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Newt is Right: Santorum is Better Off With Gingrich in the Race
Fox News ^ | March 15, 2012 | Chris Stirewalt

Posted on 03/15/2012 7:44:14 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

The latest FOX News poll of Republican voters supports Newt Gingrich’s strange-sounding assertion that his presence in the race is actually a benefit to rival Rick Santorum.

Gingrich casts the advantage to Santorum in a tactical sense, saying that the two of them together divide Romney’s attention and bleed the Republican frontrunner of his money. Gingrich argues that Romney’s success is attributable to negative ads and out-spending that cannot be replicated in a general election and so, therefore he should be bled and blocked so that someone else can get the nomination at the end of August.

Santorum supporters have argued that the time has long since come for Gingrich to drop out of the race so that Santorum can unite the right and defeat Romney outright before the convention.

But with Romney so far ahead on delegates, Santorum would need to win 66 percent of the remaining delegates to win, a tough task for someone who has won only 27 percent so far. Even if he had won all of the delegates Gingrich had won so far, Santorum would only have 41 percent of the total, still 12 percent behind Romney.

The poll suggests, though, that the reality of a Gingrich-less race might not even be as good as that for Santorum.

Gingrich polls at 13 percent in the latest survey, one point better than Texas Rep. Ron Paul, 19 points behind Santorum and 25 points behind frontrunner Romney.

But when asked how they would vote without Gingrich in the race, the former speaker’s supporters don’t all shift to Santorum. Out of Gingrich’s 13 percent, Santorum gets 7 percent, but Romney gets 5 percent. Paul gets a point too.

While Santorum would move up, Romney would be pushed even closer to the finish line......

(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Front Page News; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: brokeredconvention; conservatism; convention; gingrich2012; gopprimary; kenyanbornmuzzie; mittromney; newtgingrich; ricksantorum
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Anyone who tells you that they know how this is going to end if Newt doesn't get out of the race, doesn't know what they don't know.
1 posted on 03/15/2012 7:44:16 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: All
Oops! Anyone who tells you that they know how this is going to end if Newt gets out of the race, doesn't know what they don't know.
2 posted on 03/15/2012 7:45:43 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Agree with the headline.
Gingrich must stay in.


3 posted on 03/15/2012 7:51:19 AM PDT by svcw (CLEAN WATER & Education http://www.longlostsis.com/PI/MayanHelp2012.html)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

There is one logical fallacy in the article. If Santorum had the votes that went to Newt, he would not simply have the delegates Newt has won added to his own. He could have won more and likely would have. Of course, this could be argued the other direction as well.

I am not calling for Newt to drop out. That might be a mistake on my part, but I suspect his support will begin to fade. Forcing him out will only alienate more of his supporters. As wacky as things have been, do we want to drop to just one conservative?


4 posted on 03/15/2012 7:52:07 AM PDT by Ingtar
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Ive got mixed feelings about it.

If Newt does decide to get out of the race he should make a deal with Santorum. He tosses the delegates he can to Santorum in return for Santorum promising him the VP slot. However the same can be done in a contested convention.

Personally I can’t think of a better president / vice president team. Newt is strong enough that as VP he would have lots of input in a Santorum administration and he has the experience to apply the whip to congress.


5 posted on 03/15/2012 7:52:51 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: Ingtar; cripplecreek

There is no good reason for Newt to drop out now, it would only benefit the Massachusetts Moderate, leaving Mitt a clear field to take Santorum out (you will see negative attacks on Rick come out of the woodwork — and cries that he must quit like Newt “did”). And then there would only be Mitt, insufferable, pompous, unqualified Mitt Romney — the guy who’s Massachusetts environmental team and health care team are working and shaping federal policy for Barack Obama.


6 posted on 03/15/2012 8:01:09 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Right now, Santorum is facing negative attacks from Romney, Gingrich, and Paul. They seem to be helping him, especially in the South. I assume it is because both Romney’s and the Newt PAC’s ads sound just like the ones the Democrats use to attack conservatives around here.


7 posted on 03/15/2012 8:04:01 AM PDT by Ingtar
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I’m not so sure that Gingrich and Santorum aren’t already working together quietly.


8 posted on 03/15/2012 8:04:30 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Mitt would beat Rick, but Obama would beat Rick even more. That is our problem. Many of our fellow conservatives are linking themselves to a candidate that can not win.

Go Newt.


9 posted on 03/15/2012 8:06:13 AM PDT by dt57 (illerate, noobie....)
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To: cripplecreek

Newt is too old to be VP. I can’t see him accepting that.


10 posted on 03/15/2012 8:07:37 AM PDT by Maceman (Liberals' only problem with American slavery is that the slaves were privately owned.)
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To: cripplecreek

Personally I can’t think of a better president / vice president team.

Our Cheney. I think it would work too.


11 posted on 03/15/2012 8:10:39 AM PDT by sanjuanbob (Festina Lente)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
For sure it is best for Newt to say in. Romney is between a rock and a hard spot. Newt has been ATTACKED and yet he is still a viable candidate based on his policy positions and his ability to articulate them. He also remains a viable candidate because he is able to attack Obama and his policies like no other candidate can. This is why Newt has supporters that will NOT leave him. Newt is the bigger threat to Romney, and Obama.

In the event of Santorum dropping out, I believe Newt would gain in strength when Mitt and Newt are compared side by side. Mitt needs Newt out first and he is hoping that the carpet bombing and the push by the establishment/others for Newt to get out will work.

If Newt does drop out,Romney will carpet bomb Santorum and with the amount of material that is out there, Santorum will crash hard and fast. Santorum does not have the policies or communication strengths Newt has. In addition, the only reason Santorum appears to be viable is because the Dems and Ind are voting for him in an effort to screw up our primary, and because the bigger focus of all the negative stuff has been on Newt.

Santorum doesn't have a chance of beating Obama and if we hope to have someone besides Romney, a brokered convention is a must.

12 posted on 03/15/2012 8:11:54 AM PDT by LuvFreeRepublic ( (#withNewt))
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

It would seem to me that either one would have a better shot without the other. Am I missing something here? BTW, I’m not making a case against either of them.


13 posted on 03/15/2012 8:12:57 AM PDT by umgud (No Rats, No Rino's)
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To: LuvFreeRepublic

Well stated.


14 posted on 03/15/2012 8:13:48 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: All

Let’s look at this from ONLY the debate perpective

Who would you rather see debate Obama?

Santorum? (too whiney)

Romney? (too inept- “Okay c’mon I betcha $10,000 the economy is worse now. C’mon you wanna bet?”)

Gingrich? (would be akin to a blood sport)


15 posted on 03/15/2012 8:15:59 AM PDT by Mr. K (If Romney wins the primary, I am writing-in PALIN)
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To: sanjuanbob

The perfect good cop/bad cop team.

Santorum talking policy with a smile and Newt applying the whip to congress with vigor. I’d bring in John Bolton for secretary of state. A good constitutionalist attorney General is a must at this point as well. (Judge Napolitano maybe?)


16 posted on 03/15/2012 8:19:18 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

How many states do no have Santorum on their ballots? If Newt leaves the race, Mitt’s PAC will unleash hundreds of attack ads on Rick just like they/mitt did for Newt....they will destroy Rick in less than a week leaving only Mitt standing. This is not the way to elect the right person...this is personnel. Stay in Newt; fight the good fight; who says you are not the best for the country....only the left and pundits who unfortunately stand for the elites i.e., haven’t a clue as to the American people’s desires for honest and transparent government and less of that government in their daily lives. GO NEWT!!!


17 posted on 03/15/2012 8:29:33 AM PDT by yoe
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To: Mr. K

If Gingrich agreed to VP with Santorum, could Santorum delegate his VP to debate the president? Afterall, it takes more than 1 person to run the administration. I think the public would accept it.


18 posted on 03/15/2012 8:32:14 AM PDT by sanjuanbob (Festina Lente)
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To: Mr. K
"Gingrich? (would be akin to a blood sport)" Blood Sport? I like it....really like it!!!
19 posted on 03/15/2012 8:32:23 AM PDT by yoe
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Newt staying in also acts as an “insurance policy” in case something unforseen causes Rick's campaign to “tank.”

(Someone posted yesterday an article intimating there would be something coming out in the next few days that could tie Rick to the Paterno/Sandusky scandal in some way.)

Caveat: The allegation was vague and referred to Dem sources that had been credible before. No proof was offered; therefore, since the article was entirely speculative, it may well be more “dirty tricks” from the Dems, Romney campaign or others.

20 posted on 03/15/2012 8:34:11 AM PDT by Ozymandias Ghost
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To: umgud

“It would seem to me that either one would have a better shot without the other. Am I missing something here? BTW, I’m not making a case against either of them.”

The thinking goes something like this:

Neither Santorum nor Gingrich is likely to get the needed delegates at this point. The only realistic option they have (Santorum more than Gingrich) is to deny Romney as many delegates as possible. Some Santorum folks refuse to vote for Gingrich and vice versa (just look around FR for confirmation). If both stay in, conservatives can cast a ballot for their favored candidate that isn’t Romney and deny him a coronation in Tampa.

Then one can toss his delegates to the other and Romney can go home, never to be seen or heard from again. Newt despises Romney and will do anything at this point to deny him delegates. Whether or not this is a viable strategy remains to be seen.


21 posted on 03/15/2012 8:34:40 AM PDT by FerociousRabbit
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To: cripplecreek
That may be true, because Santorum lacks the skill and the gonads to put the whip to anything. His lackluster career is a clear testament to that thought.
22 posted on 03/15/2012 8:37:31 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: dt57
On what do you base your post?

Polls indicate Romney vs. Santorum very close, while Obama vs. Santorum is a tie.

Given the winner take all format which takes effect after April 1, I'm still having problems grasping how a split conservative vote hurts Romney. Does anyone actually believe that a majority of Gingrich supporters would support Romney over Santorum?

The only way I see this strategy working is if Gingrich could win a few states? If so, which ones?

23 posted on 03/15/2012 8:38:16 AM PDT by Rational Thought
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

This argument really doesn’t make much sense. Two conservatives are splitting the vote, and Mitt is profiting by that.

And since Newt hasn’t been doing very well, Mitt has concentrated his attacks on Santorum. You can see it on Drudge’s website, where there are constant photos and headlines extolling Mitt and damning Rick. They were bashing Newt earlier, but at the moment they’re pretty much ignoring him.

I’m not saying that Newt has to drop out. That’s his choice. But it is damaging the conservative position at the moment.

The essential thing is to keep Romney from getting a winning number of delegates on the first vote at the convention. But that is harder to do with the two conservatives splitting the vote.


24 posted on 03/15/2012 8:45:50 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: Ozymandias Ghost
The Dems are holding back on Santo at the moment, because they WANT him to win first. Their orchestrated crossover Santorum voting pranks in Michigan, Alabama and Miss., is just a small sample of how they are behind pushing Santo to the top.

When we are then committed, they will unload a whole lot more than the Paterno/Sandusky scandal. There is “K” Street, the stillborn 8th child, as well as many of Santorum’s corrupt dealings that awarded him the vote for “Most corrupt” Senator.

This is just the tip of the iceberg. There are volumes about him ready to come out when the time is right.

This is why I am making such a hard effort to get the facts out about Santorum, to reverse this brainless infatuation the base has with him.

25 posted on 03/15/2012 8:47:34 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: Ozymandias Ghost

>>Newt staying in also acts as an “insurance policy” in case something unforseen causes Rick’s campaign to “tank.”

This is an extremely good point, and one that is rarely considered in this debate.


26 posted on 03/15/2012 8:47:47 AM PDT by expat1000
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To: expat1000

Don’t worry, I am very keene to it! If you knew what I know about Santorum, that is a very likely possibility. It makes Newt look like an Eagle Scout!


27 posted on 03/15/2012 8:51:44 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

While he really wants the Presidency (something his detractors call “overbearing ego”), he is probably the one who cares more for the Nation than any of the others in the race. I can’t vote for Romney, but would do another “settle” for Santorum. Newt’s the only guy left I would vote for with some enthusiasm. I wonder if it would have turned out any different in MS and AL if he had, in fact, announced at least an intention to grab Perry as his Veep. Mississippi had depressingly low turnout and from atlking with folks, many feel that Romeny won’t be stopped and that if he’s the guy, they’ll vote Obama instead to try to force the People over the edge to fight for the future. I wish they had come out in bigger numbers because they all consider Newt the best chance even though they don’t see him pulling it off. I voted Newt and wish I could have voted for a bunch who didn’t show.


28 posted on 03/15/2012 8:54:16 AM PDT by trebb ("If a man will not work, he should not eat" From 2 Thes 3)
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To: Rational Thought

Those polls are next to worthless. At this point in the contest when Reagan beat Carter he was down 30 points.

I base my post on over 50 years following this stuff. I am telling ya, Rick does not have crossover appeal. He will need it in the general. Romney has crossover appeal but can not excite the base. Newt could do both.

The lack of political instinct out in the public at large is astounding. I give President Obama at least a 70 percent chance of retaining his position, as of what I see right now. The money agrees with me.

You can’t beat Obama by saying, Hey I am not Obama. You will have to beat him with ideas and conservative principles. Rick has principles but struggles with message. It is a good message delivered in a way that only a certain segment of the population understands and will respond to. Mitt is hopeless, no message and no ability to muster one. We are screwed without a brokered convention with a different candidate or Newt raising again.


29 posted on 03/15/2012 8:55:10 AM PDT by dt57 (illerate, noobie....)
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To: Cicero
The most disgusting thing about Romney is the fact that his campaign hinges on eliminating choice rather than giving us a reason to vote for him. His comments about us liking him in the general election says all I need to know about the "man".

Photobucket
30 posted on 03/15/2012 8:56:09 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: Maceman

Biden is a year older than Newt.


31 posted on 03/15/2012 8:57:29 AM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: Ozymandias Ghost; FerociousRabbit

Newt staying in also acts as an “insurance policy” in case something unforseen causes Rick’s campaign to “tank.”

If both stay in, conservatives can cast a ballot for their favored candidate that isn’t Romney and deny him a coronation in Tampa.

I have been debating whether to switch to Santorum from Newt. I think these 2 points drive home my desire to support Newt full steam. Is a brokered convention a good thing? I don’t know. Would it lead to Obama being reelected? Possibly. Would Romney being President change anything? I say no.


32 posted on 03/15/2012 8:58:24 AM PDT by taterjay
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To: trebb

IF Newt gets out whose to say he won’t support Romney?


33 posted on 03/15/2012 8:58:58 AM PDT by DIRTYSECRET
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To: DIRTYSECRET
IF Newt gets out whose to say he won’t support Romney?

Haven't you been paying attention? He is the one making an issue out of the fact that Romney needs to be stopped.

34 posted on 03/15/2012 9:13:04 AM PDT by trebb ("If a man will not work, he should not eat" From 2 Thes 3)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
“The Dems are holding back on Santo at the moment...”
______________

Concur. I expect they're doing the same w/Romney also.

Newt's been so thoroughly vetted (we're talking endoscopy here) that I doubt there is anything we don't know about him. The real problem is there is a lot of popular mythology about what Newt is BELIEVED to have done that is much worse than what he actually did.

35 posted on 03/15/2012 9:15:17 AM PDT by Ozymandias Ghost
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To: Maceman

Biden is a year older than Newt.


36 posted on 03/15/2012 9:24:32 AM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: LuvFreeRepublic

Totally agree. Just sent Newt another $100.


37 posted on 03/15/2012 9:25:18 AM PDT by I_be_tc
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To: Ingtar
If Santorum had the votes that went to Newt, he would not simply have the delegates Newt has won added to his own. He could have won more and likely would have.

I believe that in both Mississippi and Alabama any candidate that received more than 50% of the vote would have gotten ALL of the delegates. With no one getting 50% the distribution was proportional.

If Newt had not been in the race, Santorum would have easily have won more than the required 50% and received all of the delegates.....and Romney and Paul would have received none. That would have made him the overall delegate winner for the evening.

I think that all of the states which are required to award on a proportional basis by the RNC have a similar setup.

38 posted on 03/15/2012 9:25:42 AM PDT by Retired COB (Still mad about Campaign Finance Reform)
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To: dt57
.....I base my post on over 50 years following this stuff. I am telling ya, Rick does not have crossover appeal. He will need it in the general. Romney has crossover appeal but can not excite the base. Newt could do both.....

From the survey in the article:

"But when asked how they would vote without Gingrich in the race, the former speaker’s supporters don’t all shift to Santorum. Out of Gingrich’s 13 percent, Santorum gets 7 percent, but Romney gets 5 percent. Paul gets a point too."

____________________________________

Newt can coalesce all factions of the party.

39 posted on 03/15/2012 9:32:19 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Retired COB

this is correct and something people STILL refuse to see.

If what happened in MS and AL, with Romney getting a 1/3 of the delegates repeats itself across other favorable Anti-Romney states of WV, NC, KY, AR, LA, MO, TX, NE, and SD, then Romney will EASILY hit 1,144 before the convention.

I encourage everyone to go to the Green Papers website and review the rules for the remaining states and play it out. Newt staying in means 100% Romney nomination.

However, you are correct, in many of these states, the Anti-Romney gets 50% or more, they get the massive bulk of the delegates.

One thing to look for on the Calendar. April 24 is a big day. It’s got PA and NY and a bunch of NE states. If Santorum get do well delegate-wise in NY, win PA, and pull off an upset in DE, he is poised to have an OUTSTANDING May, because the states that vote in May are all in the South/Midwest and Include:

Texas, North Carolina, Arkansas, Kentucky, West Virginia, Nebraska, Indiana

It is very possible Santorum would sweep all of these states in a two-man race, which would give him the maximum amount of momentum going into final Super Tuesday on June 5 with California, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, and New Jersey. Romney would be going a month without a victory by the June 5 primaries. This should allow Santorum to pick up at least 1/3-1/2 of the delegates in CA, and make him the favorite in SD, MT, and competitive in NJ and NM. If Romney is under 1,104 at the end of June 5th, the convention will likely be brokered (UT gives Romney his 40 delegates on June 19).


40 posted on 03/15/2012 9:34:18 AM PDT by parksstp (I pick RIck! (If he's good enough for Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, he's good enough for me))
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To: trebb
...............I voted Newt and wish I could have voted for a bunch who didn’t show.

If only people knew how it is in countries where the people can't vote. The low turnout in our elections is disheartening.

41 posted on 03/15/2012 9:41:26 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: dt57
Those polls are next to worthless. At this point in the contest when Reagan beat Carter he was down 30 points.

I base my post on over 50 years following this stuff. I am telling ya, Rick does not have crossover appeal. He will need it in the general. Romney has crossover appeal but can not excite the base. Newt could do both.

The lack of political instinct out in the public at large is astounding. I give President Obama at least a 70 percent chance of retaining his position, as of what I see right now. The money agrees with me.

You can’t beat Obama by saying, Hey I am not Obama. You will have to beat him with ideas and conservative principles. Rick has principles but struggles with message. It is a good message delivered in a way that only a certain segment of the population understands and will respond to. Mitt is hopeless, no message and no ability to muster one. We are screwed without a brokered convention with a different candidate or Newt raising again.

Either this is one of the clearest, truest posts I've seen here in a very long time or we are both idiots, because I agree with every word. :-). The Obama machine will slice and dice Santorum and have a few $100 mil left over to party with. Newt - maybe yes, maybe not, but at least he has a chance to beat Obama. Probably less than 50-50, but that is way better than Rick's (and would be a better president, IMO).

42 posted on 03/15/2012 9:44:53 AM PDT by expat1000
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To: taterjay
“I think these 2 points drive home my desire to support Newt full steam.”
____________

No matter what permutations I run thru in my mind, I can't think of one where I believe that Newt staying in the race is a bad thing. By staying in Newt keeps the pressure on Romney to fight a dual front war and the more protracted the race becomes; the less viable the meme of Mitt's “inevitability” appears. That can only help Conservatives.

(According to news reports Mitt had a meeting w/his major financiers after losing Alabama and Mississippi because his campaign now feels they need another major cash infusion in order to win what they believe will be a long, drawn out campaign. I think cracks are already beginning to occur within Mitt's financial foundation.)

43 posted on 03/15/2012 9:48:28 AM PDT by Ozymandias Ghost
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
"But when asked how they would vote without Gingrich in the race, the former speaker’s supporters don’t all shift to Santorum. Out of Gingrich’s 13 percent, Santorum gets 7 percent, but Romney gets 5 percent. Paul gets a point too."

Because many don't believe Rick can beat Obama, but do think Romney has a crack at it, and they want, above all, to get Obama out.

44 posted on 03/15/2012 9:49:46 AM PDT by expat1000
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Inside information indicates that Paul has cut a deal with Romney for his Delegates. At the moment, this is a rumor, but if that were to happen. Romney would take it.

Add a little known fact, called SUPER Delegates, who unanimously favor Romney, you have another 20% advantage of the Delegate count in Romney's favor.

Considering the above, at this point, Romney would have to lose everything from here on out by at least 40 points for Santorum to catch him. So Newt is right, if he drops out, he will drive Romney to a win by June.

45 posted on 03/15/2012 9:54:01 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: FerociousRabbit

Thanks


46 posted on 03/15/2012 9:55:36 AM PDT by umgud (No Rats, No Rino's)
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To: dt57

RCP Obama vs Gingrich - Obama +13.7%
RCP Obama vs Santorum - Obama +8.7%

So, since Santorum will be beaten by Obama, we should pick Gingrich?


47 posted on 03/15/2012 10:12:11 AM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: Ozymandias Ghost

I read this morn about the NCAA tourney. The ultimate champ only has to win 6 more games. It doesn’t matter that Kentucky or Syracuse are inevitable. It does not matter what Western Kentucky has done all season all they have to do is win. For conservatives to take out Obama, first Myth must be defeated. The electorate will decide in the last 60 days who the one on one winner with Obama will be. So, pick the conservative of your choice in the near term, Rick or Newt.


48 posted on 03/15/2012 10:20:07 AM PDT by taterjay
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To: CharlesWayneCT

Do you believe if Gingrich became the nominee, that those would be the numbers?

And if they were, do you honestly believe Obama has such an edge?


49 posted on 03/15/2012 10:23:25 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: parksstp

The problem is that, with the current dynamic, Romney will win the nomination. The strategy to “keep him from winning” isn’t likely to succeed, because as he gets closer and it’s clear nobody else can actually win, and if the race stays static, the general population of GOP voters will drift toward the “inevitable winner” Romney, giving him larger and larger victories.

Something needs to change the dynamic. If say Gingrich dropped out, there would be a shift toward Santorum. He would then do a LOT better in the next contests. It would be THAT difference, with Santorum actually winning a couple of states decisively, that would then make that general GOP electorate say — hey, maybe Santorum is the guy we want to drift toward.

Thus, instead of Romney getting the “whatever” votes, Santorum gets them, as his polling numbers shoot up and Romney stays at 30%.

See, people keep assuming that if Romney stays at 35% he’ll collect enough to win, but the point is that he benefits from being the “frontrunner”, and if we had weeks go by where Santorum took more delegates than Romney week after week, and was winning 50+% of the vote, and Romney was “mired” at 35-40%, people would just switch to Santorum.

The same might be true for Gingrich; I don’t think so, because that was what was HAPPENING with South Carolina, but he collapsed after that, and I don’t see him getting a 2nd chance.

Some people say Santorum got a 2nd chance, but he didn’t. He won Iowa, but he wasn’t polling 1st nationally when he did so, Iowa was simply a one-off win because of his camping in Iowa. It wasn’t until Newt fell apart in Florida and Nevada that people jumped to Santorum. But they haven’t left him, he’s still essentially tied with Romney nationally, and now has a longer time period in that position then ANY of the other candidates who briefly held that slot.

Elections are fluid, and move with public perception, and I don’t see the general Republican electorate liking the perception of a “we just want to stop Romney and leave things confused in the convention”. What they DO want is a not-Romney who looks like they COULD win if people just decided he could win.

Meaning there are a LOT of voters sitting in their houses, and they are thinking “Santorum looks like he might win, I will vote for him instead of Romney”. Once we have enough people thinking that, Santorum WILL win.

I would rather have had Gingrich be this person, back in January. He so looked like it for a little while, but even with Santorum doing nothing in Florida, Gingrich simply couldn’t hold up under the attacks. Santorum has done much better in that regard, getting plastered 5-1 in Michigan, and 12-1 in Ohio, and yet he’s still winning races, even in 3-way contests in the south with Gingrich splitting large amounts of the conservative vote.


50 posted on 03/15/2012 10:28:16 AM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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