Skip to comments.Why Newt's Narrative Is False [Except When it's True]
Posted on 03/15/2012 4:44:42 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Newt Gingrich seems to be making decent sense, in terms of apparent logic, in saying that by staying in the race he can help rack up enough delegates to keep Mitt Romney from winning on the first ballot at the GOP national convention. Sometimes, though, that which seems to make sense does not actually work in practice. Nomination arithmetic is different from normal arithmetic. And no, I am not talking about how he alters the "impressions game" by splitting the conservative vote and thus either handing pluralities to Romney or narrowing the margins of victory for Santorum. That is a very good argument, but that's not at issue here. What I'm talking about here is exactly the sort of "delegate math" to which Gingrich claims to be appealing.
(Granted, the risk is that if Romney comes out ahead in a certain state, this math would work in reverse, in his favor -- but since he's already ahead anyway, the only way to stop him is to at least have the chance to make up the gap in larger chunks.)
In short, for all those states with rules like Alabama's, a Gingrich candidacy enables Romney to move inexorably closer to a first-ballot nomination victory. Only a Gingrich withdrawal can stop that march.
Now this is not to say whether Romney ought to be stopped or not. This is just to say that if Gingrich's goal is stopping Romney, Gingrich's continuation in the race is directly counterproductive.
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...
Each state has wildly different rules for their primaries, for the convention, for when delegates are released or how long they are committed; what are soft and what are hard delegates.
Newt has them running around in circles and into brick walls.
Love Newt and am sooooooo glad he is staying in the race!
“In short, for all those states with rules like Alabama’s, a Gingrich candidacy enables Romney to move inexorably closer to a first-ballot nomination victory. Only a Gingrich withdrawal can stop that march.”
Because his “logic” assumes my vote will just breathlessly fall to Santorum, whom I consider just as lousy of Romney?
Sorry. That’s the wonderful attitude that just assume that we all “not Clinton” votes 1996 would just magically go to Dole because All the people that voted for Reagan would naturally vote for a guy from the same party.
Newt I think would be our best chance, but I'll take Santorum over any rino priss any day!
Thanks Newt, open up an industrial strength can of Whoop Ass!
Which is exactly what he would do if he were the President. :-)
Newt’s staying in the race helps Romney.
Newt is the Ross Perot of this election.
As a former member of the good ol boy’s club of the US Congress I’m sure he does not find this as repellant as do true conservatives. He is probably already writing the book that will make him more millions in his comfortable retirement after the election
No, actually you've been played (or the GOP-e thought they could play the base).
Romney is the Ross "get under the hood" Perot - lipstick on a Massachusetts Moderate -- that was supposed to appeal to the base.
The base isn't buying it.
Then there is Rick Santorum, the guy who endorsed the "non-government" GOP-e pick (who's pulling in millions from Wall Street and K-Street) because Rick is a team player.
Then there is Rick Santorum, the guy who endorsed Romney in 2008, the 2012 "non-government" GOP-e pick (who's pulling in millions from Wall Street and K-Street) because Rick is a team player.
No Sonny it's also business--the business of saving the republic from a choice between two shades of Obama...
Really? As I understand it, it was because he wasn't a member of the "good ol' boys club" of the GOP/Congress ("Ruling Class," to use Codevilla's term) that the GOP conspired to bounce him. IIRC, Romney claims that they wanted to replace him with someone "more conservative"; what they replaced him with was Hastert (who, BTW, figures prominently in Schweizer's Throw Them All Out as making money hand over fist in Congressional "insider trading") who managed promptly to lose the GOP majority and who I don't recall as being very effective in any way. Some conservative.
On a related note, I find utterly ludicrous Romney's charge that Newt was "lobbying" for Fannie/Freddie: Dems hate Newt and establishment GOPers hate him possibly even more. Precisely what influence would he have been able to peddle with people whose response would have been "Get that SOB out of my office!"? Surely, lobbyists have to have a friendly relationship with those they're lobbying. OTOH, it's more than plausible that anyone would hire Newt for his brains, i.e., as a consultant.
So many played voters
While it would be entertaining to watch Newt debate and destroy Barry, kinda like watching the mongoose take on the cobra, Newt has shown he can't even win a primary ...if he's out, most of his “intellectual” voters go to Romney. His only voting draw is if there is no one else to vote for. Same draw as Romney. Great. So his staying in is hurting Romney unless surpise- he shows up holding his hand on the podium at the Convention.
The actual voting results are shaping up to show the real real struggle is between Romney, Wall Street's pick, and Santorum with the grassroots. I believe the obamites are still misunderestimating the grassroots or maybe are just a little bit worried at this point.
The criticisms of Santorum are meager compared to the egregious flaws in obama, but something about Santorum evokes the same visceral hate from elitists as Sarah Palin received. Another fundamentalist white bread dumbo who openly displays his faith and wasn't smart enough abort his disabled children? The grassroots seems to be seeing through it.
The GOP has moved closer to the dims model of proportionate winning of delegates with super delegates in the wings. I hate what the party has become. Conservatives so need to get focussed and united for the general. We NEED the House AND the Senate. We NEED a conservative in the WH
The stupidity of the American Electorate is overwhelming.
You've forgotten a lot apparently. And if Newt leaves the race Santorum will be dispatched in quick fashion.
FYI: Newt won S.C., GA and was 2nd in AL, MS. And when the FL rules are reviewed (and if done fairly) Newt should get many delegates from his 2nd place.
It is a four-way pool game, with each of the participants keeping score separately. While it may seem that crazy old Uncle Ron Paul is hopelessly behind, he is racking up points that nobody else, NOBODY, has a chance of attracting.
Still, he remains part of the anti-Romney vote. While by racking up more points than all the other competitors combined, Romney rarely draws much of a plurality over the others, and even slips behind from time to time in certain venues.
Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum are both battling over the same turf, with varying success. Newt is the much better extemporaneous debater, capable of marshalling and presenting facts while keeping track and demolishing the opponent’s arguments in a cogent, meaningful way, that is, if you can keep him on topic long enough.
Santorum is also someting of an extemporaneous speaker, but he tends to be didactic, like a lecturer before a crowd of sympathetic listeners, but unlikely to attract the stray crowd now outside the tent.
Mitt Romney is a testament to the power of money in elections. He can penetrate and spread his presence throughout the land, but strangely, whatever message he has is muted, whether by design, or simply because the message is just not that powerful. And there lies the problem.
The incumbent also has a very understated message, one that is being deliberately concealed, but the code words are getting out to his partisans in the urban corners of this country, to hell with anybody else. The plan is to have a Republican with an equally muted message come up as the opponent, then this trading of muted messages favors the incumbent.
A strong conservative message, with emphasis on moral principle and the virtues of clean living, would resonate in a most powerful manner with the majority, and if added to the prospect of reversing this atmosphere of artificial scarcity and destitution stalking the land, would move an easy win to the polls in November, carrying not only the White House, but a flood tide of new members to both the House and Senate.
Romney will just not take the fight to Obama, a hopelessly naive and relatively incompetent individual who has done the near-impossible - make Jimmy Carter not seem to suck nearly as much.
At this point in the 1980 election year, Reagan was some 30 points BEHIND Carter - yet we know how that election turned out. Just keep asking - are you better off now than you were four years ago? Simple question, simple message.
And yet, we cannot count on Mitt to ask that question.
Equally ludicrous that Newt supporters bash Santorum for working on “K Street” when what he was working for was to get conservatives hired into policy influencing jobs
And for endorsements, well we overlooked Sarah endorsing McCain didnt we. As if her personal payback was worth more than getting that sniveling senile goat cashiered out of the US Senate ... but lets bash Santorum who endorsed the odious Specter .... because he thought he was more likely to win, and because he thought even a nominal GOP Specter would be the better PA Senator/judicial committee member when it came to shepherding the next Supreme Court nominee through the Senate. The man miscalculated. Which I guess Sarah, Newt nor Romney never have.
Fact is, there is no knight whose armor is pure white
But there is one man on the stage who has personally walked the walk when it comes to recognizing the sanctity of life by accepting the sorrow and granting the grace of birth to a pure heart that had only moments to beat. And now another who at 3 has outlived her life expectancy
That takes a type of moral courage few politicians have and when people meet someone like that, it shows. Sarah Palin being another one of those few.
Newt is a lot more entertaining. But there is a reason he is not winning when going head to head with Santorum.
Oh, my bad, Newt didnt win one primary. He won 2.
I forgot he won SC after the sympathy vote got riled by his fatal attracton ex-wife’s memoirs.
Gingrich makes this point well, but the MSM doesn't want it aired.
Regarding Santorum, I see him winning over a lot of voters because most of them don't know enough about his record. He has cynically abandoned the economy/jobs as an issue. It is THE issue on voters' minds. He is unpredictable and out of his league. He will be torn apart.
Lots of nuggets in your post #15.
Your review of the candidates was spot on. And it became clear to me that the reason Mittens sounds the way he does is because he completely does not believe what he is saying, because those are not his core beliefs. that is why we instinctively perceive him as a used car salesman.
And this fip lopper is who we are supposed to anoint as our nominee.
Nuts to that.
You are a dishonest debater.
Here's some reading for you.
UNLIKE Rick and Mitt, Newt Gingrich didn't rest on his laurels complaining about the liberal political landscape of his state. Newt CHANGED the political landscape in GA (as he did in Washington), brought Democrats into the party, rallied people to get involved in politics -- all by pushing conservatism.
"ATLANTA It wasn't so long ago that the Republican Party in Georgia was just an afterthought, and Democrats were in firm control of all the levers of state government. Back then, Newt Gingrich and other die-hard GOP stalwarts ventured across the state with the far-fetched message that Republicans could reverse the tide.
Now with commanding majorities in the Statehouse and control of all statewide offices, Gingrich is hoping his vision for how the GOP could overcome decades of Democratic dominance in Georgia will pay dividends. He sorely needs a victory when his home state votes Tuesday, along with a big chunk of its 76 delegates, to prove his stumbling presidential bid has staying power.
Many Republican figures in Georgia still credit him with championing conservative policies, outlining a framework for what a GOP majority in the state could accomplish and broadcasting talking points to a generation of up-and-coming conservative leaders. He's also applauded for lobbying conservative Democrats, like then-Rep. Nathan Deal, to switch parties.
"Everyone else was trying to lose as slowly as possible, and to die with dignity at the Alamo. He was talking confidently that the Republican majority in Georgia, in the South and nationally was right around the corner," said Ralph Reed, a veteran Georgia GOP operative who founded the national Faith and Freedom Coalition. "On the one hand it was crazy, but on the other it was just the most exciting thing you've ever heard.".....................In Ga., Gingrich helped build conservative base
Me too and I know quite a few folks in Texas that want the opportunity to vote for Newt.
He is the only true conservative running
Sanctimonious should take one for the conservative team and drop out.
Bet you werent calling for RS to get out when he was polling in single digits. He wont stand a chance against Obama.
LOL! yes, he does have them running into brick walls. Newt is the cheerful one:)
Get back to me if and when you want to respond to what I actually posted.
Blah Blah Blahhhhh...........
Vote RINO! Vote RINO! Vote RIINNOOOOOO!!!!!
We must all band together and vote for THE MOST LIBERAL POSSIBLE CANDIDATE, think Ford, Dole, McCain etc. Otherwise the sky will fall, there will be a (shudder) “open convention” and...................
Them conservatives might take over!!
The horror! THE HORROR!!!!!
By staying in, Gingrich will probably be the king maker. He probably thinks either his oratory skills will sweep a deadlocked convention, or he’ll be the one bartering with Romney at the end. Watch what happens in Illinois. Once again Gingrich will peel off enough to clinch it for Romney just like in Ohio. Santorum has become the only realistic alternative to Romney. If he fails, it’s just a matter of watching the establishment machine grind on to its ultimate failure in November.
Must just be you.
and cheer up, you may just get the witty sincere inspiring man-of-the people Romney instead of the boring negative uninspiring Santorum
At least we could count on Santorum to get the low class white trash racist southern working womens votes (per MSNBC)
Gee no, back when Santorum was polling in single digits I was arguing with Cainiacs that Herman Cain would never be president because his most inspiring qualifications were giving entertaining speeches and being a business CEO, and the man’s true courage and character had never been vetted
(that was before all the sugar daddy stuff)
“Sanctimonious” (hello, are you from MSNBC?) is beating Newt and Romney with voters- sounds like a good reason for him to drop out
Yep. Mississippi is a mystery to me as far as why Sanrorum wone. I know many who voted Romney just to make his pick inevitable so Obama stays and teaches us how bad it can really get. I'm afraid it may backfire and not cause the uprising of the People to take the Nation back from the commies.
I would so love to have Newt be the gut and give us all a lesson on the difference between the pompous ass who's ruining the country and a conservative with brains who desperately wants to put us back on track. (Can't wait for the Rickbots to jump on the word "desperatley" and show their own sense of desperation. I hope that if they get their way, it won't bite us too bad.
You make several assertions without data to back it up. Marginalization by inference is an Alinsky tactic and unworthy of Freepers.
Newt supporters should perhaps follow the example of Mr. Robinson, and support enthusiastically your candidate without the name-calling (Sanctimonious, Sanitorium) and other ad hominem attacks. These only call to mind that Newtie the Gingrich was the only current candidate who appeared on a televised spot with Nancy Pelosi attacking property rights to core AGW.
Oh yeah, it’s mostly just you, and about 5% fewer voters than Santorum.
Having said that, the reason Newt doesn’t have a chance at the nomination is that he’s from the House. Not a chance, not any, never did, never will, not in our lifetimes. The GOP will not nominate anyone repeat ANYONE for the top spot whose only office is the US House.
We just have the wrong ex-governor in the race.
Don’t waste your emotion on this.
Honest debate would address my point, instead of tossing me banalities about how Newt “changed the political landscape of Georgia” .. Lets look at Newt’s record of steering federal spending to Cobb County GA when he was in Congress. Well-fed conservatives are always staunch conservatives.
Newt on Cap and Trade? (researched his interviews in 2007 and numerous flip flops when he started to see a personal window of opportunity for the national stage after 2009...)
Newt’s loveseat moment with Nancy, that will make a fine obama campaign ad in 2012
Now how about the Gingrich and healthcare reform? Like Cap and Trade, he was for mandates before he was against them. How about big spending? Gingrich-Kennedy health plan?
Two more words: Dede Scozzafava
Newt did not always push conservatism, except maybe when conservatism pushed Newt
I give the man props for the Contract with America back in... 1994? But he is a dead horse as a potus contender. Keep beating, though, as you choose.
Santorum is Huckabee without the charm or executive experience.
Santorum is McCain or Dole without the war record.
Sure, Rick Santorum will be president of the United States. Too many good republicans need to watch out what they are smoking. I would have a better chance. Mitt and Rick would lose by at least 10 points. If Rick is the nominee look for people like Trump to jump in. There will definitely be an independant challenge to Rick Santorum. I really hope I am wrong, but I don’t think so.
Newt is the best chance to be Obama. Yes, it is an opinion, but one that I will stand behind all the way to Tampa.
Lets talk again after Tampa!
What in the world. Your sources? Really? LOL
Still can’t touch that video ad with Pelosi, can you?
I did my own research, as you do yours
Enough from me already
the voters looking for a conservative they trust will continue to decide between Santorum and Gingrich until our inconvenient vote is negotiated away in a back room, and tossed
have a good debate with honest people
We can talk after Tampa for sure. But it would be more important to have the conversation after the General Election, one that we will have a difficult time winning. Those who think it will be easy are wrong. The president will start with about 47% of the vote. He will need to move the needle 2 to 4 points to win. Actually that is not terrible for us. Most incumbents are in better shape. Rick’s problem is he will get about 37% from fellow republicans and about 5% of people who are really feed up with Obama. He will have to move the need 7 to 9 points. It will have to be fueled with enthusiasm and his personal charisma. I don’t see it happening. More likely that he would lose about 2 points of the people that want Obama to lose. That puts him at about 40 %. It is not enough to win. I have been watching this stuff for over a half century. I have seen this one before.
TO INFINITY AND BEYOND!
~ Buzz Lightyear
Our country's charter, that ideal expressed in our Declaration of Independence and all of our Founding documents, is being stolen from us. It's happening right now, "right before our very eyes" and yet hidden in plain sight by a motivated unwillingness to say or do anything.
Every time Newt (or anyone else) shows an audience an example and then builds on it, he's in the news and has the WH dancing to it.
Otherwise, the only thing I see in the media from Newt is him telling reporters his strategy for staying in the race. Who cares? Not your average potential voter. So he's shut down and shut out.
I'm one of those potential voters and I, for the first time in my life, am truly scared of where we are definitely headed. And I'm not alone.
It's much of core Ron Paul support and it's why Newt gets the response he does when he talks about things everyone is thinking about, but no one of importance is willing to say.
We are going to get neither charm nor charisma from Romney, are we? The LDS “chosen one” has spent tens (if not hundreds) of millions over 6 years, and proves you can’t buy a personality. Or sway more than 30% of the GOP vote
So if you think charisma is the game changer, then we are toast with Romney.
Now, if the lamestream MEdia can paint Catholic Santorum as a talibani, just wait until they start on “exposing” the LDS religious beliefs. They are holding back for now.
Add in the salivating left just waiting to turn “middle class” anger against Wall Street and TARP against Romney and the striped pants set. People are so stupid and blind angry about the economy they will see Richie Rich stiff Romney as the problem, not the solution. Plus Romney has no military experience (Mass Nat’l Guard? Give me a break) and we will almost certainly have some type of crisis to make obama look presidential
obama will sleep well if Romney is nominated.
On polls showing the vote- take with a grain of salt. I think a lot of people still feel too guilty to admit they screwed up and won’t re-vote for barry, but this time they won’t vote for him or they won’t vote at all. Its the fraud vote that matters this time
” Newt is the Ross Perot of this election. “ -—
The Perot sceanario played out alright just as you say—back in the dark ages, when we were all civilized but stupid. However, it is like yesterday when all that happened and we have learned too much since then to sit on the sofa and belch out the same old air balls of “aint it awful”.
If we draw our political pistol this time we have to be prepared to use the dang thing.
This is to say that we are on our way to a political resistance “movement” this time, and it includes in our sites, the GOP-Establishment.
This divisiveness has, by the grace of God, formed a kind of solidarity among conservatives who are for different candidates with different approaches and agendas, but together we are still a force that is starting to flex its limbs to oust a Marxist and the toothless RINO Establishment who refuse month after month, year after year to resist his dismantling of our nation.
We are not going to comply and cooperate like puppets on the string’s end.
If you want to stay dutifully “in line”, to guard the old process and swallow the same old bait, spew the same tired thesis, and fall into the same old circular pattern of avoiding a solution, then you are part of the problem.
Let’s instead see if we can approach the Alamo line in the sand, so to speak, and dare to make a damn stand against the GOP-E together, and do our math.
If we can’t whip them, how in the &@!! do we intend to whip the Marxists?
We may not finish the job this cycle, but we have a chance to, and at least we shall have dared to muster.
My friend you mistake me for someone who supports Romney. I could not vote for that person under any circumstance. I could see myself voting for Rick Santorum, but it would not help. He still loses by 10 points to Obama. I am telling you he has zero cross over appeal. And yes, he will need it. Unlike Reagan he can not make his message work. It is not his stand on the issues or the message itself, he just is a poor communicator when it comes to helping those who are not naturally drawn to him understand why he is important. It is something you have or you don’t have. He ain’t got it.
I would not be happy if I lived in Virginia and had to choose between Romney and Paul and I would not be happy if I had to choose between RS and Romney..I want the priveledge of voting for Newt.
LOL, going to be tough, that one.
Speaking as a Newtorum supporter, I think Newt is right and would like him to stay in. He’s correct to observe that not every Newt vote will go to Rick.
Something’s fuzzy here alright
You said “Sanctimonious should take one for the conservative team and drop out”
Isn’t that calling to “disenfranchise” those of us who want to vote for “Sanctimonious”?
especially when “Sanctimonious” has won more primaries with more votes and gained more delegates than Newt?
As far as fuzzy math (and other fuzzy thinking)- are you counting Romney as part of “the conservative team”?
Your math on Santorum winning everything is absolutely fuzzy. You want to disenfranchise the Newt supporters so turn about is fair play.
Obama would love Newt to drop out but even if he did..his supporters are not going to all rally around Santorum.
We are half way through the states...noone should drop out. Let Newt make his case and rattle the establishment. Obama has already gone after Newt over gasoline prices and more..he doesnt bother with Santorum.
Newt has a vendetta against Romney and I don’t blame him. He is continuing to introduce his ideas and solutions. I like what Newt is saying...I dont like what RS has done or is saying.
However, since Santorum loves to take one for the team...he should get out and support Newt. Rally around the true conservative