That might be true... I’m all for a Rick/Newt Ticket... or the other way around if Newt surges in delegates.
If not... who knows with a brokered convention. As long as we don’t nominate Obamney.
Honestly not before April 4th with the proportional award of delegates systems in place.
Once things go winner take all someone has to apply the wisdom of Solomon & Reagan and get out.
Newt is perfect for the VP campaign role... doesn’t have to filter, just follow around Obama and throw rhetorical bombs.
According to recent exit polls, more than half of Gingrich’s supporters said that they would be satisfied with Santorum as the nominee, while less than a third felt that way about Romney.
So bytthe reasoning of the very article being cited favorably here, if Gingrich dropped out, Santorum would get almost twice as much of Gingrich's support as Romney, and would put Santorum in the driver's seat.
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