Skip to comments.Illinois Primary Could Be Rick Santorum's Big Chance
Posted on 03/14/2012 9:54:02 PM PDT by Steelfish
Illinois Primary Could Be Rick Santorum's Big Chance The Republican presidential contest next week gives the conservative a shot at seizing the momentum from front-runner Mitt Romney, who leads him there by just 4 points.
By Paul West March 14, 2012 After a pair of pivotal Southern tests, the Republican presidential race has become a battle between Mitt Romney's grind-it-out delegate arithmetic and Rick Santorum's popular momentum.
It's not exactly an even nomination fight at the moment. Romney remains the clear favorite, though his campaign advisors don't expect him to lock up the needed 1,144 delegates before May, at the earliest. Santorum scored upset wins Tuesday in Mississippi and Alabama but is unlikely to gain enough delegates during the primary season to overtake Romney. Instead, the insurgent challenger is attempting to keep the front-runner from obtaining a majority before this summer's national convention.
That has added unexpected drama to next week's Illinois primary. "Santorum needs a big unexpected win to fundamentally alter the race," said Republican strategist Mike DuHaime, who is unaligned this year. Illinois, he added, would fit that category.
The state, large and diverse, is not as conservative as others where Santorum has been successful. But a recent Chicago Tribune/WGN poll showed him only 4 percentage points behind Romney statewide, with Newt Gingrich far back.
The Romney forces are again bringing their considerable financial muscle to bear, throwing millions of dollars into Illinois attack ads against Santorum, who has been slow to get on the air. (snip)
"Santorum has to win on Romney turf. Period," Josh Putnam, a Davidson College political scientist who specializes in GOP delegate rules, said in an email. "He has to demonstrate that he can expand beyond the prairie (and surrounding) states and can branch out more than to just Gingrich territory.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
I thought he was the New Messiah at this point!
See yall in 5 days.
4 days and 2 minutes
It is all about delegates. Around the corner, sometime.
Rom-A-Ney, has to vet Rick, then we're going
Who did they poll? Unless they included a lot of democrats in that poll, it is meaningless. Illinois democrats can and will vote in huge numbers in the Illinois Republican primary.
You walk into the polling place and they have one question for you, "Republican or Democrat ballot"? Obama is unopposed in the rat primary. Rats will vote in the republican race.
What’s Gingrich’s tactic?
voting chaos in all upcoming republican primaries. he may
win but the numbers are not all accurate. So, if he wins more, don't forget to include those liberal voters, okay..okay.. (Re: Daily Kos Cheers for Santorum wins)
You post article after article, written mostly by Romney supporters and the GOPe and you find it necessary to shout ....
Folks get your point, but they disagree, having both Newt and Rick in the race is the only realistic way to prevent Romney from getting the nomination.
Luckily Newt understands this and is not going anywhere.
Ugh. Did they do this in Mississippi and Alabama, too?
Oh no you diddunt!
Yep she did. Truth and nothing but the truth.
Just as we all suspected and now proven.
He can claw his way to the convention, but at some point the numbers are going to fall off and he's going to be clawing alone.
Better to pull out and look magnanimous, than stay in and wind up looking rather pathetic.
Ron Paul will stay in too. Does Newt really want to come off looking like Ron Paul at the end of the day?
Newt's not santorum. He doesn't do things based on how they look, he does things based on his principles. One of the major differences between them.
lol..I am sorry-I know it's like visiting a real bad place..
John King said CNN exit polls showed 5-6% democrats voting in both states. That's santorum's margin over Newt right there, and then some. And the previous post said they are planning the same thing in IL.
Interesting (and incredibly discouraging). I wonder what the party affiliation breakdown was in exit polls for other states, like SC.
I have to believe the democrats will be more active in IL than in both those southern states. I think maybe SC was closed, but not sure.
You know, you really need to spend a half hour to an hour on the Internet looking up Newt’s past. The guy that you think is brilliant, is more or less a vapor trail. And the sad thing is, the information is out there in abundance. You folks come here ragging on Santorum incessantly. Okay, he’s not perfect. At least he has one thing going for him. He’s not Newt.
And BTW, what principles?
Kos and the left talk a game about mischief. They FAILED to deliver.
Yes, they did..and they want it to continue all of the way through each state. Most of our media ignores it. That site got really energized prior the Michigan and Ohio; that’s where even radio personalities were asking for their democratic party members to vote for Santorun as well. CNN has 2 stories on their site about this. They were there a few hours ago anyway...so, look at the remaining states to see the damage that they are planning on doing.
It is awful for a person to deliberate insight falsehoods. I couldn’t live that way. I got real ticked to read that they were bragging about Newt losing by a close margin in Al and MS. Santorum doesn’t even realize what is happening. Illinois, he may win as well and so on-because the turn out is so low and a few thousand votes can swing it one direction. Newt, took a (orchestrated) blow in MS Al due to this probably. They say they rather run against Rick, then Mitt just not Newt or Palin, at all. Too bad, that our side was not smart and as united to one person (Newt/my preference) Praying God steps in to get us on a good path. (That side is getting ready for Mitt or Rick in the fall..has me very worried)
Didn't we hear this about Ohio?
Santorum can't even pull delegates from all the places he might win in Illinois because of an ineptly disorganized ground campaign.
Predictably, the sainted Santorum's spit-squads will whine and complain like their golden calf.
No genuine conservative proposes and votes for a 61% half-billion dollar budget increase for Amtrak and runs a TV ad trumpeting the effort. No genuine conservative votes to confirm the woman Obama made his first choice for the Supreme Court. No conservative defends Arlen Specter against charges of liberalism, in TV ads, claiming "he's with us on the votes that matter." Votes like... ObamaCare, Rick?
The "see no evil, speak no evil, hear no evil" non-vetting by Rick's rabble is every bit as bad as Obama's zombie hoards of Hope from '08.
Romney will will by over 6 points. No chance Santorum wins. Santorum would have to winn all the delegates of this state and several other big states to overcome the delegate gap. We’re stuck with Romney.
Just a few of Newts other accomplishments, for starters; (santorums 2 books are at the very end, one he wrote for his campaign, the other a bio about himself):
After you get through with these volumes, there are several white papers, position papers, strategy protocols developed while he taught the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Warfare Strategy, one or 2 documentaries, not sure exactly, his think tank work, and several scholarly papers from biomedicine to national security. please let me know when you’d like those titles.
Gingrich has authored or co-authored 18 non-fiction books since 1982.
* The Governments Role in Solving Societal Problems, Associated Faculty Press, Incorporated. January 1982 ISBN 978-0-86733-026-7
* Window of Opportunity. Tom Doherty Associates, December 1985. ISBN 978-0-312-93923-6
* Contract with America (co-editor). Times Books, December 1994. ISBN 978-0-8129-2586-9
* Restoring the Dream. Times Books, May 1995. ISBN 978-0-8129-2666-8
* Quotations from Speaker Newt. Workman Publishing Company, Inc., July 1995. ISBN 978-0-7611-0092-8
* To Renew America. Farrar Straus & Giroux, July 1996. ISBN 978-0-06-109539-9
* Lessons Learned The Hard Way. HarperCollins Publishers, May 1998 ISBN 978-0-06-019106-1
* Presidential Determination Regarding Certification of the Thirty-Two Major Illicit Narcotics Producing and Transit Countries. DIANE Publishing Company, September 1999. ISBN 978-0-7881-3186-8
* Saving Lives and Saving Money. Alexis de Tocqueville Institution, April 2003. ISBN 978-0-9705485-4-2
* Winning the Future. Regnery Publishing, January 2005. ISBN 978-0-89526-042-0
* Rediscovering God in America: Reflections on the Role of Faith in Our Nations History and Future, Integrity Publishers, October 2006. ISBN 978-1-59145-482-3
* The Art of Transformation, with Nancy Desmond. CHT Press, November 29, 2006, ISBN 978-1-933966-00-7
* A Contract with the Earth, with Terry L. Maple. Johns Hopkins University Press, October 1, 2007. ISBN 978-0-8018-8780-2
* Real Change: From the World That Fails to the World That Works, Regnery Publishing, January 2008. ISBN 978-1-59698-053-2
* Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less: A Handbook for Slashing Gas Prices and Solving Our Energy Crisis, with Vince Haley. Regnery Publishing, September 2008 ISBN 978-1-59698-576-6
* 5 Principles for a Successful Life: From Our Family to Yours, with Jackie Gingrich Cushman, Crown Publishing Group, May 2009 ISBN 978-0-307-46232-9
* To Save America: Stopping Obamas Secular-Socialist Machine, with Joe DeSantis. Regnery Publishing, May 2010 ISBN 978-1-59698-596-4
* A Nation Like No Other: Why American Exceptionalism Matters, Regnery Publishing, June 2011 ISBN 978-1-59698-271-0
Gingrich co-wrote the following alternate history novels and series of novels with William R. Forstchen.
* 1945 Baen Books, August 1995 ISBN 978-0-671-87739-2
Civil War Series
* Gettysburg: A Novel of the Civil War Thomas Dunne Books, June 2003 ISBN 978-0-312-30935-0
* Grant Comes East Thomas Dunne Books, June 2004 ISBN 978-0-312-30937-4
* Never Call Retreat: Lee and Grant: The Final Victory Thomas Dunne Books, June 2005 ISBN 978-0-312-34298-2
* The Battle of the Crater: A Novel Thomas Dunne Books, November 2011 ISBN 978-0-312-60710-4
Pacific War Series
* Pearl Harbor: A Novel of December 8th Thomas Dunne Books, May 2007 ISBN 978-0-312-36350-5
* Days of Infamy Thomas Dunne Books, April 2008 ISBN 978-0-312-36351-2
Revolutionary War Series
* To Try Mens Souls: A Novel of George Washington and the Fight for American Freedom, October 2009, ISBN 978-0-312-59106-9
* Valley Forge: George Washington and the Crucible of Victory, November 2010, ISBN 978-0-312-59107-6
* Nine Days that Changed the World, Gingrich Productions, April 2010
# Rick Santorum (2005). It Takes a Family: Conservatism and the Common Good. Intercollegiate Studies Institute. ISBN 1-932236-29-5.
# Rick Santorum (2005). Rick Santorum. Monument Press. ISBN 0-9769668-0-8.
* Rediscovering God in America: Reflections on the Role of Faith in Our Nations History and Future, by Newt Gingrich. Integrity Publishers, October 2006. ISBN 978-1-59145-482-3
Rick Santorum doesnt have a corner on the market in believing there is a place for faith in the public square. I am pretty sure what santorum knows wouldnt make a half-chapter in Newts book. WAKE UP SANTORUM SUPPORTERS! WAKE UP!!
Santorum: Im such a conservative
Romney: Im a severe conservative
Newt: Heres what were gonna do
Pathetic is all the Sainted's soldiers goose-stepping along, thread-after-thread, demanding Newt get out. It goes back weeks and months, always banging the baggage drum on behalf of the unvetted one.
The reality is, at this juncture, it's essentially impossible to win against Romney outright, the non-Romney's can only stop him from clinching the nomination. With just 89% as many delegates as Romney among the three of them, that requires staying in because if one drops out, Romney benefits.
In my view, Newt needs to stay in because this country can ill afford the other clowns.
You are so right - it is soo hard to read at times among conservatives on a conservative forum of how many look over his voting record. I just can’t vote for him due to my convictions. I went through mental hell voting for McCain. Not again. Romney cannot be accepted at the convention. We all are going to have to keep up our protest and people need to start voting for Newt so he has more power on his side.
They’ll never pay attention to his voting record, no matter how many facts you avalanche them with. Santorum is their anointed one, so their brains have long since turned off. It’s the same creepy zombie-like behavior we saw from Obama supporters.
I am not a conspiracist, though I do have tendencies, but a friend of mine, on the ground all over in MS, on primary day, said they were sure Newt would win. He had their demographics, internal polling, county by county, newt’s turnout was high, though overall turnout was low, and Newt still lost. The Newt campaign is just as conservative and meticulous as Newt is about data, and they rarely are wrong. I didn’t get as much info about AL, but there numbers were generally very good. Till the night of the vote counting.
And in Tenn, where Newt’s state campaign chair and 2 other high tenn staffers, defected to rick the day before the vote... think about that - what could they do for Rick late in the day on the day before the vote. Newt’s TN polling had him winning, also. He never whines or bemoans this stuff, but I think the RNC and GOP are orchestrating a lot of this in certain states. A friend of mine said the TEnn campaign, headed by the santorum defectors, was inefficient and not aggressive, and did very little organizing, until the boots finally went on and did their own campaigns. My friend said his county went for Newt by 68%, and he was one of the chairs or guys, who supervised it all.
Newt is out there, and he’s got nobody helping him or making things easy for him. It must be awful. and awfully discouraging.
Wow, what a shame. This really ought to be publicized more.
ABC said dems were 10% in Michigan..I heard that other places, also.
Okay True Believer Forever, that was an interesting presentation. I have been watching interesting presentations of this nature for weeks now. So far I have been rather restrained in touching on what I have uncovered about Newt. Since even in defeat, Newt can’t quite seem to grasp that it’s over, and his supporters here are still trashing Santorum at will, I’m going to gather up things that I have become aware of and present them here.
I had hoped that you folks would take the hint and take a look around yourselves, but that seems to have been too much to ask.
I’ll be sure to link you in to what I present.
Newzjunkey, if you would spend 1/100th of the time you folks spend digging up stuff about Rick Santorum, just nosing around even a little bit about Newt, you’d begin to notice you’ve been backing a man who is nothing like what you believe him to be.
I just told True Believer Forever that I am going to develop a post about Newt and link him to it. I’ll link you in too.
Until then, take care.
Thanks. And I hope your presentation is worthwhile because, you may not know it, but Newt supporters have done their homework on Newt, to the point of distraction. We aren’t like Santorum supporters. don’t post any of the sleazy personal stuff, because santorum has a few skeletons in his closet, also. And we’ve been waiting to see how this plays out, also. Intellectual honesty, truth, balance, and context should win the day for you.
If you had any idea how “Intellectual honesty, truth, and balance” played into the creation you folks have fostered here about Newt, you’d be extremely embarrassed to have stated that.
true believer is a her... :)
Okay, I’m sorry to have referred to you as a male. Thank you.
and also hear it on talk radio when they do call in. They sound
desperate at times and speaks as though he walks on water. Some are creepy. I knew it was going happen/when they told us they were only voting for him to stop Mitt/now, they are coming out full force to get him elected or as VP-w/o proper vetting. (emotional attachment becoming stronger) I like Rush but since he praised Rick, some of his supporters are in a cult state. It is a problem now and will be in the future (only worse) No wonder the left is happy/they are in control of picking our nominee. Some of Rick's supporters they don't understand if Newt were to leave, it's over..Newt is the only reason, we are holding Mitt back and the conservative ideas are being discussed (fuel prices, foreign affairs by Newt). The media knows Newt is more than qualified; they just are so ticked that their selection Romney has to be the choice, no one else at this time (unless it falls apart/then it's Jebs). What's going on.
I would prefer as few adjectives as possible in your “presentation” keep it to facts, figures, verifiable, no anonymous sourcing, double sourcing if possible, linkies, no editing and nothing out of context.
You know what, did I tell you how to format your post? No.
What is it with you folks? This is the second attempt you’ve made to school me on what I need to do.
If you had bothered to do it, I wouldn’t have to.
Well, it’s just there is a certain quality to a lot of the stuff Santorum supporters post, most of which are void of those things I stated: intellectual honesty... etc. I apologize, I am probably making you pay for the other really nasty stuff other santorum supporters have posted. I apologize again for overreacting.
You know what, let me relate to you two specific instances I had to object to a supporter of Newt, who thought it necessary to copy a list of supposed Santorum infractions and post it here.
In that list was this...
Rick Santorum sided with “X despicable Democrat” to support a law that would eliminate the ability of abortion clinic protesters to obtain relief of debt through bankruptcy.
That means that anyone caught protesting an abortion clinic would no longer be able to file bankruptcy.
Okay, there you have it. Everyone reading this would naturally come to the conclusion that Santorum was adversarial to anti-abortion protesters. The only problem is, that charge was utterly false.
The bill had been written to prevent violent abortion clinic protesters who accrued debt due to an act of violence, from being able to avoid financial responsibility. That’s a totally different thing.
If an abortion clinic protester fired off a bomb, burned vehicles, or injured an employee, they would not be able to avoid having to make restitution by filing bankruptcy.
As a supporter of people’s right to protest peacefully, I want abortion protester’s rights protected. I do not what them to be relieved of responsibility for bombing a clinic, burning cars, or hurting someone.
I explained this mistaken aspect of his list, and the Gingrich supporter continued to post the false presentation anyway.
I explained that another charge against Santorum with a link to a bill to verify the charge, was to a totally unrelated bill. This person failed to remove this charge against Santorum as well. He didn’t fix the link either.
Over a week later, this guy was still posting the same charges, only then he wasn’t providing any links at all for verification.
Don’t even try coming here to tell me how unfair Sanotrum people are here. Clean up your side’s act, then get back to me.
Its the RNC own Fault for having these open Primaries. These Dem cross overs will vote Dem in the GE.
And in just 8 Months everyone will be on here complaining how we got played and professing it will never happen again.
I don’t think Newt is polling out of the lower double digits in Illinois.
Santorum is the only one that could stop Mitt in Illinois.
Rick has been vetted for a couple months. He gets the main focus of Romney attack ads.
But do we really know what Hillary has on Newt from those famous FBI files she commadeered? Or what Ms Pelosi has?
Nope, we don’t.
There is no way in the world I will vote for Mitt, the democrat backed candidate! (RINO first class)
Anybody but “Romney” is my motto.
In Michigan Democrat strategist Joe DiSano and liberal talk radio host Tony Trupiano organized Democrats for Santorum.
Newt told Pelosi to bring it or shut her piehole. She shut her piehole.